The Latest from Iran (19 January): Cross-Currents

2115 GMT: Persian2English, from Ali Tavakoli, reports that the Revolutionary Court has handed down an 8 1/2-year prison sentence to student leader Majid Tavakoli, arrested on 16 Azar (7 December), for participation in an illegal gathering (5 years), propaganda against the regime (1 year), insult of the Supreme Leader (2 years), and insult of the President (6 months). In addition, Tavakoli is banned from any involvement in political activities and forbidden to leave the country for five years.

1940 GMT: Nuclear Deadlock. The Associated Press reports, from diplomatic sources, that Tehran has formally responded to the "third-party enrichment" proposal by insisting that a swap of uranium stock has to take place inside Iran.

1935 GMT: The Khatami Criticism. The website sympathetic to Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted a full summary of Mohammad Khatami's scatching critique of the Ahmadinejad Government (1545 GMT and 1749 GMT). Another notable extract is Khatami's assessment of the Parliamentary investigation on the detainee abuses at Kahrizak Prison: “This report is a sad evidence of a disaster in the Islamic Republic....Much of the truth has not been told but even this little is enough to shaken the back bone of those devoted to the establishment, Islam and Iran."

NEW Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader Warns Rafsanjani
NEW Iran Special: Breaking Mousavi’s Movement — Beheshti & Abutalabi
NEW Iran Analysis: Reality Check (Yep, We Checked, Government Still in Trouble)
Iran Analysis: How “Mohareb” Death Sentences May Hurt Regime
Latest Iran Video: Marandi on CNN on Detainee Abuses “Mortazavi to Blame” (17 January)
The Latest from Iran (18 January): Firewall

1920 GMT: Rah-e Sabz is now saying that the reported closure of the Hosseinieh at Jamaran (see 1800 GMT) by Seyed Hassan Khomeini was a lie of the "conservative" press and the house of worship is now open for "people's pilgrimage".

1800 GMT: Closing Down Khomeini? The Hosseiniyeh (house of worship) of Jamaran in northern Tehran, where Ayatollah Khomeini lived, has been sealed up. The Hosseinieh was the site of the memorial service for Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and the speech of Mohammad Khatami, broken up by pro-Government activists on Tasua (26 December).

Perhaps the closing of the Hosseinieh is a wise move, because the Khomeinis seem to be a troublesome bunch these days. On Friday, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Ayatollah, paid a visit to the family of Seyed Ali Mousavi, the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi who was killed on Ashura. Seyed Yasser Khomeini, the other grandson of Imam Khomeini, was one of the reformist clerics present.

1749 GMT: Quote of the Day. From Mohammad Khatami (see 1545 GMT): "You cannot rule a people with rage and by force."

1744 GMT: Cracking Down More and More. Alongside our specific analysis of regime attempts to break the Mousavi camp comes this wider claim from Peyke Iran: 50 political activists and 800 Ashura protesters are under heavy pressure to name friends who participated in the demonstrations. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has given permission to detain "all" who participated in Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's memorial and Ashura rallies.

1735 GMT: More Newspaper Fun (see 0820 GMT). President Ahmadinejad's advisor for press affairs, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, has condemned earlier indifferences to the press law and promises to handle it more carefully.

Hmm.... Given that 10 publications (Sarmayeh, Hayat-e Nou, Kalameh, Farhang-e Ashti, Hemmat, Mowj-e Andisheh, Kargozaran, Etemad-e Melli, Arya, and Ham-Mihan) have been shut down recently and Rah-e-Sabz has reported that it received a warning, I'm not sure "indifference" is the term I would have used.

1725 GMT: Thanks to excellent EA sources, we have two special analyses this afternoon: a reading of the Supreme Leader's latest speech as a warning to Hashemi Rafsanjani and a look at the detentions of two key aides to Mir Hossein Mousavi, Ali Reza Beheshti and Massoud Abutalabi.

1553 GMT: The Internet Threat. Iran's police forces have continued to talk tough about their monitoring of the Internet and mobile communications. A few days after warning Iranians against any organisation of protest via e-mail or text message, the police website declared, "After the publication of pictures of Ashura day [of] rioters on the police website and in the police special edition, ... more than 40 elements of sedition were identified and arrested with the cooperation of noble Iranians."

1545 GMT: The Khatami Statement. Mohammad Khatami has made another pointed intervention today. Speaking with a group of post-election detainees who have been released, he criticised those in power who "commit violence with complete immunity" and declared, "Many lies have been told these days and many promises have been made but people see those in charge of their affairs have not done much."

Khatami also put out the message that the Green movement is operating with legal boundaries and with respect for the Islamic Republic, "People realise that many of the protesters are not ill-intentioned and their protest is reasonable."

1530 GMT: Back from a day of academic duties to catch up with news. We are working on a major story about arrests and hope to have that posted within 45 minutes.

0830 GMT: Memorials and Tributes. A series of pointed testimonies yesterday: the students of the slain professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi have posted a video tribute, the mother of the detained student leader Majid Tavakoli spoke with Voice of America, and the father of Seyed Ali Mousavi (the nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi killed on Ashura) has talked about his son's death.

/(The Voice of America programme also includes an interesting discussion on tensions within the regime.)

0820 GMT: In the Newspaper World.... Curious develpments with the banning of three weeklies --- Mowj-e Andisheh, Hemmat, and Farhang-e Ashti --- by Iranian authorities.

The curiosity lies not in the bans, which are a frequent occurrence, but in the immediate reincarnation of Hemmat 2. With Hemmat reportedly suspended for publishing about the "friends of Hashemi Rafsanjani", its successor considers the friends of Rafsanjani and of the Supreme Leader.

Brighter minds than mine will have to sort this one out.

0815 GMT: A Grand Ayatollah and the "Secular Greens". The 15-p0int manifesto of the Secular Green Movement continues to gather signatories. Interesting to see this name among them: Grand Ayatollah Seyyed Hossein Kazemeyni Boroujerdi, who has called for separation of religion and government and who --- with many of his followers --- was arrested in 2006.

0810 GMT: Remembering, Living Ashura. The blogger Persian Umpire returns, having found an Internet connection, with a first-hand account of the events of Tasua and Ashura (26-27 December).

0735 GMT: We've noted, in our morning analysis, the current of opinion "within the Establishment" against the Ahmadinejad. We're not saying it's time for the President to pack his bags, but the situation is far from settled.

Ahmadinejad's most notable statement on Monday was another jump away from the domestic arena. He used a visit from Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze to take a swipe at the "West", declaring that NATO's eastward expansion does not serve the interests of the countries in the region. (Which tells you that the Foreign Minister was just a prop, since Georgia has been pressing for that expansion --- remember the background to the 2008 Georgia-Russia conflict?)

On the economic front, however, there may be another current against the President. The Tehran Times --- not, I hasten to add, an opposition publication --- has what appears to be an extraordinary declaration from Mohsen Bahrami-Arz-Aqdas, the chairman of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce: foreign investments in Iran tumbled 96 percent in the Iranian calendar year 1387 (March 2008-March 2009).

In the face of the economic sitaution, Bahrami-Arz-Aqdas said the Parliament should postpone Ahmadinejad's 5-Year Development Plan until next year, especially given the lack of goals and vagueness in the document.
Bahrami added that the 10 percent growth cited in the plan requires the investment which continues to decline.

The Government's cross-current against this continued unsettling news? More threats, more trials. Claimed footage of the hearing for two "mohareb" (war against God) defendants has now emerged.

Comments

[Barry]

"(Which tells you that the Foreign Minister was just a prop, since Georgia has been pressing for that expansion — remember the background to the 2008 Georgia-Russia conflict?)"

Yes. AN seems to be trying to sidle up to both the Russians and the Georgians. Didn't he read any newspapers about 18 months ago??

Barry

[Doug]

[an early draft of a poem. I'm not sure if I'll be able to add details at some future date. So far a starting point inspired by:
http://enduringamerica.com/2010/01/04/iran-five-expatriate-intellectuals-issue-the-demands-of-the-green-movement/comment-page-1/#comment-20493" rel="nofollow">Megan 5 January 2010 at 09:12 3 #comment-20493 , and
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/17/weekinreview/17fathi.html" rel="nofollow">The Iranian Exile’s Eye by Nazila Fathi, New York Times]

    In the Shade of a Dream
They say it is not practical
to find the shade of a maple
when tyranny strips the leaves, and
Iran is forlorn and barren

Even when leaving them
the maples of Tehran are
minding my thoughts
leaves of dreaming
branches in exile with
compatriots who share
the day that is
the night and a half
a zone of chanting and
secret leaves netted in green bits

Who needs to be pragmatic
if there's green in winter,
a new moon in Tehran,
estghlal, azadi, Jomhori Irani

[well, it's not clear but it's a starting point]
Note: I've seen "estghlal" and "esteghlal". Is there a difference? Or is a transliteration not agreed to?

[Bill Mason]

The 'Grand Ayatollah' link in the 0815 update is not working.

[Scott Lucas]

Bill,

Thanks for spotting. Link fixed.

S.

[Greeny]

Re. 0820 GMT: In the Newspaper World...

The three publications are pro-Ahmadnejad.
Hemmat was banned because of its attack in Rafsanjani, and naming high ranking IRI figures as Rafsanjani supporters. It also had a list of people it said were SL backers. It was basically saying that there are two groups of people in IRI: backers of SL and those who back Rafsanjani and are against SL. The ban may be a sign that SL wants attacks on Rafsanjani to stop. Or he may be worried about the deepening rift within the establishment
It took the Ministry of Culture 5 days to implement the ban; which is perhaps an indication that Ahmadinejad government backs these publications.

[Arshama]

Doug,

Merci beaucoup for your enchanting poem. Reminiscence of Tehran's maples breaks my heart, but its branches are sprouting all around the globe...
It should read "esteghlal" and "Jomhouri".

Go on, please, the Greens need mental support...

[Megan]

Doug,

Thank you for the poem. I am humbled that my words in some small part inspired you to write such a beautiful poem. I write on this blog with the hope that people in Iran read it and realize that they have been heard and that we try to be their voice.

Esteghlal and Estghlal have the same meaning and both of these spellings give the same spelling in Farsi, استقلال.

[Scott Lucas]

Green,

Much appreciated. Any truth to the rumour that Rahim-Mashai has a connection to Hemmat/Hemmat 2?

S.

[ange paris]

"Affarin" my dear Doug !

[Arshama]

@ 0815 GMT

Thank you, Scott, for reminding of the Secular Manifesto. Meanwhile the official English translation has been published: http://www.seculargreens.com/English-Section.htm

Peyke Iran has posted a video on Mohammad Ali Ramin (from VOA news), entitled "Butcher of the press" http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=12376
Obviously he is emulating Said Mortazavi. Ramin, who studied in Germany and returned to Iran in 1994, is denied entry to Germany since 2003, most likely because of his anti-Semitic statements.

[Greeny]

Scott,

Kaleme (close to Mousavi) certainly thinks that Hemmat is close to Mashai:
http://www.kaleme.org/1388/10/29/klm-8864
It says that the SL supporter list is in reality a list of people who are Mashai-freindly. The list of SL supports does not contain conservatives who could stand against Mashai in the next presidential election: Ali Larijani, Mohsen Rezai, Ahmad Tavakoli and Tehran Mayor Ghalibaf are all missing from the list. Also missing from the SL supporter list are IRIB head Zarghami, ex-Culture Minister Safar Harandi who was sacked by Ahmadinejad for criticising Mashai, Alireza Zakani, Hossien Fadaii. Also missing are senior clecics who have criticised Mashai in the past.

This fits with eth rumour that Mashai wants to run in the next presidential elections and if win, would appoint Ahmadinejad as First VP (similar to Medvedev/Putin arrangement).

BTW did you pick up the story about Alireza Beheshti being taken to court on Monday? He was apparently taken there from prison to appeal against his detention (which was turned down). He was taken in pyjamas and slippers and looked dishevelled with messy beard (you don’t get grooming kits or mirror in solitary confinement). And he was kept waiting in the corridor and treated rudely by the guards who accompanied him. The story is that may judiciary workers who saw him this way were displease at the way the son of the founder of the IRI Judiciary is being treated (his father’s photos are everywhere in judiciary buildings in Iran).

[Scott Lucas]

Green,

Thanks for update on Beheshti. I saw lots of chatter this morning but didn't have time to track down a link.

S.

[Greeny]

Scott,

Re. Behestti:
http://www.kaleme.org/1388/10/28/klm-8813
http://www.kaleme.org/1388/10/29/klm-8860

[ange paris]

۲۱/۱۱/۸۸میر حسین موسوی از ۱۱/۱۱/۸۸ الی
رسانه شمائید .. رسانه شمائید... رسانه شمائید

صدایی که با تهدید و تجاوز خاموش نشد،ا
صدایی که با کشتار و شکنجه خاموش نشد،ا
صدایی که با فیلترینگ و پارازیت خاموش نشد،ا
صدایی که با مناظره خاموش نمیشود،ا

Mir Hossein Moussavi : fights from 1 feb 2010 to 11 feb 2010
Threats and rapes haven't silenced our voice
Killings and tortures haven't silenced our voice
Filterings and interferences haven't silenced our voice
and, and .......................... :
" Dicussions " in TV haven't silenced our voice

The latter one is very important !! YES !

[Catherine]

Iran's Khatami lashes out at Ahmadinejad
TEHRAN (AFP) – Reformist ex-president Mohammad Khatami defended opposition protesters and accused Iran's leadership of "lying" to the people, his website reported on Tuesday.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100119/wl_mideast_afp/iranpoliticsoppositionkhatami_20100119111433

[ange paris]

Instead of " ” Dicussions ” in TV haven’t silenced our voice " I have had to write :
"Discussions in TV don't silence our voice " ; it's more subtle ! :-)

[Catherine]

'Iran ordered attack on Israeli convoy'
Jan. 19, 2010
AMIR MIZROCH and YAAKOV KATZ , THE JERUSALEM POST

Last week's failed attempt on the lives of Israeli diplomats in Jordan was apparently carried out on instructions from Teheran, sources close to Jordan's General Intelligence Department (GID) revealed on Monday.

The sources said the GID was investigating the possibility that the explosives used in the attack had been smuggled into the kingdom by Iranian diplomats.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1263147924148&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter

[Arshama]

Ange, Catherine

We are all Children of Damavand :-)

فرزند دماوند
مهریار انتظاری

به همبستگی با دانشجويان مبارز ايران

من از شهر دماوندم
ز شهر دود و اسفندم

مرا ابر است در خاطر
گرفته آه در بندم

چه خاموشم کنون امروز
اسير دوده و گندم

درون سينه ام آتش
ولی بسته است گلوبندم

ز سوز آتش ديروز
به خاک سرد خرسندم

از اين خاکستر سردم
مگر خيزد فرزندم

بکوبد تيشة پولاد
کند آزاد از بندم

بغرد رستم دستان:
که فرزند دماوندم!

يکی از فرزندان ايران
لندن

[Afi]

from STRATFOR: The P-5+1 talks took place this weekend. China did not even send a senior diplomat. The Russians made the standard noises about Iran needing to comply, but stated that the time for diplomacy was not yet over. It was more of the same. According to the Israelis, they expect progress by February. That is pretty soon and there will not be progress. We need to be looking what comes next. U.S. President Barack Obama seems to want to postpone dealing with the Iran nuclear program issue, and the Europeans are, of course, happy about that. Obama’s view is that there is the possibility of regime change because of the demonstrations. From our point of view, the only thing the demonstrations showed was how efficient Iran’s security services were, but Obama can use his view to justify delay. So the only significant player in this game is Israel and the threat that they will go it alone. That is not likely, but it is getting close to the time when senior Israeli delegations in the intelligence and security area start arriving in Washington.

[ange paris]

Afi
It's too good that Obama dosen't take a decision now and wants to postpone dealing with the Iran nuclear program issue; I think everybody waits for 22 Bahman and the outcome after it; we have also wait and see , there is a smell of regime change everywhere !

[ange paris]

Arshama
It's the day of "poets" ! our genious people have become nostalgic ! do you know what's WWW ?
We Will Win VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVV
Only 11 days till 1 february !
"Yes we can"!

[Doug]

Arshama,
Thank you for your encouragement and assistance.

[Doug]

Megan,
Thank you. I have no personal experience so I look for writing that has some emotional content. The impersonal news stories are not always helpful and I can't always get a feeling of what is going on, on an emotional level. The feedback is helpful because picking up bits and pieces, stumbling into metaphors, usually means I don't know what I'm saying. I try to carry along some sort of message, but oddly enough, I don't always know what it is. I'm glad you got something from it.

[Doug]

Ange Paris,
Thank you very much.

[Arshama]

Scott,

Khasteh nabashid! The 1545 GMT link (Khatami) refers to newest arrests...

A bilingual list of detainees (159) as of 9 January. http://www.iran-aktuell.de/156.html
Until yesterday or the day before the names of 177 arrested Ashura protesters were published (FA).