Saturday
Feb202010
Iran: "It's All Over" for the Green Movement?
Saturday, February 20, 2010 at 7:14 
It is one of the most striking articles to come out of Iran in recent weeks. A journalist for a US newspaper, who has stayed behind when his colleagues have left or been expelled, sits in a kitchen with four Iranian activists:The opposition supporters nervously smoked cigarettes in the kitchen as loud music blared from the empty living room. A student, a businessman, a writer and an artist had planned a victory party but instead were mourning their defeat.
"It's all over," said the student, a young woman in a sleek black dress. "Our only option is to leave the country."
That is the opening of Thomas Erdbrink's atmosphere piece in The Washington Post this morning, and the bleakness is unrelenting:
"It was impossible to join up with other protesters," the student at the party said as she tried to reconstruct what went wrong. "There were just too many security forces."
She took a puff from her 10th cigarette that evening. "We were all supposed to meet up at the main square where Ahmadinejad would speak. There, we would all bring out green ribbons, to show how many we were," she said.
Instead, she found small pockets of protesters in side alleys, not knowing where to go or what to do. "We ended up with a couple thousand people running from the security forces," she said. "Our movement needs new tactics, but I have no idea what we should do."
After (or before?) the encounter in the kitchen, there are the thoughts of the Iranian blogger:
"I hope they can come up with new strategies, but I have no idea what those should be," said an influential blogger who is a member of an unofficial opposition think tank made up of Web activists. He suggested turning the first anniversary of the disputed June 12 presidential election into a day of protest.
"But I guess the government would just repeat what they do normally: declare each protest illegal and flood the streets with security forces," he said.
"In the end, the street is the only place where we can show how many people we are, but few people are ready to go to prison or get hurt," he said.
During recent demonstrations, he recalled, his friends would call him from their homes and offices while he was running from the police.
"If they are not ready to sacrifice anything, why should I be?" he asked. "My personal strategy out of this mess is to apply for a visa for Canada."
After the inclusion of former journalist Abbas Abdi, "There are moments that one person should say: This is how we will do this, whether you like it or not", Erdbrink returns to the gloom of the kitchen:
At the party, there was consensus on one issue. "Just because our protest failed, that doesn't mean we have lost our anger," the student said. "We have a very simple demand: freedom. But I don't see how we can get it."
So that's that, then? With The Post headline blaring, "Iranian opposition demoralized after failed protests at revolution's anniversary", has the white flag been unfurled?
Hmm....
Erdbrink is a very good journalist, and I don't it is possible to overestimate his tenacity in trying to report from Iran when most foreign reporters have deparated the country. That tribute, however, should not stand in the way of critiquing an article which quickly jumps from being an interesting snapshot to posting a once-and-for-all declaration.
A useful start might be another look at that opening paragraph at the failed "victory party". That indicates that Erdbrink's kitchen interview took place on 22 Bahman (11 February).
That was, indeed, a depressing day for many in the Iranian opposition. But I don't think it is a wild claim to suggest that the mood might not be permanent and/or fatal to the movement. In the following nine days, there have been re-assessments and renewed declarations. There has been not only the signal of the meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi but also statements from other reformist groups and activist organisations.
Of course, it would be a jump from analysis to speculation to argue that these numerous but often scattered signs mean that the opposition has regained the momentum of Ashura (27 December). For Erdbrink, however,
all of this can be set aside on the basis of his four depressed partiers, one blogger, and one "political analyst": "The government's strategy might eventually backfire, but for the time being, it has served to justify authorities' dismissal of the opposition as a meaningless band of foreign-backed counterrevolutionary rioters."
Reporting, especially first-hand reporting, is valuable. Sweeping predictions are dangerous. Erdbrink's article is likely to race around the Internet and discussion boards today as the definition of "defeat", but another nine days from now, its declarations will likely be another footnote to this ongoing conflict.
Marathon, not a sprint.
Reader Comments (42)
Q) where does @washingtonpost get info from in iran from scott?im just curious if they indeed get it from an independent source or press tv ~sorry cant spell tonight~apoligies
According to Wikipedia, the Washington Post was one of the biggest cheerleaders for the invasion of Iraq in 2003. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Washington_Post (scroll down to "Political Stance")
So this fits in with what I've said before, the people who want war (either because of some ideology or out of investments in the arms industry, or both) are the people telling Americans, "Iranians are not like you. They don't really want freedom. Forget them." There are people like this on both the right and the left, but that's how you can tell they are warmongers, because they constantly predict the demise of the Green Movement.
For the hawks pressuring the Obama Administration to war, the Green Movement is a big problem. The last thing warmongers want is Americans actually CARING about the "collateral damage" on the ground. This past summer, Americans began to see Iranians as not only freedom-loving people like themselves, but actually pretty awesome patriots, like America's own Founders born again in the living flesh!
This is all a big nuisance to those who wanted Americans to keep thinking of Iranians as a vague crowd of black-clad fanatics who worship their Supreme Leader! Warmongers WISH it was all over, but too bad for them! Nobody's backing down, nobody's stopping, and the only thing that's "over" is Khamenei's gravy train!
Maliheh,
Washington Post is one of the fewest "Western" newspapers with a reporter (Thomas Erdbrink) inside Iran. For all of my qualms about this article, it is a tribute to Erdbrink that he was even able to get to a 22 Bahman party, given that most non-Iranian reporters have been effectively confined to their offices. Erdbrink also has a good set of contacts amongst Iranian journalists and bloggers.
S.
thank you scott=)i wont argue on this matter i will continue the sea of green reporting i do beleive iranians cannot win without the army or at least rafsanjani..and rafsanjani has turned in to a "yes man" to khamenei
i do agree with rev~ some washingtonpost is Fabricated news stories (when writers simply *make stuff up*) happen. For all the lies spread about sea of green is dead propaganda in some of the Western media this article from there does seem to be from the "bomb iran" crowd
i do agree with rev~ some washingtonpost is Fabricated news stories (when writers simply *make stuff up*) happen. For all the lies spread about sea of green being dead is all propaganda and in some of the Western media, this article from there does seem to be from the “bomb iran” crowd ~jus sayin
Oh yeah Mr. Erdbrink, four people are definitely statistically significant sample size for millions of Iranians in Green Movement!!!!!!!!!!!! You really broke this one!!!!!!!!
Mr. Erdbrink deserves Gold medal in downhill on conjecture mountain. His stereotyping of Iranians as chain smokers especially Iranian women as chain smokers in sleek black dresses is a gem that tells us a lot about him. He has not just stayed behind in Iran; he really is a “stayed behind”, period.
I think everyone knows this issue is infinitely larger than 4 disappointed individuals - even if they represent 4000 more. I, too, know young Iranians who are applying for visas right, left and centre - but this was true before the elections. Charles Recknagel of FRE/RL says there's a lot more to the Green Movement than just a quest for "freedom": ".. political slogans and charges of stolen presidential elections are just part of the explosive mix that keeps the Green Movement alive. Equally important is frustration over Iran's double-digit unemployment rate and the usually double-digit inflation rate. It is this frustration that ultimately may be more dangerous for the regime than electoral grievances."
http://www.rferl.org/content/Why_Irans_Green_Movement_Objects_To_Presidents_Economic_Style/1962912.html
Also, the debate on whether the Greens were "defeated" is still going on over at Tehran Bureau in the comments to Muhammad Sahaimi's article of 12 February, 'Were the Greens defeated?' The author's conclusion is: "In short, this was not a victory, but a defeat for the hardliners. Eight months after the rigged presidential election of June 12, the Green Movement is alive and well." and "The final lesson is that the struggle for democracy in Iran is a war of attrition, not a swift "shock and awe" campaign, a marathon, not a sprint."
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/02/-opinion-many-had.html
A(ny) movement cannot continuously and permanently make itself felt and show its impact on the streets - that would not make any sense over the long-term - ,
but needs patience and time (!!!!) to entrench itself into the fabrics of society
(i.e.
spreading its influence into any possible associations, clubs, trade/workers/employee unions;
taking up social, environmental, budgetary issues [and possibly founding (a) grass-roots organisation(s)/political party(ies) dealing with such issues]) .
THE MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRACY IS THE ONLY GUARANTEE AGAINST A MILITARY STRIKE
Karim Sadjadpour, a renowned expert on Iran at the international think tank, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and considered a leading researcher on Iran issues, with close connections to the Obama administration, emphasizes that as long as Iran's internal opposition continues to agitate, there is less of a likelihood of a military strike. But if, by 2011, the opposition movement has faded, and Iran is defiantly moving forward - toward a weapons capability - the likelihood of such a strike goes up significantly.
Source: Interview "Iranian Opposition - 'Running a Marathon, Not a Sprint'"
SPIEGEL Online - February 17th, 2010
www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,678447,00.html
GLOBAL POLITICS AND A MILITARY STRIKE
The clear indication now is that the Russians will sign on for a U.S. push toward tougher sanctions — if true, a major dividend for Obama's decision to shelve a missile-defense program in Eastern Europe. On Feb. 9, Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia's Presidential Security Council, said Iran's "actions ... raise doubts in other countries and those doubts are quite valid." This might leave Beijing in a place it can hardly want to be: isolated on the Security Council.
The message within the UN now to Beijing could well be: The only thing that may stand between an eventual Israeli air strike and the resulting chaos in the Persian Gulf is you.
So just how does China define its "overall and long-term interests'' in Iran? We're about to find out.
Source: “China's Iran Dilemma” by Bill Powell
TIME magazine – 22.02.2010
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1963587,00.html
http://www.theiranfist.com/post/389314539/you-win-now-let-us-mourn-our-loss
Yeah, let them mourn their loss at an intersection somewhere, not in a kitchen!
That evening, many in the Green Movement felt depressed. The day had not turned out as some had anticipated. Yet starting the next morning, we went on to learn from the events and also from our mistakes. We had no choice, just as we had no choice on June 13th. This movement started, when we were pushed to the wall and could do nothing but scream "stop". Now, they are pushing us further via violence and terror. On the other hand , there are Iran's real economic problems and there is the nuclear issue as well as the threat of further sanctions. Can we stop and go to business as usual under these circumstances?! We have no choice but to learn and regroup and that is just what we are doing.
Thomas Erdbrink is a Dutch journalist, writing for the Dutch national 'quality' newspaper NRC. He has lived in Tehran for many years now, is married to an Iranian photographer - and has written numerous articles on real life in Iran. He was one of the few who was able to enlighten his Dutch audience on the schizophrenic society Iran was (and probably still is).
But things have changed.
Not Erdbrink though: he still writes from within.
The biggest shame here is how his story in the Washington Post is so different from the (original?) Dutch one in NRC. I suspect it has been totally re-edited.
The NRC version is much longer and has more nuance. A perfectly written background story on the atmosphere, shortly after February 11th. Not a hard fact news story.
The title: Opposition Iran is at a loss - for the moment. Subtitle: Authorities deploy massive police force and people fear violence.
The remarks in the WP version of journalist Abbas Abdi, blaming the opposition not to take the lead, are absent from the Dutch version. (Maybe removed but his Dutch editor?)
Instead he says - in the Dutch version:
If the government thinks the opposition has been defeated, they are making a big mistake. "It's not difficult at all to squash a movement by suppression." But according to Abdi the leaders are digging their own grave if they become more and more reliant on force in order to suffocate the unrest. "That would mean they will fall into a trap that eventually will lead to their own defeat. They may feel strong, but the only real solution is compromise with the opposition."
And that is how the Dutch article ends...
Unfortunately Erdbrink probably has no idea what happened to his story at the WP editors desk: his internet connection is as slow as any other in Tehran. He hasn't been able to maintain his very popular weblog http://www.onzemaninteheran.com (in Dutch) since March last year.
I wonder how he feels if he sees what happened to his story - I mean the American version.
But that's 'official' media for you...
I am sooo thankful for this blog! When I saw the article, my heart sank. Stuff like this ebbs and flows. Setbacks (or things that *seem* to be setbacks, superficially) happen.
No matter what happens on any given day, I believe with all my heart, Iran, that your spirit and your decency WILL prevail and I have no doubt that your intellect will find a way.
You guys are in my prayers daily and will always be.
Back to planet earth for a second. The most important quotes from the article are set forth below.
"It's all over," said the student, a young woman in a sleek black dress. "Our only option is to leave the country."
"If they are not ready to sacrifice anything, why should I be?" he asked. "My personal strategy out of this mess is to apply for a visa for Canada."
YES greenies keep applying for those coveted visas!!! I have a suggestion that will fullfill the greenie's fondest hopes. Emigrate to GREECE the cradle of the western civilization and "DEMOCRACY" which you so adore. They'll be happy to have you. And as a bonus I hear Greece is doing very well economically these days.
It is well past time for the delusional greenies to emigrate to the western societies which so infatuate them. Even the economic problems in the IRI which the green propagandists are so fond of highlighting are often misunderstood. The sectors of the population that support the IRI will stay put and stay loyal to the system even if their standard of living declines; it is the dissident students and their ilk who who already have one foot in the west who will be pushed to join the hallucinating and daydreaming emigre community abroad.
Oh fun! Samuel's back!
Thank you, WitteKr, for writing the comment regarding Eberdink. I was planning to write something similar when I got home today. I thought it strange that his WP article seemed so uncharacteristically lacking in nuance for a piece based on interviews with ordinary people. I didn't know he had already written a Dutch version of it for the NRC - the Dutch newspaper where his work generally appears. The differences between the two have put me at ease. Since you've already posted his blog, allow me to post a link to his wife's site, photographer Newsha Tavakolian, whose work was on the cover of National Geographic's special Iran edition of August 2008: http://www.newshatavakolian.com/#p=-1&a=0&at=0
Eberdink has lived in Tehran since 2001 with his wife and 2 daughters on the 12th floor of an apartment block, with the in-laws just around the corner. He speaks Persian and his blog, unfortunately not updated since Nowruz 2009, was a treasure trove of everything from lengthy debates on Persian history to wry tales of the neighbourhood cable guy's efforts to combat municipal government scrambling of satellite signals by outfitting residents' dishes with aluminum foil and other fruits of his ingenuity. I can only imagine that someone let him know that if he wanted to stay in the country his delightfully ironic portrayals of Iranian politics and politicians, as well as his other keen insider/outsider observatons of everday life, would have to stop. His work for the WP is most likely heavily edited. Maybe Scott knows something more about this?
I'm not sure where western media (and apparently some of the green movement activists that they're interviewing) got the idea that mass protests on national holidays are the ONLY tactic that an opposition to a dictatorship can use.
Mass street protests are a very effective but also very fragile tactic since they can disperse/die down once the dictatorship cracks down violently. The reality is that even if not a single protester came out on the streets, the Islamic Republic is still at a "1989" stage of a dictatorship. All of its symbols have been shown to be hypocritical or turned against it. It can no longer provide economic progress (even in a time of unprecedentedly high oil prices) and in fact has to face the spectre of how it can hold power in a state of permanent economic decline. It can no longer count on the loyalty of its own armed forces. Its aura of popular legitimacy is forever shattered because of the election campaign, the lack of credibility of the Regime's claimed result, and the mass protests after the election.
I have no idea where the Washington Post got the idea that the government is only imperiled as long as the opposition is demonstrating in the hundreds of thousands. Possibly it is a misinterpretation and over-emphasis on the velvet revolutions of 1989 to the exclusion of all other historical precedents of dictatorships collapsing. My perception is that oil revenues exclusively have allowed Khamenei to maintain a semblance of control over the security forces but that the government isn't sure how to maintain that as the economic situation deteriorates. We can already see that the very existence of the Green Movement is beginning to embolden labor unrest and embolden critics of the government's economic performance within conservative circles (openly in parliament). None of this is the sign of a secure dictatorship. Despite the ridiculous stranglehold Khamenei has on any information coming in or out of the country, this regime looks as isolated as any I have ever seen even on the brink of its collapse. The only explanation for its continued hold is the massive amount of oil revenue which as long as it is rising allows Khamenei/Ahmadinejad to pay off as many people in the security forces as it needs to for the time being. If the opposition really wants to end this soon I think acts of sabotage on the oil industry and encouraging strikes in industries necessary to oil production would be by far the most effective tactic.
Oil revenues are Khamenei's lifeblood and Achilles heel.
WitteKr Thanks for sharing that info about a different version of the article! I was thinking to myself, I bet this article is not what that guy originally wrote. Editors always choose a sensationalistic headline, and it seems like in this case they've actually done more extensive edits to make an atmosphere piece about a particular day seem like a predictive analysis piece about the future of a movement!
Definitely editorial dirty tricks, probably not at all what the reporter intended!
Maliheh, I agree there seems to be the same bias in this paper now as there was in 2003! Not necessarily pro left or pro right, but pro WAR! It's even more insidious than just posting fake news, they put a grain of truth in it and spin it to their advantage.
i dont beleive these general strikes will ever end in iran, way to much blood has been shed,rather western media wants them to end or not, rather its left or right im more of a la times reader than washington post ,im not sure how these protests will end i dont beleive in "only striking national holidays" as progress or waiting until march 16..pro govt malitia were ready for greens on feb 11
Publicola, thanks for sharing those thoughts by Karim Sadjadpour: "as long as Iran’s internal opposition continues to agitate, there is less of a likelihood of a military strike. But if, by 2011, the opposition movement has faded, and Iran is defiantly moving forward – toward a weapons capability – the likelihood of such a strike goes up significantly."
This is what I was trying so longwindedly to say the past two days! Some conspiracy theorists have harassed Green activists, accusing the movement of being a front to encourage a strike on Iran, supposedly to "save the poor Iranian people" from their government. We've tried telling those conspiracy theorists that the Greens never have and never would ask for American military help, it's the LAST thing they'd ever want, but the response was always just, "Oh that's what you WOULD say, you warmongers in disguise!"
I hope this article in the WaPo, notorious war cheerleader, clears things up for those who say the Greens are encouraging a war. Clearly, those who are pro-war would prefer if the Green Movement died quietly and was completely forgotten by the American public, and it's easy to see why. As long as the Green Movement lives, and Americans still support it, it'll be very difficult to convince Americans that "collateral damage" to Iranians is acceptable. American activists supporting Greens will be very vocal in demanding the US government find another way to deal with problems, one that doesn't involve bombing their friends!
Thank you WitteKr, what a relief to hear that side of the story!
Thanks so much, Rev. Magdalen, for this your response [to the Spiegel-Online-interview]
and thanks especially for your contributions in general !
WitteKr,
Thank you for helping us to read between the lines. I wish I could read Dutch.
WitteKr, Catherine,
Why do you think the staff writer at Washington Post has taken the liberty to change Mr. Erdbrink article 180 degree in the opposite direction? It is not because the staff writer does not understand Dutch (if indeed the article was written in Dutch), is it?
Zee,
He unfortunately had never left.