Middle East Inside Line: Dubai Killing, French FM on "Palestinian State", Moscow Missiles to Tehran?

Israel's Official Response on Dubai: Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon said on Saturday that there was no evidence tying Israel to the assassination of Hamas strongman Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai. He added:

I don't forsee a crisis with European allies because there is nothing that ties Israel to the assassination.

Britain, France and Germany all share our interests in the battle against global terror, therefore there will be no crisis, instead our relations [with these countries] will continue to deepen.

Palestinian-French Relations: French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner told the French Journal du Dimanche that the assassination in Dubai underscores the need for peace in the Middle East and demonstrates the need for an immediate recognition of a Palestinian state.

Before Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas's scheduled visit to Paris next week, Kouchner said, referring to Abbas's reportedly acceptance of indirect talks under U.S. mediation:

France is training Palestinian police, businesses are being created in the West Bank... It follows that one can envision the proclamation soon of a Palestinian state, and its immediate recognition by the international community, even before negotiating its borders.

Palestinian Authority leader Salam Fayyad had said on Friday:

If by mid-2011, the political process has not ended the [Israeli] occupation, I would bet that the developed state of Palestinian infrastructure and institutions will be such that the pressure will force Israel to give up its occupation.

Russia to Deliver S-300s to Iran: Interfax news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying that Russia intends to fulfill a contract to supply S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran. He said:

There is a contract to supply these systems to Iran, and we will fulfill it. Delays (with deliveries) are linked to technical problems with adjusting these systems.

It is absolutely incorrect to put the emphasis on the issue of S-300 supplies... and to turn it into a major problem, to say nothing of linking it to the discussion on restoring trust in the purely peaceful character of Iran's nuclear program.

Syrian-Israeli Row: Following the meeting between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with the French Prime Minister Francois Fillon on Friday, Syrian Prime Minister Naji al-Otari warned Israel Saturday that any new Middle East war would be catastrophic for the region and beyond.

The Latest from Iran (20 February): Questions

1730 GMT: Political Prisoner Update. Lawyer Massoud Aghaee was freed last night on bail. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109018)

1710 GMT: The Iranian Parliament has launched its 4th enquiry into the Kahrizak Prison abuses. (http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/feb/20/1244)

1655 GMT: Economic Projections. Key member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has warned of possible zero growth or contraction in the economy in 2010-11. (http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13758)

1645 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi has declared that officials should serve the people and that if the people do not appear in public anymore, there will be great difficulties. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109009)

1640 GMT: Conservative Watch. Mohsen Rezaei, Presidential candidate and Secretary of the Expediency Coucil, has called on the Council to "apply corrections" to electoral laws. (http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109015)

1630 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Expediency Council, has declared at a Council meetint that "exclusion, elimination, and insulting" of figures in the Iranian system is a poison to domestic affairs and should be stopped.

Rafsanjani, reaffirming his position, declared that 22 Bahman invited Iranians to unity, following the Supreme Leader.
(http://www.ilna.ir/newsText.aspx?ID=109080)

1620 GMT: Afternoon Economy Watch. Bus drivers have gathered in front of the Social Security building in Tehran to protest against working conditions. (http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13750)

Iranian Labor News Agency warns that factories in many industrial sectors face closure. (http://www.ilna.ir/fullStory.aspx?ID=109010)

At least 1500 jobs have been lost in recent shutdowns. (http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/feb/19/1237)

Alireza Mahjoub, the head of a workers' syndicate, has said the promise of 50 percent increase in oil prices in next year's budget is "bizarre and inaccurate". (http://www.ilna.ir/fullStory.aspx?ID=109089)

1120 GMT: This Month's Twitter-Bash. This is almost as predictable as British weather: every few weeks, someone in the "thinking" press patches together faulty assumptions, a mis-understanding of social media, an Iran anecdote, and an "analyst" to claim that he/she has discovered: Twitter Had Nothing to Do With Post-Elections Events in Iran Whatsoever.

This month's 15-second fame of Twitter-bashing is enjoyed by Mary Fitzgerald of The Irish Times. She is not as obnoxious or arrogant as Will Heaven, but the piece plumbs the same shallow waters of "analysis" that does no justice to social media or, more importantly, to those in Iran. (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/weekend/2010/0220/1224264860222.html)

1045 GMT: The Flag Flap (cont.). Well, I guess the issue of the magically changing colour of the Iranian flag --- from red/white/green to red/white/blue --- isn't just a joke any longer.

At least not for the President's office: it has issued a statement that "light reflection twisted the colour" of the flag at Ahmadinejad's press conference this week. (http://bit.ly/crcDMW)

0905 GMT: Moscow's Two-Faced Missiles. Russia, meanwhile, plays its own game with Iran. Having given Israel one message by holding up immediate delivery of S-300 missiles to Tehran, Moscow balanced with reassurance to Iran on Friday. Press TV quotes Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, “There is a contract to supply these systems to Iran, and we will fulfill it … Delays (with deliveries) are linked to technical problems with adjusting these systems."

NEW Iran: “It’s All Over” for the Green Movement?

Iran & the “Non-Bomb”: The Real Story on Tehran’s Nuclear Programme

Iran Book Update: No More Good Reads in Tehran

Iran: Are The Banks Failing?

The Latest from Iran (19 February): Finding the Real Stories

0900 GMT: McClatchy News Service gets inside information on nuclear developments:

Iran has just sent a letter to the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, repeating its request for fuel to run a research reactor in Tehran that produces nuclear isotopes for medical purposes, according to U.S. and European officials.

They are readi
ng the letter as Iran's latest, and perhaps final, rejection of an offer the United States and five other countries made last October to provide the fuel by taking low-enriched uranium out of Iran and enriching it for use in the research reactor.....

"We understand that Iran has recently sent a letter to the IAEA that simply repeats its request from last year for assistance to acquire fuel - a request the IAEA has responded appropriately to with its offer last October," National Security Council spokesman Michael Hammer said.

"We see nothing new, and it would appear to reiterate Iran's rejection of the IAEA's proposal. Coupled with the IAEA's latest report on Iran's nuclear program, this reinforces why our concerns about Iran's nuclear intentions are deepening."

In other words, diplomatic stalemate. Tehran will continue to put forth its request for uranium through purchase or a swap inside Iran, while "the West" will insist on a swap in a third country. This could drag on for some time: both sides are getting public-relations value out of their positions.

0758 GMT: Cheeky Challenge of the Day. At the risk of reviving our own whimsical story of the changing colours of the Iranian flag, we read this morning:

A reformist member of Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Mahdi Shahriari said that if the replacement of color green with blue in Iranian national flag at the recent state ceremonies attended by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was deliberate, the president should answer for the change.

Speaking to Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) Shahriari, a member of national security and foreign policy commission of the Parliament (Majlis) added: "Such alteration is subject to questioning and giving notice to its perpetrators because it's against the constitution of Islamic Republic of Iran."

And where did we encounter this story? In some pernicious outlet of the Green Movement, spreading disinformation and trouble?

No. The recycling of the ILNA story comes from the pro-Larijani Khabar Online.

0755 GMT: The biggest question, however, is not over Tehran's nuclear intentions but over the state of the Green Movement. In The Washington Post, Thomas Erdbrink posts a devastating article which claims, from interviews inside Iran, that the opposition is crippled, if not over. We've offered a response.

0730 GMT: A Saturday morning which starts with questions and diversions. The "Western" news agenda is still dominated by the nuclear issue, but there are breaks in the narrative of an inevitable Iran march to the bomb. The Washington Post, a long-time bell-ringer of the Iranian threat, has this paragraph in its editorial, "Clamping Down on Iran's Nuclear Ambitions":

The number of working centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment plant is declining, though the overall output is still increasing. A recent study by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) showed that more than half of the Natanz plant's 8,700 centrifuges were not working in November; the new IAEA report records a further decline. Iran's enrichment of its stockpile is also proceeding at a snail's pace.

On the other side, the Supreme Leader's rhetoric, as he celebrated the commissioning of Iran's first domestically-made destroyer, deserves a bit of attention: "Our religious beliefs and principles prohibit such weapons as they are the symbol of destruction of generations. And for this reason we do not believe in weapons and atomic bombs and do not seek them."

While this could be read as a boiler-plate denial --- why give the game away if Tehran was pushing for a military programme? --- it may also be a signal to the "West", especially the US Government, that Iran still wants "engagement" through nuclear talks. (It should not be forgotten that President Obama made at least two direct appeals in letters to Ayatollah Khamenei.)

Inside Iran, it was a quieter Friday, but ripples of confrontation continue. The Kahrizak Prison scandal resurfaced as member of Parliament Parviz Sorouri said that the cause of the death of Ramin Aqazadeh Qahremani is not yet known. Three protesters are already confirmed to have died from abuse in Kahrizak. detention center.