The Latest from Iran (22 November): Abtahi Freed on Bail, Ahmadinejad Scrambles

NEW Iran: Maziar Bahari on His 118 Days in Detention
Video and English Text: Mousavi Interview with Kalemeh (21 November)
The Latest from Iran (21 November): Mousavi, Khomeini, and Ahmadinejad

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2125 GMT: Activists on Twitter are reporting the arrest of blogger/journalist Sasan Aghaei.

1940 GMT: Karroubi's Latest Letter. Mehdi Karroubi has written to Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie and Habib-allah Askaroladi, the secretary general of the conservative Mo'talefe party, posting the letter on his Tagheer website.

The letter is a renewal of Karroubi's campaign for the truth on reports of abuse of detainees, responding to the attempts of Mohseni-Ejeie and Askaroladi to cast doubt on his claims and motives. He repeats his earlier account of meetings with the three-member judiciary panel that was appointed to consider the charges. In particular, he states that, while he raised the case of Saeedeh Pouraghai but warned that it might be false. (The claims that Pouraghai had been raped and killed by security forces are now discounted. Some believe the case was "manufactured" by the regime so it would discredit the opposition when the falsehood emerged.)

Karroubi also challenges Askaroladi's claims that the Green movement is financed by millions of dollars from the US Government and demands that Mousavi and Karroubi "must be dealt with".

1740 GMT: The Visits Begin. Former President Mohammad Khatami has visited Mohammad Ali Abtahi in his home.

1625 GMT: Rumour of Day "Mortazavi in Evin Prison". Norooz claims that Saeed Mortazavi, who was Tehran's Prosecutor General in the early part of the post-election crisis, has been spotted in prison garb at Evin Prison. The website claims that Mortazavi has not been seen in public in two months and raises the possibility that he will disappear via "suicide", just like Kahrizak prison doctor Ramin Pourandarjan. (Norooz also sees parallels with the case of Said Emami, the intelligence operative and deputy minister found dead in his cell a decade ago. He was blamed for a series of murders after his death.)

1610 GMT: Abtahi Freed. The picture of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi provides happy confirmation of his release on bail after 160 days in detention (see 0735 and1405 GMT).



Abtahi has also posted on his blog. He says he will soon return to updating the blog on a daily basis. He hopes for the freedom of his fellow inmates, especially Abdollah Ramezanzadeh and Mohsen Safai-Farahani, to whom he bade a tearful farewell this morning.

1525 GMT: Economic Pressure. Following up our initial item this morning on the pressures on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (0735 GMT), Presidential candidate and secretary of the Expediency Council, Mohsen Rezaei , has criticised the President's proposed legislation on subsidies and taxes. “As a result of the new law, the effect of the global economy on the domestic economy will be more than before,” Rezaei wrote to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

Rezaei suggested the formation of an independent council of financial experts to study the impact of the bill on the lives of Iranians.

1520 GMT: Today's University Protests. There has been chatter throughout the day of clashes between students and security at Khaje Nasir University, and a short video has been posted of the demonstration at Tehran University.

1505 GMT: More Tehran Signals on the Nuke Deal. Ali Ashar Soltanieh, Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, has reiterated his comments (see 0955 GMT) about Iran's desire to negotiate an enrichment deal, provided it keeps uranium within the country. “We are ready for talks with a positive approach, but the main issue is a guarantee for the timely supply of fuel for Iran's medical needs." Soltanieh referred to Iran's grievances with France and Russia over delays and failures to fulfil previous contracts: “Considering Iran's lack of confidence towards the West regarding the past nuclear activities, we need to have these guarantees."

1405 GMT: Abtahi Update. Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was sentenced to a six-year prison term yesterday (see 0735 GMT), has been released on a bail of 700 million tomans (about $700,000) while the sentence is appealed.

1035 GMT: The Election was Most Fair. Really. Fars News offers acres of space to Ali Zakani, a member of the six-member Parliamentary committee that "investigated" the Presidential election, to defend the outcome and the committee's proceedings.

Zakani details meetings with Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohsen Rezaei and with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. All of this is to establish that the election was fair and to indicate that any "fraud" is on the part of those challenging President Ahmadinejad's legitimacy.

0955 GMT: The Government Wants a Nuclear Deal. Can't be a clearer signal than this:

Iran's ambassador to the UN nuclear watchdog [International Atomic Energy Agency] says over 200 hospitals in the country urgently need higher-enriched uranium. As a timely reminder that obtaining higher-enriched uranium is a matter of great urgency for Iran, Ali-Asghar Soltaniyeh said that the fuel is required for the Tehran nuclear reactor, which is designed to produce radioisotopes used by Iranian hospitals for medical treatment.

He warned that if Iran's proposal to purchase the fuel from abroad falls through, the country would have no choice but to enrich uranium to the required level of 20 percent...."We need the fuel because more than 200 hospitals depend on it."

o935 GMT: A Clerical Putsch? We held off on noting this story, but as a sharp-eyed EA reader has raised it.... Rooz Online summarises reports circulating in Iran:

Following the escalation of protests by Iran’s senior ayatollahs against the regime, some members of the Qom Seminary Teachers Association (the most important organization of clerics affiliated with the regime) are planning to present a new list of “grand ayatollahs” under the supervision of Mohammad Yazdi, Ahmad Jannati and Mesbah Yazdi....

According to rumors, the new list of grand ayatollahs will include people such as Jafar Sobhani, Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, Khoshvaght, and a number of other ayatollahs approved by the regime. Credible reports indicate that prominent grand ayatollahs such as Montazeri and [Bayat] Zanjani will not have a place on the list....[Nor will] Dastgheib.

I still think the key word in the story is "rumors". The significance of the article is that it shows the concern of the regime and its supporters over the ongoing (and possibly escalating) resistance from Qom. A radical change to the list of Grand Ayatollahs, especially when it is clearly based on political rather than religious considerations, is likely to stoke that resistance.

0740 GMT: A depressing end to Saturday for the opposition movement, as Mowj-e-Sabz claimed that former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi has been sentenced to six years in prison. Abtahi, as one of the highest-profile detainees, was seen by the Government as a potential asset for propaganda. His televised "confession" was one of the low-lights of the first Tehran trial, and the regime even tried (briefly) to have Abtahi blog from prison to offset criticisms about the conditions of detainees.

Now it appears that the Government has given up on that use of Abtahi, and it has also decided that the advantage lies in keeping him in jail rather than extending a hand to the reformists through his release.

0735 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has always cut a confident, even cocky figure. And when challenged, he fights back.

So it's no surprise that the President would "go big" with a tour covering five days in five countries: Brazil, Venezuela, and Bolivia in South America and Senega land Gambia in Africa. He can finally project himself as a world leader, having been shut out by almost every head of state in the first three months after the disputed election. He can play on the assured support of Venezuela for Iran's nuclear programme and foreign policy. He can present Iran's expanding influence with the African leg of the trip. And no doubt there will be more than a few words on oil and natural gas, as well as the signing of commercial agreements.

Don't let this fool you, however. Ahmadinejad's travels are also a deliberate distraction from the homefront. For all the questions over the future course of the opposition, for all the "busted flush" of the National Unity Plan, the President has not been able to nail down a secure position.

The photographs of Ahmadinejad's visit to Tabriz are more than symbolic. Whether or not most Iranians support the Green movement, they are not turning out in the 63% claimed by the President in the June vote. The conservative/principlist politicians are rumbling again in Parliament, especially over Ahmadinejad's economic proposals, and the clerics in Qom are discussing and planning.

The President returns from his journey at the end of November. At that point, it will be just over a week to the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December).

Iran Document: Ayatollah Montazeri's Interview on Eve of 13 Aban

The Latest from Iran (5 November): Riding the Wave?

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Posted on Mowj-e-Sabz and then translated by Khordaad88. See also the analysis by EA reader "Iran Unfiltered":

Honorable Grand Ayatollah Montazeri,

With Regards,

We hope you are in great health. We are from the Website Green Wave of Freedom and would like to take some of your precious time for some questions regarding the historic day of 13th of Aban [November 4th]. We believe your answers can be a solution to the current situation in the country and would certainly be welcomed by our readers and anyone who is interested. We thank you in helping us in this regard. Questions are attached and we hope to hear from you.

With highest regard and gratitude,

The Editor in Chief of Green Wave of Freedom

Question 1: In your writings you have regarded the seizure of the American Embassy in 1980 by the Student Followers of Imam as a mistake. However you supported their actions in that time. What was the reason for your support? Why do you regard it as a mistake now?

Question 2: What is your opinion on Iranian-American relations? Is the continuation of this current curtailment [of relations] in the interest of the country?

Question 3: In the current situation where Russia and China have replaced the U.S. and Europe in the politics and economy of Iran, how are they to be treated? Is this kind of relationship in the interest of the country and the Revolution?

Question 4: Considering the situation after the presidential election where the government lost its legitimacy, is the Iranian-American negotiation a negotiation with dignity or one from a position of weakness?

Question 5: What is the meaning of anti-imperialism? Does it mean defending [one's country] against imperialism or does it mean being at war with imperialist forces? Since international law is accepted by most nations around the world what would the concept of anti-imperialism mean in this situation?

————————-

In the Name of God, The Compassionate the Merciful

With regards and gratitude for your enthusiasm towards the important current events of the country,

Response to question 1)

The seizure of the America Embassy in the beginning of the Revolution, which was supported by most of Revolutionary classes of people and the late Imam Khomeini, was also supported by me. However, due to the negative consequences and the excessive sensitivity that this has provoked amongst the American people which still exists today, it is evident that this was a mistake. Needless to say, an embassy of a country is a part of that country. Thus, a seizure of an embassy of a country with whom we are not officially at war with is regarded as a declaration of war and not a correct thing to do. From what I know, some of the revolutionaries and responsible youth that were in charge of the acts admit that this was a mistake.

Response to question 2)

America was behind the 1953 coup against the late Dr. Mossadegh and behind the return of the Shah. After the coup, America dominated the politics and economics of the country. They defended and supported the former regime and blocked the Iranian assets after the Revolution. In general they did not have an appropriate approach toward the Revolution.

As a result, people were angry with America and the students seized the American embassy and U.S. cut its relations with Iran. Consequently, the late Imam Khomeini ruled against new relations with America. It is obvious that this ruling is temporary and would change according to political and economic circumstances. However, this relationship should be a relationship of two independent countries and should be in our interest.

If national interest calls for relations with America, tensions and distrust must not be aggravated by empty slogans. It is obvious that Israel and its lobby in America have been and will be completely against the Iranian-American relationship and find their interests in the continuation of the current crisis between America and Iran. It is unfortunate that statesmen of the country do not pay attention to this fact.

3) If the arrangements are such that the Iranian government finds itself dependent on the east (China and Russia) in its political and economic affairs, the Iranians would end up serving the benefits of the eastern powers instead of themselves. This is against the "no dependency on the west or the east" slogans of the revolution that our people had insisted on.

What is this difference between the Russians and the Americans that leads us to trust the former so much that we endlessly provide them with large sums of taxpayers money, but we are not even ready to talk and negotiate with the latter? Even if we feel that such negotiations would be to the benefit of our country and this nation.

4) It is obvious that with the crisis that the government created after that "magnificent" election [of 12 June], it cannot negotiate with the powerful governments of the world from a strong position. As such, it would make new decisions every day that contradict its older stance. This will ultimately end in harm to the country and the people. The strength of the establishment would not come from silencing and oppressing the people; instead it is the real and willing support of the people that gives strength to the government.

I believe that, in a wise and calculated decision, the government can immediately free all the political prisoners, free all the press, and strip away the prejudices of government institutions and universities. It can replace this with a hiring process that looks at those who are capable and deserve their positions. With such a revolutionary and pious decision, the government can return the lost authority of the establishment. It is through this [solution] that the establishment can negotiate with the powerful nations with power and authority.

5) Fighting imperialism does not mean that we declare war on countries. This would only make them sensitive and us secluded. Instead it means that we defend the rights of our nation against the greedy and ravenous desires of imperialists. In this regards there is no difference between the east and west. Imperialist people may not be power-hungry totalitarians.

A government that keeps its people unsatisfied, oppresses and desecrates rights of people, and imprisons a large group of educated scholars and political activists with unknown accusations cannot claim to be in a struggle against the imperialists and imperialism. Without attending to public dissent to gain the support of people, without revival of the rights of all classes and freedom of the journalists and media, fighting imperialism is impossible and impractical. It is with such a national support that the government can stand strongly against imposed foreign demands and respond appropriately.

In the end, I ask the great and almighty God for your success, and I pray for the honor and dignity of the great people of Iran.

12 Aban 1388 (November 3, 2009)

Hossein-Ali Montazeri