Middle East Inside Line: Dubai Killing, French FM on "Palestinian State", Moscow Missiles to Tehran?

Israel's Official Response on Dubai: Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon said on Saturday that there was no evidence tying Israel to the assassination of Hamas strongman Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai. He added:

I don't forsee a crisis with European allies because there is nothing that ties Israel to the assassination.

Britain, France and Germany all share our interests in the battle against global terror, therefore there will be no crisis, instead our relations [with these countries] will continue to deepen.

Palestinian-French Relations: French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner told the French Journal du Dimanche that the assassination in Dubai underscores the need for peace in the Middle East and demonstrates the need for an immediate recognition of a Palestinian state.

Before Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas's scheduled visit to Paris next week, Kouchner said, referring to Abbas's reportedly acceptance of indirect talks under U.S. mediation:

France is training Palestinian police, businesses are being created in the West Bank... It follows that one can envision the proclamation soon of a Palestinian state, and its immediate recognition by the international community, even before negotiating its borders.

Palestinian Authority leader Salam Fayyad had said on Friday:

If by mid-2011, the political process has not ended the [Israeli] occupation, I would bet that the developed state of Palestinian infrastructure and institutions will be such that the pressure will force Israel to give up its occupation.

Russia to Deliver S-300s to Iran: Interfax news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying that Russia intends to fulfill a contract to supply S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran. He said:

There is a contract to supply these systems to Iran, and we will fulfill it. Delays (with deliveries) are linked to technical problems with adjusting these systems.

It is absolutely incorrect to put the emphasis on the issue of S-300 supplies... and to turn it into a major problem, to say nothing of linking it to the discussion on restoring trust in the purely peaceful character of Iran's nuclear program.

Syrian-Israeli Row: Following the meeting between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met with the French Prime Minister Francois Fillon on Friday, Syrian Prime Minister Naji al-Otari warned Israel Saturday that any new Middle East war would be catastrophic for the region and beyond.

Israel-Russia: Situation Now A-OK on Iran?

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to discuss Hamas, the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, sanctions on Iran, and Russian's pending delivery of  S-300 missiles to Tehran.

At the end of the day, both leaders got what they sought. Medvedev did not put himself under any commitment to punish Iran severely but maintained a "threatening" position vis-a-vis Tehran. He  told Netanyahu that Russia will hold off on  delivering the S-300s to Iran. A spokewoman added: "The position of Russia regarding sanctions remains unchanged. [But] if Iran remains uncooperative, no one can exclude the use of sanctions."

Netanyahu was satisfied to return home with the "success" of the deferred delivery of the S-300s, and he ticked another  box in his "efforts to exhaust every possible chance to achieve peace" before "the necessity of applying a pre-emptive strike" against Iran in the future.



Netanyahu also sent another message in Moscow at a dinner meeting with Greek counterpart George Papandreo : "Turkey will go nuclear if Iran becomes so". Netanyahu added he was concerned Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia would soon begin their own attempts to develop a nuclear weapon.

On Hamas-Russia relations, Netanyahu implicitly asked Moscow to limit its relations with the Gazan organisation. A senior source in Netanyahu's entourage said the Israeli leader told  Medvedev, "We are not pleased with your relations with Hamas. But since they exist, we can relay messages on humanitarian issues. Tell Hamas they won't get a better offer from us on the deal [for Shalit, the Israeli soldier held by Hamas]."

So, after some fuss, nothing changed in the position vis-a-vis Tehran. Moscow might use the deferment of the sale of S-300 missiles to urge Netanyahu to stop plans by an Israeli firm to close a major arms deal with Georgia, a proposal leaked by Russian intelligence on Friday. In the long run, if not in the medium-term, Moscow can use its third party role, both with Hamas and with Tehran, to increase its credibility and bargaining power in the region. However, the question is how long can tension between the West and Tehran continue without a breaking point for Russia's search for a more cooperative Tehran?

Middle East Inside Line: US, Russia, & Israel on Iran; Lieberman v. Palestinian Authority; US Congressman "Break Gaza Blockade"

US-Israel Defense Meeting on Iran: The US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, said in Israel on Sunday, "Iran must not acquire nuclear capability". He added: "It [a regional confrontation following a strike on Iran] will be a big, big, big problem for all of us, and I worry a great deal about the unintended consequences of a strike... We haven't taken off any option from the table."

Meanwhile, Haaretz says that U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will be arriving in Israel within weeks on an official visit.

Middle East Analysis: The Iran-Russia-Israel Triangle

Moscow's Snub to Israel on Iran Missiles: An hour before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plane took off on Sunday, Russian officials said that Moscow sees no reason to delay the sale of the S-300, a powerful air-defense system, to Iran. Vladimir Nazarov, deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council secretary, told Interfax news agency in an interview:

There is a signed contract [for the S-300 missiles] which we must follow through on, but deliveries have not started yet. This deal is not restricted by any international sanctions, because we are talking about deliveries of an exclusively defensive weapon.

On the other hand, according to Haaretz, Russian intelligence officials leaked comments expressing their displeasure with plans by an Israeli firm to close a major arms deal with Georgia.

Lieberman Accuses Palestinian Authority: Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday that "much of the global effort to de-legitimize Israel is supported and sponsored by the Palestinian Authority". He added that the bid to smear Israel in the international community was "partially sponsored by funds Israel is transferring to the Palestinians".

US Congressman "Break Gaza Blockade"US: On Sunday, Rep. Brian Baird, a Democrat from Washington state, spoke to a group of Gaza students regarding the situation in Gaza and said that the United States should break Israel's blockade of Gaza and deliver badly needed supplies by sea. He resembled such an operation to the situation in the post-Second World War and said: "We ought to bring roll-on, roll-off ships and roll them right to the beach and bring the relief supplies in, in our version of the Berlin airlift."