The Latest from Iran (17 November): An Obama-Ahmadinejad Alliance?

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Protests of Ehsan Fattahian's Execution (16 November)
NEW The Bomb, The Bomb: Distorting the Latest Report on Iran's Nuclear Programme
NEW The Iran Cul-de-Sac: 4 Points on Obama’s Embrace of Ahmadinejad (and Rejection of the Green Movement)
Iran Document: The International Atomic Energy Agency Report on Nuclear Facilities
The Latest from Iran (16 November): Catching Up

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1925 GMT: On a Positive Note (see 1855 GMT). The Public Broadcasting Service documentary, "Death in Tehran", on the shooting of Neda Agha Soltan airs at 8 p.m., Eastern Standard Time in the US (0100 GMT). It has been developed and filmed in conjunction with the good folks at Tehran Bureau.

1915 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami, speaking to Tehran University students, has called for reform of Iran's election laws and condemned violent government policies. He maintained that the “Iranian movement” cannot be suppressed by “fear":

This movement is a deep and widespread movement....The people of Iran want freedom; they want financial, economic, social and political security and because they have suffered through despotism, they want to be masters of their destiny.

1855 GMT: Worst Iran Coverage of the Day. From The New York Times review of a Public Broadcasting Service TV documentary on the death of Neda Agha Soltan:

“A Death in Tehran,” Tuesday’s “Frontline” [documentary] on PBS, is dismaying not just because it deals with a life ended in its prime. It also makes us realize just how quickly the protest movement vanished from the headlines. A part of the world that seemed on the verge of grass-roots-generated change now looks as if it’s back to business as usual.

Vanished from which headlines? Perhaps those of newspapers who are under the delusion that all is "back to business as usual" in Iran?

1850 GMT: The Convictions So Far. Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reports that five people have been sentenced to death and 81 have received jail terms of up to 15 years in connection with post-election protests.



1840 GMT: The Iranian Parliament has confirmed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s nominees for the Ministries of Welfare and Social Security (Sadegh Mahsuli), Education (Hamid-Reza Haji Babai), and Power (Majid Namjoo).

The votes complete Ahmadinejad's Cabinet; the Parliament rejected his original appointees for the three ministries last month.

1810 GMT: New Trials. Back from an afternoon of teaching to catch up with today's trials of French student Clotilde Reiss and Iranian economist and journalist Saeed Laylaz. Al Jazeera has a video report.

1315 GMT: Widening Engagement. We've said for months that the US need for support in Afghanistan was one factor propelling the extension of the "unclenched fist" to Tehran. We have even suggested that there were quiet, back-channel talks between the US and Iran on the matter.

So this statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, speaking in New Delhi: "In responding to the current Obama and US administration messages asking Iran's help in dealing with the problem in Afghanistan, we have defined the new approach....We are hopeful of taking some steps in this regard."

1125 GMT: The Death of the Prison Doctor. Another revelation in the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the 26-year-old physician at Kahrizak Prison, who supposedly died of a heart attack or stroke (see yesterday's updates). Shortly before he died, Pourandarjan had told a Parliamentary committee of abuses of detainees at Kahrizak.

1120 GMT: We've posted video of the Tehran University demonstration protesting the 11 November execution of Ehsan Fattahian.

1055 GMT: More Leaking & Sabotage. Now I can't keep up. The Times of London benefits from a leak with a different slant: "UN nuclear chief in secret talks with Iran over deal to end sanctions".

The mission of IAEA head Mohammad El Baradei for a compromise agreement isn't exactly "secret", since we have revealed --- from the very non-secret Press TV --- that El Baradei was proposing Turkey as the third country in an Iran-Russia uranium enrichment plan and that the Iranian establishment is split over the suggestion. What makes The Times story distinctive is that the newspaper was handed a 13-page IAEA document outlining El Baradei's approach. In addition to the third-party enrichment scheme, Iran would also be a participant in a globally-managed nuclear fuel bank.

And who else has put forward that notion of a nuclear fuel bank? Step up, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

1050 GMT: Counter-Spin. And in the opposition corner from The New York Times on the IAEA report on Iran, it's the Iranian Ambassador to the IAEA, Ali-Asghar Soltanieh:

The latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei proved that political hype and propaganda about Fordo plant were baseless. The report confirmed that no centrifuges had been introduced into the facility and that no nuclear material had been used in it.

1035 GMT: And from Montazeri: Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, has replied to a letter from the mother of a detained senior member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front:

The situation which has happened for the country is very regretful.....Calling peaceful demonstration of people a 'riot' does not solve anything. There is only one acceptable legal solution and that is returning from the path of mistake and making up for it. Freeing the political prisoners is the first step that the officials must do immediately and even preventing the freedom of innocent people for one hour is a major sin.

1025 GMT: And With Sane'i.... Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i told members of the Islamic Association of Art School on Sunday:

The increase and exacerbation of problems does not point to the domination and rule of oppression but rather is a sign of weakness....Be certain the efforts and suffering of the people, especially the academics, will be fruitful....Lying is the characteristic of oppressors, when they see they are losing ground they turn to lying and rely on lies....Increased pressure is a sign of weakness; arresting, imprisoning, and torturing are signs of weakness.

1010 GMT: Catching Up With Karroubi.... Mehdi Karroubi visited Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, who suffered a heart attack last month, in hospital yesterday. Before his illness, Bayat-Zanjani had been a strident critic of the Ahmadinejad Government.

Earlier Karroubi had spoken to reformist members of Parliament, advising youth to "avoid the violent acts which is what certain movements would want to happen....Don’t let some sick individuals provoke people to radical behaviours and as always keep rationality and humanity as the role model for the Green movement."

0925 GMT: Whipping Up the Fear. Following our updates yesterday on the initial exaggerations of the IAEA's report on Iran's nuclear programmes, we have a snap analysis of the misleading media coverage, fed by sources trying to "break" the talks with Tehran, drawing on this morning's treatment in The New York Times.

USA Today drops by to offer us further evidence: "U.N. report: Iran nuke site apt for bombs, not power".

0915 GMT: The Public Finger-Wagging. The Obama Administration's engagement strategy depends on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad overcoming domestic opposition to a nuclear deal, and Obama has to keep his own opposition at bay. So the US President issued a boiler-plate warning this morning during his press conference with Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao: "Iran has an opportunity to present and demonstrate its peaceful intentions, but if it fails to take this opportunity, there will be consequences."

0900 GMT: We're back in place after an excellent seminar in Dublin in "Blogging in Iran" with our partners at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin. To mark the occasion (and match the headline), we've posted what we hope will be an important evaluation --- based on inside information and open sources --- of the Obama Administration's current policy on Iran.

We're also following the latest developments surrounding Iran's nuclear programme, building on the text of the International Atomic Energy Agency's report on Iranian facilities.

The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping

NEW Iran: Question for the Regime "What's Your Next Punch?"
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

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2240 GMT: Confirmation that Ebrahim Amini, of the Etemade Melli party and a close relative of Mehdi Karroubi, has also been released from detention.

2150 GMT: Dr. Ali Tajernia, former MP and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released after 140 days in detention.

2145 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran has a Farsi-language update on detainees, including the transfer of 95 people arrested on 13 Aban from detention centres to Evin Prison.

2140 GMT: After the arrest of two students of Khaje Nasir University in Tehran, classmates went on hunger strike in front of the cafeteria and chanted, “Allahu Akhbar [God is Great]".

2130 GMT: Confirming indications we had received from EA sources in recent weeks, the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ezatullah Zarghami as head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for five years.

Zarghami had been considered vulnerable because of regime dissatisfaction with IRIB's output before and after the Presidential election, but a suitable replacement could not be arranged. Khamenei indicated this with a call for Zarghami to "take advantage of successful or unsuccessful experiences of the past five years to help this medium reach a better quality".

2125 GMT: Iran's Internal Nuclear Dispute. Press TV's website is now featuring the anti-talks line taken by high-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi (see 0845 GMT).



1648 GMT: Back-Channel US-Iran Talks? An EA reader has picked up what may be a significant unnoticed story in the nuclear negotiations. Peykeiran claims that President Ahmadinejad's close advisor and chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has secretly met Hooshang Amirahmadi, a US-based academic and the President of the American Iranian Council, in a villa in Gilan Province in northern Iran.

It is unclear why Amirahmadi is representing the Obama Administration and, if so, what message he could be conveying about the discussions on uranium enrichment. If true, however, the meeting would be a clear sign of a split between Ahmadinejad and high-profile conservatives/principlists calling for the deal to be abandoned.

1640 GMT: On the Los Angeles Times' blog "Babylon & Beyond", Borzou Daragahi has highlighted, "Defying supreme leader, reformist Khatami continues to question election" (see 1200, 1400, & 1418 GMT). It will be interesting to see if the Times prints this in Sunday's newspaper, maintaining a focus on Iran after 13 Aban.

One interesting note: Jamaran, where Khatami's remarks first appeared, is owned by the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

1620 GMT: Farhad Pouladi, the Iranian reporter for Agence France Presse detained on 13 Aban, has been freed.

1418 GMT: More on Khatami's Statement (see 1200 GMT). The former President has declared, “Senior authorities should accept that there is a crisis in the country" and allow all views to be expressed freely. He added, "We should find out who are ignoring the law for their own benefit, and those are the ones that should not be at centre of power."

Khatami continued his challenge to the Government as a defence of the true nature of the Islamic Republic:

If we truly return to the rule of law and those who are the guardians of the law don’t interpret the law based on their own personal views and don’t ignore the constitution,...[then the constitution will be the most important reference point. that can create unity in our society despite all the different views

We are still standing firm on our positions....In the Islamic Republic just as we defend Islam we are also defending people’s rights and votes. Those who are ignoring people’s votes and are willing to change them, are strangers to the Revolution and the Islamic Republic.

1408 GMT: And Now the Big News. We wrote earlier this morning that the regime seemed adrift and uncertain in how to respond to 13 Aban, but "tonight the President could try to change all the calculations above with an address to the nation".

Well, he won't because Ahmadinejad's speech tonight is postponed. This may be explained by the sudden announcement that the President is going to Turkey tomorrow (to discuss a re-arranged enrichment deal? --- see 0935 GMT), but pending a major breakthrough on that front, I'm going to read this as confirmation that the Government is a bit more than lost at the moment. This is the second postponement of the speech since Thursday's rallies.

1400 GMT: Regrouping Indeed. Former President Khatami is not just reasserting himself with statements questioning the election and the legitimacy of the Government (see 1200 GMT). He also met Mehdi Karroubi last night in his home.

Nominally, Khatami expressed sorrow and comforted Karroubi about the violence during the 13 Aban rallies, as did Abdollah Nouri, the interior minister in Khatami’s administration, and Bagher Golpaygani , son of the late Grand Ayatollah Golpaygani. But who is to say that other topics were not discussed?

1350 GMT: This is Important, but Why? I'm not sure what to make of this news yet, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has traveled to Najaf in Iraq to meet Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and other Shi'a clerics.

No clue yet as to topic of discussions. Earlier in the crisis, Sistani and his son had been in talks with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and Iranian clerics who have been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government. So is Larijani seeking support from Sistani and Iraq-based Ayatollahs to bolster the Government? Or the Supreme Leader? Or the position of the Supreme Leader against Ahmadinejad?

1340 GMT: Iranian activist "PersianBanoo" is updating with latest news on arrests from the 13 Aban protests.

1200 GMT: Khatami Rises. We have noted this week that the former President Mohammad Khatami has been relatively quiet, limiting himself to a general statement yesterday when he visited Karroubi  advisor Morteza Alviri.

Well, Khatami is back with a flourish today, declaring that the biggest "crime" of the current regime is its detachment from the values of the Revolution. And, despite warnings from the Supreme Leader, Khatami has renewed his criticism of the Presidential election.

1150 GMT: The Effect of Subsidy Cuts. Borzou Daragahi reports, from a source in Tehran, that bread prices in the capital have more than doubled.

0950 GMT: We've split off our first update today as a separate analysis, "Question for the Regime: What's Your Next Punch?"

0935 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal On? High-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi may be declaring the enrichment deal dead (see 0845 GMT), but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, is claiming that a compromise may have been found. He told Bloomberg News that Turkey could replace France as the third country involved, shaping the Iranium uranium enriched by Russia into metal plates.

So, is El Baradei just putting out desperate ideas to save the deal or, given that Press TV is featuring his comments, is there a section of the Iranian Government that is still committed to discussions?

0930 GMT: Really, Only 109? Azizollah Rajabzadeh, the head of Tehran police, has said, "Police arrested 109 people who created disorder and disturbed public order and security on the sideline of the rally on Wednesday. Some 62 of the detainees were jailed and the rest were released."

Of course, that number does not include those detained outside Tehran, but it's still a distance from the 400+ reported by Iranian human rights groups. So, presuming that Rajabzadeh has kept the number low, does that indicate: 1) the regime does not want to admit to the scale of the detentions, which would point to the real size of the rallies? 2) the regime is trying to show it was not that repressive, cutting against the image of the "velvet fist" it has been displaying? 3) nobody within the Government is in control of how to handle the outcome of 13 Aban?

0855 GMT: A "Correct" Press TV. We noted that, late on the night of 13 Aban and early the following day, someone at Press TV was putting out stories highlighting the opposition protests rather than those for the Government.

No more. This morning, Press TV's website has a story, "Iran Frees Three Detained Foreigners". We had that news yesterday; what is more significant is the framing of the article: "On Wednesday tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets as part of an annual event to mark the storming of the American embassy in Tehran more than three decades ago."

So that's where the "foreigners" were arrested? Well, it must be, since Press TV --- in contrast to its earlier coverage --- dares not mention the Green rallies that were taking place elsewhere in the capital and throughout Iran.

0845 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal Off? Iranian Students News Agency is featuring a comment by the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, “Iran is not to give any of its 1200 kilograms fuel to the other party to receive 20 percent (enriched) fuel and whether gradually or at once, this will not be done and is called off.” Boroujerdi insisted that Iran must and would find another way to get uranium, "Mr [Ali Asghar] Soltanieh [Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency] is in talks to find an approach for the issue.”

Boroujerdi's burying of the Vienna deal for Russia to enrich Iran's uranium follows his speech introducing Friday Prayers, in which he denounced protesters for mouthing the words of the Voice of America.

The Latest from Iran (3 November): 8 Hours to Go

NEW Latest Iran Video: Rooftop “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (3 November)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Protests at Iranian Universities (3 November)
NEW Iran: A Response to “What If the Green Movement Isn’t Ours?” (The Sequel)
Latest Iran Video: Protest & Hunger Strike at Sharif University
Iran: A Response to an American Who Asks, “What if the Green Movement Isn’t ‘Ours’?
Iran: More 13 Aban Videos
Latest from Iran (2 November): The World Takes Notice?

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2200 GMT: And So To Tomorrow. We're going to pull down the curtain for a few hours, but please keep bringing in news and comments. Back at 0600 GMT for what should be quite a big day, indeed.

2115 GMT: An Embassy Apology (see 1730 GMT). Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has said that, “considering the negative effects and heightened sensitivity” it produced amongst Americans, the takeover of the US Embassy in 1979 was a “mistaken” act.

Montazeri said the seizure, which led to the holding of 52 American hostages for 444 days, was akin to “declaring war on that country” and claimed that even “some of the revolutionary and committed youth, who were instrumental in that act at the time, now believe that it was a mistake".

2050 GMT: Did You Write This with a Straight Face? Mehr News' English-language site offers a classic one-eye-shut view of events: "Call for massive turnout on Aban 13 rallies".

Here are the groups calling for that turnout: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Navy branch (“Iran’s great nation, especially students [should] commemorate the day and foil the plot of the enemies of the Islamic Revolution"), Moderation and Development Party, Islamic Association of Teachers, Ministry of Defense, Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom ("vigilance of nation against the enemies’ attempts to undermine this epical day"), Iran's judiciary (“national unity, solidarity, obedience of the Supreme Leader, and resistance against hegemonic powers’ plots [will mark] the beginning of the downfall of the US").

Gee, anyone missing from that list? You know, any other groups that may have been today, all day, throughout the day in these updates?

2040 GMT: Homy Lafayette has posted routes of the marches in Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Shiraz, Ahvaz, and Bushehr.

2035 GMT: More videos from universities in Iran --- Ferdowsi and Sajad in Mashaad in the east, Mazandaran in the north.

1950 GMT: Getting Louder. We've got video of tonight's "Allahu Akhbar" chants from Tehran rooftops.

1830 GMT: An EA source sends us the news that Ali Pir-Hosseinloo, a translator and book editor, blogger, and member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been freed from jail after spending 50 days in solitary confinement.

1805 GMT: Yet another video of protest at another Iran university. This one is from Yasouj University in southwestern Iran.

1745 GMT: Did We Mention 13 Aban is Tomorrow? The Washington Post puts out a story on today's speech by the Supreme Leader (see 1030 and 1230 GMT), "Iran's Khamenei rejects U.S. outreach, warns against talks". The authors, Thomas Erdbrink and William Branigan, pays much attention to the "harshest comments against the Obama administration to date" but never once considers that they may have some connection to the internal situation as well as the discussions on the nuclear programme.

Number of words in article: 1135
Number of references to 13 Aban protests: 0

1730 GMT: Fact and Rumor. Having had a go at Borzou Daragahi poorly-timed misrepresentation of the Green movement in the Los Angeles Times (see separate entry), it's only fair that we cast a critical eye on a story trying to boost the opposition.

In The Daily Telegraph, Damien McElroy and Ahmad Vahdat proclaim, "Iran Opposition to Apologise to US for Embassy Siege". Now, as our readers' comments suggest, people may fervently wish that is true, but there is a bit difference between wishing and reality.

The story is based on a single source: "Mohsen Makhmalbaf, an exiled film-maker who spearheads the opposition campaign overseas, said Iranians should repudiate the events of 1979, when a group of pro-regime agitators took over the US embassy and held diplomats and other occupants."

Makhmalbaf has been a high-profile, vocal proponent of the Green movement throughout this crisis but in no way is he a spokesman for the policies and plans of Iranian opposition groups. His desire for an overturn of the 1979 actions is not equivalent to a Green manifesto.

I fear that, once more, the problem is that non-Iranian media reduce Iranian actions and ideas to "what have you done for the US lately?". While it may be desirable to find reconciliation over the past, there is a lot more to be considered in the present.

1645 GMT: And an Important Assurance. The reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, adding to its call for participation in 13 Aban protests (see 0630 GMT) has warned of rumours that there will be violent action against foreign embassies, with the Green movement then accused of the attacks. The MIR stressed that the Green Wave is a civil, peaceful, and anti-violence movement and and warned followers not to fall for these traps and disinformation.

1630 GMT: Another Declaration for 13 Aban (see 0630 GMT). Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat, the main reformist Student Alumni Organisation, has announced, “We will participate in the celebration against the internal tyranny and dictatorship.” The organisation declares that students, as sons and daughters of Iran, have always been at the forefront of fight for democracy and against oppression, and 4 November will be another chapter in this historic effort (English summary).

1505 GMT: Rooz Online has further details on our earlier report (see 1025 GMT) that members of the One Million Signatures for Gender Equality campaign have been summoned to the Revolutionary Court.

1500 GMT: Tip of the Iceberg. We've posted a clip from today's protest at Kashan University, south of Tehran.

An EA source tells us, however, that our reports and videos are only a small part of what is occurring. In Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashaad, university students are demonstrating.

1230 GMT: We've posted the first video footage we've received of today's university protests, coming from Azad University in Tehran.

1210 GMT: Khamenei Says, "Wouldn't You Rather Say Death to America?" The more I read about the Supreme Leader's speech to students today, the less it appears as an intervention in the nuclear talks and the more it feels like a rather clumsy attempt to channel protest against Washington, rather than having those students come out against the Government.

On the surface, Khamenei was acknowledging the "beautiful words" of President Obama to ask if they carried any meaning: “The Islamic Republic of Iran decided from the very beginning not to prejudge and to instead consider the slogan of 'change'. But what we have witnessed in practice during this period of time has been in contradiction with the remarks that have been made."

However, the warning that "Americans talk of negotiations" while "they continue to threaten and say the negotiations must have our desired results or we will take (punitive) measures" seems to carry a significance beyond the recent Vienna discussions and framework agreement: it's no coincidence that tomorrow's "official" 13 Aban rally is in front of the former US Embassy.

1200 GMT: So Much for a Quiet Day. I had thought that, with anticipation of tomorrow's events, all might be in a state of political suspense today.

Fat chance. In addition to the Khamenei speech (see 1030 GMT), which we still have to interpret, President Ahmadinejad has made an extraordinary intervention behind his Government's proposals to reduce subsidies, replacing them with cash handouts for poorest Iranians.

Ahmadinejad showed up at the Parliament, unannounced, to give a five-minute speech defending his proposals. The appearance brought loud protests, with members complained to the Speaker, Ali Larijani, about the "unconstitutional behavior". When Larijani declared the complaints valid, Ahmadinejad threatened to withdraw his economic reforms. This caused further chaos in the chamber.

1125 GMT: Laying Down The Line --- The "Proper" March. Tehran's police force has announced that the "proper" 13 Aban rally, markking the 30th anniversary of the US Embassy takeover, would be held in front of the building. It added that holding any other demonstrations in Tehran is “illegal": "The police will strongly confront people or groups intending to create unrest and unlawful behavior, based on its legal responsibilities."

1030 GMT: Khamenei --- Targeting Nuke Talks or Protesters? Agence France Presse, from Iran state media, reports on the Supreme Leader's speech on the eve of 13 Aban. It focuses on the nuclear talks, quoting Khamenei, "We do not want any negotiation, the result of which is pre-determined by the United States. A dialogue like this is like a sheep and wolf relation, which the late imam (Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini) has said that we 'do not want'."

Now is that a direct challenge to engagement or is a not-so-coded attempt to link internal opposition to the foreign enemy, less than 24 hours before mass rallies? You decide: Khamenei warned he would not allow people with "ill-intentions" towards Iran to "throw out a red carpet for the United States".

1025 GMT: An EA source informs us of a mass summons, by phone and in writing, of women activists to the Security Branch of the Revolutionary Courts. So far five activists --- Maryam Malek, Jelve Javaheri, Kave Mozzafari, Parisa Kakaee, and Khadijeh Moghaddam -- have reported that they have received written summons on 21 October to appear in court within three days. Six other members have reported that they have been contacted by telephone and are awaiting summons.

1015 GMT: The Public Prosecutor's Office in Tehran is calling for public "consciousness" of the significance of 13 Aban --- read a warning to protestors not to show up and an admonition to others to be on guard against trouble-makers --- as a "national day against global arrogance".

0930 GMT: Reuters has picked up on the call of Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, for the release of women detained during the post-election crisis.

0925 GMT: For the second time in less than 24 hours, I have written about an article in a US newspaper which, in my  opinion, undermines the Green movement in the service of misplaced priorities. This time my concern has been provoked by a piece by Borzou Daragahi in the Los Angeles Times.

0810 GMT: Noticing Politics, Noticing Tomorrow. The international media will be in Afghanistan overload today, but Michael Slackman of The New York Times puts out a useful analysis, "Iran’s Politics Stand in the Way of a Nuclear Deal". Slackman's takeaway, based on interview with his US-based pool of analysts, is, "[Iran's eqivocation] may be as much a product of the nation’s smoldering political crisis as it is a negotiating tactic."

0630 GMT: At this time tomorrow, people will be gathering at various points in Tehran and other Iranian cities for the ceremonies of 13 Aban and for demonstrations. A day which the regime has marked as the anniversary of the takeover of the US Embassy in 1979 by students is likely to take on a very different political symbolism.

Initial news today is of preparations for the gathering. Campaign 88, the youth supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohammad Khatami, has invited the Green nation of Iran to participate in the rallies. The statement offers a nice transition from past struggles against foreign powers to current internal issues: 13 Azad has been the symbol of fighting against tyranny and oppression in the political history of our countrybut the campaign is now influenced by the movements against tyranny closer to home. The campaign declares that Mousavi will be participating and call on all members to make the tyrants and oppressors hear the cry for freedom of Iranians.

The Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, declaring it will be participating in the rallies alongside other Green reformists, said the history of the past 200 years of Iran chows this fact that domestic tyrants who are hopeless and do not have the support of the people inevitably seek backing from foreigners. If the principle in foreign relations is the national interest, a government that has legitimacy and the support of the people will fulfill this responsibility. Reformists will seek “comprehensive execution of the constitution and the institutionalisation of the rights and freedoms mentioned" in that document.