Monday
Jan252010
UPDATED Iran Snap Analysis: The Karroubi and Khatami Manoeuvres
Monday, January 25, 2010 at 12:56 
UPDATE 26 JANUARY: This reading is now overtaken by our special analysis on the significance of the Karroubi statementUPDATE 1915 GMT: First, an apology. I got this wrong earlier --- I missed the important nuances in Karroubi's statement and made the wrong connection: it is not linked to the Larijani-Rezaei-Qalibaf initiative.
Second, a top EA correspondent is finishing checks with sources and will have the best analysis of this situation later tonight.
Iran Special Analysis: What Karroubi’s Statement on “Mr Khamenei”/”Head of Government” Means
The Latest from Iran (26 January): Now for the Follow-Up….
The Latest from Iran (25 January): Who Makes A Move Today?
UPDATE 1630 GMT: An EA reader points us to a curious piece that appeared in Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News this past weekend. The apparent confusion and even dispute between Karroubi and Khatami over a supposed approach to the Supreme Leader has been at the back of my mind while trying to read latest events. Any assistance from readers appreciated.
UPDATE 1500 GMT: EA sources, as well as readers, offer important amendments to our reaction:
First, it should be noted that Hossein Karroubi contacted a number of press outlets after Fars News claimed that Mehdi Karroubi had declared, without reservation that, he "recognised the President". Given Fars' past record, as well as the unlikely scenario that Karroubi would make such an important statement through that outlet, the scenario is that Hossein Karroubi was putting out a hasty "clarification" to prevent the Fars story from getting any traction.
Second, Hossein Karroubi's clarification had two important qualifiers. First, he made clear that his father saw Ahmeadinejad as "selected leader" rather than "elected President". Second, even though that selection was on the basis of the Supreme Leader's endorsement, there was a pointed reference to this as the action of "Mr Khamenei".
So the story seems to move away from a concerted response linking Karroubi and the "establishment" critics of the Government. Still, questions remain:
Why did Hossein Karroubi not give a simple repudiation of the Fars report? For the statement he offered has a curious tension: Mehdi Karroubi accepts the overriding verdict of the Supreme Leader (and thus velayat-e-faqih) even as he diminishes leader and system with the "Mr" tag.
And perhaps more importantly, is the Khatami letter to the Supreme Leader legitimate? For if so, Karroubi's response is not only to Ayatollah Khamenei; it is to the former President's attempt to bring together a group for reconciliation.
A quick reaction to emerging events, combined with the inside information Enduring America received last week:
Last week, as part of our articles on a possible "Plot Against President Ahmadinejad", we noted that the key participants (Ali Larijani-Mohsen Rezaei-Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf) had extended invitations to Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to join the move.
This morning, we are processing news that 1) Mehdi Karroubi, through his son, is saying that he is recognising Ahmadinejad as President because of the Supreme Leader's endorsement; 2) Mohammad Khatami has written to the Supreme Leader upholding the process of reform but recognising the legitimacy of the Iranian system and has suggested the arbitration of Hashemi Rafsanjani in a resolution of political issues.
No one has yet been able to put forward a reason for the apparent shift, so here goes: the overture by the "establishment group" was not rebuffed. Instead, a deal may have been struck: the Supreme Leader and velayat-e-faqih are beyond dispute. The June election will not be overturned (primarily because Ayatollah Khamenei endorsed it), but the "reformist" leaders can put their grievances and recommendations for change to a working group.
And Ahmadinejad remains on the outside of the process.
A lot of holes at this stage in the hypothesis. After all, this assumes that the Karroubi and Khatami statements are as reported (I tend to think that is the case). Mir Hossein Mousavi has not made a declaration. And, of course, there will be nothing in public to connect this to a Larijani-Rezaei-Qalibaf initiative.
But, given how much rough water will be stirred rather than smoothed by these developments, best to cling on to something....
Reader Comments (39)
I don't trust any of them from inside the system, I think this was always the plan, unfortunetly, things have got away from them, no one want the IRI anymore. How many of us have been saying not to trust them? No matter what they are the system and they will never change.
AB,
I'm with you 100%.
the people must find leaders outside the system or they will be betrayed.
You have never been so far of the mark. Wow. Karroubi says that "Ahmadinejad is the appointed leader of the central government as directed by Mr. Khamenei" He doesn't say President and he refrains from calling Khamenei the supreme leader.
@ Basher
Pota(y)to, Potato, Toma(y)to, Tomato..
Either way he gives him legitamicy whish is NOT good...
This is sad if true...
Karoubi acknowledges president", that is NOT tru, plz dont spread rumours http://bit.ly/5TRqiO
Found this on twitter
Some of what Karoubi says is lost in translation and I think that's what Fars News was hoping for -- and might be getting considering the English headlines I'm seeing around the web. To an Iranian audience, there's a clear difference between accepting Ahmadinejad as "President of the Government" (Rayis Dolat) and not as "President of the Republic" (Rayis Jomhoor). One could argue that this is Karoubi's sharpest jab at the Supreme Leader. He essentially said "I accept Ahmadinejad as the president of a government I believe to be illegitimate because of Mr. Khamaneyi's stamp of approval!" He's questioning the legitimacy of the Supreme Leader as much as one can in Iran!
@ AJ
And not to forget: there is also a difference between "accepting" and "recognize". Without any doubts Ahmadi is acting as "President" whether legitmate or not.
To address the "Supreme Leader" as "Mr. Khamenei" is nothing else as a simple insult.
No agreement can be seen - but rising tensions. Impressive article - written by Hoshang Asadi including a poem "Wolves should know well ....."
signed by Zahra Rahnavard
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/////the-wolves-should-know-well.html
OK here's my take on this. I agree 100% with Basher and AJ that Regime media are trying to take advantage of translation errors, knowing the Western media will just look at the surface of the statement and say, well, Karroubi said the word "president" while talking about Ahmadinejad, so I guess he's saying he accepts AN's legitimate rule over Iran.
Later clarifications have shown that's not exactly what Karroubi said, but, as many have pointed out, why make a statement that could be misinterpreted like that? Why would Karroubi try to "do a Raffers" [via @AMNmonkeyface] especially after just having put out such a strong statement reiterating his accusations of election fraud and prison rape?
Looking at Mousavi Statement #17, Khatami's alleged letter, and this statement by Karroubi to Fars News, a pattern emerges. They seem to me to be like the responses of three different students to the assignment "Declare the election is over and Ahmadinejad is president. [Or else.]"
As I said when Mousavi #17 first came out, it appears to me that somewhere within the bowels of the Regime a decision was made that the source of all this disturbance in the streets is the people's conviction that Mousavi won the election. In classic thug thinking, it's clear what must be done. Force those who have the legal right to press such a claim (former presidents, presidential candidates, election overseers) to state that they accept the Ahmadinejad presidency.
KhamCo strategists apparently believe that this election unrest is like a court case being fought over, and if the litigants submit and forfeit the dispute, that will end the matter for everyone. So, the next logical step if you're a thug leader is to assassinate a few people to show you mean business, then give explicit orders to the troublemakers detailing exactly what they need to say in order for their loved ones to stay alive.
Mousavi responded with an exquisitely poetic, multi-page statement that ended with a passionate heartfelt plea for a return to reason and the rule of law.
Khatami apparently responded by secretly writing the Supreme Leader to ask, "Hey guy, can't we work this out? No need to get snippy!" He may be right to assume Khamenei must like him best, since his loved ones are still alive and no one has shot at his car with him in it.
And Obi-Wan Karroubi? He straight-up calls the most notorious propaganda outfit in the nation and spits out word-for-word the exact message demanded of him. He also uses the opportunity to point out that Mr. Khamenei is just a man. A man whose job is Supreme Leader, and who is a miserable failure at that job, as evidenced by the abuse and fraud that Karroubi's statement from the day before pointed out.
Perhaps Karroubi was ordered to make this statement at this particular time actually in response to his earlier reiteration of accusations. Maybe the Regime decided they needed to discredit him right away, since the rape issue is a real threat to them.
So much elaborate Regime planning for such a ridiculous aim! As if they could succeed in pacifying people that way! This will just add fuel to the fire, or possibly, to use another metaphor, put a spark to the powderkeg.
i dont think karrubi or mousavi want actual reform but a watered down islamic regime,iranian ppl want a totally new secular goverment -not arabic ideology we had 30 years of that
Rev Magdalen,
"why make a statement that could be misinterpreted like that?"
IMO because they are scared of 22 Bahman; Karrubi steps back so that the protesters step back too.
Scott-
I follow your logic, however, at the end of the day, who cares what they say. From my vantage, the whole group are varying degrees of the same persona- not to be trusted and scared about their survival once the regime falls.
With 80% literacy rate, my guess is there must be some fresh, intelligent, humane and healthy thinking Iranians (male or female) who could do a 1000% better leading, than these evil old men.
Hossein Karrubi clarifies his father's stance to BBC Persian:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2010/01/100125_l10_karubi_ahmadinejad.shtml
Karrubi Jr says his father essentially is saying the same as Mousavi in his 17th statement: this is not a retreat - he had hoped the 'rulers' would acknowledge the demands of the people but they have refused to do so. A solution to the crisis is now needed to save the country from the crisis created by the government.
Without naming Khamenei he's essentially blaming him for perpetuating the crisis. Stating that he recognises Ahmadinejad's government would appear to be a way of putting the ball back in Khamenei's court - make some serious concessions now or the situation will continue to deteriorate.
Re the Khatami letter, i'd be wary of over-extrapolating what appears to be a third-hand report of two lines from the letter (quoted from a pro-Karrubi paper itself quoting an anonymous MP) without more solid confirmation or context. Apart from the alleged specific reference to Rafsanjani the other quote would seem to be in line with Karrubi's statements as reported and explained above.
@florence achard If that was Karroubi's intent, to step back and try to calm people so they won't go out on 22 Bahman, then why did he release the earlier statement standing behind the criminal accusations? Why not just let that lie if you're trying to smooth things over? Or even go further and refute your earlier accusations, say you were lied to by Zionists, if you really wanted to try to please the Regime or break the back of the opposition?
Karroubi is saying as long as Khamenie stands behind AN, he is the president; so, get rid of Khameneie.
At the same time, Karroubi is putting an end to the rumors regarding reform leaders accepting a deal that would see AN impeached in favour of keeping Khamenie.
Karroubi hasnt stood behind people and risked his/his families lives to just give up now; he is saying what he wants to say about Khamenie without saying it.
these arab leaders are killing muslims&getting more killed for the sake of islam. What an abstract imaginiary &sick life
A couple of things first:
It is strange that Karoubi Jr refers to Ahmadinejad as “nezam”’s (a regime sudoname for SL) president.
Also, it is reported that he referred to Khamenei “Mr Khamenei” and not rahbar-e moazam or leader. In IRI referring to the SL or Khomeini as Mr is tantamount to using rude words about them.
Let’s ignore the above as typo’s or mistakes, or whatever else for now... and look at why this talk now:
Is this:
1
A retreat by Karoubi. After getting people to protest and going to protests himself, and people getting killed, raped and beaten, he is now giving up and saying Ok, it is over. In this case teh regime pressures would have worked.
2
A tactical move to decrease the pressure from the reformists and to get some of their people (and importantly, their advisors) out of prison, they hope. In this case the regime’s tactics of buying time with hostage taking would have bore some fruit.
3
A backroom deal with SL. You accept the Ahmainejad government and I’ll see what I can do for you guys in the long run. I am wondering how much one can trust SL (with view to his past actions). It also depends how under pressure SL is and how much that pressure could be used against SL or used to make him do as you want. What are reformists to get out of this? A position as opposition within IR establishment (going back into the tent as Askaroladi has called it several times)? A promise that Ahmadinejad would be gotten rid of before his full term, if not for political reasons, for economic reasons? If so, what happens then? And what happens with SL power, his powerful office, Guardian council and the Guards?
4
Pinning Ahmadinejad and the election fraud firmly on SL. Basically saying the elections were phony and SL approved the rigged elections (implying that he is a cheat). Also saying this is SL’s government, so that in long run SL is blamed for what the government does and does not (like fixing the economy, which is looking beyond hope). This could be as an insurance policy in combination with one 2 and/or 3 above. Or it could be a standalone move, which could either be a defensive move or part of another planned attack.
5
Trying to lessen the pressure on establishment with view to 22 Bahman coming up. Knowing that the regime can take only so many more hits like Ashura or Qods day. In such a case, why do this now? Is he that worried about the actual survival of IRI? Surely IRI is not in danger of immanent fall or disintegration. Or it could be out of worry that people would go out like on Ashura and regime will crack down even harder and there would be more bloodshed. So saying this could put more pressure on regime to back down from violent crackdown (which I don’t think would work).
6
Could be a deal with the plotters EA mentioned over the weekend (Larijani, Ghalibaf, Rezaii), without the involvement of SL. I still don’t see where those plotters would get their muscle without SL support. What is Karoubi to gain from such a deal? Overthrow of Ahmadinejad? A Position as an arbiter within regime? (to work for release of prisoners, etc: what he used to do during Khatami presidency)
None of this addressed two important factors: Ahmandinejad camp and the people.
Another issue is if Karoubi Jr’s calling SL as Mr Khamenei and Karoubi calling Ahmadinejad as Khamenei’s (nezam) president are actually correct and not typos, etc. This could be opening a whole new can of worms.
"these arab leaders are killing muslims&getting more killed for the sake of islam. What an abstract imaginiary &sick life"
ARAB LEADERS???
"i dont think karrubi or mousavi want actual reform but a watered down islamic regime,iranian ppl want a totally new secular goverment -not arabic ideology we had 30 years of that"
What exactly is "arabic ideology"???
Greeny, I guess you've summed up my position as #3, only I believe what the reformists get out if it is, they get to live and not be assassinated after first watching their families die horribly as well. I think things are beyond politics now.
It's true that all the elites in the regime had to choose a side, as Khamenei threatened them to. However, they are doing it in a very smart way in my perspective..
In his statement, Karoubi specifically is saying that the election was a fraud, and he assumes that as a fact. and then right after, he says that Khamenei certified the election.. so he is in result questioning the "asle velayate faghih"
I personally dont thin karoubi and mousavi are the ultimate leaders of this movement.. but I thought it was interesting how he dealt with the whole "taking side" task that khamenei forced him to do..
Samuel
"What exactly is “arabic ideology”???"
I believe he/she is referring to Islam.
Barry
Meanwhile - back in the REAL world
Iran's central Bank Governor announces $48 billion non-performing loans.
http://business.maktoob.com/20090000425058/Iran_banks_have_$48_bln_in_bad_loans_cbank/Article.htm
Barry
Greenie,
"5-Trying to lessen the pressure on establishment with view to 22 Bahman coming up. Knowing that the regime can take only so many more hits like Ashura or Qods day."
Yes.
M and K know that the regime is in danger on 2 sides:
1- the people are radicalizing and M and K are not sure they can rein them in; they could topple the IR; this is what they want to avoid at all cost.
2- at the same time they know that AN and SL are also putting the regime at risk with their extremism; that's why they use the people (the threat of protests) to try and frighten them into accepting a more viable kind of IR.
They are walking on a tight rope, and if they can't achieve their goal, they will remain faithful to the IR, not to the Iranian people.
Scott,
Re: 18:30 curious note
Here what that piece says:
Mehdi Karroubi’s office in an interview with Saham News says they were expecting Mohammad Khatami to deny a claim made by a member of clergy organization a few days in which he (M. Khatami) had related a message to Mousavi and Karroubi. Karroubi’s spokesman says M. Khatami’s has been silent and they deny such contact by Khatami at it relates to M. Karroubi.
A few days ago ILNA had published a piece in which Hossein Abrahimi a member of clergy organization related a story that in their meeting with Majlis National Security Committee M. Khatami had stated that he (M. Katami) had contacted Mousavi and Karroubi by phone asking both men to write to SL before Friday Prayer (it does not say which Friday Prayer and I believe it is probably before 22 Bahaman) and state their views/ claims regarding election if they believed there were fraud but it is to their (Mousavi and Karroubi’s) benefit to ask SL to determine the remedy for them.
Karroubi spokesman conveys M. Karroubi has said “any decision I have made since election has been my own”
Now my commentary:
I believe this may be part of the discussion and analysis I had heard http://enduringamerica.com/2010/01/21/the-latest-from-iran-21-january-speaking-in-codes/comment-page-1/#comment-23626
With the above statement from Karroubi’s office, if it is true, he has not accepted and it is not part of that deal.