Tuesday
May112010
Iran Special: A Renewal of Protest for 12 June?
Tuesday, May 11, 2010 at 6:57
Just over 24 hours ago, we wrote, "Iranians and activists throughout the world responded with sadness and fury to the Sunday morning news that five Iranians...had been executed....But what will the response be inside Iran? Will the hangings provoke public anger or will any display be muted?"
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqqsSVWVa1s&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
We got a partial but vivid answer yesterday. The Tehran Bus Workers Union, as well as labour activists outside Iran, condemned the hangings. Mir Hossein Mousavi issued a statement on "the Judiciary shift[ing] its position from supporting the oppressed toward supporting authorities and those in power....Is this the...justice you were after?"
And then there was the demonstration at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran. As news leaked that President Ahmadinejad was coming to the campus to speak, the students gathered. They not only gathered; they chanted defiantly. They proclaimed their readiness to sacrifice; they sang songs of unity; they taunted the President. They did so in the face of the security presence and even as the clashes began.
That protest alone resurrected international coverage of Iran as more than a nuclear issue. The 8-minute clip of the chanting and the confrontation with Iran's security troops gave images to reports which had come out in the press, bringing broadcasters like CNN, which had gone to sleep over the post-election developments, to life.
Defenders of the regime will jump in today and claim this was an isolated incident, even as they redouble the loud pronouncements of foreign intrigue and a malevolent opposition. But consider that yesterday's university protest, even if fueled by the news of Sunday's hangings, was not the first one this month. Students at Tehran University also defied the regime crackdown on 1 May, again "welcoming" the President as he tried to seize publicity with a statement from the campus.
That in turn winds the clock back to November-December 2009 when opposition was marked by a series of university demonstrations before, during, or after National Students Day on 7 December. Publicly this kept demands for justice and rights simmering, leading up to the show of resistance against the Government on Ashura (27 December).
And it should never be forgotten that the public display is not and will not be the sum total of discontent with and challenge to the regime. The simple formula of Greens v. Ahmadinejad ignores the strands of pressure upon the President, coming not only from "reformists" but from other politicians, clerics, and even the "conservative" establishment. While the Green Movement has supposedly crumbled after 11 February, more blows have been thrown against Ahmadinejad over his economic plans, the supposed corruption and mismanagement of allies including his First Vice President and his Chief of Staff, and the handling of the post-election crisis.
The image of a revival of direct opposition to the President, even if it is "only" on a university campus, buttresses the political foundations for that assault upon Mahmoud. Thus the significance of the coincidence that the Shahid Beheshti demonstration occurred as former President Hashemi Rafsanjani was resurfacing with the pointed declaration that his 17 July Friday Prayers, which was accompanied by large demonstrations, still contained the solution for this crisis.
Will it do the same this time, as the clock now ticks toward the 1st anniversary of the Presidential election on 12 June? Too soon to tell. However, I have to raise a bit of a smile that yesterday's events came only hours after an analyst for Al Jazeera English, Massoud Parsi, declared:
Wrong, wrong, and wrong again. The Fat Lady (and Mahmoud) have not sung. This is not over.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqqsSVWVa1s&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
UPDATED Iran Video: Protest Against Ahmadinejad at Shahid Beheshti University (10 May)
The Latest from Iran (11 May): Opposition Surfaces
We got a partial but vivid answer yesterday. The Tehran Bus Workers Union, as well as labour activists outside Iran, condemned the hangings. Mir Hossein Mousavi issued a statement on "the Judiciary shift[ing] its position from supporting the oppressed toward supporting authorities and those in power....Is this the...justice you were after?"
And then there was the demonstration at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran. As news leaked that President Ahmadinejad was coming to the campus to speak, the students gathered. They not only gathered; they chanted defiantly. They proclaimed their readiness to sacrifice; they sang songs of unity; they taunted the President. They did so in the face of the security presence and even as the clashes began.
That protest alone resurrected international coverage of Iran as more than a nuclear issue. The 8-minute clip of the chanting and the confrontation with Iran's security troops gave images to reports which had come out in the press, bringing broadcasters like CNN, which had gone to sleep over the post-election developments, to life.
Defenders of the regime will jump in today and claim this was an isolated incident, even as they redouble the loud pronouncements of foreign intrigue and a malevolent opposition. But consider that yesterday's university protest, even if fueled by the news of Sunday's hangings, was not the first one this month. Students at Tehran University also defied the regime crackdown on 1 May, again "welcoming" the President as he tried to seize publicity with a statement from the campus.
That in turn winds the clock back to November-December 2009 when opposition was marked by a series of university demonstrations before, during, or after National Students Day on 7 December. Publicly this kept demands for justice and rights simmering, leading up to the show of resistance against the Government on Ashura (27 December).
And it should never be forgotten that the public display is not and will not be the sum total of discontent with and challenge to the regime. The simple formula of Greens v. Ahmadinejad ignores the strands of pressure upon the President, coming not only from "reformists" but from other politicians, clerics, and even the "conservative" establishment. While the Green Movement has supposedly crumbled after 11 February, more blows have been thrown against Ahmadinejad over his economic plans, the supposed corruption and mismanagement of allies including his First Vice President and his Chief of Staff, and the handling of the post-election crisis.
The image of a revival of direct opposition to the President, even if it is "only" on a university campus, buttresses the political foundations for that assault upon Mahmoud. Thus the significance of the coincidence that the Shahid Beheshti demonstration occurred as former President Hashemi Rafsanjani was resurfacing with the pointed declaration that his 17 July Friday Prayers, which was accompanied by large demonstrations, still contained the solution for this crisis.
Will it do the same this time, as the clock now ticks toward the 1st anniversary of the Presidential election on 12 June? Too soon to tell. However, I have to raise a bit of a smile that yesterday's events came only hours after an analyst for Al Jazeera English, Massoud Parsi, declared:
Several months on, Ahmadinejad's government appears to have emerged stronger and more self-confident than it was before the contentious elections....
The government and security forces have managed to suppress any serious challenge to the government and what looked like an increasingly popular movement has withered away as a result of a brutal crackdown and political gamesmanship.
This has been greatly assisted by foreign plots against the regime, which made it much easier for the government to rally support in the face of external threats.
Wrong, wrong, and wrong again. The Fat Lady (and Mahmoud) have not sung. This is not over.
Reader Comments (20)
Massoud Parsi !?? is he the brother of Trita !! ? :-) hahaha
No, there is no relation. Trita Parsi has one brother, Roozbeh, an academic in Europe. They write articles together sometimes.
This is like your analysises and forecasts before 22nd Bahman, which then you and others scrambled looking for excuses to defend your failed forecast.
What excuses are you going to use if nothing much happens on the anniversy? Security presence? Greens decided to lay low? Greens dressed up as Basijies? Free cakes?
M Ali,
Actually we were quite cautious in our analysis just before 22 Bahman:
"What we now may have, for the first time since November, are the two halves of the challenge to the Government, and possibly the Iranian system, coming together. If the numbers are large, and even more if those multitudes are peaceful, then the Green wave for change will carry more possibilities for the politicians and clerics; conversely, each move by those politicians and clerics will bolster the demonstrators who are risking arrest and condemnation just by stepping foot into the streets and squares of Tehran and other cities on Thursday."
May, not will. And we weren't scrambling at all in our analysis of The Regime "Winning Ugly": the heavy security presence, as well as the opposition's strategic failure at organisation (not numbers, organisation), gave a solid foundation for the evaluation.
No wish fulfillment, no excuses needed.
Scott,
Unlike some other readers who are opposed to your presentations, I at least have been a constant reader for the last few months. I remember the pre-22 Bahman days, there was a sense of a MAJOR PROTEST EVENT. You were even doing count downs, as if something BIG was about to happen. I remember your 4 days to go, 3 days to go, etc.
M.Ali,
Yes, "there was a sense" that it might be major, especially with the high-profile statements of opposition figures and the Government's nervous response.
But "may" is not "will". Analysis is not --- and should never be --- cheerleading or blind prediction.
I have no doubt that I will be counting down to 12 June, given that opposition --- within the "establishment" as well as outside it --- has not been quashed by the regime. But, and call me up if I cross the line, I won't be basing analysis on wishes.
Arash Aramesh at http://InsideIran.com" rel="nofollow">InsideIran.com noted the considerable political risk Mousavi was taking by issuing this condemnation and reported that his statement got a harsh reaction from hardliners in Iran who accused Moussavi of siding with “terrorists” and “bombers.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Moussavi’s remarks surprised the hardliners in the Iranian government. Iran’s hardliners did not expect the leader of the Green Movement to take an anti-government position on such a sensitive topic dealing with the Kurdish minority. This has always been an issue too sensitive to touch by members of the Iranian opposition. Under the current Iranian leadership, there are widespread reports of mistreatment and discrimination against ethnic and religious minoritites.
In addition to voicing his protest to unjust executions, it seems that Moussavi is trying to reach out to all Iranians and to expand his base of supporters beyond major cities such as Tehran and Esfahan. By finding support among Iran’s ethnic minorities such as the Kurds or the Beluchis, the Green Movement can move beyond operating only in major cities and increase pressure on the central government in multiple fronts.
Iran’s hardliners, surprised by Moussavi’s daring move, did not hesitate to paint him as an opportunist. Raja, a pro-Ahmadinejad website, accused Moussavi of trying to find allies from among bombers.
Raja wrote that Moussavi has now shifted from an “anti-government position to an anti-Iranian position.” This comes less than a week after Gholam-Hossein Elham, a member of the Guardian Council, said that he believed Moussavi was a mohareb, or enemy of God. According to Islamic law, the punishment for a mohareb is death.
Moussavi’s criticism of Iran’s judiciary regarding its handling of this case has provided the hardliners with new ammunition to call him a political opportunist and an anti-Iranian figure. This could be dangerous for the leader of the Green Movement, who has many powerful enemies in the government. What remains to be seen is whether or not Moussavi can build a multi-ethnic coalition, one that includes Persian, Azeris, Kurds, and others, centered around the Green Movement to intensify pressure on the Iranian government.
http://www.insideiran.org/media-analysis/moussavi-takes-political-risk-and-condemns-kurdish-executions/" rel="nofollow">http://www.insideiran.org/media-analysis/moussa...
Scott,
You seem to be posting as a guest at your own blog :-) Aren't you registered in Disqus?
[...] (UPDATE: Scott Lucas responds and discussion continues here) [...]
Dear Scott,
You may have asked, regarding the executions of May 9, "But what will the response be inside Iran?" But it seems that you are not interested in reflecting some of the most significant responses from inside Iran in your pages.
Although you are aware of a very significant response to the executions of May 9 from Kurdistan - a call for general strike in Kurdistan, issued by an organization with known capabilities to organize and mobilize the population - you have studiously omitted any reference or mention of this strike in your pages.
This call for general strike - a nonviolent action that is in direct response to and in protest of the executions - is a significant, organic, grassroots action. It is issued from an organization that belongs to the people and not by "leaders" such as Mousavi, which people would never have chosen for leadership had he not been ordained by the current regime. If successful, this action could change the course of the ongoing movement for freedom in Iran. We all understand the significance of a successful general strike in Kurdistan.
Yet, while you conduct pre-event analysis for every "green"-related event day (e.g., 22 Bahman, and now June 12), you have pursued your work in these pages as if a significant mass-movement in reaction to the May 9 atrocity, in the form of a general strike, was not being planned and implemented. Yesterday, as it was being reported elsewhere that leaflets about the May 13 strike were covering Kurdistan, and that the government was bringing in additional repressive forces to dampen the strike's effects, you ignored it.
Your readers, not to mention the people of Kurdistan, deserve an explanation for your careful omission of coverage of these significant events.
By coincidence, I received the first photos of shops closed in Kurdistan moments before reading your comment.
I have posted in today's updates, but I simply did not have any "hard" information on the strike beyond the call of one Communist organisation --- I may well have missed the range of confirmed information that you note, and if so, I apologise.
Rest assured that I am keen to post any confirmed information of today's developments and would be grateful to anyone who can pass on news.
Maria,
Why the negative, accusatory tone? Especially coming from someone familiar with the integrity and thoroughness of the EA editorial team. Why couldn't you have simply noted that, apart from some info posted by 2 readers regarding this strike, that the blog itself has not yet covered it and asked why?
Catherine,
The reason that I asked Scott for explanation of his omission is because this was serious news that was intentionally not covered. That is not acceptable according to any standard of journalism.
Some suggest that a strike is not news until it happens. I beg to differ. Komeleh is emphatically not just "one Communist organization." A call from Komeleh by itself, let alone supported by other well-established organizations, for an all-Kurdistan strike in and of itself is newsworthy.
There was intentional omission of coverage here, but EA is not the only one who has chosen to not go out on a limb by reporting on this significant call. Street Journalist also chose not to report on this.
I give a great deal of respect to Persian2English who chose to see beyond the "color" of the call (because it is red and not green), and took the risk of posting the news that it was.
These are the people in Iran we are talking about. Their grassroots orgs are theirs, whether red or green. It is wrong for Western media to stifle Iranian voices at this sensitive time simply because the West has a fear of "Communism."
Maria
Hi Scott.
We have a few photos up on our site, and some tweets with small updates, but I am on my way out the door to the office. I will send the formal text updates we have in Farsi to P2E for translation.
Maria
Much appreciated. We have sample pics, as you have seen, but reports are still sparse.
I have to put my hand up here --- the problem was not a fear of Communism, it was that I didn't realise the significance of Komeleh in Kurdistan.
Part of my perpetual learning curve, I fear, as a student of the situation in Iran....
Hi Maria,
My objection was to the unnecessarily negative way you asked why the subject of a strike being called hadn't received more coverage here yet. I totally agree with you on its importance. You may have noted that I was the first to alert our readers to the strike announcement by the Kurdistan Committee of the Worker-Communist Party of Iran on Persian2Enlish in my comment:
http://enduringamerica.com/2010/05/11/the-latest-from-iran-11-may-opposition-surfaces/#comment-49715590" rel="nofollow">http://enduringamerica.com/2010/05/11/the-lates...
I, too, was waiting for more news, but having already alerted EA to the announcement of a strike, I knew either other readers or Scott would investigate this further, as they did when more information was available. Here at EA all you need do is ask nicely :-). And thanks for your new contributions on this important development - I'll be checking Persian2English out later for translations.
Asking critical questions is not "not being nice." This is revolution, peoples' lives are at stake and being lost every single bloody day, and there is no time nor tolerance for beating around the bush or playing patsy or waiting around a couple of days to"see what happens."
We at Mission Free Iran translated the call from the Kurdistan Committee of WPI supporting Komeleh's call for strike in Kurdistan. We made it available to the world in 10 different languages.
Mission Free Iran provided the call directly to both Persian2English and EA the minute it was released, and we offered to send a copy of the call to them on official letterhead.
P2E chose to publish, and EA & Street Journalist did not.
I see Scott says that he did not realize the importance of Komeleh, and I believe him, but Scott, that's not good enough! I'm sorry but fair or not, we expect more from you. You could have investigated the organization to learn more about them, or simply asked MFI what their significance was, nd e would have been happy to tell you.
EA has taken on serious responsibilities here, and has developed a position within this community such that if you don't allow your readers to hear important but marginalized voices, people don't believe they are "real." As you know, Iran is full of marginalized voices, and they MUST be heard.
This call for strike was the most significant news coming out of Iran in months; this strike has the potential to change everything, and we needed to support it from outside. This is not about "news," this is about how we support the Ehsans, the Farzads, the Nedas... in their struggle against mass murderers that have been slaughtering Iranians for 31 years. There is no time when critique is MORE important than now.
Maria.
Maria,
If in your first post (11.29) you had also mentioned the reasons for your irritation with Scott/EA that you list above, you wouldn't have heard a peep out of me.
Arshama,
I am not going to get into a discussion of WPI here as that is not central to my original critique. I hope someone from WPI does see your comment and responds to your critique of their organization.
The point of my critique is that whether you read the news of Komeleh's call from Komeleh itself (I did look for it at their website but could not see it there) or from elsewhere, it was fundamentally news that needed to be covered. Most chose not to cover it. That is a MAJOR #FAIL.
Speaking of which, there is still no mass media coverage of today's successful strikes. #CNNFAIL #BBCFAIL etc. etc.
Maria