Middle East Analysis: Russia's Strategy on Israel, Palestine and Beyond

On Wednesday, during a visit to Ankara following meetings with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Hamas Political Bureau Chief Khaled Meshal, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reiterated Moscow's Middle East policy. Both Russia and Turkey stated that the International Community must deal with Hamas due to the party's support from the Palestinian people in the 2006 elections and called on Hamas and Fatah to unite.

In February, Meshaal had been welcomed in Moscow. So latest Medvedev’s meeting is another step forward helping Hamas build strategic relations in the international arena.

Turkey Inside Line: Ankara & Russia Press Israel on Hamas Issue

As for Moscow, the move is filling the space left by Washington. Unlike the US inability to approach the problems of the region by connecting them, Moscow is showing its willingness to treat Middle East actors in a complicated and inter-linked context. This includes Iran's nuclear technology, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the challenge of Palestinian unity dilemma, and the triangle between Israel, Iran, and Syria.


Moscow is investing directly in Hezbollah through Syria and Iran, but now it is moving directly over Hamas. The Kremlin urged the Gaza leaders to release the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and to move towards reconciliation with Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah within the framework of the Palestine Liberation Organization.

Finally, Moscow's latest gambit in Syria posed another challenge for Israeli officials. Medvedev said that the Middle East must be free of nuclear arms, otherwise the situation could lead to a regional or even global catastrophe.

Israeli decision-makers have tried to manipulate Russia's involvement in the region, asking it not to sell S-300 missiles to Iran in 2008 and to halt the sale of advanced MIG-31 fighter jets to Syria. West Jerusalem also sees a "finishing role" for Russia on sacntions against Iran, leaving China in isolation on the issue.

Russia, in response, agreed to the Israeli demands on military deliveries to Iran and Syria but is still holding its card on sanctions. The recent visit to Syria and the second round of its direct investment in Hamas are extra bargaining points.

Syria? As a country accused of transferring weapons to Hezbollah, recently re-sanctioned for another year by Washington, Damascus got a breather with Medvedev's visit and his proclamation of Syria as  "one of the most important political centers of the Middle East. Two cooperation agreements in the fields of air services and information and communication technology, two agreements on technical, scientific, and environmental cooperation, and a joint work programme to implement cooperation on tourism cooperation were also signed. According to Stratfor, Russia also signed agreements to sell the Syrians MiG-29 fighters, Pantsir short-range surface-to-air missiles, anti-aircraft artillery systems, and anti-tank weapons.

After Israeli criticism in February, the Kremlin said that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was the highest-level official Meshaal would meet. Its ambassador assured West Jerusalem that the Meshaal visit did not signal a swing in Moscow’s policy toward Hamas, and he said that Lavrov would reiterate that the Islamist movement must abide by conditions to recognize Israel, give up violence, and honour past peace accords.

This time, the Israeli Foreign Ministry slammed Medvedev's call to involve Hamas in the Mideast peace process and likened the organization to the Islamist Chechen rebels. In response, Andrei Nesterenko, the Russian foreign ministry spokesman, said in a statement:

Hamas is not an artificial structure. It is a movement that draws on the trust and sympathy of a large number of Palestinians. We have regular contacts with this movement.

It is known that all other participants of the Middle East quartet are also in some sort of contact with Hamas leadership, although for some unknown reason they are shy to publicly admit it.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel-Palestine Indirect Talks; Syrian-Turkey Meeting

The Indirect Talks Begin: Following a session of several hours, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) on Saturday approved indirect talks with Israel. At the end of the meeting, Yasser Abed Rabbo, a member of the PLO committee, said: "As far as we are concerned, the start of the indirect negotiations can be announced today. The negotiations will take one form: shuttling between President Abu Mazen and the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu."

Washington welcomed Ramallah's decision. "It is an important and welcome step," US State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said.

Middle East Inside Line: Mitchell’s Talks in Palestine; Israel’s Official Perception of Peace

In contrast, Hamas's Gaza leadership denounced the PLO decision as a “stab in the back of our people” and said the organisation does not represent Palestinians.


On Sunday, following a meeting between the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and US Mideast envoy George Mitchell, top Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said that he hoped Israel would give the process a chance, rather than setting facts on the ground that will complicate the talks.

The indirect talks are scheduled to last at least four months.

The Turkey-Syria-Israel Triangle: On Saturday, Syrian President Bashar Assad was in Turkey to sign two cooperation deals with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, covering joint communications projects and border crossings. This is Assad's second visit to Turkey since last August.

In a joint press conference with Turkish counter Abdullah Gul, Assad said that Israel's hostile and uncompromising policy vis-à-vis the Palestinians undermines the Middle East peace process and added:

I do not think conditions are ripe for successful (Turkish) mediation, because Israel doesn't appear to be ready for peace. If there is even a one percent chance of war breaking out, we are working to prevent it.

Gul continued:

Syria has said it is ready to resume talks where they were left off. However, we have not heard from the Israeli side. It is up to them.

The Middle East peace process is the biggest problem in the world and the world should make a settlement of the conflict a number one priority. The region cannot take another war anymore.

What happened in Gaza two years ago was the last straw. No one in the world can condone or turn a blind eye on the repetition of such a thing anymore.

During a state visit to Moscow marking the 65th anniversary celebrations of the Allied victory over the Nazis, Israeli President Shimon Peres told Russian President Medvedev, who leaves Monday for a two-day state visit to Damascus, that he should “send him [Syrian President Basher Assad] a clear message: Israel is not interested in border escalation or a war, this is the last thing we want. We extend our hand in peace to Syria, but there must be one basic condition, Assad must stop his support for terror and stop trafficking weapons and missiles to Hezbollah.”

Middle East Inside Line: Mitchell's Talks in Palestine; Israel's Official Perception of Peace

Mitchell in Ramallah: US envoy George Mitchell was in Ramallah on Friday for meetings with the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and the PA's top negotiator Saeb Erekat. Both Palestinians reiterated their call upon Israel to stop construction in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Though the Palestinian Liberation Organization's executive committee has not made a formal decision yet, Erekat said:

If the price that we will pay for saying yes to Mitchell will be more settlements and more dictations, that's a big question mark about the possibility of continuing.

Now the Israeli government has a choice, either peace or settlements, and it can't have both.

Following Defense Minister Ehud Barak's request to delay the demolition date of illegal residential structures in the West Bank, Israeli officials told the High Court of Justice that they may legalize the Givat Hayovel outpost in the West Bank.



Livni's Call for an Agreement: In an interview with Haaretz, the opposition leader MK Tzipi Livni (Kadima) on Thursday called to combine the forces of "the two large Zionist parties in Israel" - Kadima and Likud - to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians. Livni said:

The prime minister is the one preventing the change....Change is possible, but it will not be done with the agreement of the ultra-Orthodox parties. They have no reason [to agree], as long as Likud is the ruling party. Likud has bound its political destiny and all Israelis' fate to the ultra-Orthodox politicians' whims....Change is possible and the keys to change are in the hands of the Zionist parties representing the majority in Israel.

Israel's Official Perception of Peace: In an interview with The Jerusalem Post, Vice Premier and Regional Development Minister Silvan Shalom said: "No matter what we do, I do not see a Palestinian leader who is willing to accept what [Yasir] Arafat rejected, and I don’t see a Jewish prime minister who can give more than what [Ehud] Barak offered. Therefore, I see it as a dead end."

Shalom stated that the Palestinian Authority was already functioning like a de facto state. “True, they don’t have borders,” he said, “but we also don’t have borders.” He described the proximity talks as "bypass" talks and said their focus should be on economic projects, development of industrial areas, and joint projects in the spheres of electricity, sewage, water and infrastructure assistance. They could also increase freedom of movement in the West Bank, through the lifting of roadblocks, and help the Palestinians fight terrorism and enhance security.

Israel's Security: On Friday, President Shimon Peres told US envoy Mitchell that Israel placed security at the top of the agenda for the upcoming talks.

Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that FBI Director Robert Mueller came to Israel to discuss international crime and joint U.S-Israeli efforts to counter “terrorism” with Israeli Police Chief David Cohen.

Cohen said that the talks were positive and cooperation between security agencies in Israel and US had been fruitful in "the fight against organized and computer crimes as well as the fight against terrorism".

Middle East Inside Line: Preliminary Proximity Talks, "Strategic Advantage" of Israel's Nukes, Fatah-Hamas Tension

Warming Up the Proximity Talks: US Middle East envoy George Mitchell met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday for the second time in two days. There has been no comment so far.

Mitchell is to go to Ramallah on Friday, meeting the Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas.

The official announcement of the beginning of indirect talks is awaiting approval by the Palestine Liberation Organization's Executive Committee. It is expected by Saturday.

Middle East Inside line: Israel’s Nuclear Problem; Syrian Tensions with US & Israel

Israel's "Strategic Advantage": The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, has asked member states to share views on how to implement a resolution demanding that Israel accede to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and open  its nuclear facilities to IAEA oversight.


An Israeli official on Thursday responded by defendeing the country's "opaque" policy on its nuclear program as a "strategic advantage". He added that Israel would not sign the NPT until a comprehensive Arab-Israel peace deal is in place, as the treaty in itself is "not successful" in preventing countries such as Saddam Husein's Iraq or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Fatah-Hamas Tension: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday accused the rival Hamas movement of smuggling weapons into the West Bank. In an interview with the London-based A-Sharq al-Awsat, he said:

On the one hand, the organization is punishing those who launch rockets in Gaza, while at the same time it hoards weapons in the West Bank.