Gaza LiveBlog: Israel Forces Attack Freedom Flotilla, Up to 19 Killed (31 May)

0755 GMT, 1 JUNE: Updates continue in our LiveBlog, "The Politics After the Attack", for Tuesday.

2330 GMT: The New York Times reports one administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity concerning the future of Israeli-Palestinian talks mediated by Senator George Mitchell. In terms of the divide between the Israeli Government and the Obama Administration, the official said: “We’re not sure yet where things go from here.”

Mitchell is still expected to attend the Palestine Investment Conference in the West Bank city of Bethlehem on Wednesday and Thursday.

2200 GMT: Vice Admiral Eliezer Marom, head of the Israeli Navy, instructs the troops intercepting the Gaza flotilla:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yphfyN0dqi8&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

Gaza Flotilla Video: Questions from Last Report Before Israeli Attack
Gaza Video: “If You’re Watching This, The Flotilla Has Been Attacked"

2110 GMT: The first result of the UNSC emergency meeting: Members urged Israel to lift its economic blockade of the Gaza Strip!

Assistant Secretary-General Oscar Fernandez-Taranco said the bloodshed would have been avoided if repeated calls on Israel to end the "counterproductive and unacceptable" blockade of Gaza had been heeded.

Most members of the 15-nation body joined the call for an investigation.

2030 GMT: IDF releases pictures of weapons found on the Mavi Marmara flotilla ship.

1930 GMT: The opposition leader Tzipi Livni gave an interview to the Turkish channel, TRT. She said that "there was a need to stop these ships" which were "not on a humanitarian mission".

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CkBt79S6M0&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

Gaza Flotilla Attack: Israel Line “We Are Sorry but It Was a Life-Threatening Situation!”

1915 GMT: Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu criticized Israel harshly at UNSC emergency meeting. Remarkably, he said:

This assault against 600 civilians from 32 countries can never be justified. We watched a live barbarian show.

Israel committed a crime. It is a crime committed by the state itself. Any state committing this crime will loose its legitimacy in the international arena.

The day when the line between terrorists and states blurred is today, a day leaving a bloody stain on the history of humanity.

1855 GMT: Speaking to Channel 10, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said:

Israel is a sovereign state and cannot accept the undermining of its sovereignty. Israel has stopped ships in international waters before and when ships refuse to accede to warnings and obey instructions, we have the right to board them under international law.

1845 GMT: Israeli President Shimon Peres, who was scheduled to meet with former US Secretary of State George Shultz on Monday, canceled his meeting. He said:

Israel is a democratic country with an obligation to defend its citizens and cannot condone the arrival of Gaza-destined goods and ships without inspecting them. The violent and provocative flotilla was backed by Hamas, whose support was that of terror and opposition to peace.

1830 GMT: IDF released a new statement:

The following is a summary of the number of injuries and casualties in today’s incident in which IDF naval forces were met with extremely violent resistance on board the Mavi Marmara.  According to the most recent reports, a total of seven soldiers were wounded – four soldiers were moderately wounded, of which two were initially in critical condition, as well as an additional three soldiers who were lightly wounded.  Among the violent activists, there were nine casualties as a result of the soldiers defending themselves.

It should be emphasized that both the State of Israel and the IDF made repeated calls to the flotilla, telling them that all goods and humanitarian aid could be transferred according to the secure and approved methods in place today, as is done on a near daily basis.  Unfortunately, this was not the case. IDF naval forces were met with premeditated violence, evident by the activists’ use of clubs, metal rods, and knives, as well as the firing of two weapons stolen from the soldiers, causing for defensive action on behalf of the forces who felt their lives were endangered.

1815 GMT: UN Security Council's emergency meeting started.

1730 GMT: The Mavi Marmara was docked at Ashdod. 500 activists on board will be arrested of deported.

1700 GMT: Finally, pictures of Mavi Marmara reached media after 15 hours. The ship is being escorted by Israeli Navy off the port of Ashdod.

1645 GMT: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he regretted deaths but also added that Israeli troops had right to self-defense.

1630 GMT: CNN correspondent Atia Abawi said: "Israeli government confirms that 25 activists are in stages of deportation and at least 50 are detained after not giving them identification".

1620 GMT: The details of the phone conversation between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Barack Obama were given by the White House:

This morning between 10:00 and 10:15 AM CDT, the President spoke by phone with Prime Minister Netanyahu. He said he understood the Prime Minister's decision to return immediately to Israel to deal with today's events. They agreed to reschedule their meeting at the first opportunity. The President expressed deep regret at the loss of life in today's incident, and concern for the wounded, many of whom are being treated in Israeli hospitals. The President also expressed the importance of learning all the facts and circumstances around this morning's tragic events as soon as possible.

1605 GMT: Turkish daily Hurriyet reported that NATO's spokesman James Appathurai had stated that the organisation would be gathered extraordinarily, at the request of Turkey.

NATO issued a very short statement earlier today: "NATO is deeply concerned about the loss of life in this incident. We look forward to a further establishment of the facts of what has happened."

1600 GMT: IDF said Defne Y, the 5th ship in Gaza flotilla, cleared of its crew - Mavi Marmara currently being brought into Ashdod Port.

1555 GMT: Al Jazeera English correspondent Sherine Tadros reports, "We're hearing 14 activists have agreed to be deported and on way home;50 taken to prison in southern Israel resisting deportation."

1550 GMT: Pictures of wounded activists were released. Plastic handcuffs during the transport of heavily wounded ones are noteworthy.

1548 GMT: The United Nations Security Council will meet on Monday afternoon for an emergency session that will start at 1 P.M., New York time.

1545 GMT: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in Chile: "This is a state terrorism."

1515 GMT: While on his way to Washington, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said: "This is clearly a piracy. Israel must apologize and answer. According to unconfirmed information, we have around 50 wounded and 10 martyries. No country is above the international law."

Meanwhile, tens of thousands people are protesting in front of Israel's Consulate General in Istanbul.

1500 GMT: Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning Israel:

Israel has once again clearly demonstrated that it does not value human lives and peaceful initiatives through targeting innocent civilians. We strongly condemn these inhuman acts of Israel. This grave incident which took place in high seas in gross violation of international law might cause irreversible consequences in our relations.

Besides the initiatives being conducted by our Embassy in Tel Aviv, this unacceptable incident is being strongly protested and explanation is demanded from Israeli Ambassador in Ankara, who has been invited to our Ministry.

Whatsoever the motives might be, such actions against civilians who are involved only in peaceful activities cannot be accepted. Israel will have to bear the consequences of these actions which constitute a violation of international law.

May God bestow His mercy upon those who lost their lives. We wish to express our condolences to the bereaved families of the deceased, and swift recovery to the wounded.

1440 GMT: Israel's Portrayal. Amidst the rush of Israeli depictions of the attack --- with the continuing use of the word "lynching", now from the commandos who carried out the assault --- this story stands out from a "Ron Ben Yishai" in YNet:

Navy commandoes slid down to the vessel one by one, yet then the unexpected occurred: The passengers that awaited them on the deck pulled out bats, clubs, and slingshots with glass marbles, assaulting each soldier as he disembarked. The fighters were nabbed one by one and were beaten up badly, yet they attempted to fight back.



However, to their misfortune, they were only equipped with paintball rifles used to disperse minor protests, such as the ones held in Bilin. The paintballs obviously made no impression on the activists, who kept on beating the troops up and even attempted to wrest away their weapon.

1435 GMT: Washington's Reaction. The US statement, given by White House spokesman Bill Burton, is far more restrained than the UN denunciation of Israel (1330 GMT) and even Britain's expression of concern (1035 GMT). Burton said the Obama administration "deeply regrets the loss of life and injuries sustained" and officials are "currently working to understand the circumstances surrounding this tragedy".

1430 GMT: The 4th ship in the flotilla is now being brought into port in Ashdod.

1420 GMT: The Israeli Line. The Israeli military has released its version of today's attack on the Freedom Flotilla, complete with an aerial video:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bU12KW-XyZE&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

1410 GMT: Glenn Greenwald, in a bitter denunciation of the Israeli attack, offers an overview both of the Freedom Flotilla and of the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

1400 GMT: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has cancelled his trip to Washington. He was due to meet President Obama tomorrow.

1330 GMT: The British Government, via Foreign Secretary William Hague, has issued this statement:

I deplore the loss of life during the interception of the Gaza Flotilla. Our Embassy is in urgent contact with the Israeli Government. We are asking for more information and urgent access to any UK nationals involved.‪ ‪

We have consistently advised against attempting to access Gaza in this way, because of the risks involved. But at the same time, there is a clear need for Israel to act with restraint and in line with international obligations. It will be important to establish the facts about this incident, and especially whether enough was done to prevent deaths and injuries. ‪

This news underlines the need to lift the restrictions on access to Gaza, in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1860. The closure is unacceptable and counter-productive. There can be no better response from the international community to this tragedy than to achieve urgently a durable resolution to the Gaza crisis.

1200 GMT: An Al Jazeera correspondent reports from Ashdod: "Israeli hecklers continue to make if hard for us to report the story....They are only heckling Arab media, such as Al Jazeera and Al Arabiyya....While Arab protestors and left-wing Israelis escorted away by police, they don't seem to be doing much to stop the right-wing hecklers."

1105 GMT: The 2nd boat of the flotilla is nearing port in Ashdod.

1045 GMT: Amidst protests in Turkey against the attack on the Freedom Flotilla, the Turkish Ambassador to Israel has been recalled. Israeli authorities have advised citizens not to travel to Turkey.

The Turkish Deputy Prime Minister has condemned Israel: “This operation will leave a bloody stain on the history of humanity.”

1035 GMT: The first ship of the flotilla is now in Ashdod. Al Jazeera English is reporting up to 19 dead.

The United Nations has issued a statement: "Such tragedies are entirely avoidable if Israel heeds the repeated calls of the international community to end its counterproductive and unacceptable blockade of Gaza."

1015 GMT: Justifying the Attack. Back from a break to find more of the same on Israeli side --- Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon has claimed that the deaths resulted from a "provocation" by the passengers of the flotilla: "On the deck we found weapons which were used against the forces. The organizers' intent was violent and the results were unfortunate. Israel regrets the loss of life. We called the organizers once and again the stop the provocations."

Israel Defense Forces are claiming via Twitter, "5 soldiers injured during flotilla mission --- 2 severely and 3 moderately".

0845 GMT: The Arab League has said it will hold an emergency meeting tomorrow over the attack on the Freedom Flotilla.

0830 GMT: More footage of the Israel attack, this time from a Turkish source, complementing the video we have posted, before commandoes boarded the ship. There are graphic images of wounded and a correspondent declaring, "We are under attack from all sides."

0820 GMT: Schools have been closed and shelters opened in the Israeli port of Ashdod, where Israeli forces are towing the Freedom Flotilla.

0815 GMT: We have posted video of the last report from Al Jazeera correspondent Jamal Elshayyal from the lead ship of the Freedom Flotilla, made moments before Israeli commandos boarded. I have asked some questions, in light of Elshayyal's report, about the Israeli account that commandos were merely defending themselves.

0745 GMT: Amidst the presentation by Israeli officials of their version of this morning's events, we post a video --- made before the assault --- by a Free Gaza Movement member: "If You're Watching This, The Flotilla Has Been Attacked". The speaker, Caoimhe Butterly, anticipates the post-attack political contest which is unfolding on this LiveBlog.

0730 GMT: Speaking on Al Jazeera English, Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan counters the Israeli allegations: "None of those [on the ships] was part of Hamas; they were supporters and activists for the human rights of Palestinians."

0725 GMT: As Al Jazeera English tries to assess the Israeli military's press conference, members of the crowd in Ashdod stand behind the reporter with a large Israeli flag.

0720 GMT: Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has declared three days of mourning for those killed in the Freedom Flotilla.

0715 GMT: The "Lynching" of the Commandos. Israeli military spokeswoman Liebovich responds to a question:

"If you have one soldier and you have a dozen activists attacking that soldier, this is a lynch. When the passengers on this ship are trying to break the soldier's legs and arms, this is what I call a lynch. This is what happened....We had no intention to confront these passengers."

(Liebovich adds that she is "sure" the flotilla's passengers were not human rights activists but were connected with Hamas.)

Readers may compare this "lynch" to the live images aboard the ship when the commandos landed, currently being re-broadcast in the LiveFeed.

0710 GMT: The Israeli Propaganda Push. With communications with the aid ships cut off (CNN rather hopelessly is using vague reports from a correspondent in Cairo and then saying, "We have been unable to contact anyone in the flotilla"), Israeli authorities are trying to fill the space with their case.

Israel Defense Forces spokeswoman Amital Liebovich has given a press briefing that Israeli commandos faced "severe violence" --- a "lynch" --- by the flotilla's passengers with "sharp items" and "knives": "Live fire was used."

Liebovich says six Israeli commandos were injured "as well as" 10 passengers killed.

Liebovich insists, "There is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza" and adds, "The passengers of this flotilla...prepared themselves for violence against their soldiers."

Liebovich's press conference is complemented by this Israeli military statement: “During the takeover, the soldiers encountered serious physical violence by the protesters, who attacked them with live fire.” The "lynch" theme had already appeared, before the briefing, in The Jerusalem Post.

0644 GMT: The Israeli Line (cont.). The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs is pushing a film clip of the Israeli military issuing a warning to the Freedom Flotilla before boarding the Mavi Marmara: "The Israeli government supports delivery of humanitarian supplies to the civilian population in the Gaza Strip and invites you to enter the Ashdod port."

I've already seen the clip on Al Jazeera English.

0642 GMT: Contrary to other reports, Israel authorities say the flotilla ships will be towed to the port of Ashdod.

0640 GMT: Political Reaction. Gaza Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas has asked the Palestinian Authority to suspend all negotiations --- direct or indirect --- with Israel.

0635 GMT: Israeli Army says four Israeli naval commandos were injured: 1 seriously, 1 moderately, 2 lightly. It claims "light ammunition" was coming from flotilla ships so their troops "fought back".

0625 GMT: The last blog entry from Abbas Al Lawati from the attacked ships:

I've just heard that Israel is expected send divers to take control of vessels from below.

There were reports of helicopters flying overhead a little while ago but it turns out it was a flase alarm. There was, however, a flashing light hovering above one of the challenger ships. It could be a helicopter, possibly commandos. The Mavi Marmara is massive so I doubt commandos will approach us but both Challengers are just small passenger boats.

0615 GMT: The Israeli Line. David Saranga of the Israeli Consulate in New York gives an early indication of how West Jerusalem will defend the military operation, despite the 16 deaths.

Saranga lifts this line from London's Daily Telegraph, in an article on the Israeli attack: "Marine commandos had opened fire after being attacked with axes and knives by a number of the passengers on board the ships, the [Israeli] private channel 10 said."

(Minutes later, Saranga points readers to a page, "The Jewish Internet Defense Force", which recycles the line about axes/knives.)

In Israel, police have declared a heightened state of emergency, deploying thousands of forces around the country. A crowd in the Israeli port of Ashdod have been heckling the crew of Al Jazeera Arabic.

0605 GMT: The Turkish Government has condemned the Israeli attack. A crowd of demonstrators have surrounded the house of the Israeli Ambassador and asked him to leave the country.

The ship attacked this morning, the Mavi Marmara, is Turkish-registered.

0603 GMT: The Israeli attack was on the Mavi Marmara, one of the six ships in the flotilla. In a report from the ship just before communications were cut during the raid, Jamal Elshayyal of Al Jazeera said two people had been killed and organisers were ordering passengers to go inside the ship's cabin. The ship's white flag had been raised.

Sounds of live fire could be heard as Elshayyal reported, despite the raising of the flag of surrender.

0600 GMT: We are continuing the live feed from Turkish outlets of the Freedom Flotilla. Warning: images may be distressing.

0545 GMT: We wake this morning to find that overnight Israeli forces have attacked the six ships of the "Freedom Flotilla" carrying aid to Gaza.

Israel Army Radio says at least 16 members of the convoy were killed and more than 30 injured when troops boarded the flotilla. The assault took place in international waters, 65 kilometres (40 miles) off the Gazan coast.

The attack by armed Israeli soldiers was accompanied by helicopters. Al Jazeera's Jamal Elshayyal, on board one of the ships, the Mavi Marmara, said Israeli troops used live ammunition.

Israeli Army Radio said soldiers opened fire "after confronting those on board carrying sharp objects".

The Free Gaza Movement, the organisers of the flotilla, say the ships are now being towed to the Israeli town of Haifa, instead of the port of Ashdod, where Israel said members of the flotilla would be held in detention. The Movement claims the step is to avoid waiting journalists.

The Latest from Iran (17 May): Let's Make a Deal (But Not with You, Mousavi)

2120 GMT: We close tonight with an analysis by Gary Sick, posted in a separate entry, of today's Tehran agreement on uranium enrichment.

2045 GMT:Political Prisoner Watch. Literary critic Abbas Khalili Dermaneh (also known as Khalil Dermaneki) has been released after almost five months in detention. Dermaneh was arrested during the Ashura demonstrations on 27 December.

Ahmad Yazdanfar, the head of Mir Hossein Mousavi's security detail, has been arrested.

NEW Iran Analysis: Assessing the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Gary Sick)
NEW Iran Document: Text of Iran-Brazil-Turkey Agreement on Uranium Enrichment
NEW Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “The Islamic Republic Depends Upon the People”
NEW Iran Document: The Prosecutor on the Executions, “Leaders of Sedition” (15 May)
NEW Iran Urgent: The Deal on Uranium Enrichment
Iran Blackout: Shutting Down the Movies
The Latest from Iran (16 May): Intimidation After the Executions

1800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Writer and children's rights activist Reza Khandan was released last Wednesday. Peyke Iran claims that that international pressure contributed to the decision to free him.


1440 GMT: Karroubi's "Islamic Republic Depends on the People". We have posted the English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's latest rallying call for the Iranian people to defend the Republic.

1415 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amir Kabir University student Mohammad Yousefi has been released after six months in detention.

1150 GMT: More "It's Still War!" MediaFail (see 1024 GMT). It's one thing for The New York Times to package this morning's Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal as, first and foremost, a complication for sanctions. Even if their "experts" are doing no more than speculating --- "The terms mirror a deal with the West last October which fell apart when Iran backtracked. This time, however, those same terms may be unacceptable to Washington and its partners because Iran has since increased its supply of nuclear fuel" --- at least there is the guise of analysis rather than Government spin.

Reuters, however, has no excuse. The agency ran the scare story last Friday from "Western diplomats" that Iran must be preparing for militarised nuclear capability because it was enriching uranium to 20 percent, rather than sending it abroad. So what happens when Iran does agree to send the uranium abroad?

Well, Reuters calls "Western diplomats" --- possibly the same ones who fed them their Friday article --- to get quotes:

"If they refuse to stop enriching to 20 percent and make this proposal for fuel, then why are they continuing the higher enrichment [with their own centrifuges]? There is no other peaceful justification," a Western diplomat said. [NOTE: The "peaceful justification" is that Iran may not get enriched uranium for up to a year, even if this morning's deal goes through with the US and other powers.]

"This would be a deal-breaker," another said.

1120 GMT: Nuclear Question of the Day/Week/Month. We're continuing special updates in a separate entry on today's Iran-Brazil-Turkey deal on uranium enrichment, and we have posted a copy of the agreement.

An EA correspondent, meanwhile, asks the key question about Iranian politics. We all know that President Ahmadinejad, seeking legitimacy, has pursued an agreement since last summer, but "why are the Supreme Leader and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, who opposed last October's deal, now supporting it?"

1030 GMT: Academic Corner. Four students from Elm-o-Sanat University in Tehran have been expelled for political opposition.

1024 GMT: CNN on Iran Nuclear Deal "It's Still War!" A hopeless display of journalism from CNN this morning....

Instead of trying to get to grips with the possible significance of the deal announced by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey, CNN's website goes back to the older scare story --- circulated by "Western diplomats" on Friday --- of Iran putting in a second cascade of centrifuges to provide 20-percent enriched uranium for its Tehran Research Reactor, producer of medical isotopes (see Saturday's updates).

True, Foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told the Islamic Republic News Agency this morning that Iran would continue this process but --- since arrangements for a swap of Iran's 3.5-percent uranium for 20-percent uranium in Turkey may not be completed until mid-2011 --- that would seem a logical step to keep the TRR going.

So here's CNN gambit: "20-percent enriched uranium is the threshold for uranium capable of setting off a nuclear reaction. And Western leaders have alleged that Iran is trying to create nuclear weapons under the guise of a civilian energy program."

Umm... "Threshold for a nuclear reaction". Not threshold for even a single bomb, which is more than 90 percent.
0750 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi, meeting academics, doctors, nurses, and families of martyrs, has asserted that the Islamic Republic was only born through people's votes; therefore, the Republic derives its meaning from the people.

0730 GMT: The Nuclear Deal. We will be providing updates on today's agreement between Brazil, Turkey, and Iran in a separate entry.

Meanwhile, the key (and probably unasked) question on the internal dimension: what legitimacy will the Ahmadinejad Government claim (and what legitimacy will it obtain) from the agreement? Not sure if anyone has noticed, but there seems to be an anniversary coming up on 12 June....

0720 GMT: Intimidation. Following the public threat to Mir Hossein Mousavi from the Tehran Prosecutor General and the letter by 175 members of Parliament calling for prosecution of Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi (see yesterday's updates),  Khabar Online offers a timeline of the warnings to Mousavi and Karroubi.

0620 GMT: We open this morning with updates on two important stories.

Media inside and outside Iran will likely be focused on news of agreement between Iran, Brazil, and Turkey on a procedure for a deal on enrichment of Tehran's uranium. We've got the latest developments and what to watch for today.

Inside Iran, however, the political story is the continued effort by the Government to defend the executions, now more than a week old, of 5 Iranians. We have a transcript of Saturday's lengthy statement by Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi justifying the hangings.



However, just as significant in the statement --- despite Dowlatabadi's extended denial that the timing of the executions has any political significance --- is his high-profile warning to Mir Hossein Mousavi. The Tehran Prosecutor's references to Mousavi's position as Prime Minister in the 1980s, during a period when many Iranians were executed, should not be missed: you supported them then, so why trumpet public opposition now?

Then there is Dowlatabadi's pointed declaration to the "leaders of sedition": we've seen you denounce this execution of rightfully-condemned terrorists, we've noted it, and we will add it to the list of charges against you.

Absolutely no connection to the 12 June anniversary of the Presidential election, with the possibility of opposition demonstrations, whatsoever.

The Latest from Iran (11 May): Opposition Surfaces

2220 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A Tehran appeals court has upheld the guilty verdict against Hamzeh Karami, manager of the Jomhouriyat website. Karami will serve one year in prison for propaganda against the system and 10 years in prison and permanent dismissal from government services for embezzlement.

Karami was acquitted of collaboration and collusion with to disrupt national security, which would have added five years to his jail term.

NEW Iran Document: Maziar Bahari’s Response to His 13-Year (and 74-Lash) Sentence
NEW Iran Special: A Renewal of Protest for 12 June?
UPDATED Iran Video: Protest Against Ahmadinejad at Shahid Beheshti University (10 May)
Iran Background Video: Protest in Kurdistan Over Political Prisoners
Latest from Iran (10 May): Will the Executions Matter?

1905 GMT: Behave Yourselves! Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar has said police will deal firmly with those who violate socially accepted standards, including disregard for the Islamic dress code: “As the president has ordered and the people have demanded, police will take firm action against those who break the norms."


1555 GMT: Getting over the MediaFails. I was considering an entry about a series of media trainwrecks in Iran coverage --- Bronze Medal to CNN's Rick Sanchez, as the broadcaster decided to notice opposition because of yesterday's 8-minute video from the Shahid Beheshti University protest, for his statement that "five demonstrators died" on Sunday; Silver Medal to Reuters for simply dressing up the Islamic Republic News Agency press release on Sunday's executions; Gold Medal to The Huffington Post for skipping Iran coverage in favour of a food-fight between Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett and their critics.

But why spend the time and energy on failures? Instead, we have posted the response of journalist Maziar Bahari to his 13-year, 74-lash sentence by an Iranian court.

1515 GMT: The Executions. Zahra Rahnavard has issued a statement denouncing Sunday's hangings as a demonstration of the "extreme provocative and violent rule of the regime".

1345 GMT: Promise of the Day. First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, accused of corruption by leading members of Parliament, has reportedly said in a government meeting: "If one of these frauds is confirmed, I'll cut off my hand."

1335 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in the run-up to 12 June, coming off the political fence? Speaking to reformist youth, Rafsanjani reporting said that the imprisonment of “concerned critics” of the government will enhance people’s awareness of the situation and stressed that “silence” in the face of political issues is unacceptable.

Rafsanjani, according to Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Kalemeh, said that arrests have made a significant number of people “more persistent” and added, “Do not lose heart!.....When you enter political activism, you should not think that the equations are simple and the matters will be resolved with a few demonstrations.”

1332 GMT: The Executions. Human Rights Activists News Agency has posted a report with pictures and video of a demonstration in Washington DC against the hanging of 5 Iranians on Sunday. The National Iranian American Council has issued a statement condemning the executions.

Pictures have also emerged of a protest in Iraq's Sulaimaniya.


1330 GMT: Sniping at Ahmadinejad. In another show of defiance, the Iranian Parliament has pronounced that 11 rules of implementation of the Ahmadinejad Government, covering areas such as money laundering and budget reform, are illegal.

1320 GMT: Khamenei's Man Attacks. The Supreme Leader's vice-deputy to the Revolutionary Guard, Hojetoleslam Muhammad Bagher-Zolghadr, has declared that Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, a hate figure for many in the regime, wanted to become Ayatollah Khomeini's successor and that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani is seeking "to be a pillar of Revolution".

1315 GMT: Video Game Corner. Rah-e-Sabz, citing the Islamic Republic News Agency, claims that a new computer game, "Fighting Sedition", has been released. It is supposedly based on a fighter aircraft attacking targets that look like opposition figures Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami.

1154 GMT: Economy Watch. The government has announced that implementation of the Ahmadinejad subsidy cuts will begin on 21 May.

1150 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Medical student Maryam Abbasinejad, arrested on 2 May, has been released. It is unknown whether the decision by the authorities is linked to a letter from 60 professors from the Tehran University of Medical Sciences to the university’s president, calling for the freeing of Abbasinejad.

1040 GMT: An EA correspondent, drawing on information from inside Iran, reports that it was not only Shahid Beheshti University students who came out to demonstrate against President Ahmadinejad. The university's lecturers were also present in significant numbers.

0855 GMT: The US Hikers. International media are buzzing about the announcement by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki that Iran will give visas to the mothers of three US citizens arrested along the Iraqi border last July to visit their children in a Tehran prison.

It is just our speculation, but there may be a connection to Iran's apparent efforts to get a deal, possibly brokered by Turkey and Brazil, on uranium enrichment. There is likely to be more on this later today or tomorrow....

0825 GMT: Panic Stations. Here's the first paragraph ofthis morning's story from The Times of London: "Iran is focused on improving a growing arsenal of ballistic missiles but needs at least four more years to be able to target London and more than a decade to threaten the East Coast of the United States, a leading think-tank [the International Institute for Strategic Studies] said yesterday."

However, that measured conclusion is not nearly dramatic enough for The Times' editors. Their headline? "UK could be target for Tehran missiles ‘in four years’".

0800 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. Reuters reports, from the Iranian newspaper Siyaset-e-Rouz, the statement of Minister of Oil Masoud Mirzakemi that Iran needs $25 billion of investment to develop its oil and gas industry.

0715 GMT: Government Gets Tough on Itself! Khabar Online reports that the Government is to fine officials 1000 Toman (just over $1) for each minute they are late to meetings.

0710 GMT: The Economic Battle. After his venture to New York, President Ahmadinejad finally returned to domestic contests yesterday, declaring over his subsidy cut plan, "I stand to the end for justice and will not be fooled by anyone."
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0700 GMT: The Executions. Political prisoners in the Gohardasht facility have published a letter of solidarity with those executed on Sunday.

0635  GMT: More Hangings? In the aftermath of Sunday's hanging, The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran warns that at least sixteen Kurdish detainees and eleven post-election protestors are in danger of unannounced, sudden executions.

0625 GMT: Considering the context of the executions and yesterday's response, an EA reader sends us a discussion in Sweden including Hassan Shariatmadari and Farrokh Negahdar on "Perspectives of the Green Movement".

0620 GMT: Silencing the Families of the Executed. Fereshteh Ghazi reports that the Iranian authorities are refusing to release the bodies of the five Iranians put to death on Sunday to their families, who are waiting in front of Evin Prison. Ghazi claims that the families are being told they must sign an oath that there will be no protests in their towns.

0615 GMT: Ghazi on Ahmadinejad and Journalists. We notice video of a speech by Fereshteh Ghazi, one of the foremost chroniclers and analysts of Iran, at George Washington University. In the extract, she considers the Government's attempt to "frame" political discussion with its repression of journalists.


Fereshteh Ghazi (@iranbaan) from Mehran Divanbaigyzand on Vimeo.

0610 GMT: We begin this morning with a special analysis, "The Renewal of Protest Before 12 June?", considering the catalyst of Sunday's executions of five Iranians, the anti-Ahmadinejad demonstration at Shahid Beheshti University, and the wider political context.

Iran Special: A Renewal of Protest for 12 June?

Just over 24 hours ago, we wrote, "Iranians and activists throughout the world responded with sadness and fury to the Sunday morning news that five Iranians...had been executed....But what will the response be inside Iran? Will the hangings provoke public anger or will any display be muted?"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqqsSVWVa1s&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

UPDATED Iran Video: Protest Against Ahmadinejad at Shahid Beheshti University (10 May)
The Latest from Iran (11 May): Opposition Surfaces

We got a partial but vivid answer yesterday. The Tehran Bus Workers Union, as well as labour activists outside Iran, condemned the hangings. Mir Hossein Mousavi issued a statement on "the Judiciary shift[ing] its position from supporting the oppressed toward supporting authorities and those in power....Is this the...justice you were after?"


And then there was the demonstration at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran. As news leaked that President Ahmadinejad was coming to the campus to speak, the students gathered. They not only gathered; they chanted defiantly. They proclaimed their readiness to sacrifice; they sang songs of unity; they taunted the President. They did so in the face of the security presence and even as the clashes began.

That protest alone resurrected international coverage of Iran as more than a nuclear issue. The 8-minute clip of the chanting and the confrontation with Iran's security troops gave images to reports which had come out in the press, bringing broadcasters like CNN, which had gone to sleep over the post-election developments, to life.

Defenders of the regime will jump in today and claim this was an isolated incident, even as they redouble the loud pronouncements of foreign intrigue and a malevolent opposition. But consider that yesterday's university protest, even if fueled by the news of Sunday's hangings, was not the first one this month. Students at Tehran University also defied the regime crackdown on 1 May, again "welcoming" the President as he tried to seize publicity with a statement from the campus.

That in turn winds the clock back to November-December 2009 when opposition was marked by a series of university demonstrations before, during, or after National Students Day on 7 December. Publicly this kept demands for justice and rights simmering, leading up to the show of resistance against the Government on Ashura (27 December).

And it should never be forgotten that the public display is not and will not be the sum total of discontent with and challenge to the regime. The simple formula of Greens v. Ahmadinejad ignores the strands of pressure upon the President, coming not only from "reformists" but from other politicians, clerics, and even the "conservative" establishment. While the Green Movement has supposedly crumbled after 11 February, more blows have been thrown against Ahmadinejad over his economic plans, the supposed corruption and mismanagement of allies including his First Vice President and his Chief of Staff, and the handling of the post-election crisis.

The image of a revival of direct opposition to the President, even if it is "only" on a university campus, buttresses the political foundations for that assault upon Mahmoud. Thus the significance of the coincidence that the Shahid Beheshti demonstration occurred as former President Hashemi Rafsanjani was resurfacing with the pointed declaration that his 17 July Friday Prayers, which was accompanied by large demonstrations, still contained the solution for this crisis.

Will it do the same this time, as the clock now ticks toward the 1st anniversary of the Presidential election on 12 June? Too soon to tell. However, I have to raise a bit of a smile that yesterday's events came only hours after an analyst for Al Jazeera English, Massoud Parsi, declared:

Several months on, Ahmadinejad's government appears to have emerged stronger and more self-confident than it was before the contentious elections....

The government and security forces have managed to suppress any serious challenge to the government and what looked like an increasingly popular movement has withered away as a result of a brutal crackdown and political gamesmanship.

This has been greatly assisted by foreign plots against the regime, which made it much easier for the government to rally support in the face of external threats.

Wrong, wrong, and wrong again. The Fat Lady (and Mahmoud) have not sung. This is not over.

Britain's Election LiveBlog: An Interim Assessment "Hung Parliament"

0146 GMT. An Interim Assessment. At the risk of breaking too soon, we are going to shut down for a few hours with the following projection:

1. CONSERVATIVES DO NOT WIN AN OVERALL MAJORITY: While there have been individual Tory successes in grabbing seats beyond their 1st 116 targets --- the magic number for a majority --- they have failed on too many occasions within the initial 116.

Britain’s Election on The Morning After: “Who Here Has a Mandate?”
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Britain’s Elections

The most important pattern appears to be regional: the Tories are doing well in Wales but having mixed fortunes in the Midlands and near London. And, with rogue exceptions, they are not making inroads on Lib Dem seats.

2. LIB DEMS MAKE NO ADVANCE: All the excitement over a three-party system, raised by the performance of Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg in the candidates' debates, seems to have drained away. The reasons will have to be discerned later --- my own suspicion is that the Fear Factor of a "hung Parliament" drove voters away in the final days (even though, ironically, we are likely to get that hung Parliament) --- but the Liberal Democrats, with a few exceptions, will hold what they have but gain little more.

3. LABOUR FACES A POLITICAL CHOICE: GO FOR THE COALITION? Labour appears to have held enough seats in the face of the Conservative onslaught to claim, as the British Constitution allows, the first attempt at a coalition. But can they do so with a weakened Gordon Brown and a prospective Liberal Democrat partner that appears less than politically strong in the face of tonight's results?


0155 GMT: Birmingham Edgbaston, which was supposed to declared almost 2 1/2 hours ago, is in a recount.

The Conservatives take Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire (target #42) by a scant 389 votes over Labour.

0145 GMT: The Liberal Democrats have taken Eastbourne (target #6) from the Conservatives, but the Tories have taken Harrogate (target #153) from the Lib Dems.

0140 GMT: Another blow to the Conservatives in Scotland. They have failed to take Perth (target #30).

And the Tories have not taken Eastleigh, held by the Liberal Democrats' Shadow Home Secretary Chris Huhne. The seat was #11 on the target list.

0130 GMT: The Conservatives have taken Tamworth (target #52) and Chester (target #15) from Labour.

The Tories, however, have not taken Telford (target #141). And I failed to note earlier that Angus in Scotland, held by the Scottish National Party, was target #39.

0125 GMT: The Conservatives have taken Nuneaton (target #85) from Labour with a majority of more than 2000. And the Tories have taken Basildon South (target #31) from Labour with an edge of almost 6000 on a swing of 7.5%.

However, the Tories have failed to take Bolton Northeast (target #94) in northwestern England, with a swing of only just over 1%.


0119 GMT: Vale of Glamorgan in Wales (Conservative target #32) declares.

Conservatives take the seat from Labour.

In an even bigger result, the Conservatives have overturned a 7000+ Lib Dem majority in Montgomeryshire in Wales. The seat was only #210 on the Tory list. Personal factors may have played a part: it was held by Lembit Opik, a politician known as much for unorthodox views and celebrity associations as for policies.

0115 GMT: The Conservatives have taken Aberconwy in Wales (target #5) from Labour.

0113 GMT: The prospect of the British National Party, noted for its views on race and ethnicity, taking its first seat in Parliament has receded. The BNP leader, Nick Griffin, is sayiing that he would be pleased to finish second in Barking.

0112 GMT: More holds for Labour (Glasgow Central, Airdrie, Cumbernauld, Livingston, Dunfermline, and Inverclyde in Scotland, Barnsley Central in Yorkshire, Hull West on Humberside, Bishop Auckland), Scottish Nationalist (Dundee East), and Conservative (Dorset West, Norfolk South, Hertford, Worcestershire Mid).

0107 GMT: Labour have taken back Glasgow East from the Scottish National Party. The seat had been a Labour stronghold but was lost in a by-election soon after Gordon Brown became Prime Minister.

0105 GMT: There is a recount at Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire (Conservative target #42).

0102 GMT: Exeter (Conservative target #176) declares. The seat is currently held by a Labour Minister, Ben Bradshaw.

Labour hold with a majority of almost 3000.

0100 GMT: Holds for Labour (Llanelli in Wales; Coatbridge), Conservative (Canterbury, Staffordshire South), and Scottish Nationalist Party (Angus).

0056 GMT: Labour have taken back Blaenau Gwent in Wales from an Independent.

Conservatives have held Newbury (Lib Dem target #20) with a 7.0% swing.

0053 GMT: Conservativres hold Sevenoaks near London and Christchurch on the south coast; Labour hold Wrexham in Wales and Gedling in the East Midlands.

The Gedling result is another blow to the Tories' hope of a majority. It was target #91.

0047 GMT: Conservatives hold Guildford, Labour hold Glenrothes in Scotland.

The Guildford result is significant, as it was the #3 turnout for the Lib Dems. The Tories turned a narrow majority into a sizable one with a 6.5% swing.

0043 GMT: Declaration from Tooting in London. This is Conservative target #112 (close to their borderline for an absolute majority).

Conservatives 19,514, Labour 22,038. Labour hold.

Sadiq Khan, a Transport Minister, gained 1% while the Tories gained 8% and the Lib Dems lost 5%. That feels to me like tactical voting to keep the Conservatives out, and it's also notable that the turnout of 69% was up 10% over 2005.

0039 GMT: Labour have held Islwyn in Wales.

0036 GMT: Brown still speaking, as the Conservatives take Battersea from Labour.

That's an essential gain for the Tories, as it was their #4 target. Labour had less than 1% edge in 2005; the Conservatives easily overturned that and won by 12%.

0034 GMT: Well, Gordon Brown held his seat.

More significantly, Labour did hold City of Durham with a sustained majority of 3000.

0030 GMT: Declaration from City of Durham. Labour had a majority of 3000; this is Lib Dem target #23.

Labour 20,496 (and here BBC cuts away to Gordon Brown's count in Kirkcaldy in Scotland!)....

0029 GMT: The Lib Dems have held East Fife in Scotland.

0027 GMT: The Turned-Away Voters. In Hackney in London, two Labour candidates, Diane Abbott and Meg Hillier, have submitted an official complaint about people refused entry into polling stations. More than 50 people allegedly were denied the vote after waiting for 45 minutes.

0023 GMT: Labour have held Sedgefield (Tony Blair's old constituency) in northeast England and Ynys Mon in Wales.

0021 GMT: Labour have held East Kilbride, Motherwell, and Hamilton West in Scotland and Vale of Clwyd in Wales.

0016 GMT: An Independent candidate has taken North Down in Northern Ireland. Lady Hermon refused to stand as a Conservative-allied candidate for the Unionists and increased her majority from 5000 to nearly 15,000.

0014 GMT: Conservatives hold Putney in southwest London. Which is no surprise whatsoever.

0010 GMT: The Torbay count is imminent. It's #54 on the Conservative list and is held by the Liberal Democrats with a majority of almost 3000.

Labour 3231, Lib Dem 23,126, Conservative 19,048. Lib Dems hold and that's a setback for the Conservatives. Indeed, they increased their majority with a 1.1% swing.

0009 GMT. Democratic Unionists hold Upper Bann in Northern Ireland. Labour hold Easington.

0007 GMT. Grasping. The normally excellent David Dimbleby tries to make news out of a single result (Kingswood): "We now be looking at an overall Conservative majority."

0003 GMT: First Conservative Gain. The Tories have taken Kingswood in Gloucestershire with a 9.4% swing from Labour.

The seat was relatively low on the Conservative target list at #131 (the Tories need to take 116 seats to claim a majority).

Funny, how the first major tremor of the night snuck past the media --- everyone was expecting it to come in Birmingham Edgbaston.

2359 GMT: The First Shift of the Night. Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, have gained Arfon from Labour.

2355 GMT: The Liberal Democrats have held Thornbury and Yate in southwest England. Labour have held Durham North and Darlington in northeast England.

2343 GMT. Turned-Away Voters. This is getting close to the label "scandal" for the media. David Dimbleby and Nick Robinson of the BBC have just taken apart Jenny Watson, the chair of the Electoral Commission, and --- with few results coming in --- anchorwoman Fiona Bruce is pounding away about the footage of "extraordinary scenes".

2341 GMT: Results. Sinn Fein have held West Tyrone in Northern Ireland. The Democratic Unionists (Ian Paisley Jr., the son of the famous Northern Ireland Unionist leader) has held North Antrim.

2338 GMT. BBC "Party Boat" Update. The writer  Armando Ianucci, forced to endure the gaze of Andrew Neil for a couple of minutes and to say something funny, reports back, "That was some form of living hell."

2335 GMT: Turned-Away Voters. Problems now reported in Hackney and Islington South in London, a Liverpool constituency, and other areas.

2330 GMT: Sky is reporting the first gain of the night, with Liberal Democrats taking Edinburgh South from Labour. BBC has not even mentioned this. We're checking.

(Sky have no numbers posted on their website so I have no clue why they are calling this.)

2320 GMT: The result in Birmingham Edgbaston, the first significant marginal expected to declare, is likely to be after 0000 GMT because of high voter turnout.

2308 GMT: The Election Commission has promised a thorough review of the problems with turned-away voters.

2300 GMT: The Iran Parallel? An EA reader writes, "The voting system was a total shambles, Iran-style shambles. Exact same thing happened in Tehran on 12 June."

2258 GMT: Turned-Away Voters. BBC is now reporting that in a marginal seat in Chester (Labour majority 793), more than 600 voters were turned away because electoral lists had allegedly not been updated.

The returning officer in Birmingham has issued a statement, "People have had 15 hours to vote, everyone knows that polling stations close at 10pm, it is clearly marked on polling cards. There have been a couple of polling stations where we’ve had to lock the doors but we have endeavoured to get as many people in as possible and process them."

2255 GMT: Significantly, neither the Conservative politicians on TV or the press release from Conservative Central Office talks of a majority. Instead, it's slogans like "it's a historic result --- the most seats gained by Conservatives in any election since 1931 --- more than Mrs Thatcher in 1979".

2245 GMT: The Turned-Away Voters. This could be a major issue, with David Dimbleby hammering away, "A rum job...pretty chaotic". Reports coming in of stations running out of ballot papers and further confirmation that some stations stayed open while others closed.

Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, is reportedly personally apologising to voters in his Sheffield constituency. Harriet Harman, Labour's Deputy Leader, has said some results "may be challenged".

2240 GMT: Sunderland Central comes in. Despite the efforts of the BBC to big this up --- "a 12.8% percent swing and it goes to the Tories" --- Labour is returned with a margin of more than 6700.

Labour drops 5%, Tories up 5%. But no big deal, even if the Swingometer shook a bit.

BBC analysts are talking a lot of tosh about this --- "One part of Sunderland is different from another part of Sunderland", blah, blah.

The significance is that, because there was a glimmer the Conservatives could take Sunderland Central, Labour probably put in a greater effort than in Sunderland South and Sunderland West and turned out more of its vote. Not much beyond this.

2235 GMT: So a 2nd declaration has come in, this one from Sunderland West: Labour 52.5%, Conservative 21.8%, Lib Dem 17.1%, British National Party 5.1%, UK Independence Party 3.4%.

That's a 11.6% swing from Labour to Conservative, which sounds massively impressive until you realise: when you had almost 60 percent of the vote in the previous election, there's a lot way to swing.

2230 GMT. Tea Break!

2215 GMT. Useless Academic Projection of the Night (1). "Professor Vernon Bogdanor, from Oxford University, tells the BBC that if the swing of 8.4% in Houghton and Sunderland South is repeated across the country we will not have a hung parliament - we will have an outright Conservative victory."

2210 GMT: David Dimbleby, the BBC's iconic anchorman, on the turning away of people as polls closed: "It's a disgrace, isn't it? It's really a disgrace. It's Third World politics and there ought to be an enquiry into it. It's an absolute disgrace."

2208 GMT: Revised Exit Poll. The BBC number-crunchers, doing deeper analysis on the exit polls, have slightly altered the projection: Conservatives 305, Labour 255, Lib Dem 61, Others 29.

2205 GMT: The BBC is reporting that Lewisham in outer London kept open the polls for an extra 30 minutes --- in contrast to Birmingham, Sheffield, and Manchester --- to accommodate queues of voters.

2200 GMT: Interrogating with Nothing. Jeremy Paxman, the BBC's "tough guy" anchorman, is hammering Labour's baby-faced Douglas Alexander with no more than the iconic exit poll. It's on the lines of "You really suck, shouldn't you concede right now?"

As Paxman asks his questions, 0.001538% percent of the results have come in.

2151 GMT. The First Result. Sunderland South, a safe Labour seat, is now declaring: British National Party 1961, Liberal Democrats 5292, UK Independence Party 1022, Conservative 8147, Labour 19,137, Independent Candidate 2462.

Labour holds easily with 50% of the vote. That's a 12% drop in the Labour vote. Tories up 5, Lib Dems down 1, Independents up 7.

Not much to read into this, as it appears a lot of the swing is due to the independent candidate who ran on local issues.

2150 GMT: Big Turnout? First reports, given delays in counts and reports of those turned away at 2100 GMT (BBC is adding Manchester to Sheffield and Birmingham), indicates a large voter turnout today.

2145 GMT: BBC Bluster. Jeremy Vine, seizing an opportunity to show off the BBC's new Swingometer, is talking absolute pants (that's an academic term).

2138 GMT: Just to Complicate Matters. News is coming in that "hundreds" of people have been unable to vote in Sheffield constituencies, as they were still standing in queues when the polls closed at 2100 GMT. Police have been called in to disperse them, and the prospect of a legal challenge --- if there is a close result in any of the affected constituencies --- may emerge.

(EA's Mike Dunn has just reported that police have also been called to a polling station in Birmingham.)

2130 GMT: Bring on the Lib-Lab Coalition. Labour's Peter Mandelson has now followed Harriet Harman in saying that "the sitting government" has the first go at forming a coalition if there is no overall majority. And he also has indicated, in a gesture to the Liberal Democrats, that electoral reform is "essential".

2123 GMT: I don't want to be too dismissive but the vaunted exit poll is based on 17,607 interviews in 130 polling stations. That's polling stations, not constituencies. And there are 650 constituencies, which means 520 didn't even get a sniff of a pollster.

Start from scratch.

2118 GMT: I think ITV, given the lighting on their "reaction set", intend to conduct a seance.

2114 GMT: My 1st Good Lord of the Evening. Good Lord, how many words will have to die in interminable sentences about the possible meaning/lack of meaning/wannabe-meaning of the exit poll?

CNN, bless 'em, have either figured out that this blather is useless or is so far behind that they are talking about this afternoon's plane crash that injured the former leader of the UK Independence Party (1915 GMT).

2109 GMT: The Sunderland Fun Run. There is a curious and cute tradition here of constituencies racing to be the first to return a result. Sunderland South, the hot favourite, has been practicing all year. Cars with ballot boxes are given exemptions to go through red lights, and the BBC has curious and cute shots of young campaign workers doing a Jesse Owens (or, as this is Britain, Linford Christie) to get the boxes to the returning officer.

The goal: a return by 2143 GMT.

2105 GMT: Political Shift. First interesting political twist of the evening. Labour's Deputy Leader Harriet Harman: "There is a general feeling we need to change the voting system."

That's a pretty blatant invite to the Liberal Democrats to talk coalition, meeting their call for a revision of Britain's "first past the post" voting.

2101 GMT: Intermission. Now we get 90 minutes of speculation before the first result is declared. Everyone is putting caveats as why exit polls may not wind up being accurate but....

The surprise is that the Liberal Democrats come out so low, losing three seats since 2005. But that in turn turns out to be bad news for the Tories: there is not much lower that the Lib Dems can go in an actual result, so the Conservatives have to hope the Labour vote is inflated in the exit poll to have any shot at a majority.

2100 GMT: The Exit Poll. BBC predicts hung parliament with a Conservative majority. Tories 307, Labour 255, Lib Dems 59, Others 29.

2058 GMT: Here We Go. I don't know about you, but I'm kind of excited. Everybody is showing off their gadgets and counting down....

2054 GMT: I know the BBC means well but sometimes it does try too hard: "The BBC's Jeremy Vine will be coming over all technological using some new-fangled graphics and a revamped swingometer to show you how things are shaping up through the night. He'll even be walking down a virtual Downing Street - paved with marginal seats."

2047 GMT: Fifteen minutes from the exit poll. It will be the only exit poll tonight, as all major broadcasters have agreed to use a single survey.

2045 GMT: The Delayed Vote. The postponement of the ballot in the Thirsk and Malton constituency, caused by the death of the UK Independence Party candidate, will make little difference to the outcome. It's a solid Conservative seat, with the Tories taking almost 52 percent of the vote in 2005.

2035 GMT: A quick shout-out to the good folks at the University of Birmingham student newspaper, Redbrick, who are running a "Polling Night Live".

(Fun Fact: the University of Birmingham Clock Tower, "Old Joe", is taller than Big Ben.)

2015 GMT: Best Marking Time Story. Waiting for the results, the BBC considers, "What Can You NOT Do in a Polling Station?"

Well, you can bring your dog: "Dogs may not yet be entitled to vote but they are allowed to come and watch as long as they don't disrupt the vote....In cases where a voter has two or more dogs and will struggle to control them while casting their ballot, polling station staff may hold the dogs' leads."

You may be able to wear political clothing: "We wouldn't want people coming in with overt political clothing," says [an election organiser] "[But] there's a candidate standing in Westminster as a pirate. And if he comes in to vote in a pirate costume as is likely, we won't turn him away. The same goes for any supporters coming to vote as pirates."

You can vote if you're drunk: "Polling station staff cannot refuse a voter simply because they are drunk or under the influence of drugs."

You can't vote with the loud accompaniment of Jay-Z: "We don't want people blasting music around the place as it would be disruptive," says the election organiser.

2000 GMT: One Hour to Go. In contrast to the US, with an extended lead-in, the networks here only go on-air five minutes before polls close (the exception is Sky News, which is trying to get a jump by starting now but finding precious little to say).

A quick update on those targets (1920 GMT) and their significance: if a net loss of 24 or more seats means Labour (currently 349 seats) loses its majority. However, for the Conservatives (210) to take power outright, they have to win a net 116 seats.

1920 GMT: How to Read an Election. One basic way of following tonight's shift in power, and specifically whether the Conservatives can take a majority in the House of Commons, is to track the "target seats", those requiring the small shift in vote to move to another party.

UK Polling Report has a handy list of the top 200 Conservative and top 100 Liberal Democrat targets (there is no Labour list, as UKPR is projecting no Labour gains and 111 Labour losses tonight).

Channel 4 has a timecheck for some of the most hotly contested seats --- the first key marginal, in Birmingham Edgbaston (home of the University of Birmingham) is expected to declare about 2330 GMT.

1915 GMT: Prelude. Election Day is eerie in Britain up to the close of voting. There's a formal ban on any polling until the first exit polls are released at 2102 GMT, two minutes after the ballot boxes are sealed. The candidates, after the round-the-clock campaigning this week, do no more today than pose for a photo opportunity as they cast their votes (always accompanied by smiling spouses). The mighty BBC pretends that nothing much is happening.

All of this means that there has been more chatter about Greek politics, with the unrest over the austerity measures, than British politics today. Yet the strangeness has been doubled because of the news that has broken through:

The former leader of the UK Independence Party, Nigel Farage, was injured when the biplane in which he was a passenger crashed in Northamptonshire. The plane was circling with a trailing campaign banner when it nose-dived, apparently because the banner became entangled in the tail.

The British National Party, best known for controversial views on race and ethnicity, has apparently been crippled by acrimony. After the permanent website was taken down by a disgruntled member who criticised the leadership (pages are now unavailable), party head Nick Griffin has posted a message on a "temporary website".

1900 GMT (Two Hours to Close of Polls): A bit of nostalgia for EA tonight. We formally launched in November 2008 with an Election LiveBlog, this one of the events that led to a President-elect Obama.

1400 GMT: From our base in the centre of Britain, we'll be bringing readers updates on the most interesting election in Britain in decades.

For starters, we've posted a Basic Guide, explaining the process and the prospects for the three major parties: the ruling Labour Government of Gordon Brown, the Conservatives led by David Cameron, and the Liberal Democrats headed by Nick Clegg. There is also a glance at other parties, such as the Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, the Green Party, the UK Independence Party, and the British National Party, and some tips for those new to the system and for veterans looking  for clues as to whether Britain will have a clear decision on the next Government by tomorrow.

As polls close at 2100 GMT (10 p.m. local time), we'll roll out the sharpest LiveBlog both on the twists and turns of the vote as it comes in and on the high and low points of a British media caught between serious observation and 3-D Swingometer showmanship.

Our reading at this point? The most likely outcome is a "hung Parliament", leading to days and even weeks of maneouvring for a coalition Government or a minority Government depending on bloc-building for every piece of legislation. The one "wild card" that could alter this outcome is a "Fear Factor", pushing voters who are wary of a hung Parliament away from the Liberal Democrats, the long-standing "third party" who are now on equal footing in this campaign. Even then, those last-minute switchers would have to move towards the Conservatives rather than Labour in significant numbers.

So put on the kettle for a cup of tea --- it's going to be a long night.