The Latest from Iran (20 February): Questions

1730 GMT: Political Prisoner Update. Lawyer Massoud Aghaee was freed last night on bail. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109018)

1710 GMT: The Iranian Parliament has launched its 4th enquiry into the Kahrizak Prison abuses. (http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/feb/20/1244)

1655 GMT: Economic Projections. Key member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has warned of possible zero growth or contraction in the economy in 2010-11. (http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13758)

1645 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi has declared that officials should serve the people and that if the people do not appear in public anymore, there will be great difficulties. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109009)

1640 GMT: Conservative Watch. Mohsen Rezaei, Presidential candidate and Secretary of the Expediency Coucil, has called on the Council to "apply corrections" to electoral laws. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109015)

1630 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Expediency Council, has declared at a Council meetint that "exclusion, elimination, and insulting" of figures in the Iranian system is a poison to domestic affairs and should be stopped.

Rafsanjani, reaffirming his position, declared that 22 Bahman invited Iranians to unity, following the Supreme Leader.
(http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109080)

1620 GMT: Afternoon Economy Watch. Bus drivers have gathered in front of the Social Security building in Tehran to protest against working conditions. (http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13750)

Iranian Labor News Agency warns that factories in many industrial sectors face closure. (http://www.ilna.ir/fullStory.aspx?ID=109010)

At least 1500 jobs have been lost in recent shutdowns. (http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/feb/19/1237)

Alireza Mahjoub, the head of a workers' syndicate, has said the promise of 50 percent increase in oil prices in next year's budget is "bizarre and inaccurate". (http://www.ilna.ir/fullStory.aspx?ID=109089)

1120 GMT: This Month's Twitter-Bash. This is almost as predictable as British weather: every few weeks, someone in the "thinking" press patches together faulty assumptions, a mis-understanding of social media, an Iran anecdote, and an "analyst" to claim that he/she has discovered: Twitter Had Nothing to Do With Post-Elections Events in Iran Whatsoever.

This month's 15-second fame of Twitter-bashing is enjoyed by Mary Fitzgerald of The Irish Times. She is not as obnoxious or arrogant as Will Heaven, but the piece plumbs the same shallow waters of "analysis" that does no justice to social media or, more importantly, to those in Iran. (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/weekend/2010/0220/1224264860222.html)

1045 GMT: The Flag Flap (cont.). Well, I guess the issue of the magically changing colour of the Iranian flag --- from red/white/green to red/white/blue --- isn't just a joke any longer.

At least not for the President's office: it has issued a statement that "light reflection twisted the colour" of the flag at Ahmadinejad's press conference this week. (http://bit.ly/crcDMW)

0905 GMT: Moscow's Two-Faced Missiles. Russia, meanwhile, plays its own game with Iran. Having given Israel one message by holding up immediate delivery of S-300 missiles to Tehran, Moscow balanced with reassurance to Iran on Friday. Press TV quotes Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, “There is a contract to supply these systems to Iran, and we will fulfill it … Delays (with deliveries) are linked to technical problems with adjusting these systems."

NEW Iran: “It’s All Over” for the Green Movement?

Iran & the “Non-Bomb”: The Real Story on Tehran’s Nuclear Programme

Iran Book Update: No More Good Reads in Tehran

Iran: Are The Banks Failing?

The Latest from Iran (19 February): Finding the Real Stories

0900 GMT: McClatchy News Service gets inside information on nuclear developments:

Iran has just sent a letter to the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, repeating its request for fuel to run a research reactor in Tehran that produces nuclear isotopes for medical purposes, according to U.S. and European officials.

They are readi
ng the letter as Iran's latest, and perhaps final, rejection of an offer the United States and five other countries made last October to provide the fuel by taking low-enriched uranium out of Iran and enriching it for use in the research reactor.....

"We understand that Iran has recently sent a letter to the IAEA that simply repeats its request from last year for assistance to acquire fuel - a request the IAEA has responded appropriately to with its offer last October," National Security Council spokesman Michael Hammer said.

"We see nothing new, and it would appear to reiterate Iran's rejection of the IAEA's proposal. Coupled with the IAEA's latest report on Iran's nuclear program, this reinforces why our concerns about Iran's nuclear intentions are deepening."

In other words, diplomatic stalemate. Tehran will continue to put forth its request for uranium through purchase or a swap inside Iran, while "the West" will insist on a swap in a third country. This could drag on for some time: both sides are getting public-relations value out of their positions.

0758 GMT: Cheeky Challenge of the Day. At the risk of reviving our own whimsical story of the changing colours of the Iranian flag, we read this morning:

A reformist member of Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Mahdi Shahriari said that if the replacement of color green with blue in Iranian national flag at the recent state ceremonies attended by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was deliberate, the president should answer for the change.

Speaking to Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) Shahriari, a member of national security and foreign policy commission of the Parliament (Majlis) added: "Such alteration is subject to questioning and giving notice to its perpetrators because it's against the constitution of Islamic Republic of Iran."

And where did we encounter this story? In some pernicious outlet of the Green Movement, spreading disinformation and trouble?

No. The recycling of the ILNA story comes from the pro-Larijani Khabar Online.

0755 GMT: The biggest question, however, is not over Tehran's nuclear intentions but over the state of the Green Movement. In The Washington Post, Thomas Erdbrink posts a devastating article which claims, from interviews inside Iran, that the opposition is crippled, if not over. We've offered a response.

0730 GMT: A Saturday morning which starts with questions and diversions. The "Western" news agenda is still dominated by the nuclear issue, but there are breaks in the narrative of an inevitable Iran march to the bomb. The Washington Post, a long-time bell-ringer of the Iranian threat, has this paragraph in its editorial, "Clamping Down on Iran's Nuclear Ambitions":

The number of working centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment plant is declining, though the overall output is still increasing. A recent study by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) showed that more than half of the Natanz plant's 8,700 centrifuges were not working in November; the new IAEA report records a further decline. Iran's enrichment of its stockpile is also proceeding at a snail's pace.

On the other side, the Supreme Leader's rhetoric, as he celebrated the commissioning of Iran's first domestically-made destroyer, deserves a bit of attention: "Our religious beliefs and principles prohibit such weapons as they are the symbol of destruction of generations. And for this reason we do not believe in weapons and atomic bombs and do not seek them."

While this could be read as a boiler-plate denial --- why give the game away if Tehran was pushing for a military programme? --- it may also be a signal to the "West", especially the US Government, that Iran still wants "engagement" through nuclear talks. (It should not be forgotten that President Obama made at least two direct appeals in letters to Ayatollah Khamenei.)

Inside Iran, it was a quieter Friday, but ripples of confrontation continue. The Kahrizak Prison scandal resurfaced as member of Parliament Parviz Sorouri said that the cause of the death of Ramin Aqazadeh Qahremani is not yet known. Three protesters are already confirmed to have died from abuse in Kahrizak. detention center.

Comments

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[...] The Latest from Iran (20 February): Questions | Enduring America [...]

[Catherine]

RE 0900 GMT: McClatchy News Service gets inside information on nuclear developments ...

And Scott Ritter gets deep inside how one of the most telling indicators of failed nonproliferation policy on the part of the Obama administration is the fact that there has been no progress on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, and in particular the ongoing controversy surrounding a proposed uranium exchange.
http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/index.php?q=node/9430

[Catherine]

RE 1120 GMT: This Month’s Twitter-Bash.

Sorry mate, but much more interesting Iran internet fodder is provided today by the Green Voice of Freedom in their article, Who are the 'Iranian Cyber Army'?
http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/feb/19/1236

[Arshama]

Catherine,

Thanks for this useful article on the 'Iranian Cyber Army'.
China seems to act in a very similar way, according to James C. Mulvenon, a Chinese military specialist and a director at the Center for Intelligence Research and Analysis in Washington. Rather than tightly compartmentalizing online espionage within agencies as the United States does, he said, the Chinese government often involves volunteer “patriotic hackers” to support its policies."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/19/technology/19china.html?scp=1&sq=google%20china&st=cse

[Ali Khamenei]

We are aware of the silliness of the foreign media. Our scholars around the world study it carefully. Our Institute of Foreign Studies has been quite successful in establishing branches all over the world to study foreign cultures and art. One of the colleges has recently formed a student organization called the Neville Chamberlain Club for Obedience Studies (NCCOS). The students have recently asked me if I would compose a song for them that would be appropriate in a foreign country. I have given them special permission to listen to this, my lyrical pronouncement:
It's My Party

It's my party
and I'll lie if I want to
be dire if I want to
have ire if I want to

You would lie too
in a coup for you

velayat-e faqih

I tried to arrange
just approved candidates
but Mousavi showed me no love

Karroubi
another who sank
from endorsing my
coup d' état

It's my party and
I'll be dire if I want to
lie if I want to
make you cry if I want to

You would lie too
in a coup for you

velayat-e faqih

I tried to create
a nuclear bomb
but uranium's hard to find

I - R - G - C
and scientists do
but for my
coup de théâtre

It's my party
and I'll lie if I want to
be dire if I want to
have ire if I want to

You would lie too
in a coup for you

velayat-e faqih

The students have studied the Western decadent song and we have corrected it. The NCCOS has supplied a reference note for the documentation of their research paper which is to appear soon in their journal.
Lesley Gore : It's My Party
Songwriters: Gluck, John, Jr.; Gold, Wally; Wiener, Herb; Gottlieb Seymour;
http://www.metrolyrics.com/its-my-party-lyrics-lesley-gore.html

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[...] Februar 2010 von Julia Veröffentlicht auf Mehr News am 20. Februar 2010 Zitiert von Enduring America Quelle (Englisch): [...]

[Catherine]

I love these quotes from the NYT article Arshama cites above in post 4:

Spokesmen for the Chinese schools said they had not heard that American investigators had traced the Google attacks to their campuses.

... But when asked about the possibility, a leading professor in Jiaotong’s School of Information Security Engineering said in a telephone interview: “I’m not surprised. Actually students hacking into foreign Web sites is quite normal.” The professor, who teaches Web security, asked not to be named for fear of reprisal.

“I believe there’s two kinds of situations,” the professor continued. “One is it’s a completely individual act of wrongdoing, done by one or two geek students in the school who are just keen on experimenting with their hacking skills learned from the school [me: !!!!!], since the sources in the school and network are so limited. Or it could be that one of the university’s I.P. addresses was hijacked by others, which frequently happens.”

[Adam]

"Key member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has warned of possible zero growth or contraction in the economy in 2010-11."

Now even hardline parliamentarians are acknowledging that the economy is likely in recession. Keep in mind this is despite oil prices that are 8 times higher than those 10 years ago and the government is almost entirely funded by oil revenues.
And just days ago I was being accused of "wishful thinking" for disputing the official figures of over 3% growth for last year.
Believing this government's economic estimates is purposefully misinforming yourself. With extremely high inflation rates (feared by some within the government to exceed 40% this year), Ahmadinejad's lying about the inflation rate by even a few percentage points can lead to a totally different picture of Iran's economy. By underestimating the inflation rate by 13% (which is actually a conservative estimate), Iran's 3% growth turns into a 10% decline (which I think is completely plausible). It's called lying with statistics, and inflation is the statistic that Ahmadinejad has been caught lying about the most.
The deterioration in Iran's economic situation has become the story to watch right now. Much like with the Soviet Union in the 1980s, the IMF and other global institutions are naively buying into the statistical manipulations of an imperiled totalitarian state.

[Eowyn9]

"The President’s office...has issued a statement that “light reflection twisted the colour” of the flag at Ahmadinejad’s press conference this week."

Calling all cartoonists to step up with the "halo" jokes...

[Ali Khamenei]

Adam,
From here on Enduring America, Feb 19 http://enduringamerica.com/2010/02/19/iran-are-the-banks-failing/" rel="nofollow">Iran:Are The Banks Failing :
"[ ...statement by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad two days earlier regarding the elimination of “three zeros” from the currency, due to its drop in value, and the government’s intention to restore the Iranian currency to its http://www.france24.com/en/20100120-iran-plans-knock-three-zeros-off-currency-report" rel="nofollow">“real value.”
     ...unsupervised funds, borrowed from an Iranian state bank at 12 percent, may be re-lent in the bazaar at rates up to 30 to 45 percent ]"
Isn't this too ridiculous to be believed. Mahmoud is just silly sometimes and we'll correct him to avoid more rumors. The banking system is in fine shape and as the article shows, we'll just print more money because we haven't come close to the extremes of places like Zimbabwe....

[Doug]

Adam,
None of the articles seem to make sense. Each is full of contradictions.
     From the France24 report http://www.france24.com/en/20100120-iran-plans-knock-three-zeros-off-currency-report" rel="nofollow">LINK
"The rial has dropped on international exchanges from 70 to the dollar at the time of the Islamic revolution in 1979 to around 10,000 rials today."
And all around the world we hear similar stories, that is, money is stolen for non-productive purposes and replaced by more money printed by governments. But yet, there's no dire inflation? How is all of this built-up inflation pressure avoided? Or is it suddenly going to explode?

[Catherine]

@ Eowyn9

LOL! Those are some cartoons I'd luv to see.
But this is actually being taken very seriously. A reformist member of Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Mahdi Shahriari has said that if the alteration of the Iranian national flag during recent state ceremonies attended by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was deliberate, he would have to be questioned on the matter. http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/feb/20/1239

[rezvan]

Who says there is no freedom of expression in IRI and that it is a dictatorship. If similar comments were made by an ordinary MP against that good US ally, Mubarak of Egypt, he would probably be in prison by now or been beaten up by the official police. We love Egyptian 'democracy' for their leaders do what we tell them, but we hate Iranian 'democracy', they just stubbornly refuse to do what we tell them. And quite frankly we are not used to anyone telling us that actually we, as Emperors of the world, are actually walking around naked. We have supported and support some of the most vile regimes in the world and now just to prove how 'democratic' we are, we are inviting those detested Talibans who aided, abetted and harboured our most famous terrorist 'Osama bin Laden' back into the fold and the ex-Baathists of Iraq over whom we spent billions of our taxpayers hard earned wealth to liberate them from tyranny and bring them to democracy, only to want them back.

By these standard the AN/VF alliance looks pretty sane and consistent. I suggest the contributors here take a closer look in the mirror to see what a monster the US has become. If it was a true advocate of democracy, it should have recognised Hamas a long while back. But of course we only like democrats who do what we tell them and know their place.