Middle East Analysis: Washington's Latest Stick for an Israel-Palestine Solution

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Friday she expects indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians to begin next week. However, this is not the end of the story.

Here is the Obama Administration’s most recent and biggest stick: an international summit run by the Quartet of Middle East peacemakers --- the United States, European Union, United Nations, and Russia --- to establish a Palestinian state if Israeli-Palestinian talks remain stalemated into September or October.

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Why in September or October? First of all, Arab League foreign ministers are expected to demand that the negotiations show progress within four months. Secondly, the UN General Assembly will reconvene in late September. Thirdly, September is the first anniversary of Obama’s trilateral summit with the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Lastly, 26 September marks the end of the 10-month Israeli freeze on construction in West Bank settlements.


So what does this mean for Israel? Simply put, Washington says that West Jerusalem might find itself facing an internationalization of the conflict, moving hand-in-hand with insistence on a solution based international law and UN Resolutions 242 and 338. This means a shift away from the basis of provisions for Israeli self-defense to the  consolidation of socio-political institutions seeing the Israeli occupation as the heart of problems in the region.

Meanwhile, Washington is increasing its pressure on Israel. On Friday, a Palestinian source told The Guardian that the Obama administration would consider allowing the UN Security Council to censure Israel over its activity in West Bank settlements, encouraging the Palestinians to participate in peace talks. This would mean a US abstention on any resolution. The same source also reported that David Hale, the deputy to US special envoy George Mitchell, told Abbas that the Obama administration views Israeli construction in East Jerusalem as "provocative."

Will the Obama Administration be able to convince other countries to support these measures, despite Israel’s “sensitive” bilateral relations with Russia and France? Washington may find ground if it presents this as an approach to not only the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but also other regional problems, such as Iran’s nuclear programme, Hamas-Fatah reconciliation talks, and Israel’s relations with Lebanon and Syria.

If the Obama Administration is really serious in its warning, this is more than welcome for the Palestinian Authority as it will decrease pressure on the PA in the Weskt Bank.  However, Palestinians are unlikely to welcome an international conference if they cannot get more than “gestures” from the Netanyahu Government.

Arab countries will take a similar position. The London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi has already reported that Syria is opposed to the Palestinians returning to the negotiating table because "Israel has not made enough gestures of good faith, and in light of the fact that senior officials in Israel have been sounding threats against Damascus and Beirut".

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