Sunday
Jun202010
The Latest from Iran (20 June): Remembering the Protests and the Dead
Sunday, June 20, 2010 at 12:52
2000 GMT: Soroush and Khamenei. The website of Abdulkarim Soroush, one of Iran's most prominent intellectuals --- now living in exile --- has published the English translation of Soroush's letter to the Supreme Leader, "Flagging Oratory (and Mind?)".
1950 GMT: Limiting the Remembrance. Pictures and video show a heavy security presence in Tehran's Vanak Square:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6KAX0Oj5oo[/youtube]
1645 GMT: The Karroubi Statement. We've posted lengthy extracts in a separate entry --- with its apparent challenge to the powers of the Supreme Leader, is this a significant step forward for the cleric?
1620 GMT: The Threat to the Reformists. The Islamic Iran Participation Front, responding to the declaration of the Tehran Prosecutor General that the party would be banned and might be broken up, said Abbas Jafari Doulatabi's remarks were "private and without legal value".
1610 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has reportedly declared that he would like to retire, but were he to step down from positions such as head of the Expediency Council, there would be "grave political consequences".
1445 GMT: Today's Hijab Discussion. Member of Parliament Reza Akrami has declared that the President "should ask himself why he protests" against enforcement of the law on hijab.
Ahmadinejad spokesman Ali Akbar Javanfekr did a bit of "don't look at us", saying that the Government is not responsible for the crackdown on "bad hijab" because the security forces are not controlled by the Minister of the Interior.
1250 GMT: One Year Ago. Setareh Sabety reminds us of the words she posted, on the morning of 25 Khordaad (20 June) 2009:
1245 GMT: The Reformist Challenge. The message from member of Parliament Mohammad Reza Tabesh to the Government is direct and to the point: "Stop these radical behaviours."
1200 GMT: Cyber-Shutdown. Parleman News reports Persianblog, Iranicloob, and Blogfa have now been filtered.
1155 GMT: We've posted a special feature, Shadi Sadr's legal analysis of the post-election violation of rights by Iranian authorities.
1055 GMT: Documenting "Neda". Iranian state television has broadcast the "real" story of the killing of Neda Agha Soltan, "Crossroades". It features Abbas Javid Kargar, the Basij militiaman accused of the murder, who claims he was unarmed on that day and played no role in her death.
So who did it? The documentary implies that the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO) was responsible.
Arash Hejazi, the doctor who tried to save Neda's life, has posted his response to the documentary's claims.
And we've re-posted two other documentaries on "Neda" and post-election events, the BBC/PBS/Tehran Bureau production, "An Iranian Martyr", and HBO's "For Neda".
1045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims that activists and students have been detained in Hormozogan Province.
RAHANA reports that eight students have been arrested in Shiraz on charges of "propaganda against the Prophet".
0925 GMT: Political Prisoners and the Labour Front.
The International Transport Workers Federation has denounced the further arrests of members of Sandikaye Kargarane Sherkate Vahed, the Tehran bus workers’ union in Iran.
Saeed Torabian and Reza Shahbi were arrested in June by Iranian security forces and are being held at an unknown location. They join Mansour Osanloo and Ebrahim Madadi, both in prison since 2007, in detention.
In a letter to President Ahmadinejad, ITWF General Secretary David Cockroft said: “We once again reiterate that the carrying out of normal trade union duties is not an arrestable offence and should never be the grounds for the detention of Saeed Torabian, of Mansour Osanloo, or anyone else. We therefore request that you once again intervene in this process, remedy this situation, and also assure the good health and safety of Mansour Osanloo, who remains unjustly imprisoned.”
Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that workers at the Zhaveh reservoir dam in the Kurdish Kamyaran region have gone on strike over non-payment of seven months of back wages, workers yearly bonuses, overtime wages, and dues.
0810 GMT: The Clerics Fight Back? Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has said that the distance between religion and revolutionary principles is the reason for the weakness of Iran's judiciary.
The more intriguing report, however, is in Rah-e-Sabz. The website claims that Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami, and Hassan Khomeini have all been on the telephone with Grand Ayatollah Sanei: these attacks were not a rebellion of unorganised people but a planned assault.
0800 GMT: The Battle Within (cont.). The latest jab of Keyhan, the "hard-line" newspaper, at the Government is a query about Ahmadinejad's chief aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai: why did he, in one of his many offices, give money to a rich artist?
0720 GMT: The Battle Within. The opposition's commemorations and the execution of "terrorists" has not entirely taken the headline heat off the President. Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesman for the Guardian Council, has told Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that he cannot interfere in the affairs of other regime institutions.
0630 GMT: Remembering 25 Khordaad. Zahra Rahnavard has issued a statement reflecting on the protests of 20 June 2009:
"Today the Green Movement owes its place to the resistance of women, who along with their spouses and children, and as a group of leaders on the front lines have had a unique presence. The movement should realize that achieving freedom and democracy without the presence of noble women and without considering and implementation of the demands to eliminate discrimination and violence that women have always asked will not be possible.”
0625 GMT: Karroubi on the Vote and the Supreme Leader. Saham News, the website of Mehdi Karroubi, has published the cleric's latest statement. Karroubi opens:
This declaration of defiance from 12 June 2009 to the present is followed by thoughts about the recent pro-regime attacks on senior clerics, used by Karroubi to consider "the powers of the Supreme Leader". In other words --- if I'm reading this right --- if Ayatollah Khameni is the ultimate defender of the Islamic Republic, why is he not defending its leading religious figures and its people?
0600 GMT: Today is likely to be dominated by remembrance of last year's mass demonstration, eight days after the Presidential election and a day after the Supreme Leader tried to close off debate, and those who died.
For many, Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-0ld woman killed by a Basij militia gunshot, became the symbol of tragedy and hope, and outside Iran, her name remains a beacon. (The #4Neda hashtag may be one of the most prominent on Twitter today.)
Inside Iran, however, there will be memorials for all those killed on 20 June and in the days after the election. It is reported that four Tehran universities are holding services, and there is chatter of events across the country.
The Iranian Government, however, has made a late bid to take over the headlines by adding another death: this morning it executed Abdolmalek Rigi, the leader of the Baluch insurgent Jundullah organisation.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi0IMc1uXMY&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]
1950 GMT: Limiting the Remembrance. Pictures and video show a heavy security presence in Tehran's Vanak Square:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6KAX0Oj5oo[/youtube]
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi Takes on the Supreme Leader (20 June)
NEW Iran Special: Legal Analysis of Post-Election Violations of Rights (Shadi Sadr)
NEW Iran Video, One Year On: The “Neda” Documentaries
Iran: Working Together? The Women’s Movement & The Greens (Kakaee)
Iran Analysis: Why the 2009 Election is Not Legitimate (Ansari)
The Latest from Iran (19 June): How Does Mahmoud Respond?
1645 GMT: The Karroubi Statement. We've posted lengthy extracts in a separate entry --- with its apparent challenge to the powers of the Supreme Leader, is this a significant step forward for the cleric?
1620 GMT: The Threat to the Reformists. The Islamic Iran Participation Front, responding to the declaration of the Tehran Prosecutor General that the party would be banned and might be broken up, said Abbas Jafari Doulatabi's remarks were "private and without legal value".
1610 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has reportedly declared that he would like to retire, but were he to step down from positions such as head of the Expediency Council, there would be "grave political consequences".
1445 GMT: Today's Hijab Discussion. Member of Parliament Reza Akrami has declared that the President "should ask himself why he protests" against enforcement of the law on hijab.
Ahmadinejad spokesman Ali Akbar Javanfekr did a bit of "don't look at us", saying that the Government is not responsible for the crackdown on "bad hijab" because the security forces are not controlled by the Minister of the Interior.
1250 GMT: One Year Ago. Setareh Sabety reminds us of the words she posted, on the morning of 25 Khordaad (20 June) 2009:
I pray, even though an atheist, I pray that today this all important day, courage and justice is triumphant and that there will be no blood shed. I pray that no mother has to hear bad news, no woman is martyred and no young man beaten or arrested. I pray that these people whom I love, who are risking their lives with incredible courage for me and you, are not harmed and that their silent, persistent message of the basic need for freedom and democracy wins the day.
1245 GMT: The Reformist Challenge. The message from member of Parliament Mohammad Reza Tabesh to the Government is direct and to the point: "Stop these radical behaviours."
1200 GMT: Cyber-Shutdown. Parleman News reports Persianblog, Iranicloob, and Blogfa have now been filtered.
1155 GMT: We've posted a special feature, Shadi Sadr's legal analysis of the post-election violation of rights by Iranian authorities.
1055 GMT: Documenting "Neda". Iranian state television has broadcast the "real" story of the killing of Neda Agha Soltan, "Crossroades". It features Abbas Javid Kargar, the Basij militiaman accused of the murder, who claims he was unarmed on that day and played no role in her death.
So who did it? The documentary implies that the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO) was responsible.
Arash Hejazi, the doctor who tried to save Neda's life, has posted his response to the documentary's claims.
And we've re-posted two other documentaries on "Neda" and post-election events, the BBC/PBS/Tehran Bureau production, "An Iranian Martyr", and HBO's "For Neda".
1045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran claims that activists and students have been detained in Hormozogan Province.
RAHANA reports that eight students have been arrested in Shiraz on charges of "propaganda against the Prophet".
0925 GMT: Political Prisoners and the Labour Front.
The International Transport Workers Federation has denounced the further arrests of members of Sandikaye Kargarane Sherkate Vahed, the Tehran bus workers’ union in Iran.
Saeed Torabian and Reza Shahbi were arrested in June by Iranian security forces and are being held at an unknown location. They join Mansour Osanloo and Ebrahim Madadi, both in prison since 2007, in detention.
In a letter to President Ahmadinejad, ITWF General Secretary David Cockroft said: “We once again reiterate that the carrying out of normal trade union duties is not an arrestable offence and should never be the grounds for the detention of Saeed Torabian, of Mansour Osanloo, or anyone else. We therefore request that you once again intervene in this process, remedy this situation, and also assure the good health and safety of Mansour Osanloo, who remains unjustly imprisoned.”
Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that workers at the Zhaveh reservoir dam in the Kurdish Kamyaran region have gone on strike over non-payment of seven months of back wages, workers yearly bonuses, overtime wages, and dues.
0810 GMT: The Clerics Fight Back? Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has said that the distance between religion and revolutionary principles is the reason for the weakness of Iran's judiciary.
The more intriguing report, however, is in Rah-e-Sabz. The website claims that Hashemi Rafsanjani, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami, and Hassan Khomeini have all been on the telephone with Grand Ayatollah Sanei: these attacks were not a rebellion of unorganised people but a planned assault.
0800 GMT: The Battle Within (cont.). The latest jab of Keyhan, the "hard-line" newspaper, at the Government is a query about Ahmadinejad's chief aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai: why did he, in one of his many offices, give money to a rich artist?
0720 GMT: The Battle Within. The opposition's commemorations and the execution of "terrorists" has not entirely taken the headline heat off the President. Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesman for the Guardian Council, has told Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that he cannot interfere in the affairs of other regime institutions.
0630 GMT: Remembering 25 Khordaad. Zahra Rahnavard has issued a statement reflecting on the protests of 20 June 2009:
"Today the Green Movement owes its place to the resistance of women, who along with their spouses and children, and as a group of leaders on the front lines have had a unique presence. The movement should realize that achieving freedom and democracy without the presence of noble women and without considering and implementation of the demands to eliminate discrimination and violence that women have always asked will not be possible.”
0625 GMT: Karroubi on the Vote and the Supreme Leader. Saham News, the website of Mehdi Karroubi, has published the cleric's latest statement. Karroubi opens:
One year after the 10th Presidential election, considering what they did with your votes and the blood that was shed for regaining your rights, once again firmly and honestly, I declare that I am standing on my promise with you to the end of this path and I am ready to debate with anyone who would represent the ruling powers.
The vote that they stole from you and the right that was brutally denied from you is a shame that cannot be covered in anyway. Such that after one year despite all the pressure and intimidations not only your rightful demands have not been forgotten but also this seek for change has penetrated in various layers of the society based on an extensive social network and this social extent is not something that can be eliminated by repressions, intimidations, arrests and staged trials.
This declaration of defiance from 12 June 2009 to the present is followed by thoughts about the recent pro-regime attacks on senior clerics, used by Karroubi to consider "the powers of the Supreme Leader". In other words --- if I'm reading this right --- if Ayatollah Khameni is the ultimate defender of the Islamic Republic, why is he not defending its leading religious figures and its people?
0600 GMT: Today is likely to be dominated by remembrance of last year's mass demonstration, eight days after the Presidential election and a day after the Supreme Leader tried to close off debate, and those who died.
For many, Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-0ld woman killed by a Basij militia gunshot, became the symbol of tragedy and hope, and outside Iran, her name remains a beacon. (The #4Neda hashtag may be one of the most prominent on Twitter today.)
Inside Iran, however, there will be memorials for all those killed on 20 June and in the days after the election. It is reported that four Tehran universities are holding services, and there is chatter of events across the country.
The Iranian Government, however, has made a late bid to take over the headlines by adding another death: this morning it executed Abdolmalek Rigi, the leader of the Baluch insurgent Jundullah organisation.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi0IMc1uXMY&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]
tagged 25 Khordaad, Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, Abbas Javid Kargar, Abdolmalek Rigi, Abdulkarim Soroush, Arash Hejazi, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, BBC, Blogfa, David Cockroft, Ebrahim Madadi, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, Guardian Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Home Box Office, Human Rights Activists News Agency, International Transport Workers Federation, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Iranicloob, Islamic Iran Participation Front, Jundullah, Keyhan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mansour Osanloo, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Reza Tabesh, Mujahedin-e-Khalq, Neda Agha Soltan, Parleman News, Persianblog, Peyke Iran, Public Broadcasting Service, Reza Akrami, Reza Shahbi, Saeed Torabian, Saham News, Sandikaye Kargarane Sherkate Vahed, Setareh Sabety, Shadi Sadr, Tehran Bureau, Tehran Bus Workers Union in Middle East & Iran
25 Khordaad, Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi, Abbas Javid Kargar, Abdolmalek Rigi, Abdulkarim Soroush, Arash Hejazi, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, BBC, Blogfa, David Cockroft, Ebrahim Madadi, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, Guardian Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Home Box Office, Human Rights Activists News Agency, International Transport Workers Federation, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Iranicloob, Islamic Iran Participation Front, Jundullah, Keyhan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mansour Osanloo, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Reza Tabesh, Mujahedin-e-Khalq, Neda Agha Soltan, Parleman News, Persianblog, Peyke Iran, Public Broadcasting Service, Reza Akrami, Reza Shahbi, Saeed Torabian, Saham News, Sandikaye Kargarane Sherkate Vahed, Setareh Sabety, Shadi Sadr, Tehran Bureau, Tehran Bus Workers Union in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (24)
[...] The Latest from Iran (20 June): Remembering the Protests and the … [...]
The Party's Over
Iran bans political activity of reformist parties
The two top reformist Iranian parties, Islamic Iran Participation Front and Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution Organization are banned from political activity as the judiciary confirmed that they have cancelled their permit for political activity. ..... Tehran Prosecutor also added that the Commission's request to dissolve the two parties has been sent to the Revolutionary Court.
More: http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/06/iran-bans-political-activ.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/06/iran-bans...
Caricaturists Watch: Nikahang Kowsar receives Mana Neyestani's 2010 Courage award on his behalf http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-pPlbGKpTg&feature=youtu.be&a" rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-pPlbGKpTg&feat...
Arahama,
Is this award also for having had the courage to poke fun at Mousavi? :-)
http://www.rferl.org/content/Cartoon_Mocking_Musavi_Pulled_From_Reformist_Website/2074972.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.rferl.org/content/Cartoon_Mocking_Mu...
Seriously, though, he certainly deserves it!
Remembering another generation's death
An Iranian woman who is an open supporter of Mir-Hossein Mousavi has written a sharp letter in response to Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s recent interview with the Kaleme website where he discussed the late Imam Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The letter was published by Gooya News and translated by http://Persian2English.com" rel="nofollow">Persian2English.com
http://persian2english.com/?p=12026" rel="nofollow">http://persian2english.com/?p=12026
Catherine,
The caption I copied from Twitter is somewhat misreading, in fact Mana Neyestani got the prize. But their fate is very similar: Nikahang was imprisoned for drawing a crocodile (Mesbah / Temsah Yazdi) and Mana for a cockroach. As Kowsar said, In Iran there is freedom of speech, but not after speech ;-)
To all Chris de Burgh fans (very popular in Iran). He has dedicated his new song "People of The World" to Neda, available for download: http://www.cdeb.com/cdebnew/potw.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.cdeb.com/cdebnew/potw.html
Arshama
RE the documentaries about Neda - is this British one different from the others?
For the love of Neda: Iran angered by new film
A year after footage of Neda Agha-Soltan's death in Tehran shocked the world, her mother tells Emily Dugan why she won't be cowed by threats.
... It is a sign of this power that President Ahmadinejad's government has gone such lengths to jam satellite broadcasts of a new British-made documentary For Neda. So concerned were the Iranian authorities about the documentary's impact that they have released their own film – which blames the resistance movement outside Iran for Neda's death. Her family reportedly came under strong pressure to co-operate with the official version but refused. They did, however, co-operate with the British documentary that depicts her death and the impact it has had on her family, on Iran and around the world.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/for-the-love-of-neda-iran-angered-by-new-film-2005435.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-...
More bloody videos
GVF claims this one shows the slain nephew of opposition Green Movement leader Mir Hossein Mousavi just minutes after he was assassinated by security forces during the Ashura protests on 27 December 2009.
http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jun/19/2090" rel="nofollow">http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2010/jun/1...
I don't know what they're saying, but the clip never shows his face.
Catherine,
The Independent article is referring to the Home Box Office documentary, "For Neda", now posted in a separate entry with last autumn's "An Iranian Martyr".
Scott
Expats Watch (Tehrangeles Style)
NIAC has a funny entry on "Jersey Shore" etc.: Silly Iranians, we were told by Hollywood, you have three options only: terrorists, savages, or party animals. Take your pick. http://niacinsight.com/2010/06/17/will-the-real-iranians-please-stand-up/" rel="nofollow">http://niacinsight.com/2010/06/17/will-the-real...
Party animal here ;-)
Remembering the Dead by Name
Martyrs of the Green Movement
Names of 110 killed in political violence over the past year.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/06/martyrs-of-the-green-movement.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranb...
RE 0625 GMT: Karroubi on the Vote and the Supreme Leader. Saham News, the website of Mehdi Karroubi, has published the cleric’s latest statement.
More in English from Radio Zamaneh:
Iranian opposition leader, Mehdi Karroubi sharply criticized “the powers assumed by the Supreme Leader” and added: “Even God does not assume such rights for itself in relationship to its creatures.”
http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/06/opposition-leader-critici-2.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/06/oppositio...
Victims Remembrance
Thousands attend memorial of green student protester Mostafa Ghanian in Mashhad (Imam Reza mausoleum) http://www.payvand.com/news/10/jun/1176.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.payvand.com/news/10/jun/1176.html
Rouhash shaad, zendeh baad mellate ghayoure Mashhad
I wonder if the reason why we haven't heard from Samuel lately is because he's so busy facilitating the Irrigation systems maker Tad.Co to become the first Iranian company to open an office in Cuba?
http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20100620-223021.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1St...
Prison Letters
Ayatollah Kazemeini Boroujerdi, imprisoned because favourising a secular state, has asked in an open letter the authorities how they dare to interfere in foreign countries politics, while they do not allow any independent opinion in the country, even not independent religious thoughts. http://iranhrnews.com/?p=5496" rel="nofollow">http://iranhrnews.com/?p=5496
"I who am nearly paralyzed and blind, declare again my deep disgust for any kind of religion, which causes problems to the people, ruins society and embitters the deprived and helpless citizen's lives."
Arshama
"I who am nearly paralyzed and blind, declare again my deep disgust for any kind of religion, which causes problems to the people, ruins society and embitters the deprived and helpless citizen's lives."
Wonderful statement ! I think he will become as soon as our Nelson Mandela who was in jail for years , perhaps he could advise people from inside of prison , as did it Mandela to run the opposition and its strategy !
And for the first part of the sentence " I, who am nearly paralyzed and blind ..", my god , my heart is full of tears , really it's inhuman, poor man !
"Gates: Sanctions right to keep 'military dictatorship' of Iran from going nuclear."
Gates was asked on "Fox News Sunday" about whether the latest round of United Nations sanctions and the new sanctions announced last week by the Treasury Department would weaken Tehran's will to develop its nuclear program.
"What we've seen is a change in the nature of the regime in Tehran over the past 18 months or so," Gates said. "You have a much narrower based government in Tehran now. Many of the religious figures are being set aside. As Secretary Clinton has said, they appear to be moving more in the direction of a military dictatorship. Khamenei is leaning on a smaller and smaller group of advisors."
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/104343-gates-sanctions-right-track-to-keep-military-dictatorship-of-iran-from-going-nuclear" rel="nofollow">http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/new...
"In the meantime, you have an illegitimate election that has divided the country. So I think adding economic pressures on top of that, and particularly targeted economic pressures, has real potential."
WitteKr,
It looks like the corner of the Obama admin that speaks through Secr. Gates is now, in yet another one of many policy shifts towards Iran since Obama's inauguration, going for regime change instead of engagement.
Engagement: The regime seems fairly stable in the short to medium term and so presents Washington with an ongoing political reality that must be engaged rather than ignored.
Regime change: The regime is actually fairly unstable in the short to medium term because its legitimacy has been fatally undermined by the post-election crackdown and the economy is in tatters, so there is no need to invest in (i.e. waste time with) lengthy negotiations and grand bargains because just a few more hard pushes in the form of multilateral and unilateral sanctions will topple it.
Thing is, no one knows who will step in if that happens (my guess is there would be at least an attempt at an outright, upfront military coup); and even if Reformists and GM types were to come to power, Iran’s nuclear enrichment program would most certainly remain in place and would still need to be addressed. Add to this that, as we all know by now, "regime change" is anything but a long term regional strategy, AND does illegitimacy with large sectors of the population plus a struggling economy necessarily make an increasingly militaristic regime unstable?
Ange,
I was thinking that IRGC+Bassij would make an attempt at a military coup when I wrote that post, and that they would be the first ones to try. I think it would take more time for f Raf+GM to organise such an attempt with the backing of the army, and then we'd be looking at civil war. Those in favour of regime change might find this an even better outcome: while the civil was lasts it's goodbye support for terrorist groups, goodbye influence over neighbourd in region, goodbye bothering about Israel or Palestinians; hello chance to provide military support for the side they want to win.
The nuclear program I said would still remain in place is, until proven otherwise, in fact and practice (but probably not in intention) the current peaceful one because to date the IAEA has not detected a single bit of enriched uranium diverted to military use. And the US has not been able to accept the status quo so far, so they'd still feel they need to "address" the issue.
RE the article Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites" - see this analysis, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/06/it-seems-like-old-times-change-of-tune-or-same-old-song.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranb...
WitteKr,
I am so deeply disappointed by the contradictory and seemingly strategy-less foreign policy of the Obama admin that I've stopped paying attention.
How many different Afghanistan strategies have we had so far, from the Dutch 3-D policy (Diplomacy, Development, Defence) the US so lavishly praised and adopted in the Afghanistan Conference of March 2009 to the upcoming offensive that's not an offensive in Kandahar? Then there's the bridge to nowhere Iran policy:"So guys, Happy New Year and let's engage, Oops - not with the murderers of Neda, Well if you take this deal we know will never go down back home..., No? Good - we wanted sanctions all along anyway, Pssst! Turkey and Brazil - you go get this done for us, Deal, shmeal! - sanctions first, talk later ..... you DO still want to talk don't you?, Hey - where did that Green Movement go, we need to kiss up to them too!"
(Same thing with Israel, btw: now we love you, now we don't.)
Sorry, I get very frustrated because I thought this administration was going to be pro-active instead of re-active and develop pragmatic, long-term regional strategies. I don't see that happening. And China and Russia are nobody's "allies".
Please someone prove to me that I'm totally wrong about what I see as a contradictory and make-it-up-as-you-go US foreign policy in the Middle East, Central Asia and elsewhere! Like WitteKr, I'm desperate to believe otherwise :-).
RE "A serious strategic communications campaign should try to convince Palestinians and Arabs that the U.S. has finally delivered something of substance on an issue they care about."
I don't think there's anyone in the region who will buy that. In their eyes, Turkey is the one who "delivered" by acting as a catalyst for easing the blockade and whatever other developments might still come out of this. Everyone else including Iran is just jumping on the bandwagon.
WitteKr,
Here's a golden nugget from yesterday's edition of State of the Union (CNN).
Host Candy CROWLEY: So, basically, we have 94,000 U.S. troops, with more coming, in Afghanistan on a mission that hasn't been clearly defined, with any number of problems, including the drug trade, neighboring Pakistan. ... And I wanted to read you something from Time magazine on that score.
"Nine out of 10 Afghan enlisted recruits can't read a rifle- instruction manual or drive a car, according to NATO trainers. The officer's corps is fractured by rivalries. Commanders routinely steal their enlisted men's salaries. Soldiers shake down civilians at road checkpoints and sell off their own American-supplied boots, blankets and guns at the bazaar, sometimes to the Taliban. Afghans, not surprisingly, run when they see the army coming. Recruits tend to go AWOL after their first leave, while one-quarter of those who stay in the service are blitzed on hashish or heroin, according to an internal survey carried out by the Afghan National Army."
Senator Dianne FEINSTEIN** : Well, Candy, that's true. Now, that's the bad side of it. There also is a good side of it. I mean, I am told that they are on track to meet their training numbers.
** She is chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence with oversight responsibility for the 16 civilian and military agencies and departments that make up the U.S. Intelligence Community.
Catherine
I have heard in VOA, that an iranian inside the country, who was interviewed by Setareh Derakhshesh, saying that, as soon as, we will have this war within the "Nezam" ( Regime leading the country); he was not really explicit, but I concluded that there will be an uprising of a part of sepah against the other part and in my mind it was the fellows of Raf against the part obeying AN&KH. I think, it won't last very long this situation , if it happens before being bombed by Israel ; or both of them ( teh two situations) could happen in the same time , taken time will be shorter !
@ANGE PARIS
"My guess is , the foreign countries are preparing a war against Iran"
Of course -- BUT that does not mean that they are preparing to START a war against Iran. There is a big difference between the two situations.
Western countries are always "preparing" for wars - the US Navy is constantly exercising and planning for all sorts of eventualities. A replacement US carrier group has just arrived in the Persian Gulf - and there has been much buzz about it's practising/exercising off the Mediterranean coast of Israel while on its way to the Gulf, using Israeli resources. But it is pretty much a standard thing. Obviously this time they have been exercising the situation of missile attacks from Iran and it's allies. I would hope so.
Barry
Ange,
I was wondering what you think about this assertion in the Delkhasteh article you posted yesterday, in particular the bit about the 1988 massacres:
".. Karubi and Musavi ... are trapped in their reformist beliefs, but much more importantly, by their past. It might be that they know that if the regime does collapse, they will be called to account for many actions that closed down the democratic possibilities of the 1979 revolution and made it into what we see today. There is compelling information, for example, about Karubi's role in clandestine agreements to delay the release of American embassy hostages until after Reagan's election, or about the harsh forms of oppression meted out during Musavi's premiership, most notably the massacre of over three thousand prisoners in 1988."