Friday
Nov272009
Iran: Where Now for the Green Wave(s)? The EA Discussion
Friday, November 27, 2009 at 7:31 
Yesterday an EA reader sent me this thoughtful and challenging comment:I would like to point out what seems to be an oversight/flaw in your general understanding of the Green movement. By all counts, the vast majority of Iranians who have been out on the streets and questioning the legitimacy of [President] Ahmadi[nejad] and his cohorts, have no sympathy for Mousavi and "his" Green movement.
Iran: Where Now for the Green Wave(s)? A Discussion on (Non)-Violence
They are more being driven by their own frustrations, hopelessness and overwhelming desire to bring change. It is not likely that in any open contest, if given the choice, the majority of Iranians would be in support of the continuation of the Iranian regime as an Islamic Republic with its flawed constitution--the main refrain of [Mir Hossein] Mousavi and [Mohammad] Khatami is that there is nothing wrong with the Islamic Revolution, it is simply the deviation from the path of [Imam] Khomeini that is a problem.
So by focusing on, for example, whether [Ataollah] Mohajerani, [Mohsen] Sazegara or [Mohsen] Makhmalbaf (all figures tainted in the minds of many Iranians for their support of the regime who have only come to the party because there friends are now out of power and they would like to change that, you are missing the point about the magnitude of anger with the regime and all of its supporters over the past 30 years.
The loss inflicted by the Islamic Republic on Iran and Iranians is unfathomable for non-Iranians. The movement in Iran (which is not Green) is a manifestation of 30 years of pain and represents a demand for fundamental change. It would be a huge shame if that change is ultimately represented by Mousavi, Sazegara, Makhbalbaf and their friends....
This was my immediate response:
If you read between the lines, I think you may see our evolving thought that those at the grassroots and prominent figures such as Mousavi should no longer be conflated (I agree fully that --- being on a learning curve here --- we have made that conflation). At the same time, I think our sense has been that there is a synergy of pressure brought by the different aspects, i.e., if a Karroubi or Mousavi made a public move, that might energise the mass movement (and, conversely, that protest such as that on 30 July or Qods Days could bolster the challenge of those figures).
What recent weeks have raised, I think, is the question of whether the challenge still rests on that synergy, as I sense a disillusionment with Mousavi's inability to be visible on occasions such as 13 Aban and his recent manoeuvres and with Khatami's rather vague comments, accompanied by Karroubi's growing caution. How does the mass movement organise itself to maintain a lasting challenge?
My thought --- strictly as an outsider, I have to add --- is that your comment does not necessarily lead to a separation of the grassroots from the political figures. Another EA reader just posted, "The Iranian people were still shouting [their] names during their protests." I do wonder now, however, if waiting for leadership --- given not only specific issues about the figures you mention but the wider political environment in Iran --- means Waiting for Godot.
So, as the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December) approach but, more importantly, as the movement passes that marker and six months of resistance, I wonder again, "How now to organise?"
An hour after I drafted this response, another contributing twist: Agh Bahman, via Pedestrian's blog, has put together the thoughts of activists about the strategy for 16 Azar. The immediate concern of "Flowers for Bullets", the strategy advocated by recently-released detainee Emad Bahavar: how to maintain a peaceful and effective Green protest?
We've posted those thoughts in a separate entry.
Reader Comments (11)
International media attention for the Greens: Dutch news television program Nova broadcasted an interview with Mehdi Karoubi on thursday 26th November.
http://player.omroep.nl/?aflID=10341630
It is the second of three items, so you have to scroll to the middle.
Other topic: November 26th the hejab protest should start. Can't find any news about it on the internet. Somebody does? Please give me some link. Thanks.
Talking about Karroubi - I have just read this below at http://persian2english.wordpress.com/2009/11/26/basij-forces-attack-karoubis-residence-in-qom/
"Although the police showed good cooperation with Karoubi’s body guard team, at 1:00 a.m. about 60 Basij militia gathered in front of Karoubi’s residence and shouted insulting remarks against him for a few hours. This behaviour terrorized residents and neighbours. The militia finally left the area due to the cold weather and police intervention."
I am interested in the last sentence re. "police intervention"
Barry
This news about the gathering of Basiji in front of Karoubi's house is also mentioned at the end of the Dutch broadcast. The item about Karoubi starts at 13:35 Sorry it is all in Dutch, but the interview is in Farsi
After all these uncertainities and personality discussions, for me rise the questions on all published ideas underlied by movements observation:
Are the representatives of actual Iran brutality power really the clericals, SL, Ayatollahs and Mullahs contra or apart Ahmadinejad?
OR: Isn't there actually a majority of military leadership, apart IRGC, Basij and SEPAH.. just using any political leader figure (like Ahmadinejad) fitting to these militarists for deploying their arrogant governmental and society revolvement into in future even stronger totalitarian regime, pulling back from any religious theocratical system into a militant junta ("Islamic" named only for searching the neo-con's public acceptance)? Who has real analytic work done?
Where are the answers and consequent actions for a free Iran?
@ Barry
I admit to have been too far away from Iran for years, but usually regular police forces (criminal police etc.) have remained true to their duty to guarantee public security (in its original meaning) for Iranian citizens. This original core of police forces has constantly been ruled out by all "revolutionary" forces during the past 30 years, but it is still there and existing.
The same goes for all other realms of Iranian administration, where many honest civil servants have managed to survive constant reshufflings within these years. Being forced to conceal their denegation of all administrative or political distortions, they do not appear in official records or news, but they do exist. Economic advisors publicly criticizing AN's ruinous economic policies are a good example to that.
Iranian society remains a riddle to all Western commentators, who believe it to be a solid and uniform aligned ideological block. Reality is much more complicated and deserves more scrutiny for real social conditions.
"By all counts, the vast majority of Iranians who have been out on the streets and questioning the legitimacy of [President] Ahmadi[nejad] and his cohorts, have no sympathy for Mousavi and “his” Green movement."
I very much have an issue with statements like that. Yes, the "movement" at large is certainly not homogeneous, but who is to say what the "majority" does or doesn't support? That's just Ahmadinejad speaking, in a different costume.
I am best friends/friends/acquaintances with dozens of student activists who not only admire Mousavi, but it even sometimes unfortunately goes beyond that to a point of worship. Not many of those however.
Yes, the movement is composed of various forces, but look at the most well-known student activists from the Islamic Association to Tahkim Vahdat, these are btw those who've paid the heaviest price in the past few months. And they are pretty aligned with Mousavi and Karoubi as are their members.
So yes, the movement at large is anything but coherent. But Mousavi still has a large base, especially among the youth and to misread that is a miscalculation.
You could however, argue how much longer that will remain.
These are the same "youth" who sang "down with Khatami" during his last visit to the University of Tehran. I was there for that too. I bet neither Khatami or the student ever saw that day coming when he could go there triumphantly year after year. This is one point that the pro-government speakers who are harassing universities every week with their speeches keep reminding the students.
Personally I see this as evidence that the movement is evolving. All the points above are correct it is just that the each reflect a different view on events. I believe the movement has evolved because of the pain of the past 30 years, the movement being cut off from their leaders, and because of manipulation by the coup leaders. One point I do strongly agree with is the fact that many with the Green movement have moved beyond supporting the core values of the revolution. While the leaders may present a picuture of supporting it the evidence on the street is that the rank and file are starting to distance themselves from the values of revolution. Why? I think it is simply as the posters indicated, the pain inflicted upon society. The forced Hijab, treatment of Bahai's, frequent purges in education/government insitutions, continual oppression of students over the years(ie student protests 1999), and open censorship of news outlets. To sum it up the green movement appears to be a culmination of this "angst" over the years. They are tired of not being listened to. The election was just the catalyst that caused it to morph into what we may term incorrectly in the West as a "uniform" movement. The reality is the Green movement is a gathering of the disaffected marshalling their resources to affect change for all parties involved. They are now demanding to be heard. Ironically the regime gave the movement them greatest gift of all a rigged election. This gave them all the cause they needed. The regime may have won the election but at the cost of losing power. Totalitarian regimes have always been shortsighted and the coup leaders actions clearly demonstrate this. They simply fail to see that in the end the power always rests with the people. The catch is if the people realize this power. The Green Movement realizes this and is acting on it.
The core base of the regime has stayed in tact: devoutly religious, lower class masses who march during religious holidays (e.g., Ashura).
The regime has successfully used three levers to maintain their support: religion, oil money, and security forces.
The key will be in whether the opposition is able to shift that segment's blind support for the regime.
If they are not able to do that and if the youth become more radical, a civil war is the most obvious outcome. I'm sure that's what the MEK and other armed groups (ethnic groups, other religions, etc.) would like to see too.
As much as I hate to say it, if we want to avoid a bloody civil war, the path chosen by the Green Leaders maybe the only one that moves Iran forward without risking a civil war.
I too agree that we don't in fact like Mr. Mousavi but also we hate Mr. AN / SL and the Pasdaran rule.
We have chosen to allow the Mousavi clan to unite us under this common banner. But look at it from the Iranian persons perspective. Even though we may not like his past he has taken away our helplessness he has taken away our appety and he has given us some hope. I too disliked his ribbons and banners.
Now we may not still 100% agree with all his policy, but at least we can feel ourselves again. The good thing about tear gas is that not only does it make you tear up, but also it makes you feel again. For a nation that has been 30 years in a state of frozen destitute any grain of hope is worth while.
I also feel that Mr. Mousavi is evolving and he has shocked many of us, for no one (no one I guarantee) would have seen him as so resolute. I for one would have thought he would have backed down by now.....
Does it really matter if all the discontented in Iran believe in Mousavi's stated framework? After 30 years, what's needed seems to be any exit from the suffocating, self-perpetuating regime in place. Different characters over time, but same station, same story with its burdens on the people.
Hold the nose at the mention of the name Rafsanjani if you wish, but he seemed set on a path of incremental change without destroying Iran's physical and economic bases, without civil war. Perhaps not possible, but if anyone can start the chain of events moving away from square one, then at some point along the way, the people's true will could have a chance to emerge and succeed.
If and when that ever occurs, most likely the path won't be smooth. All the differences will contest because they can, but at least there will BE a contest, which is the foundation brick of freedom. Personally, I hope the people can hang in there for the opportunity. Easy to say when safe and warm away from there. Their courage and fortitude is an inspirational example to us all. I bow before them.
I agree with the EA reader whose views are the subject of this thread. He is right 100 percent.
Nowhere in the history of any nation there has been such volcanic explosion after a fraud election. I am on record last June saying that spontaneous eruption across streets of Iran had nothing to do with the fraud election or rock status of any candidates. The eruption was a display of people’s revolt against 30 years of occupation and Tyranny. Fraud election was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
People sentiment was best summarized by a sixty-year old woman who called into a national cable news outlet in the U.S. She had been out protesting with two female friends and all three had been beaten badly. She said, “we have packed our bags and we are ready to return home after a long 30-year journey, we miss our home (Iran) and plan to get home no matter how much they beat us and try to stop us.” That said it all.
Regime was aware that millions shared her sentiment. Millions wanted their homeland back and they would try to do that by their votes. Regime knew the election results will not be in its favor and prepared to scheme a plan to change the outcome. It knew people would not take the fraudulent results sitting down. That is why they had fortified the ministry of interior with riot police on June 12. Invitation of foreign journalists was a scheme to display massive participation of electorates and by that giving legitimacy to the outcome. But like any common criminal that finally gets caught because of his own stupidity and errors, foreign news outlets ended up bearing witness to the Tsunami of human emotion and disgust against the fraud regime magnifying its illegitimacy.
As whether people are with and for Mousavi, I am also on record saying that he and Karroubi were accidental and artificial rock stars who soon faded away.
@ Where is my vote,
“But look at it from the Iranian persons perspective. Even though we may not like his past he has taken away our helplessness he has taken away our appety and he has given us some hope. I too disliked his ribbons and banners “
May be you should now change your screen name to “where is my home”.
Seriously speaking when I read your words that I have quoted above, I keep thinking are we not taking the same road we took in 1979. Remember, Shah was the bad guy and Khomeini the savior and what a mess of savior he was.
I had friends who left their studies and went to join the 1979 movement. I knew them well. They had nothing in common with Khomeini and what Khomeini stood for. So I asked my friends why. They replied, “Well he is giving us hope, power and confidence to free Iran from grips of Pahlavi dynasty and once we achieve that we will be leading the struggle, Khomeini will go back to his mosque.” Well, guess what? Khomeini outlasted all of them. So I am worried that if we do not learn from history we are damned to repeat it. As the saying goes: you fool me once shame on you, you fool me twice shame on me. I do not want us to say shame on us.