Gaza LiveBlog: Israel Forces Attack Freedom Flotilla, Up to 19 Killed (31 May)

0755 GMT, 1 JUNE: Updates continue in our LiveBlog, "The Politics After the Attack", for Tuesday.

2330 GMT: The New York Times reports one administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity concerning the future of Israeli-Palestinian talks mediated by Senator George Mitchell. In terms of the divide between the Israeli Government and the Obama Administration, the official said: “We’re not sure yet where things go from here.”

Mitchell is still expected to attend the Palestine Investment Conference in the West Bank city of Bethlehem on Wednesday and Thursday.

2200 GMT: Vice Admiral Eliezer Marom, head of the Israeli Navy, instructs the troops intercepting the Gaza flotilla:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yphfyN0dqi8&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Gaza Flotilla Video: Questions from Last Report Before Israeli Attack
Gaza Video: “If You’re Watching This, The Flotilla Has Been Attacked"

2110 GMT: The first result of the UNSC emergency meeting: Members urged Israel to lift its economic blockade of the Gaza Strip!

Assistant Secretary-General Oscar Fernandez-Taranco said the bloodshed would have been avoided if repeated calls on Israel to end the "counterproductive and unacceptable" blockade of Gaza had been heeded.

Most members of the 15-nation body joined the call for an investigation.

2030 GMT: IDF releases pictures of weapons found on the Mavi Marmara flotilla ship.

1930 GMT: The opposition leader Tzipi Livni gave an interview to the Turkish channel, TRT. She said that "there was a need to stop these ships" which were "not on a humanitarian mission".

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CkBt79S6M0&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

Gaza Flotilla Attack: Israel Line “We Are Sorry but It Was a Life-Threatening Situation!”

1915 GMT: Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu criticized Israel harshly at UNSC emergency meeting. Remarkably, he said:

This assault against 600 civilians from 32 countries can never be justified. We watched a live barbarian show.

Israel committed a crime. It is a crime committed by the state itself. Any state committing this crime will loose its legitimacy in the international arena.

The day when the line between terrorists and states blurred is today, a day leaving a bloody stain on the history of humanity.

1855 GMT: Speaking to Channel 10, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said:

Israel is a sovereign state and cannot accept the undermining of its sovereignty. Israel has stopped ships in international waters before and when ships refuse to accede to warnings and obey instructions, we have the right to board them under international law.

1845 GMT: Israeli President Shimon Peres, who was scheduled to meet with former US Secretary of State George Shultz on Monday, canceled his meeting. He said:

Israel is a democratic country with an obligation to defend its citizens and cannot condone the arrival of Gaza-destined goods and ships without inspecting them. The violent and provocative flotilla was backed by Hamas, whose support was that of terror and opposition to peace.

1830 GMT: IDF released a new statement:

The following is a summary of the number of injuries and casualties in today’s incident in which IDF naval forces were met with extremely violent resistance on board the Mavi Marmara.  According to the most recent reports, a total of seven soldiers were wounded – four soldiers were moderately wounded, of which two were initially in critical condition, as well as an additional three soldiers who were lightly wounded.  Among the violent activists, there were nine casualties as a result of the soldiers defending themselves.

It should be emphasized that both the State of Israel and the IDF made repeated calls to the flotilla, telling them that all goods and humanitarian aid could be transferred according to the secure and approved methods in place today, as is done on a near daily basis.  Unfortunately, this was not the case. IDF naval forces were met with premeditated violence, evident by the activists’ use of clubs, metal rods, and knives, as well as the firing of two weapons stolen from the soldiers, causing for defensive action on behalf of the forces who felt their lives were endangered.

1815 GMT: UN Security Council's emergency meeting started.

1730 GMT: The Mavi Marmara was docked at Ashdod. 500 activists on board will be arrested of deported.

1700 GMT: Finally, pictures of Mavi Marmara reached media after 15 hours. The ship is being escorted by Israeli Navy off the port of Ashdod.

1645 GMT: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he regretted deaths but also added that Israeli troops had right to self-defense.

1630 GMT: CNN correspondent Atia Abawi said: "Israeli government confirms that 25 activists are in stages of deportation and at least 50 are detained after not giving them identification".

1620 GMT: The details of the phone conversation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama were given by the White House:

This morning between 10:00 and 10:15 AM CDT, the President spoke by phone with Prime Minister Netanyahu. He said he understood the Prime Minister's decision to return immediately to Israel to deal with today's events. They agreed to reschedule their meeting at the first opportunity. The President expressed deep regret at the loss of life in today's incident, and concern for the wounded, many of whom are being treated in Israeli hospitals. The President also expressed the importance of learning all the facts and circumstances around this morning's tragic events as soon as possible.

1605 GMT: Turkish daily Hurriyet reported that NATO's spokesman James Appathurai had stated that the organisation would be gathered extraordinarily, at the request of Turkey.

NATO issued a very short statement earlier today: "NATO is deeply concerned about the loss of life in this incident. We look forward to a further establishment of the facts of what has happened."

1600 GMT: IDF said Defne Y, the 5th ship in Gaza flotilla, cleared of its crew - Mavi Marmara currently being brought into Ashdod Port.

1555 GMT: Al Jazeera English correspondent Sherine Tadros reports, "We're hearing 14 activists have agreed to be deported and on way home;50 taken to prison in southern Israel resisting deportation."

1550 GMT: Pictures of wounded activists were released. Plastic handcuffs during the transport of heavily wounded ones are noteworthy.

1548 GMT: The United Nations Security Council will meet on Monday afternoon for an emergency session that will start at 1 P.M., New York time.

1545 GMT: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in Chile: "This is a state terrorism."

1515 GMT: While on his way to Washington, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said: "This is clearly a piracy. Israel must apologize and answer. According to unconfirmed information, we have around 50 wounded and 10 martyries. No country is above the international law."

Meanwhile, tens of thousands people are protesting in front of Israel's Consulate General in Istanbul.

1500 GMT: Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning Israel:

Israel has once again clearly demonstrated that it does not value human lives and peaceful initiatives through targeting innocent civilians. We strongly condemn these inhuman acts of Israel. This grave incident which took place in high seas in gross violation of international law might cause irreversible consequences in our relations.

Besides the initiatives being conducted by our Embassy in Tel Aviv, this unacceptable incident is being strongly protested and explanation is demanded from Israeli Ambassador in Ankara, who has been invited to our Ministry.

Whatsoever the motives might be, such actions against civilians who are involved only in peaceful activities cannot be accepted. Israel will have to bear the consequences of these actions which constitute a violation of international law.

May God bestow His mercy upon those who lost their lives. We wish to express our condolences to the bereaved families of the deceased, and swift recovery to the wounded.

1440 GMT: Israel's Portrayal. Amidst the rush of Israeli depictions of the attack --- with the continuing use of the word "lynching", now from the commandos who carried out the assault --- this story stands out from a "Ron Ben Yishai" in YNet:

Navy commandoes slid down to the vessel one by one, yet then the unexpected occurred: The passengers that awaited them on the deck pulled out bats, clubs, and slingshots with glass marbles, assaulting each soldier as he disembarked. The fighters were nabbed one by one and were beaten up badly, yet they attempted to fight back.



However, to their misfortune, they were only equipped with paintball rifles used to disperse minor protests, such as the ones held in Bilin. The paintballs obviously made no impression on the activists, who kept on beating the troops up and even attempted to wrest away their weapon.

1435 GMT: Washington's Reaction. The US statement, given by White House spokesman Bill Burton, is far more restrained than the UN denunciation of Israel (1330 GMT) and even Britain's expression of concern (1035 GMT). Burton said the Obama administration "deeply regrets the loss of life and injuries sustained" and officials are "currently working to understand the circumstances surrounding this tragedy".

1430 GMT: The 4th ship in the flotilla is now being brought into port in Ashdod.

1420 GMT: The Israeli Line. The Israeli military has released its version of today's attack on the Freedom Flotilla, complete with an aerial video:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bU12KW-XyZE&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

1410 GMT: Glenn Greenwald, in a bitter denunciation of the Israeli attack, offers an overview both of the Freedom Flotilla and of the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

1400 GMT: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cancelled his trip to Washington. He was due to meet President Obama tomorrow.

1330 GMT: The British Government, via Foreign Secretary William Hague, has issued this statement:

I deplore the loss of life during the interception of the Gaza Flotilla. Our Embassy is in urgent contact with the Israeli Government. We are asking for more information and urgent access to any UK nationals involved.‪ ‪

We have consistently advised against attempting to access Gaza in this way, because of the risks involved. But at the same time, there is a clear need for Israel to act with restraint and in line with international obligations. It will be important to establish the facts about this incident, and especially whether enough was done to prevent deaths and injuries. ‪

This news underlines the need to lift the restrictions on access to Gaza, in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1860. The closure is unacceptable and counter-productive. There can be no better response from the international community to this tragedy than to achieve urgently a durable resolution to the Gaza crisis.

1200 GMT: An Al Jazeera correspondent reports from Ashdod: "Israeli hecklers continue to make if hard for us to report the story....They are only heckling Arab media, such as Al Jazeera and Al Arabiyya....While Arab protestors and left-wing Israelis escorted away by police, they don't seem to be doing much to stop the right-wing hecklers."

1105 GMT: The 2nd boat of the flotilla is nearing port in Ashdod.

1045 GMT: Amidst protests in Turkey against the attack on the Freedom Flotilla, the Turkish Ambassador to Israel has been recalled. Israeli authorities have advised citizens not to travel to Turkey.

The Turkish Deputy Prime Minister has condemned Israel: “This operation will leave a bloody stain on the history of humanity.”

1035 GMT: The first ship of the flotilla is now in Ashdod. Al Jazeera English is reporting up to 19 dead.

The United Nations has issued a statement: "Such tragedies are entirely avoidable if Israel heeds the repeated calls of the international community to end its counterproductive and unacceptable blockade of Gaza."

1015 GMT: Justifying the Attack. Back from a break to find more of the same on Israeli side --- Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon has claimed that the deaths resulted from a "provocation" by the passengers of the flotilla: "On the deck we found weapons which were used against the forces. The organizers' intent was violent and the results were unfortunate. Israel regrets the loss of life. We called the organizers once and again the stop the provocations."

Israel Defense Forces are claiming via Twitter, "5 soldiers injured during flotilla mission --- 2 severely and 3 moderately".

0845 GMT: The Arab League has said it will hold an emergency meeting tomorrow over the attack on the Freedom Flotilla.

0830 GMT: More footage of the Israel attack, this time from a Turkish source, complementing the video we have posted, before commandoes boarded the ship. There are graphic images of wounded and a correspondent declaring, "We are under attack from all sides."

0820 GMT: Schools have been closed and shelters opened in the Israeli port of Ashdod, where Israeli forces are towing the Freedom Flotilla.

0815 GMT: We have posted video of the last report from Al Jazeera correspondent Jamal Elshayyal from the lead ship of the Freedom Flotilla, made moments before Israeli commandos boarded. I have asked some questions, in light of Elshayyal's report, about the Israeli account that commandos were merely defending themselves.

0745 GMT: Amidst the presentation by Israeli officials of their version of this morning's events, we post a video --- made before the assault --- by a Free Gaza Movement member: "If You're Watching This, The Flotilla Has Been Attacked". The speaker, Caoimhe Butterly, anticipates the post-attack political contest which is unfolding on this LiveBlog.

0730 GMT: Speaking on Al Jazeera English, Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan counters the Israeli allegations: "None of those [on the ships] was part of Hamas; they were supporters and activists for the human rights of Palestinians."

0725 GMT: As Al Jazeera English tries to assess the Israeli military's press conference, members of the crowd in Ashdod stand behind the reporter with a large Israeli flag.

0720 GMT: Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has declared three days of mourning for those killed in the Freedom Flotilla.

0715 GMT: The "Lynching" of the Commandos. Israeli military spokeswoman Liebovich responds to a question:

"If you have one soldier and you have a dozen activists attacking that soldier, this is a lynch. When the passengers on this ship are trying to break the soldier's legs and arms, this is what I call a lynch. This is what happened....We had no intention to confront these passengers."

(Liebovich adds that she is "sure" the flotilla's passengers were not human rights activists but were connected with Hamas.)

Readers may compare this "lynch" to the live images aboard the ship when the commandos landed, currently being re-broadcast in the LiveFeed.

0710 GMT: The Israeli Propaganda Push. With communications with the aid ships cut off (CNN rather hopelessly is using vague reports from a correspondent in Cairo and then saying, "We have been unable to contact anyone in the flotilla"), Israeli authorities are trying to fill the space with their case.

Israel Defense Forces spokeswoman Amital Liebovich has given a press briefing that Israeli commandos faced "severe violence" --- a "lynch" --- by the flotilla's passengers with "sharp items" and "knives": "Live fire was used."

Liebovich says six Israeli commandos were injured "as well as" 10 passengers killed.

Liebovich insists, "There is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza" and adds, "The passengers of this flotilla...prepared themselves for violence against their soldiers."

Liebovich's press conference is complemented by this Israeli military statement: “During the takeover, the soldiers encountered serious physical violence by the protesters, who attacked them with live fire.” The "lynch" theme had already appeared, before the briefing, in The Jerusalem Post.

0644 GMT: The Israeli Line (cont.). The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs is pushing a film clip of the Israeli military issuing a warning to the Freedom Flotilla before boarding the Mavi Marmara: "The Israeli government supports delivery of humanitarian supplies to the civilian population in the Gaza Strip and invites you to enter the Ashdod port."

I've already seen the clip on Al Jazeera English.

0642 GMT: Contrary to other reports, Israel authorities say the flotilla ships will be towed to the port of Ashdod.

0640 GMT: Political Reaction. Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas has asked the Palestinian Authority to suspend all negotiations --- direct or indirect --- with Israel.

0635 GMT: Israeli Army says four Israeli naval commandos were injured: 1 seriously, 1 moderately, 2 lightly. It claims "light ammunition" was coming from flotilla ships so their troops "fought back".

0625 GMT: The last blog entry from Abbas Al Lawati from the attacked ships:

I've just heard that Israel is expected send divers to take control of vessels from below.

There were reports of helicopters flying overhead a little while ago but it turns out it was a flase alarm. There was, however, a flashing light hovering above one of the challenger ships. It could be a helicopter, possibly commandos. The Mavi Marmara is massive so I doubt commandos will approach us but both Challengers are just small passenger boats.

0615 GMT: The Israeli Line. David Saranga of the Israeli Consulate in New York gives an early indication of how West Jerusalem will defend the military operation, despite the 16 deaths.

Saranga lifts this line from London's Daily Telegraph, in an article on the Israeli attack: "Marine commandos had opened fire after being attacked with axes and knives by a number of the passengers on board the ships, the [Israeli] private channel 10 said."

(Minutes later, Saranga points readers to a page, "The Jewish Internet Defense Force", which recycles the line about axes/knives.)

In Israel, police have declared a heightened state of emergency, deploying thousands of forces around the country. A crowd in the Israeli port of Ashdod have been heckling the crew of Al Jazeera Arabic.

0605 GMT: The Turkish Government has condemned the Israeli attack. A crowd of demonstrators have surrounded the house of the Israeli Ambassador and asked him to leave the country.

The ship attacked this morning, the Mavi Marmara, is Turkish-registered.

0603 GMT: The Israeli attack was on the Mavi Marmara, one of the six ships in the flotilla. In a report from the ship just before communications were cut during the raid, Jamal Elshayyal of Al Jazeera said two people had been killed and organisers were ordering passengers to go inside the ship's cabin. The ship's white flag had been raised.

Sounds of live fire could be heard as Elshayyal reported, despite the raising of the flag of surrender.

0600 GMT: We are continuing the live feed from Turkish outlets of the Freedom Flotilla. Warning: images may be distressing.

0545 GMT: We wake this morning to find that overnight Israeli forces have attacked the six ships of the "Freedom Flotilla" carrying aid to Gaza.

Israel Army Radio says at least 16 members of the convoy were killed and more than 30 injured when troops boarded the flotilla. The assault took place in international waters, 65 kilometres (40 miles) off the Gazan coast.

The attack by armed Israeli soldiers was accompanied by helicopters. Al Jazeera's Jamal Elshayyal, on board one of the ships, the Mavi Marmara, said Israeli troops used live ammunition.

Israeli Army Radio said soldiers opened fire "after confronting those on board carrying sharp objects".

The Free Gaza Movement, the organisers of the flotilla, say the ships are now being towed to the Israeli town of Haifa, instead of the port of Ashdod, where Israel said members of the flotilla would be held in detention. The Movement claims the step is to avoid waiting journalists.

The Latest from Iran (16 May): Intimidation After the Executions

2115 GMT: Nuclear Twist (cont.). According to Reuters, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is saying Iran, Turkey, and Brazil have reached agreement on procedure for a uranium swap deal. Details will follow on Monday.

1930 GMT: Nuclear Twist. Reuters is following Turkish television in reporting that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who on Friday had cancelled his trip to Tehran, has reversed his decision and is now in Iran.

The move is a signal that the Iranian talks with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have put a deal on the table which involves Turkish mediation. Could there also be a role for Turkey as a broker in a uranium swap outside Iran?

NEW Iran Blackout: Shutting Down the Movies
Iran: Last Words of Executed Alamhouli “For God’s Sake, Let Me Hear My Mother’s Voice” (Ghazi)
The Latest from Iran (15 May): Executions, Detentions and a Cancellation

1835 GMT: Intimidation (cont.). In a letter to Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, 175 members of Parliament have called for immediate action against opposition figures as "heads of sedition”.


In the letter, read out by conservative MP Hassan Ghafouri Fard in the Majlis, the legislators called for “accelerating” the investigation of complaints against Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi.

The MPs also state that the “heads of the sedition” have no regard for the judicial system in Iran and have attacked Karroubi and Mousavi for their recent remarks against the sudden and unjust execution of five political activists on charges of terrorism.

1630 GMT: The Brazil Dimension (cont.). The Associated Press has a different take on the Lula-Ahmadinejad talks from other reports (see `1600 GMT). While there was no reference to any discussions on uranium enrichment, there was a defense of Iran's nuclear programme:

Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva met with Iranian leaders on Sunday, and called the relationship between the two countries “strategic.”

Speaking in defense of Iran’s right to “independently navigate its course” to seek development and improvement, Silva stressed that a peaceful nuclear research program was within Iran’s sovereign rights.

1600 GMT: The Brazil Dimension. Iranian state media's presentation of today's meetings between President Ahmadinejad and Brazi's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has featured the two leaders' talk of economic co-operation but said nothing about the nuclear issue. mbitions, an initial joint statement from the two leaders was silent on the subject.A joint statement focused on an increase of two-way trade.

Lula also said Brazil will finance 1 billion Euros of food exports to Iran over the next five years to make trade between the two countries less dependent on foreign banks.

1540 GMT: Sentencing Human Rights Activists (In Absentia). Iran has sentenced award-winning women's rights activist Shadi Sadr and fellow activist Mahbubeh Abbas-Gholizadeh to jail and lashes over a protest in 2007.

The lawyer for the two women, Mohammad Mostafai, said Sadr was sentenced to six years in jail and 74 lashes for acting against national security and harming public order. Abbas-Gholizadeh received two-and-a-half years in jail and 30 lashes on similar charges.

(Read Sadr's article, "Getting to the Point on Detentions and Human Rights", her speech at the UN on abuse, justice, and human rights, or her acceptance of the 2009 Human Rights Defenders Tulip award.)

Both women, who are now abroad, were arrested with 30 other protestors at a rally in March 2007 outside a Revolutionary Court where four fellow feminists were on trial.

1325 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More on the arrest of Mohsen Armin, spokesman and senior member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party....

Armin's daughter said security officers, with a search warrant and arrest warrant, took away her father and confiscated his laptop, some documents, and identification cards. Iranian authorities tried to arrest Armin justafter the election and after the Ashura demonstration (27 December), but he was away from home on both occasions.

1200 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Hashemi Rafsanjani, former President and current head of the Expediency Council, has condemned censorship and fabrication of facts, describing policies behind these actions as "futile."

Rafsanjani said that, in today’s world, “[We must] coordinate actions with human principles....We must create an open space and fall into step with the rest of the world.”

1110 GMT: Spin of the Week? A reader kindly alerts us to a reference in the Iranian media to the claimed strike in Kurdistan.

Tabnak insists that any news and pictures of empty streets in Kurdistan's cities were just foreign propaganda and claims that thousands of Kurds marched in support of the "Kurdish Leadership Conference".

1100 GMT: No Connection. Move Along. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has denied any link between Iran's released of French graduate student Clotilde Reiss, arrested last July, and a French court's acquittal of Iranian businessman Majid Kakavand on charges that he exported US military technology to Iran: "The two cases have absolutely no relation with each other."

1010 GMT:  Political Prisoner Watch. Mohsen Armin, spokesman and senior member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, has been arrested.

0930 GMT: In the Universities. Rah-e-Sabz carries a report claiming that professors are now being appointed for their willingness to support the Government line rather than for their academic qualifications.

0900 GMT: Conservatives Defend the System (Against Hardliners). The interesting conflict between "Green Movement v. Government" continues with two statements within the establishment warning of "hardliner" challenges.

Mohammad Nabi Habibi, head of the Motalefeh Party has said, "Our discord is like a red carpet for reformists." Majid Ansari of the Combatant Clergy Association argues that the cooperation of "moderate hardliners" and reformists is not a current outside acceptable Iranian politics.

0855 GMT: Beating the Oil Squeeze? Whatever the outcome of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's visit to Tehran on the nuclear front, it looks like Iran can claim a success over oil.

The head of Brazil's energy regulator, Haroldo Lima, has said that Lula and Iranian leaders are likely to sign a memorandum opening the way for Brazilian companies to participate in the modernization of Iran's oil sector: "We have equipment, the engineering and the parts for the oil sector that can help in their modernization."

Lima said that, in exchange, Iran could provide Brazil with drills to help in the exploration of deep-water oil: "In Brazil we have a great shortage of companies that have the capacity to do this exploration. They are making drills available."

0845 GMT: Intimidation (cont.). The Resalat newspaper has continued the threat against Mousavi, fed by regime officials like Gholam-Hossein-Elham of the Guardian Council and Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi: the leaders of "fitna" (sedition) need to feel the iron fist of the law.

0800 GMT: Challenge. Mohammad Hashemi, a member of the Expediency Council and brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has declared that if the people do not want it, the Iranian system cannot exist.

0740 GMT: Film Corner. As director Jafar Panahi continues to sit in Evin Prison, we've posted a feature on the latest warning by Iranian authorities to actors and filmmakers: don't cooperate with foreigners without permission.

0730 GMT: Economy Watch. Minister of Welfare and Social Security Sadegh Mahsouli has said that the subsidy reduction plan will start this week in three Iranian provinces.

0715 GMT: That Dangerous Foreign Education. Mohammad Shahryari, a member of Parliament's National Security Committee, has confirmed that the committee is reviewing the situation of 400 Iranian students at British universities.

The 400 are the children of Iranian officials. Karim Abedi, another committee member, had said on Friday, "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has informed Iranian ambassadors abroad to take the actions necessary to prevent the children of Iranian officials from studying at foreign universities."

Shahryari said, "Though no final decision has been made on the return of these children to the country so far, it deems advisable for these people not to study at British universities."

0710 GMT: Speaking of Intimidation.... Member of Parliament Moussa Ghorbani, speaking with Fars News, claims that Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, has said authorities will pursue those who create “anxiety” in society through text messages.

Ghorbani, who met Larijani on Saturday, said he was told that the judiciary will track down “destructive” text messages which lead to the “anxiety of public opinion”.

0640 GMT: And the Future? Dowlatabadi also gave a lengthy statement about the supposed resolution of 217 post-election cases, and there was further news from his office. Amongst the decisions were the confirmation of six death sentences and the commutation of four to jail terms (see yesterday's updates).

Defenders of the Iranian regime will argue that this establishes the due process and fairness of the judicial system. Those who are more critical may see a carrot-and-stick approach. While giving way on some of the "mohareb" (warriors against God) sentenced to hang, in part because of the reaction to last week's executions and claims that they are linked to political intimidation before 12 June, Tehran is also showing its determination that some protestors will sit on Death Row and could on short notice face the noose.

0620 GMT: A week ago, we were just getting the news of the sudden early-morning executions of 5 Iranians --- Farzad Kamangar, Mehdi Eslamian, Ali Heydarian, Farhad Vakili, and Shirin Alamhouli --- at Evin Prison. Today we begin with the latest attempt to defend the executions, the statement of Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi as reported by Press TV:

[Dowlatabadi] said that three of the five people were arrested in 2006 for carrying five kilograms of explosives, adding that other weapons including 57 rockets and 600 shells were later confiscated from the terrorists.

He revealed that the five began their terrorist activities shortly after the formation of the Party for Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK) and bombed the governor's office and a state building in the western province of Kermanshah.

“Fortunately they were arrested before carrying out a planned bombing in Tehran.”

Dolatabadi said that the five had been indicted in 2007 and were tried and found guilty in 2008. “They appealed the verdict but the Supreme Court upheld their convictions.”

The prosecutor said that four of the five terrorists were PJAK members and had been directly involved in the terrorist attacks carried out by the group. He added that the four had been convicted of moharebe (waging war on God) and acting against national security.

According to Dolatabadi, the only woman among the four terrorists was arrested in 2008 for an attempted bombing in an IRGC base. “She was tried and found guilty in 2008 and her conviction was upheld in 2010.”

The last of the five was a member of the counterrevolutionary Tondar group and was convicted for complicity in a deadly bombing in the city of Shiraz in 2008, the prosecutor added.

None of Dowlatabadi's assertions above, or in a longer version of the interview in Fars News, are backed up by evidence, thus leaving open the queries that remain over the case (see Thursday's updates).

Just as interesting, however, as Press TV still refuses to name the five executed is the timing of Dowlatabadi's high-profile interview. If the Iranian regime is so secure that these executions were acceptable, in law or in public opinion, why is it continuing to plead the case several days later?

Iran First-Hand: Assessing Life and Opinions in Tehran (Majd)

Hooman Majd, a prominent US-based analyst of Iran, recently returned to Tehran for a visit and wrote this account for Foreign Policy. An EA correspondent evaluates:

"Majd doesn't address the core political issues. His claim that one should judge a 'military dictatorship' on the basis of the number of armed personnel on the streets is laughable.
I am sure that you won't find men in boots in the headquarters of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps consortium which control Iranian telecomnucations now or in the engineering arm of the IRGC. They have gone deep into the economic and political fabric
and are altering it steadily."

The Latest from Iran (9 May): Not Going Away

Memo to Secretary [of State Hillary] Clinton: Iran is neither a military dictatorship nor or a police state. Yet. There is no visible military presence at the international airport, where despite a European ban on flights to and from its capitals in mid-April when I arrived, jumbo jets discharged and loaded thousands of passengers a day arriving and leaving for points east and west. Tehran's sleek and bustling Imam Khomeini international airport reminded one that an Icelandic volcano had temporarily managed to do to Europe what no American administration has succeeded in doing to Iran: isolating it --- though not for lack of effort.



There is also no visible military presence in the sprawling city of some 12 million souls and at times it seems an equal number of cars --- save for the occasional hapless-looking, newly shorn, and unarmed young army conscript in fatigues, begging a ride on the back of a motorcycle or in a shared taxi, a presence that has always been visible in any city in Iran, even in days of the monarchy. The mind-numbing traffic congestion, complete gridlock, on the newly transformed one-way Valiasr Avenue, the broad boulevard that runs from the south of the city all the way to the foothills in the north, the Sunset Boulevard of Tehran and the scene of many past marches and demonstrations in support of the Green Movement that sprang up after last year's disputed election, is as it always was.

Drivers --- men, and often mal-veiled and heavily made-up women --- listen to loud pop music of the sort frowned upon by religious authorities, just as they always did, ignoring traffic laws and even the entreaties of the occasional traffic cop. The restaurants and cafes are bustling; weekly, and sometimes nightly, salons at the homes and offices of the elite continue unabated in a city where public entertainment is limited, the conversations usually fearlessly political in nature. Taxi drivers, reliable barometers for the average Iranian as they include everyone from professional working class drivers to the highly educated unemployed, and moonlighting office workers, continue to offer wisdom on everything from the political situation to social ills and the state of the economy.

My driver at the airport, an eager man in his forties who jumped out of his car with a smile, rather than the more normal scowl, to stow my suitcase, was likely from the professional class of cabbies -- for the airport trade is strictly controlled -- and it didn't take him long to explain his latest theory. "Business is bad, huh?" I first asked him, as he took off at an unsafe speed, barely missing a family struggling to load their private car with a mountain of luggage, presumably containing Western consumer goods from Dubai. "Yeah," he said, "there are no flights from Europe." I mentioned something about the travel ban potentially contributing to Iran's economic stagnation. "I hear Europe could be cut off for days, even weeks!" he excitedly replied. "But you know, Allah always finds a way to punish the wicked, doesn't He? England is the worst country in the world and what happens? Their airports are shut down by God."

I laughed. "England is evil," he continued. "What if their airports don't reopen for a month, or forever! What if Allah decides the volcano will continue to erupt forever? England will finally go down the drain, and we'll be standing!" My driver's dislike of the UK, and his suspicion that Britain is behind all of Iran's (and the world's) woes, is actually shared by many Iranians, even middle and upper-middle class Iranians, although perhaps not to his extent. But Britain, particularly since the Iranian presidential election of 2009 and in the age of a likeable Barack Obama, has to some degree replaced the US as the Great Satan (it was always labeled the "Little Satan", along with Israel) for Iranian supporters of the Islamic system. As if reading my thoughts, though, the driver then said, "Of course, I'm not saying we don't have problems here in Iran; not at all."

Indeed, all is not well in the Islamic Republic, not by long shot. Iran continues to suffer the same economic woes it has for some time, and there is a palpable, simmering discontent in the capital over the state of affairs. Inflation, unemployment, the lack of investment, anemic business opportunities, and looming sanctions all contribute to a malaise among the population that the government will have a difficult time curing.

I spent an evening with a friend, someone who spent 150 days in Tehran's notorious Evin Prison in 2009, charged with sedition. He was arrested in his apartment soon after the election and during the first series of protest marches and disturbances. Fingered as a neighborhood leader by a local shopkeeper, himself arrested and presumably bartering names for clemency, my friend, a music teacher and guitarist, spent much of his time in solitary confinement and was among the first group of four detainees whose court appearances were televised live in the summer. He was not physically abused and suffered no torture beyond that of incarceration in what is Iran's Alcatraz, but was subjected to frequent, lengthy interrogations --- sessions he actually began to look forward to as relief from the monotony of life in his cell.

The people, he told his interrogator, don't care who is President; what they care about is how their government will solve their problems. How will their government deal with the fact that 17-year-old girls are willing to sell their bodies to put food on the table for their families, or even just to buy a $30 handbag? He would tell the interrogator, a man from the intelligence division of the Revolutionary Guards --- anonymous and unwilling to let prisoners see his face --- that the people were fed up and thought they had voted for change, but were not agitating for revolt. He still believes, though, that if President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government is able to make significant progress in relieving economic pressures, and to some extent social pressures, it will not be an unpopular one.

My friend, an artist who was never politically active, surprisingly doesn't hold a grudge against either the system or his jailers; he also told me the warden of his unit, section 2A, less infamous than section 209 but for prisoners of the Guards, phoned him after he was released (and charges against him dropped) and said he hoped he did not take his arrest and detention "personally". Surprisingly, he doesn't. Both for the jailers and the jailed, the politics inside Evin evidently mirror the streets of Tehran and other cities.

Iranians --- both the 4000 or so arrested since last June, according to some estimates, and everyone else --- recognize that the government has been spectacularly successful in curbing overt political unrest, but some say it is too early to tell if Iran's Green Wave of 2009 was more akin to the Prague uprising or the Paris riots of 1968. Either way, Iran is changed --- there is no question that civil rights have become an issue that the government and the opposition will do battle over for some time --- but not necessarily in ways the Obama Administration would like.

Iran is not in a revolutionary, not even pre-revolutionary state and the emperor is, unlike the Shah of old (whose nakedness was revealed for all when he proclaimed in November 1978, on live national television, that he had "heard the people's revolution,"), still very much clothed. "We can only pray for the health and life of the rahbar," I heard many times in Tehran; people from all walks of life (including staunch reformists) agreeing that without the Supreme Leader firmly in control, the stability of the country was seriously at risk, or that a small and extremist group of politicians might accomplish what Clinton warned of, a military dictatorship, back in February.

A working-class acquaintance from South Tehran, one who told me last spring that Ahmadinejad would win the election even though he has boycotted every election in the Islamic Republic, was particularly dismissive of any talk of revolution or toppling the government. "Those on the other side of the water," he said, referring to Iranians in the United States, "exhort us to spill onto the streets and confront the system. For what? They want me to revolt on behalf of those who drive $300,000 Benzes on the streets of Tehran? Never."

The nuclear issue looms large here in Tehran -- there has never been as much talk and even anxiety over the possibility of a military assault on Iran, not even during George W. Bush's days -- but the issue seems to have become a distraction that impedes progress on all fronts, and not the weak point for the regime. My airport cab driver reminded me, as we were going around a traffic circle at an early-morning breakneck pace that he would be unable to repeat later in the day, that despite the ills of society and the political differences in Iran he recognized weren't disappearing as fast as the anti-government street demonstrations, Iranians had one thing in common. "We Iranians have namoos," he said, "and if anyone even thinks of ravishing her, our gheirat will take over. Iran is our namoos." Namoos is a man's wife, his woman; her chastity his responsibility to protect, and gheirat is pride and dignity -- concepts both Persian and Islamic and one reason women, "sisters" in the Islamic Republic, wear the hijab and many did even under the secular shah. What the driver meant was that if Iran were attacked, Iranians, and he presumably thought me as well, would defend her with their lives.

Tehran's nuclear summit in mid-April, dubbed "Nuclear Energy for All; Nuclear Weapons for None" and timed to contrast with Obama's own summit in Washington (to which Iran was not invited), was, despite a paucity of media coverage in the West, successful in laying out Iran's stated nuclear agenda -- non-proliferation as well as complete disarmament -- for a domestic audience and sympathetic listeners in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the developing world. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's opening address to the conference, read by his top foreign-policy advisor Ali Akbar Velayati, in which he emphatically proclaimed weapons of mass destruction haram, strictly forbidden in Islam, went a long way in convincing at least the pious that Iran is not developing nuclear arms (although it begged the question of whether nuclear and Muslim Pakistan, present at the conference, is a sinner state, a question the Japanese representative put to Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency and a moderator at one panel I observed).

But Iranians seem to also know that no summit, fatwa, or public proclamation by their officials will convince the United States that Iran is not hell-bent on building a nuclear bomb and then either deploying it against Israel, handing it over to terrorists, or using it to threaten the world at large (none of those scenarios appearing to be particularly plausible to the average citizen or even to citizens of the region). There are no scientific polls that can accurately gauge public support for Iran's nuclear posture, but here in the capital it is hard to find an Iranian who doesn't agree with at least the concept that Iran deserves to enjoy the same rights as other states when it comes to nuclear energy, even as many may find Ahmadinejad's diplomatic tactics distasteful. In that sense, the military parade in Tehran on the second day of the nuclear summit and the Revolutionary Guards' maneuvers in the Persian Gulf a week later were simply expressions of the national gheirat, particularly in light of escalating threats emanating from Washington and Tel Aviv.

Two days before the start of the Tehran nuclear summit, former President Mohammad Khatami, the founder of the reform movement and a leader of today's reformists, Green and otherwise, was barred from leaving the country to attend yet another nuclear conference in Hiroshima, Japan, where he was due to speak out, like his one-time colleagues in Tehran, against the evil of nuclear weapons (but not of the Ahmadinejad government, for the opposition leaders' nuclear policy is entirely in sync with the supreme leader). Although there was much chatter in Iran about the unprecedented act of denying a former president the right to free movement, guaranteed every free citizen under the constitution, genuine outrage was muted and the government subsequently denied that Khatami had been forbidden from traveling abroad.

Why? Perhaps it's because the population is weary of opposing a state apparatus that has shown itself capable of suppressing any outright dissent (or sedition, as it claims), or because the population is turning apathetic toward opposition leaders who seems to have been rendered impotent at a time when there are other pressing domestic issues, or perhaps because the state can act to hinder the opposition with relative impunity whenever the nuclear crisis threatens to boil over. Perhaps, despite the unrest of the past year, it's because the polarized society that Iran has become has not yet come together to decide exactly what it is that it wants, nor even exactly what it is that it doesn't. Talk to 20 people in Tehran on any given day and one might hear 20 different ideas of what, exactly, Iran is and what it should be. The ranks of the apathetic have grown since protests have died down. "These people [the ayatollahs] can give lessons to the Devil himself," one low-income person told me. "They will be in power another 50 years, at least. And if they can guarantee me one million toman [$1,000] a month, I'll support them 100 percent."

Khatami himself was unperturbed by the dishonor of being mamnoon-e khorooj, forbidden from travel, struggling as he is to continue his work while fending off accusations that he is subverting national security or is opposing not just the lack of civil liberties (and a free vote) but the very foundations of the state. He told me, though, that he didn't expect to be banned from travel in the future, or to be restricted from activities beyond what he is now, and he's probably right. Khatami is still enormously popular and despite the current period of relative quiet, his messages do not go unnoticed, either by the government or by the population at large.

In a car with a friend driving in the mountains north of Tehran one day, we stopped to give a ride to three hitchhikers -- young women who, unlike upper-class North Tehran youth, were properly and fully enveloped in black hijab and said they were on their way to pray at a Imamzadeh, the tomb of a relative of one of Shiite Islam's 12 saints. They were eager to engage in conversation, one of them asking what we thought of Ahmadinejad. "He's not good, is he?" she said, to my surprise. "I mean, things were better under the Shah."

I replied that she couldn't be old enough to remember the days of the shah, over 30 years ago. "Well, we've heard," she said with a shrug. "What about the days of Khatami?" I asked. She and her friends all smiled. "Khatami gol bood!' they said in unison. "Khatami was a flower!" It is one of the paradoxes of Iran that many of its youth, however religious, romanticize an era they know nothing of while still idolizing a cleric that helped usher in a radically different one.

April, normally a month when the weather turns hot, was not just mild but rainy, making Tehran almost free from its usual choking pollution. The almost unprecedented weather in the arid foothills of the Alborz mountain range to the north of the city wasn't attributed to global warming, as it undoubtedly would be in the West, but to forces unknown. Perhaps for that reason, devastating earthquakes, another force of nature often visited on Iranians, were also the talk of the town during my stay. President Ahmadinejad had declared just before my arrival that he had had a premonition of a large earthquake striking Tehran in the near future, and floated the idea that five million residents might consider leaving the city permanently to avoid the kind of calamity that would ensue. Hojjatoleslam Kazem Sedighi, the hard-line interim Friday Prayer Leader of Tehran, subsequently said in a sermon that the earthquakes were the inevitable result of the sin, vice, and corruption prevalent in Iran, particularly the vice of loose women dressed inappropriately, and steps should be taken to correct the problem.

Iranians by and large mocked the idea, and even cab drivers were aware of the "boobquake" campaign on Facebook, but not a few Iranians told me the earthquake fears were suddenly real among government officials because a large earthquake in Tehran, which might do to the city what Haiti's did to Port-au-Prince, would almost certainly bring down Ahmadinejad's government, if not the entire regime. Tehran, sitting on major fault lines, is remarkably unprepared for a quake larger than say, seven points in magnitude. That the hope of some Iranians -- even some who've participated in marches and demonstrations against the government -- for real change rests with an act of God or nature might be disturbing to those promoting regime-change from abroad, but it also speaks to the hopeful attitude some have that a government they view as incompetent might be readily discredited, and lose all the support it has among the religious and the working classes, by a mere spark, or a rumble.

From Tehran, despite the ambiguity of what the future holds, of what the Green Movement might be or become, or how the government will deal with the fundamental problems it faces, it is evident that neither debilitating sanctions nor military action (nor continued threats) will accomplish the Obama Administration's stated and unstated Iran policy goals -- to induce Iran to alter its nuclear course, or to lend support to an opposition that even if successful in bringing about change in the leadership, might not do so.

Most Iranians believe their country is powerful, and unlikely to bend to any Western threats. "The rahbar basically told Obama to go fuck himself, didn't he?" said my South Tehran friend, a little admiringly. "And what happened? Nothing. No one can touch these guys." Iran's nuclear program is entrenched as important, legal, and valid in the minds of most Iranians, and many of them with whom I've spoken find it hard to believe that there is no solution to the crisis short of armed conflict, fewer still believing that the U.S. military would even win a war.

Many Iranians can forgive Obama for his hesitancy to enter into serious negotiations with Iran in the aftermath of the elections of 2009, but given what they know now -- that barring a major natural calamity the government is here to stay --- it seems the U.S. president's only real option is to negotiate with Iran in good faith and reach an agreement that satisfies Western concerns about its nuclear program while also satisfying Iran that its rights as a sovereign nation have not been eroded. Perhaps only then might Iranians turn to seriously addressing domestic concerns; economic concerns about the gaping inequalities between the privileged and working classes, as well as political concerns about civil rights and the nature of the regime, which Iranians are perfectly capable of doing without outside interference. And only then will we be able to better judge whether Iran is turning into a reflexively anti-American military dictatorship, or is on the path to fulfilling the needs and wants, economic and otherwise, of its people.

Britain's Election LiveBlog: An Interim Assessment "Hung Parliament"

0146 GMT. An Interim Assessment. At the risk of breaking too soon, we are going to shut down for a few hours with the following projection:

1. CONSERVATIVES DO NOT WIN AN OVERALL MAJORITY: While there have been individual Tory successes in grabbing seats beyond their 1st 116 targets --- the magic number for a majority --- they have failed on too many occasions within the initial 116.

Britain’s Election on The Morning After: “Who Here Has a Mandate?”
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Britain’s Elections

The most important pattern appears to be regional: the Tories are doing well in Wales but having mixed fortunes in the Midlands and near London. And, with rogue exceptions, they are not making inroads on Lib Dem seats.

2. LIB DEMS MAKE NO ADVANCE: All the excitement over a three-party system, raised by the performance of Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg in the candidates' debates, seems to have drained away. The reasons will have to be discerned later --- my own suspicion is that the Fear Factor of a "hung Parliament" drove voters away in the final days (even though, ironically, we are likely to get that hung Parliament) --- but the Liberal Democrats, with a few exceptions, will hold what they have but gain little more.

3. LABOUR FACES A POLITICAL CHOICE: GO FOR THE COALITION? Labour appears to have held enough seats in the face of the Conservative onslaught to claim, as the British Constitution allows, the first attempt at a coalition. But can they do so with a weakened Gordon Brown and a prospective Liberal Democrat partner that appears less than politically strong in the face of tonight's results?


0155 GMT: Birmingham Edgbaston, which was supposed to declared almost 2 1/2 hours ago, is in a recount.

The Conservatives take Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire (target #42) by a scant 389 votes over Labour.

0145 GMT: The Liberal Democrats have taken Eastbourne (target #6) from the Conservatives, but the Tories have taken Harrogate (target #153) from the Lib Dems.

0140 GMT: Another blow to the Conservatives in Scotland. They have failed to take Perth (target #30).

And the Tories have not taken Eastleigh, held by the Liberal Democrats' Shadow Home Secretary Chris Huhne. The seat was #11 on the target list.

0130 GMT: The Conservatives have taken Tamworth (target #52) and Chester (target #15) from Labour.

The Tories, however, have not taken Telford (target #141). And I failed to note earlier that Angus in Scotland, held by the Scottish National Party, was target #39.

0125 GMT: The Conservatives have taken Nuneaton (target #85) from Labour with a majority of more than 2000. And the Tories have taken Basildon South (target #31) from Labour with an edge of almost 6000 on a swing of 7.5%.

However, the Tories have failed to take Bolton Northeast (target #94) in northwestern England, with a swing of only just over 1%.


0119 GMT: Vale of Glamorgan in Wales (Conservative target #32) declares.

Conservatives take the seat from Labour.

In an even bigger result, the Conservatives have overturned a 7000+ Lib Dem majority in Montgomeryshire in Wales. The seat was only #210 on the Tory list. Personal factors may have played a part: it was held by Lembit Opik, a politician known as much for unorthodox views and celebrity associations as for policies.

0115 GMT: The Conservatives have taken Aberconwy in Wales (target #5) from Labour.

0113 GMT: The prospect of the British National Party, noted for its views on race and ethnicity, taking its first seat in Parliament has receded. The BNP leader, Nick Griffin, is sayiing that he would be pleased to finish second in Barking.

0112 GMT: More holds for Labour (Glasgow Central, Airdrie, Cumbernauld, Livingston, Dunfermline, and Inverclyde in Scotland, Barnsley Central in Yorkshire, Hull West on Humberside, Bishop Auckland), Scottish Nationalist (Dundee East), and Conservative (Dorset West, Norfolk South, Hertford, Worcestershire Mid).

0107 GMT: Labour have taken back Glasgow East from the Scottish National Party. The seat had been a Labour stronghold but was lost in a by-election soon after Gordon Brown became Prime Minister.

0105 GMT: There is a recount at Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire (Conservative target #42).

0102 GMT: Exeter (Conservative target #176) declares. The seat is currently held by a Labour Minister, Ben Bradshaw.

Labour hold with a majority of almost 3000.

0100 GMT: Holds for Labour (Llanelli in Wales; Coatbridge), Conservative (Canterbury, Staffordshire South), and Scottish Nationalist Party (Angus).

0056 GMT: Labour have taken back Blaenau Gwent in Wales from an Independent.

Conservatives have held Newbury (Lib Dem target #20) with a 7.0% swing.

0053 GMT: Conservativres hold Sevenoaks near London and Christchurch on the south coast; Labour hold Wrexham in Wales and Gedling in the East Midlands.

The Gedling result is another blow to the Tories' hope of a majority. It was target #91.

0047 GMT: Conservatives hold Guildford, Labour hold Glenrothes in Scotland.

The Guildford result is significant, as it was the #3 turnout for the Lib Dems. The Tories turned a narrow majority into a sizable one with a 6.5% swing.

0043 GMT: Declaration from Tooting in London. This is Conservative target #112 (close to their borderline for an absolute majority).

Conservatives 19,514, Labour 22,038. Labour hold.

Sadiq Khan, a Transport Minister, gained 1% while the Tories gained 8% and the Lib Dems lost 5%. That feels to me like tactical voting to keep the Conservatives out, and it's also notable that the turnout of 69% was up 10% over 2005.

0039 GMT: Labour have held Islwyn in Wales.

0036 GMT: Brown still speaking, as the Conservatives take Battersea from Labour.

That's an essential gain for the Tories, as it was their #4 target. Labour had less than 1% edge in 2005; the Conservatives easily overturned that and won by 12%.

0034 GMT: Well, Gordon Brown held his seat.

More significantly, Labour did hold City of Durham with a sustained majority of 3000.

0030 GMT: Declaration from City of Durham. Labour had a majority of 3000; this is Lib Dem target #23.

Labour 20,496 (and here BBC cuts away to Gordon Brown's count in Kirkcaldy in Scotland!)....

0029 GMT: The Lib Dems have held East Fife in Scotland.

0027 GMT: The Turned-Away Voters. In Hackney in London, two Labour candidates, Diane Abbott and Meg Hillier, have submitted an official complaint about people refused entry into polling stations. More than 50 people allegedly were denied the vote after waiting for 45 minutes.

0023 GMT: Labour have held Sedgefield (Tony Blair's old constituency) in northeast England and Ynys Mon in Wales.

0021 GMT: Labour have held East Kilbride, Motherwell, and Hamilton West in Scotland and Vale of Clwyd in Wales.

0016 GMT: An Independent candidate has taken North Down in Northern Ireland. Lady Hermon refused to stand as a Conservative-allied candidate for the Unionists and increased her majority from 5000 to nearly 15,000.

0014 GMT: Conservatives hold Putney in southwest London. Which is no surprise whatsoever.

0010 GMT: The Torbay count is imminent. It's #54 on the Conservative list and is held by the Liberal Democrats with a majority of almost 3000.

Labour 3231, Lib Dem 23,126, Conservative 19,048. Lib Dems hold and that's a setback for the Conservatives. Indeed, they increased their majority with a 1.1% swing.

0009 GMT. Democratic Unionists hold Upper Bann in Northern Ireland. Labour hold Easington.

0007 GMT. Grasping. The normally excellent David Dimbleby tries to make news out of a single result (Kingswood): "We now be looking at an overall Conservative majority."

0003 GMT: First Conservative Gain. The Tories have taken Kingswood in Gloucestershire with a 9.4% swing from Labour.

The seat was relatively low on the Conservative target list at #131 (the Tories need to take 116 seats to claim a majority).

Funny, how the first major tremor of the night snuck past the media --- everyone was expecting it to come in Birmingham Edgbaston.

2359 GMT: The First Shift of the Night. Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, have gained Arfon from Labour.

2355 GMT: The Liberal Democrats have held Thornbury and Yate in southwest England. Labour have held Durham North and Darlington in northeast England.

2343 GMT. Turned-Away Voters. This is getting close to the label "scandal" for the media. David Dimbleby and Nick Robinson of the BBC have just taken apart Jenny Watson, the chair of the Electoral Commission, and --- with few results coming in --- anchorwoman Fiona Bruce is pounding away about the footage of "extraordinary scenes".

2341 GMT: Results. Sinn Fein have held West Tyrone in Northern Ireland. The Democratic Unionists (Ian Paisley Jr., the son of the famous Northern Ireland Unionist leader) has held North Antrim.

2338 GMT. BBC "Party Boat" Update. The writer  Armando Ianucci, forced to endure the gaze of Andrew Neil for a couple of minutes and to say something funny, reports back, "That was some form of living hell."

2335 GMT: Turned-Away Voters. Problems now reported in Hackney and Islington South in London, a Liverpool constituency, and other areas.

2330 GMT: Sky is reporting the first gain of the night, with Liberal Democrats taking Edinburgh South from Labour. BBC has not even mentioned this. We're checking.

(Sky have no numbers posted on their website so I have no clue why they are calling this.)

2320 GMT: The result in Birmingham Edgbaston, the first significant marginal expected to declare, is likely to be after 0000 GMT because of high voter turnout.

2308 GMT: The Election Commission has promised a thorough review of the problems with turned-away voters.

2300 GMT: The Iran Parallel? An EA reader writes, "The voting system was a total shambles, Iran-style shambles. Exact same thing happened in Tehran on 12 June."

2258 GMT: Turned-Away Voters. BBC is now reporting that in a marginal seat in Chester (Labour majority 793), more than 600 voters were turned away because electoral lists had allegedly not been updated.

The returning officer in Birmingham has issued a statement, "People have had 15 hours to vote, everyone knows that polling stations close at 10pm, it is clearly marked on polling cards. There have been a couple of polling stations where we’ve had to lock the doors but we have endeavoured to get as many people in as possible and process them."

2255 GMT: Significantly, neither the Conservative politicians on TV or the press release from Conservative Central Office talks of a majority. Instead, it's slogans like "it's a historic result --- the most seats gained by Conservatives in any election since 1931 --- more than Mrs Thatcher in 1979".

2245 GMT: The Turned-Away Voters. This could be a major issue, with David Dimbleby hammering away, "A rum job...pretty chaotic". Reports coming in of stations running out of ballot papers and further confirmation that some stations stayed open while others closed.

Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, is reportedly personally apologising to voters in his Sheffield constituency. Harriet Harman, Labour's Deputy Leader, has said some results "may be challenged".

2240 GMT: Sunderland Central comes in. Despite the efforts of the BBC to big this up --- "a 12.8% percent swing and it goes to the Tories" --- Labour is returned with a margin of more than 6700.

Labour drops 5%, Tories up 5%. But no big deal, even if the Swingometer shook a bit.

BBC analysts are talking a lot of tosh about this --- "One part of Sunderland is different from another part of Sunderland", blah, blah.

The significance is that, because there was a glimmer the Conservatives could take Sunderland Central, Labour probably put in a greater effort than in Sunderland South and Sunderland West and turned out more of its vote. Not much beyond this.

2235 GMT: So a 2nd declaration has come in, this one from Sunderland West: Labour 52.5%, Conservative 21.8%, Lib Dem 17.1%, British National Party 5.1%, UK Independence Party 3.4%.

That's a 11.6% swing from Labour to Conservative, which sounds massively impressive until you realise: when you had almost 60 percent of the vote in the previous election, there's a lot way to swing.

2230 GMT. Tea Break!

2215 GMT. Useless Academic Projection of the Night (1). "Professor Vernon Bogdanor, from Oxford University, tells the BBC that if the swing of 8.4% in Houghton and Sunderland South is repeated across the country we will not have a hung parliament - we will have an outright Conservative victory."

2210 GMT: David Dimbleby, the BBC's iconic anchorman, on the turning away of people as polls closed: "It's a disgrace, isn't it? It's really a disgrace. It's Third World politics and there ought to be an enquiry into it. It's an absolute disgrace."

2208 GMT: Revised Exit Poll. The BBC number-crunchers, doing deeper analysis on the exit polls, have slightly altered the projection: Conservatives 305, Labour 255, Lib Dem 61, Others 29.

2205 GMT: The BBC is reporting that Lewisham in outer London kept open the polls for an extra 30 minutes --- in contrast to Birmingham, Sheffield, and Manchester --- to accommodate queues of voters.

2200 GMT: Interrogating with Nothing. Jeremy Paxman, the BBC's "tough guy" anchorman, is hammering Labour's baby-faced Douglas Alexander with no more than the iconic exit poll. It's on the lines of "You really suck, shouldn't you concede right now?"

As Paxman asks his questions, 0.001538% percent of the results have come in.

2151 GMT. The First Result. Sunderland South, a safe Labour seat, is now declaring: British National Party 1961, Liberal Democrats 5292, UK Independence Party 1022, Conservative 8147, Labour 19,137, Independent Candidate 2462.

Labour holds easily with 50% of the vote. That's a 12% drop in the Labour vote. Tories up 5, Lib Dems down 1, Independents up 7.

Not much to read into this, as it appears a lot of the swing is due to the independent candidate who ran on local issues.

2150 GMT: Big Turnout? First reports, given delays in counts and reports of those turned away at 2100 GMT (BBC is adding Manchester to Sheffield and Birmingham), indicates a large voter turnout today.

2145 GMT: BBC Bluster. Jeremy Vine, seizing an opportunity to show off the BBC's new Swingometer, is talking absolute pants (that's an academic term).

2138 GMT: Just to Complicate Matters. News is coming in that "hundreds" of people have been unable to vote in Sheffield constituencies, as they were still standing in queues when the polls closed at 2100 GMT. Police have been called in to disperse them, and the prospect of a legal challenge --- if there is a close result in any of the affected constituencies --- may emerge.

(EA's Mike Dunn has just reported that police have also been called to a polling station in Birmingham.)

2130 GMT: Bring on the Lib-Lab Coalition. Labour's Peter Mandelson has now followed Harriet Harman in saying that "the sitting government" has the first go at forming a coalition if there is no overall majority. And he also has indicated, in a gesture to the Liberal Democrats, that electoral reform is "essential".

2123 GMT: I don't want to be too dismissive but the vaunted exit poll is based on 17,607 interviews in 130 polling stations. That's polling stations, not constituencies. And there are 650 constituencies, which means 520 didn't even get a sniff of a pollster.

Start from scratch.

2118 GMT: I think ITV, given the lighting on their "reaction set", intend to conduct a seance.

2114 GMT: My 1st Good Lord of the Evening. Good Lord, how many words will have to die in interminable sentences about the possible meaning/lack of meaning/wannabe-meaning of the exit poll?

CNN, bless 'em, have either figured out that this blather is useless or is so far behind that they are talking about this afternoon's plane crash that injured the former leader of the UK Independence Party (1915 GMT).

2109 GMT: The Sunderland Fun Run. There is a curious and cute tradition here of constituencies racing to be the first to return a result. Sunderland South, the hot favourite, has been practicing all year. Cars with ballot boxes are given exemptions to go through red lights, and the BBC has curious and cute shots of young campaign workers doing a Jesse Owens (or, as this is Britain, Linford Christie) to get the boxes to the returning officer.

The goal: a return by 2143 GMT.

2105 GMT: Political Shift. First interesting political twist of the evening. Labour's Deputy Leader Harriet Harman: "There is a general feeling we need to change the voting system."

That's a pretty blatant invite to the Liberal Democrats to talk coalition, meeting their call for a revision of Britain's "first past the post" voting.

2101 GMT: Intermission. Now we get 90 minutes of speculation before the first result is declared. Everyone is putting caveats as why exit polls may not wind up being accurate but....

The surprise is that the Liberal Democrats come out so low, losing three seats since 2005. But that in turn turns out to be bad news for the Tories: there is not much lower that the Lib Dems can go in an actual result, so the Conservatives have to hope the Labour vote is inflated in the exit poll to have any shot at a majority.

2100 GMT: The Exit Poll. BBC predicts hung parliament with a Conservative majority. Tories 307, Labour 255, Lib Dems 59, Others 29.

2058 GMT: Here We Go. I don't know about you, but I'm kind of excited. Everybody is showing off their gadgets and counting down....

2054 GMT: I know the BBC means well but sometimes it does try too hard: "The BBC's Jeremy Vine will be coming over all technological using some new-fangled graphics and a revamped swingometer to show you how things are shaping up through the night. He'll even be walking down a virtual Downing Street - paved with marginal seats."

2047 GMT: Fifteen minutes from the exit poll. It will be the only exit poll tonight, as all major broadcasters have agreed to use a single survey.

2045 GMT: The Delayed Vote. The postponement of the ballot in the Thirsk and Malton constituency, caused by the death of the UK Independence Party candidate, will make little difference to the outcome. It's a solid Conservative seat, with the Tories taking almost 52 percent of the vote in 2005.

2035 GMT: A quick shout-out to the good folks at the University of Birmingham student newspaper, Redbrick, who are running a "Polling Night Live".

(Fun Fact: the University of Birmingham Clock Tower, "Old Joe", is taller than Big Ben.)

2015 GMT: Best Marking Time Story. Waiting for the results, the BBC considers, "What Can You NOT Do in a Polling Station?"

Well, you can bring your dog: "Dogs may not yet be entitled to vote but they are allowed to come and watch as long as they don't disrupt the vote....In cases where a voter has two or more dogs and will struggle to control them while casting their ballot, polling station staff may hold the dogs' leads."

You may be able to wear political clothing: "We wouldn't want people coming in with overt political clothing," says [an election organiser] "[But] there's a candidate standing in Westminster as a pirate. And if he comes in to vote in a pirate costume as is likely, we won't turn him away. The same goes for any supporters coming to vote as pirates."

You can vote if you're drunk: "Polling station staff cannot refuse a voter simply because they are drunk or under the influence of drugs."

You can't vote with the loud accompaniment of Jay-Z: "We don't want people blasting music around the place as it would be disruptive," says the election organiser.

2000 GMT: One Hour to Go. In contrast to the US, with an extended lead-in, the networks here only go on-air five minutes before polls close (the exception is Sky News, which is trying to get a jump by starting now but finding precious little to say).

A quick update on those targets (1920 GMT) and their significance: if a net loss of 24 or more seats means Labour (currently 349 seats) loses its majority. However, for the Conservatives (210) to take power outright, they have to win a net 116 seats.

1920 GMT: How to Read an Election. One basic way of following tonight's shift in power, and specifically whether the Conservatives can take a majority in the House of Commons, is to track the "target seats", those requiring the small shift in vote to move to another party.

UK Polling Report has a handy list of the top 200 Conservative and top 100 Liberal Democrat targets (there is no Labour list, as UKPR is projecting no Labour gains and 111 Labour losses tonight).

Channel 4 has a timecheck for some of the most hotly contested seats --- the first key marginal, in Birmingham Edgbaston (home of the University of Birmingham) is expected to declare about 2330 GMT.

1915 GMT: Prelude. Election Day is eerie in Britain up to the close of voting. There's a formal ban on any polling until the first exit polls are released at 2102 GMT, two minutes after the ballot boxes are sealed. The candidates, after the round-the-clock campaigning this week, do no more today than pose for a photo opportunity as they cast their votes (always accompanied by smiling spouses). The mighty BBC pretends that nothing much is happening.

All of this means that there has been more chatter about Greek politics, with the unrest over the austerity measures, than British politics today. Yet the strangeness has been doubled because of the news that has broken through:

The former leader of the UK Independence Party, Nigel Farage, was injured when the biplane in which he was a passenger crashed in Northamptonshire. The plane was circling with a trailing campaign banner when it nose-dived, apparently because the banner became entangled in the tail.

The British National Party, best known for controversial views on race and ethnicity, has apparently been crippled by acrimony. After the permanent website was taken down by a disgruntled member who criticised the leadership (pages are now unavailable), party head Nick Griffin has posted a message on a "temporary website".

1900 GMT (Two Hours to Close of Polls): A bit of nostalgia for EA tonight. We formally launched in November 2008 with an Election LiveBlog, this one of the events that led to a President-elect Obama.

1400 GMT: From our base in the centre of Britain, we'll be bringing readers updates on the most interesting election in Britain in decades.

For starters, we've posted a Basic Guide, explaining the process and the prospects for the three major parties: the ruling Labour Government of Gordon Brown, the Conservatives led by David Cameron, and the Liberal Democrats headed by Nick Clegg. There is also a glance at other parties, such as the Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, the Green Party, the UK Independence Party, and the British National Party, and some tips for those new to the system and for veterans looking  for clues as to whether Britain will have a clear decision on the next Government by tomorrow.

As polls close at 2100 GMT (10 p.m. local time), we'll roll out the sharpest LiveBlog both on the twists and turns of the vote as it comes in and on the high and low points of a British media caught between serious observation and 3-D Swingometer showmanship.

Our reading at this point? The most likely outcome is a "hung Parliament", leading to days and even weeks of maneouvring for a coalition Government or a minority Government depending on bloc-building for every piece of legislation. The one "wild card" that could alter this outcome is a "Fear Factor", pushing voters who are wary of a hung Parliament away from the Liberal Democrats, the long-standing "third party" who are now on equal footing in this campaign. Even then, those last-minute switchers would have to move towards the Conservatives rather than Labour in significant numbers.

So put on the kettle for a cup of tea --- it's going to be a long night.

The Latest from Iran (6 May): Rattling the Cage

1500 GMT: Posturing. Michael Theodoulou of The National posts a concise article summarising the possible Brazilian mediation effort on Iran's nuclear programme and Tehran's naval exercises in the Persian Gulf.

1400 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Another statement from Hashemi Rafsanjani to decode. Meeting with a group of journalists and young political activists, he said:

Promoting awareness in people is the main and fundamental element of any progressive movement....Today all the people in any corner of the country have become more aware, cautious and knowledgable. Don’t doubt it, the growth of awareness among the different classes of the people will reform the society....

Wrong management of the resources and wealth of the country will cause under-development for future generations....Giving space for criticism and review at all levels should not be abandoned in the country....Be sure that honest efforts for the high principles of the revolution won’t be in vain and will have effective outcomes.

NEW Mahmoud’s Iran Wonderland: Ahmadinejad Says “I’m in Favour of Protestors”
NEW Iran Snap Analysis: Ahmadinejad’s Nuclear Roadtrip
Iran Follow-Up: Ahmadinejad “Bin Laden Lives in Washington DC!”
A Female Detainee in Iran: “Stripped by the Basiji”
The Latest from Iran (5 May): “Protest is Not Provocation”

0915 GMT: The Reformist Front. Speaking with the family of student activist Milan Asadi, detained since 1 December, Mehdi Karroubi claimed that the pressure on Iranian people had arisen because of the lack of independence of Iran's judiciary.


Former President Mohammad Khatami has written an open letter to Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, the "hard-line" leader of Tehran Friday Prayers, suggesting that he should not sacrifice his salvation for the well-being of others.

Reformist member of Parliament Mohammad Reza Tabesh has complained to Speaker of Parlaiment Ali Larijani over attacks on reformists' offices in several cities, alleging that Iranian authorities have not guaranteed security.

0910 GMT: Watch Your Back, Mahmoud. While President Ahmadinejad has been away, conservative member of Parliament Ali Motahari has been making big noises about the need for major reforms in the Iranian system (see yesterday's updates).

Motahari has now restated his case in Khabar Online, calling on First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi --- who, far from coincidentally, has been pressed by MPs over corruption allegations --- to answer the claims of Government mismanagement of the post-election crisis.

0855 GMT: Brazil Denies Role in Uranium Talks. It may be just for public show --- a mediator doesn't necessarily want to be known as a mediator --- but Brazilian officials have popped Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's declaration that Brasilia is acting as a broker for a possible deal on Iran's uranium enrichment:

A Brazilian foreign ministry spokesman told AFP [Agence France Presse] that no such plan had been proposed during a visit to Tehran last month by Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim.

"We were informed that an official Iranian government website mentioned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad supported a Brazilian 'program'. But there was no presentation of a formal program during the foreign minister's visit," the spokesman said.

Even more interesting, however, is the confusion demonstrated by the denial from Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai that Brazil was acting as a go-between. Since the original report of Brazil's involvement came from the President's office, one has the sense that Ahmadinejad's advisors aren't quite sure what they are supposed to be saying.

0840 GMT: Fantastic Interviews. Proof that, if you put the President and his advisors under pressure, you get answers that verge on fantasy.

In a separate entry, we've posted Ahmadinejad's declaration to The Boston Globe, "I'm in Favour of Protestors". Then there is the commentfrom Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, in conversation with Laura Secor of The New Yorker that "there are actually not too many people in the prisons" before he proceeds to tie himself up in illogical knots.

0630 GMT: We've started the morning by dealing in a separate feature with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's US Nuclear Roadshow: "Will it get him enough political space to bolster Iran’s position abroad and his authority at home?"

Now to the important matters:

Head of Judiciary is Not Happy

If the regime is feeling secure about its suppression of post-election opposition, Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, sure isn't showing it.

Speaking to clergy in Hamadan, Larijani declared that some of the confidants of Ayatollah Khomeini have acted even worse than the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, the political wing of the "terrorist" Mojahedin-e-Khalq.

Larijani added that the “seditious movement” has not ended, and it has caused confusion amongst the “pious”.

The Resurgence of the Labour Movement

Iran Labor Report has a powerful analysis/polemic of the state of the labour movement --- past, present, and future. The article concludes:

Fortunately, some in the labor movement have belatedly come to change their anti-Green approach somewhat, and this is welcome. Clearly, only with Green-labor unity can we stand up to the tyranny of the regime and free the country of its despotic rule. The popular struggle in Iran isn’t going away. The street demonstrations may have dwindled – for now – but a luta continua. Which side are you on?

Shutting Away Ayatollah Beheshti

Rah-e-Sabz claims that the organisers of the Tehran Book Fair removed the booth devoted to the works of the late Ayatollah Mohammad Beheshti.

Beheshti is one of the heroes of the Islamic Revolution. leading the new Iranian judicial system until he was killed in the mass 7 Tir assassination by the Mojahedin-e-Khalq in June 1981. However, his son, Alireza Beheshti, was Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor during and after the Presidential election, possibly putting the Beheshti name beyond the acceptable for the regime.

Another UK Deportation Case

The deportation of Bita Ghaedi from Britain was postponed by British and European courts on Tuesday, but another case reaches a critical point today.

Nadia Arzane and Bashir Foris, a married couple in their early 20s, are scheduled for forced removal on a Thursday afternoon flight from London Gatwick. Arzane is a Christian human rights activist who participated in protests in Iran in July; her father was allegedly detained and tortured for two months by Iranian authorities.