The Latest from Iran (30 May): Pressure, Counter-Pressure, & a Letter from Majid Tavakoli

1800 GMT: Academic Corner. HRANA reports that 15 students at Shahid Beheshti University have been suspended for criticism of the Supreme Leader.

1755 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The sentence of Zia Nabavi, a member of the Right to Education Council, has been reduced to 10 years from 15 years on appeal.

1750 GMT: Economy Watch. Reformist member of Parliament Darius Ghanbari has warned that if disinvestment, excessive imports and loss of domestic production continue, Iran will have 60 million (out of a population of 75+ million) below the poverty line. MP Nasrullah Torabi has called on the Government to be "accountable" to the 40 million he says are already below that line.

NEW Iran Report: The Fight on the Cultural Front (Erdbrink)
Iran Document: Mousavi “Greens Will Not be Stopped by Arrests, Prisons, or Killing”
Iran: A Poem for Executed Teacher Farzad Kamangar
The Latest from Iran (29 May): Statements for 22 Khordad/12 June

1745 GMT: A Clerical Slapdown. Ayatollah Amini, the leader of Friday Prayers in Qom, asked yesterday, "How is it possible to administer for the underprivileged with temporary relief?"

Amini leveled the allegation at the Government that Ayatollah Khomeini's ideas were not considered by persons in charge. Noting that other underdeveloped countries have managed to overcome their difficulties within 30 years. he said an adequate plan should have been established to create work, to develop the cities, and to support universities.


1735 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch --- Inside Version (cont.). Human Rights Activists News Agency carries a story on the alleged aftermath of two videos, released by the agency earlier this week, with accounts of torture and rape by detainees who were in Rajaiee Shahr Prison.

On Saturday, two agents from the Intelligence Ministry transferred twenty prisoners to the Security Office in Rajaiee Shahr prison where they were interrogated and threatened. They also moved Mohsen Beikvand, the victim in one of the videos, to solitary confinement. Unknown men reportedly contacted Bahram Tasviri, the other victim from the videos, and told him that his image and reputation have been shattered outside of prison with the publication of these videos.

(Note: we have not posted the video, which is available in the HRANA story, because we feel it is vital to confirm the authenticity of the story given the serious allegations. Feedback from those who view the video is welcomed.)

1730 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch --- Inside Version. We return from a break to find a purported account of conditions at Evin Prison from detained journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad. The account includes Nourizad's meeting last week with Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi, who allegedly promised Nourizad's release if the political prisoner and his family gave no statements to the media.

Nourizad, in the letter to the Supreme Leader, calls Evin "the second Kahrizak", a reference to the notorious facility that was closed by Ayatollah Khamenei after revelations of abuses and killings of detainees.

0855 GMT: Earthquake Alarm! Khabar Online reports that women have been seen taking off their hijab, allegedly for sporting activities, in several parks and public spaces in Tehran.

0850 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Bahram Chagini, a university student and a member of the Mousavi presidential campaign, was reportedly arrested by intelligence agents in Arak in mid-May.

0840 GMT: Another Political Prisoner List. Rah-e-Sabz has published another set of names and details of 100 political prisoners in Block 350 of Evin Prison. About 70% are students.

There is one additional name of a journalist, Khashayar Jahanzad Farrokhi, to add to our running total. We estimate that 93 journalists remain in detention or are under threat of heavy bails.

0835 GMT: And Another Cleric is Summoned. Rah-e-Sabz reports that Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, has been summoned to and interrogated in a special clerical court.

0830 GMT: Cleric Responds to "Lies". Ayatollah Sane'i has expressed his regret, "Five years ago I said lies were spreading, but I didn't know they were to become a culture."

0820 GMT: Reformist Responds to "Lies". We reported on Friday about  Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting's distortion of the words of reformist activist Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, turning her into a traitor declaring, "Do not accept Iran."

Haghighatjoo has now threatened to file a lawsuit against IRIB and the Supreme Leader, as the head of the broadcaster. She explained that the Green Movement, with its initial slogan "Where is My Vote?", did not want regime change; however, after killings and imprisonments, many doubted that reforms could occur within the system. Haghighatjoo concluded, "I believe that the Constitution must be replaced by a secular system."

0815 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Hashemi Rafsanjani's daughter Faezeh Hasemi has responded to the attack on her office with an unsubtle swipe at the Government. This was not carried by common thieves; it was like a "Mongols attack" to incite terror.

0805 GMT: Parliamentary Moves. Following this week's election of leaders in Parliament, with one Deputy Speaker (Sadr) seen as pro-Ahmadinejad and another (Bahonar) criticised by "hardliners" --- Speaker Ali Larijani and his allies are pushing the line of "Parliamentary unity".

Larijani, quoted by his supporting website Khabar Online, declared that political divisions are not compatible with the Supreme Leader's ideas. Elyas Naderan, a leading critic of the Ahmadinejad Government, predicted that the "political alignment" of pro-goverment and anti-government factions will not persist.

Not all proceeded smoothly for Larijani's move, however: his press conference started 20 minutes late, suffered a blackout, and was suddenly cut off.

0800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The scholars of the Middle East Studies Association have written to the Supreme Leader, calling for the release of Majid Tavakoli (see 0645 GMT) and other political prisoners.

0700 GMT: The Cultural Front. We have posted, in a separate entry, a report from  Thomas Erdbrink, the Washington Post correspondent in Tehran, on cultural resistance to the Iranian regime.

0645 GMT: A Letter from Tavakoli? There was a lot of chatter yesterday about a purported message from Majid Tavakoli, the detained student leader.

The letter has not been translated into English, but an EA reader wanted to get a sense of Tavakoli's analysis and objectives. So, over to EA correspondent Ms Zahra:

Tavakoli's statement reads like a mix of [prominent Iranian expatriate opposition figure] Mohsen Sazegara's daily lessons about non-violent struggle, parts of Mousavi's statements (esteqamat, perseverance), and expatriate demands for an end to the Islamic Republic.

As I never heard more than short statements by him, no idea if he is the author. If it is not by him, it could be a collective text, written by a reformist theoretician in prison --- I doubt this, however, because in my opinion reformists would never give up the Islamic Republic. It could also be the result of discussions in prison about future strategies for the Green Movement. In any case the phrasing is coherent, i.e., written by a single person.

An excellent text, insisting on the positiveness of the leaders, necessity of positive criticism, unity, fundamental demands like individual freedom and pluralism (to prevent a new dictatorship), clearly defined goals, and strategies of non-violence, along the lines of those set out by the scholar Gene Sharp.

It could also be an implicit reminder to Mousavi and Karroubi to be more definitive in their demands, but it is only advice and does not condemn them.

0630 GMT: We return from a Saturday night break to assess this morning's political situation, five days before the anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Khomeini and less than two weeks before the birthday of the 2009 election.

The regime made a big political move with the announcement that the Supreme Leader, introduced by President Ahmadinejad, will lead Tehran Friday Prayers from Khomeini's mausoleum. Can't be much clearer than this in a bid for legitimacy.

It's the first major regime rally since 22 Bahman (11 February), with Ayatollah Khamenei speaking at Friday Prayers for the first time since 19 June, when he reaffirmed Ahmadinejad's victory, warned the opposition not to challenge, and tried to keep Hashemi Rafsanjani in the fold.

So what were those various actors doing yesterday? Well, opposition figure Mir Hossein Mousavi had made another challenge with his statement to former political prisoners (again, can't get much more pointed in the symbolism than talking with those who had been unjustly detained under the Shah), and reformist groups and activists --- despite the Government's attempt to silence them --- continued to put out declarations of intent before 12 June.

Even more interesting,  however, were the manoeuvres around Rafsanjani. The former President's website issued its own response to the Government by re-issuing Rafsanjani's criticisms of President Ahmadinejad and the Iranian system, both in a letter to the Supreme Leader before the election and in Rafsanjani's 17 July Friday Prayer address (the last time he took the podium).

But the regime was putting out its own message for Rafsanjani this weekend: the office of his daughter Faezeh Hashemi was raided, soon after security forces moved upon the campus of Islamic Azad University --- established by the Rafsanjani Government and led until recently by Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi --- and seized computers and documents.

What does it all mean? Well, at this point I'll take the easy way out: too soon to tell....

The Latest from Iran (23 May): Is This The People's Month?

1820 GMT: Joined-Up Government? Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, Iran's representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Sunday that Iran had not yet delivered a letter outlining the procedure for the uranium swap agreed last week with Brazil and Turkey.

Islamic Republic News Agency reported earlier Sunday that the letter had been delivered (see 1515 GMT). Iranian officials now say it will be submitted on Monday.

1815 GMT: Claimed video of a clashes between protesters and government forces today at Elm-o-Sanat University:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFHYQj8LSZE[/youtube]

NEW Iran Document: Khatami “Khordaad is the Month of the People”(22 May)
Iran Nuke Analysis: Reading the US-Turkey Discussions
The Latest from Iran (22 May): Karroubi’s Letter, University Protests

1810 GMT: Resistance. Seven opposition websites have issued a joint statement that they will “resist and persevere” in their mission of informing the public until the fall of “despotism” and the moment of “victory”.


Emrooz (Today), Tahavole Sabz (Green Evolution), Jaras/Rah-e-Sabz (Path of the Green Movement), Neday-e Sabz-e Azadi (The Green Voice of Freedom), Raymankojast (Where’s My Vote?), Mizan, and Saham News declared that that “resistance, defending the rights of the citizens, unity and avoidance of all forms of violence” are the pillars of their media activities. They urged the public to contact them with suggestions about “disseminating information” and to “resist and persist in their legal demands to restore the lost principles of the constitution.”

1800 GMT: Nourizad Still Imprisoned? An Iranian activist notifies us that Mohammad Nourizad's daughter has denied the report that he has been released from prison (see 1520 GMT). Pro-Government websites are still carrying the news.

1520 GMT:  Political Prisoner News. Tabnak is reporting from Khabar Online that filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad has been released from prison. The article also denied Nourizad's claim that he was beaten by guards last week.

1515 GMT: The Uranium Dispute. The Islamic Republic News Agency reports that Iran has officially handed a letter to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, setting out the terms for a swap of uranium, based on last week's joint declaration by Iran, Brazil and Turkey.

1510 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz is reporting, from "sources", that film director Jafar Panahi will be freed this evening from Evin Prison.

Iranian activists are writing that student leader Majid Tavakoli has been moved back to solitary confinement.

1230 GMT: Election Manipulation? Further information on the claim (0740 GMT) that entire villages were "resurrected" --- 60 around Tabriz alone --- to provide votes for President Ahmadinejad in the 2009 election: context and details can be found in Ayande News, Tabnak, and other citations in the Green Voice of Freedom article.

1220 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Press TV, drawing from Iranian Students News Agency, writes:

The Chairman of Iran's Expediency Council, Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, described the Islamic Republic as "determined" to defend its rights and in particular its nuclear rights on the international stage: "Iran will not give up its rights in the face of such psychological warfare, threats, and intimidation."...

According to the senior Iranian official, the region and the world will pay a heavy price if "hostile and unethical ways" are adopted to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue.

ISNA highlights Rafsanjani's remarks about the 28th anniversary of the Iranian defence of Khorramshahr against Iraqi attack. No word, however, about his views on internal matters.

1010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iranian Azeri activist Behboud Gholizade, the head of the NGO Yashil, has been arrested.

1000 GMT: Mousavi and Karroubi Meet. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, reports that Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have had a new discussion today. "Further news" is promised later.

0830 GMT: Corruption Corner. Fazel Mousavi of Parliament's Article 90 Commission, has asserted that files  alleging corruption against senior government figures are being investigated.

0825 GMT: Economy Watch. Gholamreza Mesbahi Moghaddam, a leading member of Parliament's Economy Committee, has again urged the Goverernment to declare details of its subsidy cut plans, warning that otherwise there will be negative economic effects.

0815 GMT: Labour Front. Iran Labor Report sets out the regime crackdown on the Tehran and Municipality Bus Workers Labor Syndicate, with detentions, firings, and disciplinary action.

0810 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Writing for Tehran Bureau, "Hana H." has a lengthy profile of Mehdi Hashemi, Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, and the pressure upon him and his family.

Hashemi is living in Britain and has been threatened with criminal prosecution if he returns to Iran.

0745 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kurdish activist Mohieddin Azadi, detained since March 2008, is reportedly on hunger strike.

85 Iranian filmmakers have urged the judiciary to release detained director Jafar Panahi.

0740 GMT: Remembering the Election (Manipulation)? Green Voice of Freedom claims a new fact from the 2009 Presidential vote for consideraiton: dozens of villages which were recorded in 1976 but had ceased to exist by 2007 suddenly appeared for last year's ballot. The website cites the example of 60 "resurrected" villages around Tabriz.

0735 GMT: Show of Force. Rah-e-Sabz reports heavy security in Khorramshahr in southwestern Iran on the eve of a visit by President Ahmadinejad.

Rooz Online claims two million Basiji militia have been mobilised for 22 Khordaad (12 June).

0715 GMT: Yesterday we began with a defiant statement from Mehdi Karroubi. Today we start with a gentler but pointed call by former President Mohammad Khatami for the Iranian people, leading up to the 12 June anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election, to claim their rights and for the Government to respect that claim. The text is in a separate entry.

Meanwhile....

Government Spin: Look Away. Far Away....

More emphasis by President Ahmadinejad and his men on events beyond Iran. On Saturday Ahmadinejad spoke with Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey, who helped broker last week's agreement on a procedure for Tehran's uranium enrichment. Press TV gives the public line:

Iran's nuclear declaration is the beginning of a new era in the international political arena and offers a great opportunity for interaction and dialogue. Tehran is to create a new atmosphere in international relations based on fair and constructive cooperation with its friend and brother countries.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, meeting UN special representative Staffan de Mistura, settled for calling the US the main perpetrator of radicalism in Afghanistan.

New Green Website

Sabzlink, a new "portal" offering readers the latest in Iran news, has gone on-line.

The Latest from Iran (19 May): Fallout

2035 GMT: The Uranium Sideshow. President Obama issued a boiler-plate, stay-the-course statement at a press conference alongside President Felipe Calderon of Mexico (which happens to have a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council):

"[We agree] on the need for Iran to uphold its international obligations or face increased sanctions and pressure, including UN sanctions. And I'm pleased that we've reached an agreement with our P5-plus-1 partners on a strong resolution that we now have shared with our Security Council partners.

Obama did not mention, for he was not asked, why he had encouraged Turkey to pursue talks with Iran leading to the uranium swap agreement in Tehran on Monday.

1845 GMT:Political Prisoner Watch. Housewife Masoumeh Yavari has been given a seven-year jail term at Rajai-Shahr Prison in Karaj. Yavari had been accused of "mohareb" (war against God), and the prosecutor had asked for the death penalty.

Zahra Jabbari, married and the mother of one child, has been sentenced to 4 years in prison. Jabbari was arrested during Qods Day protests on 18 September.

Student Activist Mohammad Yousef Rashidi has been handed a one-year jail term.

NEW Iran’s Uranium: Why Can’t the US Take Yes for an Answer? (Parsi)
NEW Iran’s Uranium: Washington “Can’t Afford to Look Ridiculous”, Makes Ridiculous Move (Emery)
NEW Iran’s Uranium: US Shows a Middle Finger to Tehran…and Turkey and Brazil and… (Gary Sick)
NEW Iran Document: Iranian Labour Unions “This is Not 1979″
Iran Analysis: Washington and the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Parsi)
Iran Alert: Filmmaker Firouz Faces Deportation From UK
Iran Analysis: The Contest at Home Over (and Beyond) the Uranium Agreement (Zahra)
Iran Analysis: Assessing the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Gary Sick)
The Latest from Iran (18 May): Getting Beyond the Uranium Agreement

1700 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The Revolutionary Court in Tehran has sentenced student and women's rights activist Bahareh Hedayat to 9 ½ years in prison: six months for insulting the president, two years for insulting the Leader, five years for anti-state and anti-national security actions, and two years, previously suspended, for organizing a gathering in June 2006.


Milad Asadi, another senior member of the alumni organisation Advar-e Tahkim Vahdat, has been sentenced to 7 years in prison.

Bahareh Hedayat's statement for Iran's National Student Day in December 2009:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtUvxtH00Lc[/youtube]

1200 GMT: The Uranium Battle. Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's atomic energy agency, has issued the highest-level reaction to the US pursuit of a sanctions resolution at the United Nations, "They won't prevail and by pursuing the passing of a new resolution they are discrediting themselves in public opinion."

0940 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Masoud Heidari, the former head of the Iranian Labour News Agency,was released from prison on Tuesday. On Sunday, Heidari had begun serving a three-month prison sentence.

0840 GMT: Alice-in-Wonderland Media Statement of Day. I guess the editors of The New York Times have not paid any attention to the events of the last 72 hours:

Brazil and Turkey should join the other major players and vote for the Security Council resolution. Even before that, they should go back to Tehran and press the mullahs to make a credible compromise and begin serious negotiations.

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Tahereh Saeedi, the wife of detained film director Jafar Panahi, has told Rah-e-Sabz that her husband has been on hunger strike since Sunday.

Panahi has demanded access to his lawyer, visits by his family, and an unconditional release until a court hearing is held.

Six journalists and cultural activists --- Mahnaz Karimi, Hafez Sardarpour, Mehdi Zeynali, Nader Azizi, Mustafa Jamshidi, and Ramin Jabbari --- were arrested on Monday in Iranian Azerbaijan.

0820 GMT: Shutting Down the Inquiry. Parleman News writes that a reformist proposal to investigate Iran's prisons has been rejected by the Parliament. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani insists that the Majlis continues to observe prisons and has forwarded a report to the National Security Council.

0815 GMT: Claim of Day (No, It's Not about Uranium). Rah-e-Sabz claims new accusations of impropriety against Mohammad Javad Larijani, a high-ranking official in the judiciary. The website asserts that a deal has been struck: Ahmadinejad will not press a corruption case against Larijani, while the official and his powerful brothers will drop charges against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

0810 GMT: And There's Always a "Terrorism" Story. Press TV features a summary of its interview with Abdolmalek Rigi, the captured leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah: "While in Morocco, suspected Israeli or US agents had given him a list of people to assassinate in Tehran."

0755 GMT: Evaluating the Uranium/Sanctions Story. We have three analyses of the US response to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement: Trita Parsi asks why Washington cannot take Yes for an answer, Chris Emery suggests it is because the US feels it "cannot afford to look  ridiculous", and Gary Sick thinks Washington just showed the middle finger not only to Tehran but to Turkey, Brazil, and a lot of other countries.

The Washington Post has posted a copy of the sanctions resolution introduced by the US into the United Nations Security Council.

0635 GMT: Nuclear Spin of Day. Peyke Iran tries an different angle to attack the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement. The website claims that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip is angry about his reception in Tehran: he and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva were offered an Iranian breakfast of sangak bread, Bulgarian white cheese, walnuts, and inferior dried fruit.

0630 GMT: Mousavi's Bodyguard. More manoeuvring over Monday's arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi's head of security, Ahmad Yazdanfar. Khabar Online claims that Yazdanfar "withdrew" from his position, and the story that he was detained is a fiction of the "leaders of sedition" and foreign media.

Opposition outlets have responded that Yazdanfar is not "political" at all but a simple security officer. Through his arrest and the kidnapping, terror, and torture of others, the Government is slowly becoming a terrorist group.

0615 GMT: Iran's Debate on the Tehran Deal. The Government is still facing some opposition to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement. From the conservative wing, Ahmad Tavakoli (and possibly, through indirect means, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani) made challenges on Tuesday. On the reformist side, Darius Ghanbari asked why Iran had waited seven months and expended so much capital in its foreign policy, only to move towards an agreement it could have had in October.

The response of pro-Government politicians is that this is only a "declaration", not a "treaty", so Tehran has not entered any binding commitments. Or, as Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said, "If the Vienna Group (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) accepts Iran’s terms and conditions...both parties commit themselves to the implementation” of the deal."

(Which means that Washington's response --- throwing out any consideration of the agreement in favour of a sanctions-first approach --- has sheltered the Ahmadinejad Government against its internal opponents.)

0530 GMT: For many observers, the nuclear sideshow will remain the main event today. The Obama Administration pretty much guaranteed that when, despite the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on a procedure for a uranium enrichment deal (and despite the small fact that President Obama appears to have encouraged the Turks to pursue the deal --- more on that later), Secretary of State Hillary Clinton loudly and not very politely announced that the US was proceeding with a sanctions resolution in the United Nations.

The resolution was submitted in the late afternoon, so now we will be treated to a lot of posturing on all sides, possibly obscuring this bottom-line assessment, courtesy of the National Iranian American Council: "This is an unbelievably stupid move on the part of the Obama administration. Not only are we rejecting our own terms of the agreement, but we are doing so in as tactless and diplomatically insulting way possible."

Meanwhile, on the centre stage of Iranian politics....

Containing Mousavi

Muhammad Sahimi offers a concise summary of the latest steps by the Government to intimidate Mir Hossein Mousavi ahead of the election anniversary on 12 June, including the arrest of Mousavi's top bodyguard.

The Labour Front

We have posted, in a separate entry, the statement of the Network of Iranian Labor Unions setting out its view of opposition to the Government, "This is Not 1979".

Iran Labor Report posts an overview of recent workers' protests.

The Latest from Iran (17 May): Let's Make a Deal (But Not with You, Mousavi)

2120 GMT: We close tonight with an analysis by Gary Sick, posted in a separate entry, of today's Tehran agreement on uranium enrichment.

2045 GMT:Political Prisoner Watch. Literary critic Abbas Khalili Dermaneh (also known as Khalil Dermaneki) has been released after almost five months in detention. Dermaneh was arrested during the Ashura demonstrations on 27 December.

Ahmad Yazdanfar, the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's security detail, has been arrested.

NEW Iran Analysis: Assessing the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Gary Sick)
NEW Iran Document: Text of Iran-Brazil-Turkey Agreement on Uranium Enrichment
NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “The Islamic Republic Depends Upon the People”
NEW Iran Document: The Prosecutor on the Executions, “Leaders of Sedition” (15 May)
NEW Iran Urgent: The Deal on Uranium Enrichment
Iran Blackout: Shutting Down the Movies
The Latest from Iran (16 May): Intimidation After the Executions

1800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Writer and children's rights activist Reza Khandan was released last Wednesday. Peyke Iran claims that that international pressure contributed to the decision to free him.


1440 GMT: Karroubi's "Islamic Republic Depends on the People". We have posted the English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's latest rallying call for the Iranian people to defend the Republic.

1415 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amir Kabir University student Mohammad Yousefi has been released after six months in detention.

1150 GMT: More "It's Still War!" MediaFail (see 1024 GMT). It's one thing for The New York Times to package this morning's Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal as, first and foremost, a complication for sanctions. Even if their "experts" are doing no more than speculating --- "The terms mirror a deal with the West last October which fell apart when Iran backtracked. This time, however, those same terms may be unacceptable to Washington and its partners because Iran has since increased its supply of nuclear fuel" --- at least there is the guise of analysis rather than Government spin.

Reuters, however, has no excuse. The agency ran the scare story last Friday from "Western diplomats" that Iran must be preparing for militarised nuclear capability because it was enriching uranium to 20 percent, rather than sending it abroad. So what happens when Iran does agree to send the uranium abroad?

Well, Reuters calls "Western diplomats" --- possibly the same ones who fed them their Friday article --- to get quotes:

"If they refuse to stop enriching to 20 percent and make this proposal for fuel, then why are they continuing the higher enrichment [with their own centrifuges]? There is no other peaceful justification," a Western diplomat said. [NOTE: The "peaceful justification" is that Iran may not get enriched uranium for up to a year, even if this morning's deal goes through with the US and other powers.]

"This would be a deal-breaker," another said.

1120 GMT: Nuclear Question of the Day/Week/Month. We're continuing special updates in a separate entry on today's Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal on uranium enrichment, and we have posted a copy of the agreement.

An EA correspondent, meanwhile, asks the key question about Iranian politics. We all know that President Ahmadinejad, seeking legitimacy, has pursued an agreement since last summer, but "why are the Supreme Leader and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who opposed last October's deal, now supporting it?"

1030 GMT: Academic Corner. Four students from Elm-o-Sanat University in Tehran have been expelled for political opposition.

1024 GMT: CNN on Iran Nuclear Deal "It's Still War!" A hopeless display of journalism from CNN this morning....

Instead of trying to get to grips with the possible significance of the deal announced by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey, CNN's website goes back to the older scare story --- circulated by "Western diplomats" on Friday --- of Iran putting in a second cascade of centrifuges to provide 20-percent enriched uranium for its Tehran Research Reactor, producer of medical isotopes (see Saturday's updates).

True, Foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told the Islamic Republic News Agency this morning that Iran would continue this process but --- since arrangements for a swap of Iran's 3.5-percent uranium for 20-percent uranium in Turkey may not be completed until mid-2011 --- that would seem a logical step to keep the TRR going.

So here's CNN gambit: "20-percent enriched uranium is the threshold for uranium capable of setting off a nuclear reaction. And Western leaders have alleged that Iran is trying to create nuclear weapons under the guise of a civilian energy program."

Umm... "Threshold for a nuclear reaction". Not threshold for even a single bomb, which is more than 90 percent.
0750 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi, meeting academics, doctors, nurses, and families of martyrs, has asserted that the Islamic Republic was only born through people's votes; therefore, the Republic derives its meaning from the people.

0730 GMT: The Nuclear Deal. We will be providing updates on today's agreement between Brazil, Turkey, and Iran in a separate entry.

Meanwhile, the key (and probably unasked) question on the internal dimension: what legitimacy will the Ahmadinejad Government claim (and what legitimacy will it obtain) from the agreement? Not sure if anyone has noticed, but there seems to be an anniversary coming up on 12 June....

0720 GMT: Intimidation. Following the public threat to Mir Hossein Mousavi from the Tehran Prosecutor General and the letter by 175 members of Parliament calling for prosecution of Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi (see yesterday's updates),  Khabar Online offers a timeline of the warnings to Mousavi and Karroubi.

0620 GMT: We open this morning with updates on two important stories.

Media inside and outside Iran will likely be focused on news of agreement between Iran, Brazil, and Turkey on a procedure for a deal on enrichment of Tehran's uranium. We've got the latest developments and what to watch for today.

Inside Iran, however, the political story is the continued effort by the Government to defend the executions, now more than a week old, of 5 Iranians. We have a transcript of Saturday's lengthy statement by Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi justifying the hangings.



However, just as significant in the statement --- despite Dowlatabadi's extended denial that the timing of the executions has any political significance --- is his high-profile warning to Mir Hossein Mousavi. The Tehran Prosecutor's references to Mousavi's position as Prime Minister in the 1980s, during a period when many Iranians were executed, should not be missed: you supported them then, so why trumpet public opposition now?

Then there is Dowlatabadi's pointed declaration to the "leaders of sedition": we've seen you denounce this execution of rightfully-condemned terrorists, we've noted it, and we will add it to the list of charges against you.

Absolutely no connection to the 12 June anniversary of the Presidential election, with the possibility of opposition demonstrations, whatsoever.

The Latest from Iran (15 May): Executions, Detentions and a Cancellation

1900 GMT: Punishing Panahi. Rah-e-Sabz reports that, as punishment for the publication of his letter to the organisers of the Cannes Film Festival (see yesterday's updates), detained film director Jafar Panahi's stay in "temporary prison" has been extended by two months.

1820 GMT: The Nuclear Non-Story (clarification). Borzou Daragahi pulls us up on our criticism of his Los Angeles Times article on Iran's nuclear programme, a day after a Reuters story over "a move which shows Tehran seeking to enhance its atomic work" (0800 GMT):

NEW Iran: Last Words of Executed Alamhouli “For God’s Sake, Let Me Hear My Mother’s Voice” (Ghazi)
Iran Analysis: The Economic Squeeze and the Real Sanctions Story (Colvin)
UPDATED Iran Special: Executions, Politics, and the Attack on Nazila Fathi and The New York Times
The Latest from Iran (15 May): Executions, Detentions and a Cancellation

"The story published today did not refer to the new-generation centrifuges that Ahmadinejad has already trumpeted numerous times. It referred to the addition of an additional cascade of (presumably old-fashioned) centrifuges placed inside the 20% enrichment hall. This is something that had not been previously reported."

My apology that I missed this distinction, which was made in the Reuters report. The Los Angeles Times article, however, does not make the distinction clear, saying only, "Iran has expanded the number of machines producing medical reactor-grade uranium."

But here's the key point: even if we note that Reuters is referring to an additional cascade of older centrifuges, there is no dramatic "nuclear threat" story here, irrespective of the whispers of unnamed Western diplomats. From the Reuters article:

Iran has been using one set or "cascade" of 164 centrifuge machines to refine small amounts of uranium to up to 20 percent purity, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency's last report in February.

But a system using just one cascade is inefficient, analysts said, as it produces a large proportion of leftover low-enriched uranium (LEU) alongside the sought-after highly enriched material.

In recent weeks Iranian officials have been adding a second cascade at the Natanz pilot plant to allow the leftover material to be re-fed into the machines more easily, obtaining its full potential and making the work more efficient, diplomats said.

"The second cascade is aimed at supporting the work of the first," a Western diplomat said....

The changes do not appear be aimed at increasing the amounts produced or to raise the enrichment level further, moves which would ring alarm bells, diplomats said. But they said the second cascade could be reconfigured to do this should Iran decide to.

So in other words, Iran --- suffering a shortage of 20% enriched uranium to keep its medical research reactor operational --- is taking the logical step of trying to produce more stock by adding the second cascade. The jump to a higher enrichment for military use exists only in the speculation of the Western diplomats.

1655 GMT: Prisoner Swap? Earlier today we reported that French graduate student Clotilde Reiss, arrested in July and confined on bail to the French Embassy in Iran since August, will be able to leave Iran after paying a $285,000 fine.

Radio Farda raises another possible reason for the decision to let Reiss go. It notes that Majid Kakavand, an Iranian detained in France on accusations he purchased technology over the Internet to sell to Iran's military, was not extradited to the US and is now back in Iran.

1650 GMT: The Hijab Issue. Ayatollah Mohammad Hossein Fazlollah has pronounced that wearing of hijab is not an area for the governbment but is a personal issue. Now, as Fazlollah is Lebanese, that may not be earth-shattering: what goes in Beirut may not apply in Tehran.

The location of the interview, however, does raise an eyebrow: it is the "conservative" Khabar Online.

1640 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Parleman News reports that members of Parliament --- almost 1/5 of the Majlis --- have asked Minister of Oil Masoud Mirkazemi about problems in his area. Mirkazemi's answers were not accepted last time;if they are turned down three times, he may be impeached.

1635 GMT: Economy Watch. Mus al-Reza Servati, a member of Parliament's Planning and Budget Commission, has complained that --- two months into the Iranian year --- the government's budget has not been passed to its administration.

1620 GMT:Today's Death Sentences and More. Agence France Presse has summarised the sentences announced by Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi and his office:

*Death sentences for six protestors have been confirmed.

Three of those sentenced to die --- Mohammad Ali Saremi, Jafar Kazemi, and Mohammad-Ali Haj-Aghai --- were arrested in September. Three --- Ahmad Daneshpour Moghadam, Mohsen Daneshpour Moghadam and Alireza Ghanbari --- were arrested on Ashura (27 December). All six are accused of belonging to the People's Mujahideen Organisation of Iran, the political wing of the "terrorist" Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MKO). the opposition group the Islamic republic's regime calls "the hypocrites."

*Three other people arrested on Ashura --- Motahare Bahrami Haqiqi, Reyhane Haj Ebrahim, and Hadi Qaemi --- have been sentenced to jail after an appeal court overturned their death sentences.

*A death sentence against student Mohammad Amin Valian has been reduced to three-and-a-half years by an appeal court.

*Azar Mansouri, a senior leader of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been given a three-year prison term in an appeal court. Reformist journalist Masoud Bastani has been sentenced to six years.

1610 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Moment. You might think that the cancellation by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of his trip to Iran (see 0545 GMT) would have put a dent in Iran's rhetoric over a possible deal on uranium enrichment.

Nope, not if you're Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast: "It would have been better for Erdogan if he could have been physically in Tehran but in the era of communications, there are other ways to stay in touch."

Mehmanparast played up the not-cancelled visit of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva: "Concerning the negotiations, I believe the conditions are conducive to reach a serious agreement over the swap deal."

1600 GMT: Mousavi Watch. Make of this what you will: the public statements of Mir Hossein Mousavi appear to have increased in frequency and intensity recently.

Meeting with teachers and clerics of seminaries for the anniversary of the martyrdom of Fatemeh, daughter of Prophet Mohammad, Mousavi said: “If a system claims to be Islamic....[it] should truly pay attention to the way [Prophet Mohammad] treat people and make that their role model.” Mousavi continued:

Now the question of the people is whether the path taken by those in power, who claim to be Muslim and followers of Islam but then lie, has any compatibility with the path of Fatemeh (peace be upon her), whose title Sadigheh means honestly and staying away from wrongdoings and slightest lies....Would the prophet [Mohammad] that we know ever have made such prisons in the territory of Islamic and religious state?

Mousavi then linked the Green Movement to the virtues of the Prophet Mohammad and his family:

Some people gave us the idea of choosing the colour Green in one of the campaign trips Ms. Rahnavard and I had to the holy city of Mashahd, with religious intentions. Therefore this shows the link of this movement to the verdure, beauty and spirituality of our religion and the family of the prophet Mohammad; we considered this as a good sign and, because of the respect of the people for the family of Prophet Mohammad, this colour and Green Wave have become so popular among the people....

The Green Movement has roots in our religious thoughts and as long as the Green Movement is in this path the people of our country support it.

1240 GMT: Damocles' Sword for 12 June. In Khabar Online's account of today's interview with Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi (see 0950 GMT), there is a clear warning for Mir Hossein Mousavi. Dowlatabadi says that his office continues to collect evidence on Mousavi, in anticipation of a prosecution if Mousavi does not curb his opposition.

1130 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. As EA readers note in comments below, Clotilde Reiss, the French graduate student, arrested in July for participation in demonstrations, will be allowed to leave Iran upon the payment of $285,000.

Reiss' lawyer Mohammad Ali Mahdavi Sabet said, "There has been a court verdict which is not an acquittal but will enable her to leave the country."

Reiss was released on bail in August and confined to the French Embassy.

0950 GMT: Death Sentences. An Iranian activist reports that the Iranian judiciary has ruled on death sentences for 10 political prisoners, detained over the Ashura demonstrations, for "mohareb" (war against God): three were overturned, three upheld, two charges were dropped, and two cases are pending.

Meanwhile, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi has attempted again to defend Sunday's execution of five Iranians, four of them Kurdish. Dowlatabadi's interview with Fars News follows that newspaper's publication of the "official" report on the case from Dowlatabadi's office (see the critique in Thursday's updates).

0825 GMT: Non-Story (cont.). We're watching to see if this dramatic non-news makes it into general circulation, "US Space Planes 'Worry Iran'".

0800 GMT: Non-Story of the Day? We noticed the breathless report from Reuters yesterday:

Iran has been setting up extra equipment which could improve the way it enriches uranium to higher levels, diplomats said, a move which shows Tehran seeking to enhance its atomic work as big powers discuss new sanctions.

Iran first started enriching small amounts of uranium to higher levels in February, saying it wanted to make fuel for a medical research reactor. This raised Western suspicion as Iran is seen to lack the ability to make the fuel assemblies needed.

I did not mention this in updates, as I hoped this pretence at an exclusive would just go away. Unfortunately, the Los Angeles Times has not been so judicious:

Iran has expanded the number of machines producing medical reactor-grade uranium, an incremental step that could increase its ability to produce the highly refined material necessary to build a nuclear bomb, said two diplomats in Vienna, home of the U.N. atomic watchdog agency.

The disclosure, first revealed by news agencies Friday, ups pressure on diplomats struggling to find a resolution of the confrontation between Tehran and the United States, Israel and their European allies over the nuclear program.

Beyond the standard ritual of using unnamed sources as the basis for sweeping claims, the story is not very new: a named, non-Western source --- a Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad --- declared Iran's plans to construct a new generation of centrifuges. These would produce the 20-percent uranium needed for the Tehran medical reactor.

Of course, what is distinctive about Reuters' story is not the content but the timing: it comes out in the context of chatter and pressure, both in response to Ahmadinejad's own move in New York at the United Nations Nuclear Non-Proliferation Conference and as part of a publicly-renewed effort for tougher sanctions on Iran.

0630 GMT: We have posted, in a separate entry, Fereshteh Ghazi's report on the last moments of Shirin Alamhouli during her sudden, unexpected execution. Ghazi concludes, "A regime such as this must live in fear. Even the dead haunt it."

0545 GMT: A purported letter from Saeed Massouri on death row in Gohardasht Prison:

In the midst of the country’s serious turmoil, I learnt of the execution of my late-found friends and acquaintances from prison with whom we spent years in the jail cells of Ward 209 [at Evin Prison].

Perhaps they [the regime] think that by executing them, they have managed to frighten us and our people. But shame on us if instead of being more motivated [to continue the struggle against the regime], the execution of our friends and countrymen and compatriots were to frighten us. Indeed, what is to be done at a time when people have no other fate but imprisonment, torture and execution simply for being human; and when this is the price to pay for the slightest attempt to be free and have humanity? Where do those who remain silent in the face of such crimes draw the line between being human or not?....

For my own part, I want to be clear on the degree of fear that these executions really instilled in me: I declare that after the hanging of these five, I am more than ready to be the sixth one to kiss the hangman's noose.

Long live their memory and that of all those whose blood runs through the veins of history.

“The frenzy of the flame subsides only as ashes/Such is what needs to be done to live honourably”

Our updates have been filled this week with a steady stream of new interrogations and arrests, including Kurdish teachers and activists following the execution of 5 Iranians almost a week ago. The latest news is that Kurdish author and civil rights activist Ali Mahomoodi, arrested on 27 September, has been sentenced to six years in prison without possibility of appeal.

On the international front, the significant but largely unnoticed news is that Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cancelled this week's trip to Iran. Tehran had been trumpeting the news that Erdogan's visit, coinciding with the arrival of Brazilian President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva, would be the occasion for an important round of talks for a uranium enrichment deal.

Erdogan told reporters on Friday, "It seems that a trip to Iran on Monday is no longer possible for me as Iran has not taken that step on the issue. If necessary my foreign minister may go, or I may go later." Erdoğan asked "for a statement of determination" from the Iranians.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev poured more cold water on the possibility of a breakthrough during Lula's attendance at a summit of non-aligned nations in Iran this week: "You want me to give the odds on President Lula. Okay. As my friend the Brazilian president is an optimist, I shall also be an optimist. I give 30 percent."

Lula, asked about his chances of success on a scale of one to 10, had replied, "I would give 9.9."

Iran has freed an Iraqi soldier captured during a border skirmish on Thursday.