Middle East Inside Line: Israeli Military Drills & Gestures, Palestinian Boycott of Goods, Syria's Assad v. US Congress

Israel's "Turning Point 4" Military Operation: The Israeli Defense Forces have released a video about their drill, allegedly designed as preparation against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsVe7Dg9h8c[/youtube]

Middle East/Iran Analysis: How the US Has Lost (Narwani)
Middle East Inside Line: Israel’s Settlements; Syria’s Defiance

Israel's "Goodwill Measures": The Jewish Telegraphic Agency gave more details on the Israeli gestures towards Palestine that we noted on Sunday. The measures include allowing Israeli tour guides to enter the Palestinian city of Bethlehem and allowing tourists to enter the city via all crossings; removing 60 roadblocks throughout the West Bank; easing restrictions on senior Palestinian businessmen going through security checkpoints; and permitting Israeli-Arab civilians to travel through all security crossings located on the West Bank security fence.


Palestinian Authority's Boycott of Israeli Goods: With proximity talks, discussion has arisen over the Palestinian boycott of Israeli goods produced in the West Bank and the Golan Heights. Jeff Barak, a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post, said that "Palestinians' boycott is a political act that does not contribute to the positive atmosphere needed to help the recently launched proximity talks". He continued:

Palestinian traders selling Israeli-made goods produced in the West Bank reportedly face fines of up to $14,000 or even prison which, while not a “hostile act” as the Council of Jewish Communities in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip would have us believe, is still a serious violation of the spirit of the economic agreements made between Israel and the Palestinians during the Oslo period.

However, Barak also pointed out another economic reality:

The manufacturers’ claim that they are providing jobs for the around 20,000 Palestinians who would otherwise be unemployed might have some factual basis, but ignores the real reason for their basing their factories there: the winning combination of cheap land and cheap labor. Were labor costs and rents the same in the territories as they are in Israel, these manufacturers’ concern for Palestinian employment figures would soon disappear.

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a Likud Party meeting that the boycott of Israeli products from the West Bank cost 2,000 Palestinians their livelihoods and added:

Israel strives for peace, we removed checkpoints in the West Bank, improved the [Palestinians'] quality of life, and are constantly working to help the development of the Palestinian economy, yet the Palestinians oppose economic improvements and takes step that in the end hurt themselves.

Syria's Assad vs. the US Congress & Lobbies: On Monday, in an interview with the Italian daily newspaper La Republica, Syrian President Bashar Assad made four assertions. First, it is not necessary to break Syria's strong ties with Iran to make peace with Israel. Secondly, Syria, did not give Scud missiles to Hezbollah. Thirdly, the US has lost its influence in the Middle East. Lastly, the reason for this failure is not President Barack Obama, who brought hope to the region, but the actions of Congress and American lobbies.

Israel Still Denies Nuke Offer to South Africa: Responding to the report that Israel had offered nuclear warheads to South Africa, a statement from President Shimon Peres' office said:

Israel has never negotiated the exchange of nuclear weapons with South Africa. There exists no Israeli document or Israeli signature on a document that such negotiations took place.

Israel Says 'No' to Aid Ships: A flotilla of humanitarian aid ships sent from Ireland, Greece and Turkey to help people in Gaza will not be allowed into the Gaza Strip. Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor said:

If the people who rule Gaza let [detained Israeli soldier] Gilad Shalit go then everything will look different. They're causing damage to their own people.

Hamas Warns Fatah ahead of Elections: Hamas officials said on Monday that the Islamist movement will boycott the municipal elections that the Palestinian Authority is planning to hold in the West Bank in July. Hamas said that the elections were designed to help Fatah and supporters of the Oslo Accords.

Middle East/Iran Analysis: How the US Has Lost (Narwani)

Sharmine Narwani writes in The Huffington Post:

It's official. There is no longer any serious "cost" for defying the United States in the global arena. Unable to win wars or deliver diplomatic coups - and struggling to maintain our economic equilibrium --- Washington has lost the fundamental tools for global leadership. And no place does this impotence manifest more vividly than the modern Middle East.

Our pointless and protracted wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will be the last time we will launch a major battle in the region. That massive show of flexing brawn over brain burst a global perception bubble about our intentions, capabilities and reason.



This credibility was compromised further with our irrational support of Israel's attacks on Lebanon and Gaza in 2006 and 2008/9 respectively. And it has eroded with the double standards employed over Israel's violations of international law and its illegal nuclear weapons stash, particularly when viewed against the backdrop of our startling rhetoric over Iran's nuclear program.

But nothing highlights our irrelevance more than two recent developments:

1) The US's inability today to convene even perfunctory peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians, let alone push through a negotiated solution --- and this after 19 years of a "US-sponsored" peace process.

2) The US's inability to achieve a resolution with Iran over its nuclear program. The only breakthrough in this long-winded effort to tame Iran's nuclear aspirations was struck by Turkey and Brazil last week.

In short, the US seems incapable of resolving even a traffic dispute in the Middle East. It is Qatar that stepped in to broker a deal between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government in 2008, and is knee deep in negotiating a solution to the conflict in Darfur. Syria helped gain the release of prisoners in Iran and Gaza. And now Turkey and Brazil have cajoled Iran into accepting an agreement that the US, France, England, Germany, Russia and China could not.

We have been rendered irrelevant, despite our insistence on involving ourselves with every peep heard in the Mideast.

The Iran Nuclear Fiasco

After pushing for the nuclear swap deal with Iran since last October, we did an about turn and scorned the very same "confidence building" measure we had touted while simultaneously accusing Iran of bad intentions and negotiations trickery.

And we openly sneered at the valiant effort of two important UN Security Council member states --- one a NATO-member and the other the largest economy in our Latin American backyard --- to troubleshoot on behalf of the global community. The very next day, we childishly chose to undermine this important breakthrough by announcing an agreement on UN Security Council draft sanctions against Iran.

The fact is that no one other than England, France, Germany and Israel seems to want us to win this fight anymore. This is increasingly being viewed as a David vs. Goliath standoff, with Iran as the David, and its nuclear energy program a sacrificial lamb that is meant to appease our substantial ego as the world's remaining superpower.

Pundits and analysts, such as Pierre Tristam, James Lindsay and Ray Takeyh,  are even starting to argue for making room for a nuclear Iran --- all thanks to our unwavering scrutiny of this issue.

Indian External Affairs Minister S. M. Krishna said in Tehran two days after the nuclear swap deal was struck, "India praises Iran for fighting for its interests... We are both developing nations and we should make use of each other's capabilities and experiences in order to make progress."

These so-called "Middle States" like Brazil, India, and Turkey are regional economic and political hegemons with collective clout --- certainly more so than the waning authority of our European partners who are dealing with weak economies and uninspired geopolitical thinking, much like our own.

Who needs us when all we seem to bring to the table is bluster, threats and our dubious "hard power?" The "regional hegemons" have demonstrated that the cleverly-wielded soft power of diplomacy goes a lot further in easing tensions globally and creating vibrant trade and economic conditions across borders.

No Consequence to Defying the US

In a very significant perception shift, many of these countries are beginning to realize that there is no longer a "cost" to ignoring US threats.

This reality is swiftly becoming apparent in the Middle East. What have several rounds of Security Council sanctions done to harm Iran thus far? Iran has just learned to be more self-sufficient and our constant bullying has earned it a permanent global podium from which it has rallied impressive developing nation alliances from countries that admire its struggle and resolve.

And the Arab world, once hostile to Iran and its brand of Islamic government, has also warmed to the idea of a new regional worldview that rejects an aggressive American role and embraces a homegrown narrative that more honestly addresses their problems. Hence the growing influence of the Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas mindset, bolstered by their good relations with rising regional stars like Turkey and Qatar and the widespread support of the Arab and Muslim Street.

But more importantly, traditional US allies like Saudi Arabia and Lebanon are slowly shifting strategies. Both have sought rapprochement with Syria and appeasement of Iran in some form this past year. Lebanon has defended Hezbollah's right to maintain its weapons so long as a belligerent Israel exists down south. Saudi Arabia and Syria worked together to ensure a smooth, crisis-free election in Lebanon last June, and helped broker the formation of a government in its aftermath - with Iran giving its blessings along the way. And there is increased disunity amongst the six pro-US Arab nations of the Persian Gulf on whether Iran poses a serious threat in the region.

Perceptions Altered --- Can We Adapt Fast Enough?

A recent article in Foreign Policy magazine by Aaron David Miller argues that the Mideast climate has changed and therefore the US should examine its participation in regional affairs, specifically the peace process. Miller also warns:

The broader Middle East is littered with the remains of great powers that wrongly believed they could impose their will on small tribes. Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran...need I continue? Small tribes will always be meaner, tougher, and longer-winded than U.S. diplomats because it's their neighborhood and their survival; they will always have a greater stake in the outcome of their struggle than the great power thousands of miles away with many other things to do.

As we contract economically and our appetite for waging wars shrinks, those who resist our policies in the Middle East can flex their influence with fair certainty that we will not and can not retaliate effectively.

With no real cost to bear, the sympathy of the larger international community, and now a genuine compromise to wave in front of detractors, Iran is sitting pretty, leaving us to look like a churlish, patronizing bully that chooses to lead with club in hand.

In a rapidly changing Middle East, this fight with Iran is just churning up trouble for us and underlining our own shrinking relevance on the world stage. Iran's deal with Turkey and Brazil and our subsequent sanctions threat has demonstrated conclusively that the US is not necessary for brokering deals and may in fact be an impediment to conflict resolution.

And this perception makes our regional allies uncomfortable enough to investigate their options, specifically, dealing with those we call our foes. Regional state and non-state actors will be taking note of the against-all-odds success of the tripartite deal and wondering if they should look more locally for Arab-Israeli peacebrokering too.

The US needs to take a page out of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's foreign policy playbook before taking another false step in the Mideast. This is geopolitical thought leadership the likes of which we haven't seen in more than half a century.

You could call it Diplomacy 101. I'd like to call it our "last chance to practice what we preach".

Middle East Analysis: Russia's Strategy on Israel, Palestine and Beyond

On Wednesday, during a visit to Ankara following meetings with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and Hamas Political Bureau Chief Khaled Meshal, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reiterated Moscow's Middle East policy. Both Russia and Turkey stated that the International Community must deal with Hamas due to the party's support from the Palestinian people in the 2006 elections and called on Hamas and Fatah to unite.

In February, Meshaal had been welcomed in Moscow. So latest Medvedev’s meeting is another step forward helping Hamas build strategic relations in the international arena.

Turkey Inside Line: Ankara & Russia Press Israel on Hamas Issue

As for Moscow, the move is filling the space left by Washington. Unlike the US inability to approach the problems of the region by connecting them, Moscow is showing its willingness to treat Middle East actors in a complicated and inter-linked context. This includes Iran's nuclear technology, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the challenge of Palestinian unity dilemma, and the triangle between Israel, Iran, and Syria.


Moscow is investing directly in Hezbollah through Syria and Iran, but now it is moving directly over Hamas. The Kremlin urged the Gaza leaders to release the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and to move towards reconciliation with Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah within the framework of the Palestine Liberation Organization.

Finally, Moscow's latest gambit in Syria posed another challenge for Israeli officials. Medvedev said that the Middle East must be free of nuclear arms, otherwise the situation could lead to a regional or even global catastrophe.

Israeli decision-makers have tried to manipulate Russia's involvement in the region, asking it not to sell S-300 missiles to Iran in 2008 and to halt the sale of advanced MIG-31 fighter jets to Syria. West Jerusalem also sees a "finishing role" for Russia on sacntions against Iran, leaving China in isolation on the issue.

Russia, in response, agreed to the Israeli demands on military deliveries to Iran and Syria but is still holding its card on sanctions. The recent visit to Syria and the second round of its direct investment in Hamas are extra bargaining points.

Syria? As a country accused of transferring weapons to Hezbollah, recently re-sanctioned for another year by Washington, Damascus got a breather with Medvedev's visit and his proclamation of Syria as  "one of the most important political centers of the Middle East. Two cooperation agreements in the fields of air services and information and communication technology, two agreements on technical, scientific, and environmental cooperation, and a joint work programme to implement cooperation on tourism cooperation were also signed. According to Stratfor, Russia also signed agreements to sell the Syrians MiG-29 fighters, Pantsir short-range surface-to-air missiles, anti-aircraft artillery systems, and anti-tank weapons.

After Israeli criticism in February, the Kremlin said that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was the highest-level official Meshaal would meet. Its ambassador assured West Jerusalem that the Meshaal visit did not signal a swing in Moscow’s policy toward Hamas, and he said that Lavrov would reiterate that the Islamist movement must abide by conditions to recognize Israel, give up violence, and honour past peace accords.

This time, the Israeli Foreign Ministry slammed Medvedev's call to involve Hamas in the Mideast peace process and likened the organization to the Islamist Chechen rebels. In response, Andrei Nesterenko, the Russian foreign ministry spokesman, said in a statement:

Hamas is not an artificial structure. It is a movement that draws on the trust and sympathy of a large number of Palestinians. We have regular contacts with this movement.

It is known that all other participants of the Middle East quartet are also in some sort of contact with Hamas leadership, although for some unknown reason they are shy to publicly admit it.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel-Palestine Indirect Talks; Syrian-Turkey Meeting

The Indirect Talks Begin: Following a session of several hours, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) on Saturday approved indirect talks with Israel. At the end of the meeting, Yasser Abed Rabbo, a member of the PLO committee, said: "As far as we are concerned, the start of the indirect negotiations can be announced today. The negotiations will take one form: shuttling between President Abu Mazen and the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu."

Washington welcomed Ramallah's decision. "It is an important and welcome step," US State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said.

Middle East Inside Line: Mitchell’s Talks in Palestine; Israel’s Official Perception of Peace

In contrast, Hamas's Gaza leadership denounced the PLO decision as a “stab in the back of our people” and said the organisation does not represent Palestinians.


On Sunday, following a meeting between the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and US Mideast envoy George Mitchell, top Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said that he hoped Israel would give the process a chance, rather than setting facts on the ground that will complicate the talks.

The indirect talks are scheduled to last at least four months.

The Turkey-Syria-Israel Triangle: On Saturday, Syrian President Bashar Assad was in Turkey to sign two cooperation deals with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, covering joint communications projects and border crossings. This is Assad's second visit to Turkey since last August.

In a joint press conference with Turkish counter Abdullah Gul, Assad said that Israel's hostile and uncompromising policy vis-à-vis the Palestinians undermines the Middle East peace process and added:

I do not think conditions are ripe for successful (Turkish) mediation, because Israel doesn't appear to be ready for peace. If there is even a one percent chance of war breaking out, we are working to prevent it.

Gul continued:

Syria has said it is ready to resume talks where they were left off. However, we have not heard from the Israeli side. It is up to them.

The Middle East peace process is the biggest problem in the world and the world should make a settlement of the conflict a number one priority. The region cannot take another war anymore.

What happened in Gaza two years ago was the last straw. No one in the world can condone or turn a blind eye on the repetition of such a thing anymore.

During a state visit to Moscow marking the 65th anniversary celebrations of the Allied victory over the Nazis, Israeli President Shimon Peres told Russian President Medvedev, who leaves Monday for a two-day state visit to Damascus, that he should “send him [Syrian President Basher Assad] a clear message: Israel is not interested in border escalation or a war, this is the last thing we want. We extend our hand in peace to Syria, but there must be one basic condition, Assad must stop his support for terror and stop trafficking weapons and missiles to Hezbollah.”

Middle East Inside line: Israel's Nuclear Problem; Syrian Tensions with US & Israel

Israel's Nuclear Trouble: On Wednesday, at the United Nations conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the ~US, Russia, Britain, France, and China voiced support for making the Middle East a zone free of nuclear arms. There are two messages: one for Iran's nuclear programme and one for Israel's secret nuclear agenda.

"We are committed to a full implementation of the 1995 NPT resolution on the Middle East and we support all ongoing efforts to this end," the five permanent members of the UN Security Council members said in a statement. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukia Amano, in a letter, asked foreign ministers of the IAEA's 151 member states to share views on how to implement a resolution demanding that Israel accede to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and throw its nuclear facilities open to IAEA oversight.

Israel-Palestine: The Proximity Talks Starts Silently (Yenidunya)
Syria: A National Unity Government for More Democracy? (al-Assad)
Israel-Palestine Opinion: Discrimination in East Jerusalem (Eldar)
Israel-Palestine: Proximity Talks to Begin on Wednesday? (Yenidunya)

Syria-U.S. Relations at Odds?: On Monday, the U.S. renewed the six-year-old economic and diplomatic sanctions on Syria. In response Damascus criticized Washington harshly and said that the penalties reinforce hostilities in the region.



Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal Mekdad said the sanctions decision shows Washington has lost its credibility and failed to live up to its promises to Syria. "Obama is not serious about changing the relationship between the U.S. and Arab and Islamic states in the Middle East," Syrian officials said.

Hezbollah-Syria-Israel Triangle: On Tuesday, although there is still no evidence that Scud missiles were transferred to Hezbollah, the Israeli army's head of intelligence research, Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, told the Knesset that the Scud transfer was the "tip of the iceberg", .
"Even today Hezbollah has missiles of all ranges types, including solid-fueled rockets that have a longer range are extremely accurate."

Baidatz then drew the picture of a multiple threat:

Hezbollah's long-range rockets allow them to position launchers deep within Lebanese territory and cover ranges far greater than we aware of in the past.

Hezbollah in 2010 is very different to Hezbollah in 2006 in terms of military capability, which has advanced a great deal. Hezbollah is now regarded by the Syrians as a component of their defense establishment.

Lastly and paradoxically,Baidatz stated that a political settlement with Israel is still a priority for Damascus:

A political settlement with Israel is high on Syria's list of priorities and intelligence shows a will to reach an agreement – but on their terms, meaning a return of the Golan Heights and American involvement.

Military intelligence believes Syria could radically alter its role – but Assad feels that political progress with the current Israel government is impossible and has therefore avoided confidence-building measures.