The Latest from Iran (7 February): Tremors

2045 GMT: Kalemeh is reporting that more than 1000 students at Sharif University demonstrated today over detentions of their classmates.

2030 GMT: Ali Kalai of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters has been re-arrested, and journalist Ehsan Mohrabi is reported to have been detained tonight.

1950 GMT: Criticising Khomeini. That's right --- days before the celebration of the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, 180 members of Parliament have signed a statement denouncing the Imam's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini. The dispute arose when Khomeini wrote the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghamai, complaining about "censorship" of his grandfather's speeches.

1930 GMT: Conservative Mischief. Ayande News stirs the pot with a story claiming that Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai went to Switzerland recently, not only to promote a "uranium swap" on Iran's Kish Island but also to pursue secret meetings on other issues, presumably with US officials. The paper, quoting French and Swiss newspapers, ponders what covert messages Rahim-Mashai brought.

No prizes here to guess the propaganda: the "conservative opposition" wants to stick Ahmadinejad, through his right-hand man, with the label of appeaser of Washington.

NEW Iran Advice Video: Palin to Obama “Bomb and You Get Re-Elected”
NEW Iran Special: The Weakness of the Regime “It’s Deja Vu All Over Again”
Iran: The “Reconciliation” Proposals of Karroubi’s Etemade Melli Party
Iran: “Conservative Opposition” Offer to Mousavi “Back Khamenei, We Sack Ahmadinejad”
Iran Space Shocker: Turtle-Astronauts Defect to West
Iran Document: Karroubi’s Open Letter for 22 Bahman (6 February)
Iran: Quick! Look Over There! The Nuclear Distraction
Iran Document: Iranian Journalists Write Their Overseas Colleagues About 22 Bahman
The Latest from Iran (6 February): Eyes on the Real Prize

1925 GMT: After all our frustration with the media coverage of the Ahmadinejad nuclear moves this week, full marks to Borzou Daragahi and Julian Barnes of the Los Angeles Times for nailing the story: "In a possible move to deflect attention from Iran's political woes, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday ordered the nation's atomic energy agency to begin enriching uranium from 3.5% to 20% purity to serve as fuel for a Tehran medical reactor."


1900 GMT: Oh Dear G** (cont.). We've posted the video of Sarah Palin's political advice to Barack Obama: "Bomb Iran".

1715 GMT: Oh Dear G**. Sometimes objectivity has to give way before the train-wreck of politics and media coverage. This morning's charade plays out, as the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akhbar Salehi, dutifully responding to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's call, says, "As Iranian president [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] announced, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran will start enriching uranium to a level of 20 percent if talks on fuel swap fail to achieve an outcome."

Instead of calling out the pretence in the Ahmadinejad game --- if Iran can enrich uranium to 20 per cent and thus does not need a deal with the West, why haven't they been doing so for many months? --- the Western media chase this without question. Indeed, CNN elevates this to a crisis moment --- "a fresh challenge to Western powers bidding to rein in Tehran's galloping nuclear drive" --- never noticing the internal situation behind the President's move.

About the only political/media stunt more distressing/humourous than this is a woman named Sarah Palin, who today advises President Obama to ensure his re-election by bombing Iran.

1555 GMT: Revolving Door. While the regime is sweeping up activists and journalists, there have been releases as well. Ali Gholi Tabar and Morteza Saremi, members of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution have been released on bail.

1415 GMT: More Detained Journalists (see 1205 GMT). Mahsa Jazini of Iran newspaper has been detained.

1400 GMT: The Other Side of the Mottaki Visit. While the international media was dwelling on the nuclear issue during Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's jaunt to the Munich Security Conference, others were highlighting the internal situation in no uncertain terms.



A United for Iran activist explains the issues in an interview with Germany's Welt TV.

1300 GMT: Here We Go. The Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring a statement from the Ministry of Intelligence, putting out the grand narrative --- four days before the demonstrations of 22 Bahman --- of protesters supported by the US and Israel:

Seven people organisationally linked to the counter-revolutionaries, the Zionist media and elements of the sedition have been arrested....A number of them were officially hired by the U.S. intelligence agency, the CIA.

The detainees, who were not named, were allegedly involved with the US Government-backed Farsi-language station Radio Farda and received training in Istanbul and Dubai in disrupting public order, spreading rumors and conducting sabotage. The seven supposedly played a significant role in "post-election riots", especially on Ashura (27 December).

1205 GMT: Latest arrests include journalists Zeinab Kazemkhah, Samiyeh Momeni, Ahmad Jalali-Farihani of Mehr, and Akbar Montajab of Etemade-Melli.


1155 GMT: Coming Out for 22 Bahman. Rah-e-Sabz has published a summary of calls from reformist and Green groups, including the Mohajedin of Islamic Revolution and Etemade Melli parties, for people to demonstrate this Thursday.

An English translation of the statement of the reformist Association of Combatant Clerics has now been posted.

1145 GMT: This Has Nothing to Do with 22 Bahman. Really. I can only report this "straight" and let everyone draw their own judgements. From Agence France Presse:

Iran said on Sunday its Internet connections will remain slow this week due to technical problems, ahead of anticipated protests by opposition supporters. Connections have been slow since last week and some email accounts have been unavailable for several hours each day.

"The cause of the reduced Internet speed in recent days is that part of the fibre-optic network is damaged," Communications Minister Reza Taghipour told Iran's state broadcaster. "The breakage will be repaired by next week and the Internet speed will be back to normal". ["Next week" begins 13 February.]

Taghipour said the undersea optic fibre across the Gulf between the Iranian port of Jask and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates had been damaged due to shipping traffic and anchoring. He also acknowledged that text messaging in Iran had been disrupted, blaming it on "changing software."

0940 GMT: Nuclear Fiddling (cont.). So why did Ahmadinejad shift again this morning on Iran's enrichment of uranium (see 0835 GMT)? Consider the setting, the exhibition of Laser Science and Technology Achievements: you can't exactly prove you're setting the scientific/technological worlds on fire if you put forward dependency on the "West" for your advances.

And consider the immediate cause: Ahmadinejad's declaration of self-sufficiency, as framed by state media, was "to meet the demands of the country's cancer patients". In other words, Iran is on the verge of running out of 20-percent uranium for its medical research reactors. That is the same concern that took it to the International Atomic Energy Agency last June with the offer to negotiate. And that concern is still very much present.

0840 GMT: Economy in the Pocket of Government? The Iranian Labor News Agency, in the context of the Government's budget proposals, offers an interesting overview of the Iranian economy.

0835 GMT: Nuclear Fiddling While XXX Burns. Days after he tried the headline approach of a deal on uranium enrichment with the West, President Ahmadinejad doubles back this morning in a televised speech with the declaration that Iran can be self-sufficient:

We had told them (the West) to come and have a swap, although we could produce the 20 percent enriched fuel ourselves. We gave them two-to-three months' time for such a deal. They started a new game and now I (ask) Dr Salehi (the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization) to start work on the production of 20 percent fuel using centrifuges....The doors for interaction are still open.

I leave it  for readers, in light of our analysis this morning, to fill in the XXXs with their interpretation. Meanwhile, the non-Iranian media --- apparently oblivious to the internal developments in Iran in the last 24 hours --- are following over themselves to feature Ahmadinejad's latest statement without considering why he made it.

0830 GMT: Journalist Jamileh Darolshafaie and her sister, music teacher Banafsheh Darolshafaie, have been arrested.

0815 GMT: We begin this Sunday morning, four days before 22 Bahman and the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, trying to put together the dramatic and somewhat unexpected developments from the declarations of the opposition to the letter from a key MP to Mir Hossein Mousavi seeking the deal "Accept Khamenei, Reject Ahmadinejad". Our special analysis sets out why all of this is a sign of regime weakness.

A couple more supporting pieces of evidence this morning: Ayatollah Dastgheib, a persistent critic of the Government and indeed of the system, has declared, "One Person Cannot Rule 70 Million People". That's a pretty direct challenge to the Supreme Leader and velayat-e-faqih (clerical supremacy). Dastgheib, echoing the demands for freedoms made in last night's manifesto of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Party, declared:

It seems like today all the affairs of the country is in the hands of Revolutionary Guards and police and people have no say or will and this is the basis of the diversion from the principles of the revolution....

The armed forces, police, Revolutionary Guards and military should consider people’s benefit not their own benefit; they should guard people’s lives, belongings and dignity....The police should support the religious figures and scholars and not do something to isolate them, leaving no dignity for anyone except those who obey them.

Comments

[Megan]

"I (ask) Dr Salehi (the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization) to start work on the production of 20 percent fuel using centrifuges"

Well, at least he did not ask for 20 more plants to be built in 20 days!!!!!!

[ange paris]

I have filled "XXX" : "IRI"

[ange paris]

Mr sick-minded has pitied cancer's patients when lots of iran people have died because of him ! dying is nothing, the worst is : being raped, tortured ,and dying over a low heat in their dirty hands !

[Publicola]

In connection with all the moves and the to(s) and fro(s) of Iranian foreign and domestic policy in the run-up to the celebrations of 22 bahman, the anniversary of the Iranian revolution, I would urgently like to draw the commentators’ and readers’ attention to a heartbreaking report on the direct impact of the revolution 31 years ago.

On the occasion of 22 Bahman appeared the impressive text ”30 years ago …“ by the Iranian Blog authoress „naj“on her website „neo resistance“ exactly one year ago.

This moving account of insurgent Iran during the days that shook the world is to be found via the link:

• http://iranfacts.blogspot.com/2009/02/30-years-ago.html

website: “neo-resistance”; author: “naj” – Thursday, Februar 12, 2009

[Megan]

What is the use of filling in the XXXs when you edit it, Scott?

[Scott Lucas]

Megan,

Sorry --- my intention (probably not successful) was to let readers consider what exactly is burning while Ahmadinejad plays the nuclear games.

Scott

[Catherine]

@Megan,

RE: Well, at least he did not ask for 20 more plants to be built in 20 days!!!!!!

He-he, nor did he ask the good Dr Salehi to come up with a way to turn the 20% enriched uranium into the fuel rods they actually need for the Tehran reactor. Hmmmm... I wonder why he didn't ask him to do that ..... ;-)

[Catherine]

RE 9:40 GMT Nuclear Fiddling (cont.). So why did Ahmadinejad shift again this morning on Iran’s enrichment of uranium (see 0835 GMT)? Consider the setting, the exhibition of Laser Science and Technology Achievements: you can’t exactly prove you’re setting the scientific/technological worlds on fire if you put forward dependency on the “West” for your advances.

Well, that PROVES he's an idiot. If there ever was a setting where those present would know what the Tehran reactor really needs is not raw 20% enriched uranium, but the nuclear fuel rods made from 20% enriched uranium that only France and Argentina can provide, it's this setting!

The editors over at Press TV are - if possible - even more dim-witted:
"Thousands of Iranian patients, in need of post-surgery drug treatment with nuclear medicine, will suffer if domestic production dries up when a research reactor in Tehran runs out of fuel."

What domestic production are they talking about? As of today non-existent domestic production of 20% enriched uranium? As of never in their wildest dreams domestic production of nuclear fuel rods?

All the hullabaloo in the West about AN's latest fantasy is absurd, unless of course France a/o Argentina and the IRI suddenly become Best Friends Forever :-).

[Catherine]

RE 0815 GMT: Ayatollah Dastgheib, echoing the demands for freedoms made in last night’s manifesto of Mehdi Karroubi’s Etemade Party, declared:
"It seems like today all the affairs of the country is in the hands of Revolutionary Guards and police and people have no say or will and this is the basis of the diversion from the principles of the revolution…".

That's exactly what seems to be happening. My remarks on this are here:
http://enduringamerica.com/2010/02/07/iran-special-the-weakness-of-the-regime-its-deja-vu-all-over-again/comment-page-1/#comment-26534

[danial]

13:00GMT

Even if some of the allegations against these detainees were true, it would still be dismissed as falsehood because they have such a bad history of making false accusations or exaggerating offenses.

Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if a few people in this movement turn out to be "hired agents".

[Ali Khamenei]

Regarding such this: 1300 GMT: Here We Go. The Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring a statement from the Ministry of Intelligence, putting out the grand narrative — four days before the demonstrations of 22 Bahman — of protesters supported by the US and Israel:
     Not only are they supported by the US and Israel but also by covert agents of the British Museum! But we will overcome such evil by the blood of our martyrs.
     We have proof that agents of the Zionists, UK, and the CIA have been conspiring to disrupt the glorious celebration of our revolution on 22 Bahman.
     Spies from the British Museum were caught on a mountain road in Darake park, Tehran, trying to contaminate Mulberry trees with a tree fungus that would attack the trees in the spring and spread disease throughout Iran as far as Rasht. If we had not intercepted them, there would have been no mulberry leaves in Iran.
     Unlike the UK spies, ours are more clever. Our sources at the British Museum and elsewhere throughout the world have provided us with extensive intelligence.
     Our source, known as "Nigel Cyrus" attended a cocktail party at the British Museum where a plot was hatched. Nigel has transmitted detailed notes back to us.
     Under the nefarious orders of the Queen, MI6 is holding the King Cyrus Clay Cylinder (6th Century BC) hostage. BBC news http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/entertainment/arts_and_culture/8502654.stm" rel="nofollow">LINK has mischaracterized the cylinder as the "first bill of rights that encapsulates religious tolerance." If we do not pay a ransom they threaten to change the cuneiform writing on the cylinder to ostensively support opposition demands for a "Bill of Rights." We will not be blackmailed by the Queen, the CIA, or by King Cyrus.
     Nigel reports that at the decadent party, under the influence of Alcohol and abstract art, a young girl whose hair was uncovered revealed state secrets to him. Even what was served presents an interesting "tip of the iceberg" -- dessert: pistachio, mulberry, & pomegranate Ice Cream with almonds which they hoped to smuggle to Tehran University. What's even worse is that it was loaded with artificial green food coloring and would have been distributed to protesters on 22 Bahman. We have intercepted the plot and the student conspirators in Iran are being held by the Ice Cream Religious Police in a secret IRGC barracks. We will make certain that no ice cream will be served at the show trial.
     WARNING: The eating of green ice cream is a crime against God.
There is no top-dog but Khamenei and Ahmadinejad is His messenger

[AJ]

Congratulations to the Leveretts! The infamous "news" program on state-TV titled 20:30 just ran a piece titled "After 8 months Americans confess that the election results were just."

[Arshama]

Ali Khamenei,

I scream, they scream, we scream for Green Ice Cream! With pistachio, mulberry and pomegranate toppings, please ;-)

[Samuel]

Ha Ha Ha. "Our special analysis sets out why all of this is a sign of regime weakness."

I would like to see an example in the last 5 months where a statement or act by the govt. has not been characterized by EA as "sign of regime weakness".

Reality check. 22 Bahman will come and go and then there is a quite a while before the next holiday to attempt to hijack.

Reality check. Every utterance by Ali Motahhari is treated these days by EA like the excited reaction of a teenager meeting her musical idol. Hint, Motahari is an opponent of AN and will ALWAYS criticize what AN says or does no matter the topic. If AN says up Motahari will say down. Mariano Rajoy, the leader of the opposition in Spain, has yet to find one positive thing to say about the govt. in 6 years and one would be hard pressed to find one good thing Sarah Palin has mentioned about Obama.

Motahhari is free to speak his mind, why shouldn't he attack AN with any outrageous thought that comes into his brain?

[ange paris]

Paris 7 of Feb; big march from République to Nation lasting 2h( only the march but all the ceremoy with lots of famous guests, iranian and french journalists, intellectuals and human rights representatives and statement of each one 4h), we were beyond 4000 people in the street shouting green secular slogans, and asking for the release of all political prisoners; it was the first time we were too many; i have a message for AN and SL :
With all you have done repressing, raping, killing our people there is no fear, and more arrogance from people's behavor, therefore change your policy and anyhow, you are finished ! you couldn't imagine how amazing it was !! jaye shoma khali dear fake leaders !!

[Scott Lucas]

Samuel,

You're far too shrewd to think that Motahhari is singing solo, and you're far too close a reader of EA not to notice the others on the stage.

S.

[Samuel]

Scott,

I realize that Motahhari speaks for the Larijani, Larijani and Larijani group but the point still stands. Speaker Lariajani wanted to be president in 2005 and would like to be president in 2013 but sooner if possible. Here I agree with your analysis of a few weeks ago. This type of factional back and forth is standard for the IRI and above it, as always, stands the SL. The SL backed AN against Mousavi BUT we forget that Larijani and co. have been the Supreme Leader's "boys" for a long, long time. In fact the SL effectively used Larijani to effectively check Rafsanjani back when the latter was President.

To constantly cite the factional squabbles (which have always existed; how many of AN's cabinet nominees were rejected in his 1st term???) again and again as some evidence of growing "regime weakness" is to feed into the wildest of the emigre fantasies about a govt. system about to be overthrown.

Second, EA seems to treat AN's use of foreign policy and the nuclear issue as solely meant to distract from the domestic political situation. The linking of foreign policy with domestic policies is, again, nothing unusual. Even today there was a story about the American opposition exploiting terrorism to imporve their political standing:

"President Barack Obama's top counterterrorism adviser said Sunday that lawmakers and others are using national security to score political points"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35282251/ns/us_news-airliner_security/

Anyone who reads EA understands the pro-green bias but lately the analysis has become little more than green boosterism. Everything the Govt. does or does not do is a sign of its weakness. The small pro-govt. demonstrations to protest the burning of the Imam's picture shows how the govt. can't bring its supporters into the streets. The huge (yes huge) pro-govt. demonstrations a few weeks later are dismissed as the govt. simply paying or feeding folks to show up.

Unfortunately EA has come to sound more and more (on the analytical not the prescriptive side) like the neocons it supposedly disdains. Like the Ledeens of this world the site is beginning to portray an IRI growing weaker by the second to the point where a stiff wind might very well topple it. Is it any wonder that Ledeen and others take this analysis and push for the American Imperialists to be that stiff wind?

[Scott Lucas]

Samuel,

No need to be reductionist to score party points --- your own analysis points to difficulties within the regime (even if you don't want to say weakness) because of the hostility to Ahmadinejad. That is not far from my own reading, which has long been that conservative/principlist forces are trying to protect the SL while being willing to jettison the President.

Similarly, you know that EA's main updates did not claim that the 30 December rallies were small; we said, once we got belated pictures/videos that could be treated as authentic, that estimates of the size varied. And you know that those updates did not claim that all who were there were because they were paid/given free food. (There were measures such as free transport in place on the day, which we did note.)

I enjoy your contributions to EA. However, it would be easier to engage with your analysis if you dealt with the information posted here rather than putting up a straw-person caricature.

S.

[Samuel]

Scott,

I agree with you completely on the hostility towards Ahmadinejad from different quarters, much of it deserved I might add. I would like to pin you down on one simple question though.

Do you believe that the the Islamic govt. itself, including the position of the Supreme Leader, is in danger of being overthrown? I am not talking about AN's govt. which could, of course, fall at any point before the next presidential election? I do not believe that this is your view but your analysis, perhaps unintentionally hints at this.

This is the view, as you know, of the neocons and the wild eyed exiles. One good push and "it" goes which is the reason why they advocate direct and immediate outside interference.

[Heidar]

Fresh video from today, demonstrations in front of the Iranian embassy in Denmark: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwSoeROi3B0

[Scott Lucas]

Samuel,

Thank you for the excellent, vital question. I am just heading out for the diversion of the US Super Bowl, and I'm not sure that will conducive to a considered response. So I'll try to put my thoughts down tomorrow for further discussion.

S.

[Bill]

Samuel

In all sincerity what planet are you on? "Business as usual?" Have you missed the fact a regime insider reached out to Moussavi quite publicly through a national paper, two diplomats defected denouncing the regime, the clerics issue another statement chiding the regime, daily arrests of students/protestors, and parnoid announcements of CIA linked spies playing journalist? We all know the regime won't fall due to a "stiff wind" but their actions certaintly say many many cracks exists. Those cracks exist simply because they have so callously violated the consititutional rights of thousands of Iranians simply for voicing disent.

The irony of this whole issue is these totalitarian statesman hiding behind the cloak of religion are oblivious to the fact their actions are driving the people away from religion they hold dear. Can't you see the nation you love has evolved into a police state they will do anything to hold onto power? Frankly I think you see some of it and that is why you come to EA so often! I only hope you open your eyes more to take into account the whole picture. If you and many others don't you may end up with people like Ayatollah Mohammed Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi calling the shots. As your aware this nitwit considers the poeple sheep and we all know he will slaughter those sheep to get his way. For some perspective read the Iranian constitution again and constrast it to violations and ask yourself who really is at fault? It may be hard to hear this form someone anti regime but despite us hailing from land of the "Great Satan" you may be surprised we actually care about Iran and even yourself.

Thx
Bill

[Greeny]

Samuel,

Re. “Do you believe that the the Islamic govt. itself, including the position of the Supreme Leader, is in danger of being overthrown?”

A very good question that someone should put to SL. At least they someone should have asked him this question before the June election.

Every step that SL has taken over the past 8 months has contributed not only to the weakening of his own position within the establishment, but also to the weakening of the foundation of IR. He has stuck himself firmly to one faction within IR. Even so he is not even able to control that faction. The whole establishment is bouncing from one crisis to another, rather like a pinball. SL does not have the insight nor the charisma to lead even his own designated faction through these troubled times. He has not only managed to push away many of the population which he is supposed to lead, but also some of the closest people to himself.

It is quite easy to call people names and say they are themselves or by their actions the “enemy”. Actually leading a country through a crisis requires skills that SL does not have.

By clinging so tightly to his position and by pushing away (and jailing) anyone who criticises the dangerous course of action that SL has taken, he has deprived himself of useful advice.

His speeches show that he sees only two things: himself (the righteous one, the good guy) and the “enemy” (everyone and anyone who does not agree with him 100%). He nowadays equates himself with the entire Islamic Republic. By his actions he pulling the IR down with him.

Through Ahmadinejad, SL has destroyed any belief in what IR has done over the course of its first 26 years. And Ahmadinejad’s record over the past 4.5 years isn’t really a record that one would wish to show off. So by backing Ahmadinejad SL has destroyed the legacy of IR. All that is left now is the military and intelligence tools. And when it comes to these, IR’s own Intelligence Minister said today that many of the military and intelligence officials are now with the protestors.

There is still the power of cake and soft drinks which, judging by the 9 Day demonstrations, don’t seem to have much of an impact.

IR is suffering from a series of serious crises. Instead of trying to overcome them, SL is ignoring them. He is hoping to talk it all away. He seems to think that the current problems in Iran are like a story, one which he can change the ending of to his own liking.

I don’t believe that IR’s fall is imminent (for example it will not fall on 22 Behman), but every day that passes without real and consistent effort to resolve the current crisis, IR faces more danger. It is looking more as if IR would only be able to survive as a military dictatorship, and the chances of survival of such a dictatorship are very limited.

As for the neoconcs... Are they not the people who were for the invasion of Iraq and the ones who thought that they’ll attack on day one and the Iraqis will start loving them for day 3? And are they not the people who’d place quotes from the Bible on the front page oftheir military and security assessment? What is there to say that neoconcs would not like IR to remain in power? It would be a good “enemy” to want to fight. Illogical talk in cheap: be it coming from SL, Ahmadinejad or Palin.

[Iranyar]

IMPORTANT Tips For The Decisive Protests of 22 Bahman.
Please read and inform others. YOU ARE THE MEDIA!
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[Samuel]

Bill,

"In all sincerity what planet are you on?“

On the planet that I live on we have just gone through a horrible worldwide economic crisis and the country which fared best and is now thriving is a highly authoritarian (not totalitarian) state which is now using that success to implement a much more assertive international role. Now we know that in the 1920's and 1930s the economic and political failures in many western "democratic" states called into question the whole western model and made marxist (on the left) and corporative (on the right) alternatives very attractive. Perhaps we are entering a similar era.

Now I know that Iran is not China but the Chinese example does demonstrate the fallacy of equating economic success with the western style "democracy" which so infatuates the greens.

In any event I stand by my basic point which is that the govt. "crisis" of today is hardly unprecedented in the IRI's history. Compare this with the 1980's when the MKO was coming close to completely decapitating the Islamic movement, when so many clerics were getting out of control that Imam Khomeini had to establish a special court to try clerics.

As to the viability of the regime let me point out that the mobilization of the rural areas in support of the govt. that has taken place in the last few years is dare I say "revolutionary". Whatever support the system has lost in the urban areas has been made up away from the capital. Those folks are not for the most part on Twitter or Facebook and so the are either ignored or portrayed as simpletons easily bribed by a hot sandwich.