The Latest from Iran (7 November): Regrouping

NEW Iran: Question for the Regime "What's Your Next Punch?"
NEW Latest Iran Video: More from 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

2240 GMT: Confirmation that Ebrahim Amini, of the Etemade Melli party and a close relative of Mehdi Karroubi, has also been released from detention.

2150 GMT: Dr. Ali Tajernia, former MP and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released after 140 days in detention.

2145 GMT: Human Rights Activists in Iran has a Farsi-language update on detainees, including the transfer of 95 people arrested on 13 Aban from detention centres to Evin Prison.

2140 GMT: After the arrest of two students of Khaje Nasir University in Tehran, classmates went on hunger strike in front of the cafeteria and chanted, “Allahu Akhbar [God is Great]".

2130 GMT: Confirming indications we had received from EA sources in recent weeks, the Supreme Leader has reinstated Ezatullah Zarghami as head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting for five years.

Zarghami had been considered vulnerable because of regime dissatisfaction with IRIB's output before and after the Presidential election, but a suitable replacement could not be arranged. Khamenei indicated this with a call for Zarghami to "take advantage of successful or unsuccessful experiences of the past five years to help this medium reach a better quality".

2125 GMT: Iran's Internal Nuclear Dispute. Press TV's website is now featuring the anti-talks line taken by high-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi (see 0845 GMT).



1648 GMT: Back-Channel US-Iran Talks? An EA reader has picked up what may be a significant unnoticed story in the nuclear negotiations. Peykeiran claims that President Ahmadinejad's close advisor and chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has secretly met Hooshang Amirahmadi, a US-based academic and the President of the American Iranian Council, in a villa in Gilan Province in northern Iran.

It is unclear why Amirahmadi is representing the Obama Administration and, if so, what message he could be conveying about the discussions on uranium enrichment. If true, however, the meeting would be a clear sign of a split between Ahmadinejad and high-profile conservatives/principlists calling for the deal to be abandoned.

1640 GMT: On the Los Angeles Times' blog "Babylon & Beyond", Borzou Daragahi has highlighted, "Defying supreme leader, reformist Khatami continues to question election" (see 1200, 1400, & 1418 GMT). It will be interesting to see if the Times prints this in Sunday's newspaper, maintaining a focus on Iran after 13 Aban.

One interesting note: Jamaran, where Khatami's remarks first appeared, is owned by the family of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

1620 GMT: Farhad Pouladi, the Iranian reporter for Agence France Presse detained on 13 Aban, has been freed.

1418 GMT: More on Khatami's Statement (see 1200 GMT). The former President has declared, “Senior authorities should accept that there is a crisis in the country" and allow all views to be expressed freely. He added, "We should find out who are ignoring the law for their own benefit, and those are the ones that should not be at centre of power."

Khatami continued his challenge to the Government as a defence of the true nature of the Islamic Republic:

If we truly return to the rule of law and those who are the guardians of the law don’t interpret the law based on their own personal views and don’t ignore the constitution,...[then the constitution will be the most important reference point. that can create unity in our society despite all the different views

We are still standing firm on our positions....In the Islamic Republic just as we defend Islam we are also defending people’s rights and votes. Those who are ignoring people’s votes and are willing to change them, are strangers to the Revolution and the Islamic Republic.

1408 GMT: And Now the Big News. We wrote earlier this morning that the regime seemed adrift and uncertain in how to respond to 13 Aban, but "tonight the President could try to change all the calculations above with an address to the nation".

Well, he won't because Ahmadinejad's speech tonight is postponed. This may be explained by the sudden announcement that the President is going to Turkey tomorrow (to discuss a re-arranged enrichment deal? --- see 0935 GMT), but pending a major breakthrough on that front, I'm going to read this as confirmation that the Government is a bit more than lost at the moment. This is the second postponement of the speech since Thursday's rallies.

1400 GMT: Regrouping Indeed. Former President Khatami is not just reasserting himself with statements questioning the election and the legitimacy of the Government (see 1200 GMT). He also met Mehdi Karroubi last night in his home.

Nominally, Khatami expressed sorrow and comforted Karroubi about the violence during the 13 Aban rallies, as did Abdollah Nouri, the interior minister in Khatami’s administration, and Bagher Golpaygani , son of the late Grand Ayatollah Golpaygani. But who is to say that other topics were not discussed?

1350 GMT: This is Important, but Why? I'm not sure what to make of this news yet, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has traveled to Najaf in Iraq to meet Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and other Shi'a clerics.

No clue yet as to topic of discussions. Earlier in the crisis, Sistani and his son had been in talks with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and Iranian clerics who have been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government. So is Larijani seeking support from Sistani and Iraq-based Ayatollahs to bolster the Government? Or the Supreme Leader? Or the position of the Supreme Leader against Ahmadinejad?

1340 GMT: Iranian activist "PersianBanoo" is updating with latest news on arrests from the 13 Aban protests.

1200 GMT: Khatami Rises. We have noted this week that the former President Mohammad Khatami has been relatively quiet, limiting himself to a general statement yesterday when he visited Karroubi  advisor Morteza Alviri.

Well, Khatami is back with a flourish today, declaring that the biggest "crime" of the current regime is its detachment from the values of the Revolution. And, despite warnings from the Supreme Leader, Khatami has renewed his criticism of the Presidential election.

1150 GMT: The Effect of Subsidy Cuts. Borzou Daragahi reports, from a source in Tehran, that bread prices in the capital have more than doubled.

0950 GMT: We've split off our first update today as a separate analysis, "Question for the Regime: What's Your Next Punch?"

0935 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal On? High-profile MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi may be declaring the enrichment deal dead (see 0845 GMT), but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, is claiming that a compromise may have been found. He told Bloomberg News that Turkey could replace France as the third country involved, shaping the Iranium uranium enriched by Russia into metal plates.

So, is El Baradei just putting out desperate ideas to save the deal or, given that Press TV is featuring his comments, is there a section of the Iranian Government that is still committed to discussions?

0930 GMT: Really, Only 109? Azizollah Rajabzadeh, the head of Tehran police, has said, "Police arrested 109 people who created disorder and disturbed public order and security on the sideline of the rally on Wednesday. Some 62 of the detainees were jailed and the rest were released."

Of course, that number does not include those detained outside Tehran, but it's still a distance from the 400+ reported by Iranian human rights groups. So, presuming that Rajabzadeh has kept the number low, does that indicate: 1) the regime does not want to admit to the scale of the detentions, which would point to the real size of the rallies? 2) the regime is trying to show it was not that repressive, cutting against the image of the "velvet fist" it has been displaying? 3) nobody within the Government is in control of how to handle the outcome of 13 Aban?

0855 GMT: A "Correct" Press TV. We noted that, late on the night of 13 Aban and early the following day, someone at Press TV was putting out stories highlighting the opposition protests rather than those for the Government.

No more. This morning, Press TV's website has a story, "Iran Frees Three Detained Foreigners". We had that news yesterday; what is more significant is the framing of the article: "On Wednesday tens of thousands of Iranians took to the streets as part of an annual event to mark the storming of the American embassy in Tehran more than three decades ago."

So that's where the "foreigners" were arrested? Well, it must be, since Press TV --- in contrast to its earlier coverage --- dares not mention the Green rallies that were taking place elsewhere in the capital and throughout Iran.

0845 GMT: Is the Nuclear Deal Off? Iranian Students News Agency is featuring a comment by the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, “Iran is not to give any of its 1200 kilograms fuel to the other party to receive 20 percent (enriched) fuel and whether gradually or at once, this will not be done and is called off.” Boroujerdi insisted that Iran must and would find another way to get uranium, "Mr [Ali Asghar] Soltanieh [Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency] is in talks to find an approach for the issue.”

Boroujerdi's burying of the Vienna deal for Russia to enrich Iran's uranium follows his speech introducing Friday Prayers, in which he denounced protesters for mouthing the words of the Voice of America.

Comments

[Anhtony]

Seen this? http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/1109/Former_US_diplomat_hostage_in_Tehran_takes_up_Iran_post_at_State_.html

[florence achard]

12.00 GMT: "Well, Khatami is back with a flourish today, declaring that the biggest “crime” of the current regime is its detachment from the values of the Revolution"
I think Iranians are fed up of the values of the revolution; they have been fed more than enough of them for 30 years!
Khatami is not in phase with the protesters; he is trying to bring the people back within the "framework of islam blah blah blah..."
I wonder to what extent these so-called opponents are manipulated (with their consent?) by the government: they are used as an illusion of opposition to allow people to air their dissatisfaction with the regime without ever intending to really change it and also for outsiders to think that there is some sort of democracy in Iran after all.

Scott,
Why do you never really question their (I mean Khatami's, Karroubi's, Mousavi,s) aims, their stategy?

[Doug]

There are so many things unsaid. There seem to be no "values" left. Everyone seems driven into hypocrisy. No one is able to tell the truth. But if only a Mother of the revolution could speak a word perhaps:
   A Mother Speaks Out
In mourning,
this morning
between the orange sunrise
and the blue of infinity
I see the green waving at me
a rolling dawn daunting,
flaunting the promises,
many days to rain
to dry the face
running through the streets of mourning, and
trying to face the night alone

Something this night is too bright
a light saturates my being
with a horrible gnosis
but I listen in awe
to illuminated silence

How will I tell
what everyone knows
about the silence
where an essence exists

I am swollen with sad joy
and veracity must be born

I seem near term
to let be heard the cry
of freedom, a new child.

How will I tell
what everyone knows?

I would ask my brother
who is of higher rank
to speak for me
but he is dead

My elder son
has marched, been raped in jail
but he is mute, broken,
trembling, hurt, and ashamed
in bed all day crying, "Mommy," and
I can not comfort him.

I will tell
what everyone knows:

There's an evil godless man
who's been running our Iran
and we're running by the Sea of Green
to reach the hand of God

[ange paris]

Doug
Très Beau ! bravo

[Doug]

ange paris,
Thank you very much. I wasn't sure if I could get away with being so vague. I originally wanted to put in specific details, names, places, but it was too messy. I threw together and combined some scrap notes. I'm glad you liked it.

[Arshama]

Merci, Florence, for your question!

As to the uranium deal, Ayandeh and BBC report on a secret meeting between Rahim Mashaie and American envoyee Houshang Amir-Ahmadi at a villa in Gilan:
http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=8979
If AN really is trying to double-cross his beloved SL, he will certainly fail. By the way, Alaeddin Boroujerdi visited Germany in March and met with Wolfgang Schaeuble, now minister of finance, and other German officials: http://www.iranbotschaft.de/ger/borujerdi.htm

[Scott Lucas]

Florence,

I think the priority for EA's correspondents at this point is to set out developments and try to establish the aims and strategy of the leaders whom you mention. In my opinion, EA readers are doing a very effective job in analysing and debating that strategy, for example, in the current debate over the movement's approach after 13 Aban.

S.

[Josh Mull]

Larijani's visit to Najaf may be unrelated to the crisis in Iran. There is a lot of parliamentary maneuvering going on in the lead up to Iraq's elections, most of all in the Shia coalitions in which Larijani has some weight. It is important, but maybe not so much to Iran.

[ange paris]

Perhaps I am so optimistic but I think, if Larijani has gone to visit Ayatollah Sistani recently, it's to ask him some advise , how to resolve this crisis inside the country and he will be told to remove firstly AN; it's why he's not "ALLOWED" to speak to iranian people, tonight ; thus we will have a very big change as soon as and a substitute governement till the new elections !!!

[Samuel]

florence achard,

"Khatami is not in phase with the protesters; he is trying to bring the people back within the “framework of islam blah blah blah…”

Excellent point. Khatami is a liar and a fraud.

[Bill Davit]

Samuel and Florence,

Excellent question and often one I have worried about. I do believe people like Khtamai and Rasfanjani are using the reform movement for their own agendas. I am not convinced Mossavi is and definitely not Karroubi. I personally believe the movement is creating the Iranian version of "gorbachev" out of Moussavi and especially Karroubi. I also believe the movement is starting to detach itself from its leaders primarily because they are being denied access to them by the government. In essence this has forced the reform movement to decentralize which I think is a wise move. Its a wise move because it does not leave a clear target for the regime. Going forward Moussavi and Karroubi will be more like spokesman or the "face" of the movement with the real decisions being made by others. Not neccesarily their choice but one based out neccesity because of the restrictions placed on them. Its a little difficult to lead when restricted to ones house and even when you make it out your guranteed to be attacked by regime forces.

It will be real interesing to see how it plays out.

Thx
bill

[pessimist]

Antony

That old film is awesome but I hope someone gives a full translation. It's like, well a pearl out of history.

Samuel I luv ya, you're the only person here who is the mirror of what outsiders can relate to, as so much is hidden from non speaking farsi. I'm sure you're quite a nice guy really, you're just doing your job so that it keeps the debate going, and you are right on many points (I duck from handballs from some members), as, from what I can understand with google translations, many folks over there are saying what you say.. greens are too weak and slow, they are saying like they want to storm Evin prison, they are getting really angry... hey, maybe you should be getting your exit visa...

As for the nuclear thing, it's getting better than FBI or Miami TV series.. we wait for the next episode :-)

[pessimist]

Except that we don't know who is the producer, the screen writer, just the distributor.

[Barry Ward]

"Boroujerdi insisted that Iran must and would find another way to get uranium"

Is it just my imagination or have others noticed that statements coming out of Iran just lately, have been a little more concerned with obtaining further enriched uranium from outside the country - rather than the usual defiance that enrichment will continue inside Iran.

Is it just a different slant on things - or HAS the Iranian enrichment technology hit a technical hitch or some other difficulty. I have read mention of some kind of contamination in what they have produced.

Barry

[Samuel]

HERE COMES THE PRINCE!!! That's right his Royal Highness, the Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, is now giving the Greenies advice. He emphasizes that "what happens must be the will of the people." Wow he is just like his father and grandfather both long commited to the will of the people. I can't wait to see Pahlavi in his brand new Green Shirt pledging his devotion to the Green Wave. How long before Pahlavi starts parroting Khatami proclaiming his own loyalty to the true Iranian Revolution:

"Those who are ignoring people’s votes and are willing to change them, are strangers to the Revolution and the Islamic Republic".

And of course he wouldn't be his father's son if he didn't proclaim his concern and devotion to the Zionist state: "We have a window of opportunity", he said, adding that for people in Israel this was a "matter of life and death".

Come on Greenies make Master Obama and the little Prince honorary Greenies.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hcokOejhxDVVwYQLsZVJSEEwyPxg

Shah's son backs civil disobedience in Iran
(AFP) – 18 hours ago

LONDON — Iran's former crown prince backed a campaign of "civil disobedience and non-violence" Saturday to oust the government in Tehran and urged Western support, but warned against any armed intervention.

"The end of the apartheid regime in South Africa, of military juntas in South America, of the former Soviet Union -- all of it came at the hands of the people of those nations themselves," Reza Pahlavi told the Daily Telegraph.

"None of this could have happened without foreign support, but that is not the same as an occupying army that comes in and changes a regime -- I don't see how that can ever be legitimate."

The son of the late shah added: "Change must come to Iran by civil disobedience and non-violence, I stress that. We can't have change at any cost... what happens must be the will of the people."

Pahlavi left Iran a year before his father, shah Mohammad Reza, was ousted in the 1979 Islamic revolution, and has lived in the United States since 1984.

As more protests were held this week on the streets of Tehran, he told the Telegraph that "the ingredients for change have reached almost boiling point, despite the attempts of the regime to crack down".

And he argued that internal pressure was the only kind that would work on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over Iran's nuclear programme, which Western powers fear is aimed at creating nuclear weapons, something Tehran denies.

"The threat from their own people is the only leverage that will matter, on the nuclear issue especially, much more so than endless rounds of failing diplomacy," Pahlavi said.

However, he said the international community must show their support for the protesters challenging Ahmadinejad's regime.

"If they are holding up signs in English on the streets of Tehran it is not to practice their language skills, it is obviously meant for the outside world," he said.

If this support is not forthcoming, "we may as well run up the white flag on the nuclear threat. We have a window of opportunity", he said, adding that for people in Israel this was a "matter of life and death".

He said that if UN sanctions could not be agreed, multilateral penalties should be imposed, adding: "We need smart sanctions to weaken the regime and its apparatus" without harming the people of Iran.

[florence achard]

well IMHO Reza Pahlavi's declarations are very decent and intelligent; that must be what bothers Samuel.