Middle East Inside Line: Israeli Military Drills & Gestures, Palestinian Boycott of Goods, Syria's Assad v. US Congress

Israel's "Turning Point 4" Military Operation: The Israeli Defense Forces have released a video about their drill, allegedly designed as preparation against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsVe7Dg9h8c[/youtube]

Middle East/Iran Analysis: How the US Has Lost (Narwani)
Middle East Inside Line: Israel’s Settlements; Syria’s Defiance

Israel's "Goodwill Measures": The Jewish Telegraphic Agency gave more details on the Israeli gestures towards Palestine that we noted on Sunday. The measures include allowing Israeli tour guides to enter the Palestinian city of Bethlehem and allowing tourists to enter the city via all crossings; removing 60 roadblocks throughout the West Bank; easing restrictions on senior Palestinian businessmen going through security checkpoints; and permitting Israeli-Arab civilians to travel through all security crossings located on the West Bank security fence.


Palestinian Authority's Boycott of Israeli Goods: With proximity talks, discussion has arisen over the Palestinian boycott of Israeli goods produced in the West Bank and the Golan Heights. Jeff Barak, a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post, said that "Palestinians' boycott is a political act that does not contribute to the positive atmosphere needed to help the recently launched proximity talks". He continued:

Palestinian traders selling Israeli-made goods produced in the West Bank reportedly face fines of up to $14,000 or even prison which, while not a “hostile act” as the Council of Jewish Communities in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip would have us believe, is still a serious violation of the spirit of the economic agreements made between Israel and the Palestinians during the Oslo period.

However, Barak also pointed out another economic reality:

The manufacturers’ claim that they are providing jobs for the around 20,000 Palestinians who would otherwise be unemployed might have some factual basis, but ignores the real reason for their basing their factories there: the winning combination of cheap land and cheap labor. Were labor costs and rents the same in the territories as they are in Israel, these manufacturers’ concern for Palestinian employment figures would soon disappear.

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a Likud Party meeting that the boycott of Israeli products from the West Bank cost 2,000 Palestinians their livelihoods and added:

Israel strives for peace, we removed checkpoints in the West Bank, improved the [Palestinians'] quality of life, and are constantly working to help the development of the Palestinian economy, yet the Palestinians oppose economic improvements and takes step that in the end hurt themselves.

Syria's Assad vs. the US Congress & Lobbies: On Monday, in an interview with the Italian daily newspaper La Republica, Syrian President Bashar Assad made four assertions. First, it is not necessary to break Syria's strong ties with Iran to make peace with Israel. Secondly, Syria, did not give Scud missiles to Hezbollah. Thirdly, the US has lost its influence in the Middle East. Lastly, the reason for this failure is not President Barack Obama, who brought hope to the region, but the actions of Congress and American lobbies.

Israel Still Denies Nuke Offer to South Africa: Responding to the report that Israel had offered nuclear warheads to South Africa, a statement from President Shimon Peres' office said:

Israel has never negotiated the exchange of nuclear weapons with South Africa. There exists no Israeli document or Israeli signature on a document that such negotiations took place.

Israel Says 'No' to Aid Ships: A flotilla of humanitarian aid ships sent from Ireland, Greece and Turkey to help people in Gaza will not be allowed into the Gaza Strip. Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor said:

If the people who rule Gaza let [detained Israeli soldier] Gilad Shalit go then everything will look different. They're causing damage to their own people.

Hamas Warns Fatah ahead of Elections: Hamas officials said on Monday that the Islamist movement will boycott the municipal elections that the Palestinian Authority is planning to hold in the West Bank in July. Hamas said that the elections were designed to help Fatah and supporters of the Oslo Accords.

Middle East Inside Line: Nakba Day/Independence Day; Deterioration in East Jerusalem; Israel's Lieberman "An Imbecile"?

Independence Day/Nakba (Catastrophe) Day: Palestinians marked Nakba Day on 15 May, remembering the day in 1948 when Israel declared statehood as the prelude to the fleeing or expulsion of some 700,000 Arabs from their homes. Hundreds of Israeli Arabs took part in a rally in East Jerusalem. On the same day, leaders of Hamas and Fatah displayed rare unity in a joint rally in Gaza.

Israeli Arab MK Jamal Zahalka said that if Israel's government were to go ahead with its construction plans for East Jerusalem, a "third Intifada would erupt," calling "what is happening today in Jerusalem a second Nakba".

Middle East Analysis: Russia’s Strategy on Israel, Palestine and Beyond

On Saturday night, the National Left (Smol Leumi) movement, Peace Now, and "Ofek" (the Meretz party at Hebrew University) organized a large demonstration near Zion Square in Jerusalem. Under the banner "Zionists are not settlers!", thousands of left-wing activists called for "an end to the occupation."


East Jerusalem's Deteriorating Situation: According to the Association for Civil Rights in Israel (Acri), "a unified Jerusalem does not exist and he truth is, two cities exist side by side":

- Only three social service stations operate in East Jerusalem in comparison to 20 in the West.
- Less than 50 per cent of schoolchildren attend public schools; 1,000 classrooms are needed.
- The annual budget allocation per elementary school child in East Jerusalem was $152 (577 shekels) compared with $627 (2,372 shekels) in the west of the city.
- Eighty homes were demolished in 2009, leaving 300 people homeless.
- Hundreds of streets do not receive rubbish collection services.
- About 160,000 Palestinianresidents have no suitable and legal connection to the water network and 50km of main sewage lines are lacking.

Acri said Palestinians faced discrimination in almost all sectors of life, "Israel's policy for the past four decades has taken concrete form as discrimination in planning and construction, expropriation of land, and minimal investment in physical infrastructure and government and municipal services."

The report added that Israel has expropriated more than one-third of East Jerusalem land which was privately owned by Palestinians, on which it has built more than 50,000 homes for the Jewish population:

- A majority of Palestinians in East Jerusalem, including three out of four children live in poverty.
- Only 10 per cent of East Jerusalem's 300,000 Palestinians have access to social services to help remedy the situation.
- 65 per cent of Palestinian families in East Jerusalem exist below the poverty line, as opposed to 31 per cent of the city's Jewish families.

North Korea Attacks Israel's Lieberman: Looks like Pyongyang is not happy that Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has called Iran, Syria, and North Korea .the "new Axis of Evil" because of their pursuit of a "mad arms race". North Korea's Foreign Ministry said Saturday that its government has nothing to do with any spread of WMDs and called Lieberman "an imbecile in diplomacy".

Middle East Analysis: Russia's Strategy on Israel, Palestine and Beyond

On Wednesday, during a visit to Ankara following meetings with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Hamas Political Bureau Chief Khaled Meshal, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reiterated Moscow's Middle East policy. Both Russia and Turkey stated that the International Community must deal with Hamas due to the party's support from the Palestinian people in the 2006 elections and called on Hamas and Fatah to unite.

In February, Meshaal had been welcomed in Moscow. So latest Medvedev’s meeting is another step forward helping Hamas build strategic relations in the international arena.

Turkey Inside Line: Ankara & Russia Press Israel on Hamas Issue

As for Moscow, the move is filling the space left by Washington. Unlike the US inability to approach the problems of the region by connecting them, Moscow is showing its willingness to treat Middle East actors in a complicated and inter-linked context. This includes Iran's nuclear technology, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the challenge of Palestinian unity dilemma, and the triangle between Israel, Iran, and Syria.


Moscow is investing directly in Hezbollah through Syria and Iran, but now it is moving directly over Hamas. The Kremlin urged the Gaza leaders to release the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and to move towards reconciliation with Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah within the framework of the Palestine Liberation Organization.

Finally, Moscow's latest gambit in Syria posed another challenge for Israeli officials. Medvedev said that the Middle East must be free of nuclear arms, otherwise the situation could lead to a regional or even global catastrophe.

Israeli decision-makers have tried to manipulate Russia's involvement in the region, asking it not to sell S-300 missiles to Iran in 2008 and to halt the sale of advanced MIG-31 fighter jets to Syria. West Jerusalem also sees a "finishing role" for Russia on sacntions against Iran, leaving China in isolation on the issue.

Russia, in response, agreed to the Israeli demands on military deliveries to Iran and Syria but is still holding its card on sanctions. The recent visit to Syria and the second round of its direct investment in Hamas are extra bargaining points.

Syria? As a country accused of transferring weapons to Hezbollah, recently re-sanctioned for another year by Washington, Damascus got a breather with Medvedev's visit and his proclamation of Syria as  "one of the most important political centers of the Middle East. Two cooperation agreements in the fields of air services and information and communication technology, two agreements on technical, scientific, and environmental cooperation, and a joint work programme to implement cooperation on tourism cooperation were also signed. According to Stratfor, Russia also signed agreements to sell the Syrians MiG-29 fighters, Pantsir short-range surface-to-air missiles, anti-aircraft artillery systems, and anti-tank weapons.

After Israeli criticism in February, the Kremlin said that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was the highest-level official Meshaal would meet. Its ambassador assured West Jerusalem that the Meshaal visit did not signal a swing in Moscow’s policy toward Hamas, and he said that Lavrov would reiterate that the Islamist movement must abide by conditions to recognize Israel, give up violence, and honour past peace accords.

This time, the Israeli Foreign Ministry slammed Medvedev's call to involve Hamas in the Mideast peace process and likened the organization to the Islamist Chechen rebels. In response, Andrei Nesterenko, the Russian foreign ministry spokesman, said in a statement:

Hamas is not an artificial structure. It is a movement that draws on the trust and sympathy of a large number of Palestinians. We have regular contacts with this movement.

It is known that all other participants of the Middle East quartet are also in some sort of contact with Hamas leadership, although for some unknown reason they are shy to publicly admit it.

Middle East Inside Line: Preliminary Proximity Talks, "Strategic Advantage" of Israel's Nukes, Fatah-Hamas Tension

Warming Up the Proximity Talks: US Middle East envoy George Mitchell met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday for the second time in two days. There has been no comment so far.

Mitchell is to go to Ramallah on Friday, meeting the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas.

The official announcement of the beginning of indirect talks is awaiting approval by the Palestine Liberation Organization's Executive Committee. It is expected by Saturday.

Middle East Inside line: Israel’s Nuclear Problem; Syrian Tensions with US & Israel

Israel's "Strategic Advantage": The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, has asked member states to share views on how to implement a resolution demanding that Israel accede to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and open  its nuclear facilities to IAEA oversight.


An Israeli official on Thursday responded by defendeing the country's "opaque" policy on its nuclear program as a "strategic advantage". He added that Israel would not sign the NPT until a comprehensive Arab-Israel peace deal is in place, as the treaty in itself is "not successful" in preventing countries such as Saddam Husein's Iraq or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Fatah-Hamas Tension: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday accused the rival Hamas movement of smuggling weapons into the West Bank. In an interview with the London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat, he said:

On the one hand, the organization is punishing those who launch rockets in Gaza, while at the same time it hoards weapons in the West Bank.

Middle East Analysis: Washington's Latest Stick for an Israel-Palestine Solution

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Friday she expects indirect talks between Israel and the Palestinians to begin next week. However, this is not the end of the story.

Here is the Obama Administration’s most recent and biggest stick: an international summit run by the Quartet of Middle East peacemakers --- the United States, European Union, United Nations, and Russia --- to establish a Palestinian state if Israeli-Palestinian talks remain stalemated into September or October.

Israel-Palestine: The Golden Key to Proximity Talks? East Jerusalem (Yenidunya)

Why in September or October? First of all, Arab League foreign ministers are expected to demand that the negotiations show progress within four months. Secondly, the UN General Assembly will reconvene in late September. Thirdly, September is the first anniversary of Obama’s trilateral summit with the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Lastly, 26 September marks the end of the 10-month Israeli freeze on construction in West Bank settlements.


So what does this mean for Israel? Simply put, Washington says that West Jerusalem might find itself facing an internationalization of the conflict, moving hand-in-hand with insistence on a solution based international law and UN Resolutions 242 and 338. This means a shift away from the basis of provisions for Israeli self-defense to the  consolidation of socio-political institutions seeing the Israeli occupation as the heart of problems in the region.

Meanwhile, Washington is increasing its pressure on Israel. On Friday, a Palestinian source told The Guardian that the Obama administration would consider allowing the UN Security Council to censure Israel over its activity in West Bank settlements, encouraging the Palestinians to participate in peace talks. This would mean a US abstention on any resolution. The same source also reported that David Hale, the deputy to US special envoy George Mitchell, told Abbas that the Obama administration views Israeli construction in East Jerusalem as "provocative."

Will the Obama Administration be able to convince other countries to support these measures, despite Israel’s “sensitive” bilateral relations with Russia and France? Washington may find ground if it presents this as an approach to not only the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but also other regional problems, such as Iran’s nuclear programme, Hamas-Fatah reconciliation talks, and Israel’s relations with Lebanon and Syria.

If the Obama Administration is really serious in its warning, this is more than welcome for the Palestinian Authority as it will decrease pressure on the PA in the Weskt Bank.  However, Palestinians are unlikely to welcome an international conference if they cannot get more than “gestures” from the Netanyahu Government.

Arab countries will take a similar position. The London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi has already reported that Syria is opposed to the Palestinians returning to the negotiating table because "Israel has not made enough gestures of good faith, and in light of the fact that senior officials in Israel have been sounding threats against Damascus and Beirut".