The Latest from Iran (14 July): Getting to the Point

1730 GMT: We have posted a separate entry which explains everything about the Shahram Amiri nuclear scientist defection/abduction case...in a single cartoon.

1720 GMT: Back to the Bazaar. Khabar Online maintains the impression that the conflict over the bazaars is far from over. The website post one item that the "Bazaari Guilds Council in crisis" and another that some vendors do not accept the wishes of their representatives --- presumably a reference to the claimed deal for a 15% tax increase --- and have even managed to cut off power in some parts of the Bazaar.

NEW Iran: Understanding That Nuclear Scientist/Abduction Case (All It Takes is 1 Cartoon)
NEW Iran Through the Looking Glass: “Never Judge Enduring America by Its Cover”
Iran Analysis: Grand Ayatollah Golpayegani Criticises Supreme Leader? (and What Could It Mean?)
The Latest from Iran (13 July): Back to Politics?

1718 GMT: You Know, Vacations Do Cost Money. Claim of the day in the Iranian media via a member of Parliament's National Security Commission: the extra two holidays this week, allegedly because of high temperatures, have meant a $4 billion loss to Iran's economy.

1715 GMT: Swallowing the Bazaar? The new website Green Correspondents posts an analysis asserting that the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps are seeking to take over the bazaar, cutting off its "traditional relationships".

1415 GMT: Picture of the Day (Add Your Caption). The Supreme Leader before military officers on Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Day.



1400 GMT: Grounding Iran's Flights? After confirmation that BP has stopped supplying fuel air to Iran Air at Hamburg Airport in Germany, Mohammad Reza Rajabi, Iran Air's head in Hamburg, has admitted, "Finding a substitute for BP to provide Iranian passenger planes with fuel in Hamburg airport will take some time."

1335 GMT: Khabar Online's Punches of the Day. And now, courtesy of our friends at Khabar Online (did we mention that the website is linked to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani?), the first of a regular feature on its jabs at President Ahmadinejad.

As the anniversary of the death in Kahrizak Prison of Mohsen Ruholamini approaches, the website features his father, Abdolhossein Ruholamini, a key advisor to former Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, who repeats his call for Presidential advisor Saeed Mortazavi to "be tried as promised and announced".

And, in the business section, it appears that 110 Mercedes vehicles for Ahmadinejad and the Foreign Ministry have been imported without paying the required taxes.

1035 GMT: Break Time. Apologies that updates are sporadic today, as I move between seminars and a plenary lecture this afternoon.

Thanks to all for keeping the news flowing.

1030 GMT: The Battle Within. A (relatively) gentler statement from key MP and Ahmadinejad critic Ali Motahhari: the relationship between govt and Majlis is critical --- if it is positive, it helps to overcome mistakes.

1025 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Khabar Online claims that extra holidays did not ease blackouts, with only a 10% reduction in consumption of electricity.

0820 GMT: Parliament (and a Cleric) v. President: MP Mohammad Ali Karimi comments, "Imam Khomeini believed that the parliament is at the heart of Islamic republic. But the government is not respecting the parliament’s approved laws." Karimi, referring to the President, asserted, "By dreaming we can not manage the country, let alone the world."

0810 GMT: Culture Corner. An EA correspondent checks in with the hot topic for chatter amongst young Iranians. Bazaar strike? Economic issues? The postponement of the President's trip to Lebanon?

No. It's this: "The Iranian Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has not granted a license to any Iranian expatriate pop singers living in Los Angeles, the culture minister said on Monday."

0800 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Lawmakers have lodged a motion for impeachment against Minister of Agriculture Sadeq Khalilian.

The specific grievance is dissatisfaction with excessive imports of food products. The broader allegation is Khalilian's lack of skill.

0625 GMT: We begin this morning with a bit of a diversion, noting in an analysis how the tangled covering post-election Iran turned EA into a US "neo-conservative" on the opposition website Rah-e-Sabz.

Most of our colleagues in the international mainstream press begin with a bit of a diversion, devoting their attention to the return of scientist Shahram Amiri --- did he defect? was he kidnapped? --- from the US to Iran.

Meanwhile...

Tuesday's Top Quote

Reformist MP Dariush Ghanbar comments on recent political and economic developments by noting the Supreme Leader's of this Iranian year as a "Year of Productivity": "Is this the year of extra work or extra holidays?"

Extra Holidays, Well, Strikes Actually

We had reported yesterday that the Tehran Bazaar was almost completely closed as the supposed deal between the Government and Bazaaris apparently fell through.

It appears that was also the case in Tabriz.

Comments

[Arshama]

Privatisation Watch

Government sells 18% stake in Iran Khodro (Saipa), biggest car company:
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093356140" rel="nofollow">http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?Story...

[Catherine]

RE 0810 GMT: Culture Corner.

On the other hand, there's now this for the fans:
Music Podcast - The Iran Sound From Way Out: Episode 1
A new music program from RFE/RL with the best of Iran's underground music scene. http://www.rferl.org/archive/Music_Podcast/latest/3227/3227.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.rferl.org/archive/Music_Podcast/late...

[Catherine]

RE 1025 GMT: Electricity Squeeze. Khabar Online claims that extra holidays did not ease blackouts, with only a 10% reduction in consumption of electricity.

The Tehran Times Press Review for yesterday includes these headlines:
HAMSHAHRI: Economic stagnation to intensify as industries and producing centers are suffering from power outages

JAM-E JAM: Serious impact of energy consumption in two-day vocations announced by the government
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=222921" rel="nofollow">http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=...

[Catherine]

Dubai Curbs Iran Trade Under Sanctions
Business with Iran at CP World, a freight forwarder in Dubai, has fallen 20 percent in the last two months and director Abhijit Pradhan says it may drop further as the emirate cracks down on trade with the Islamic Republic.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-13/dubai-curbs-iran-trade-under-sanctions-regime-hurting-business.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-13/dub...

[Catherine]

Interview with an Iranian refugee family in Turkey: “We see nothing but unemployment, poverty, and illness”
http://persian2english.com/?p=12741" rel="nofollow">http://persian2english.com/?p=12741

[Catherine]

International group urges action against Iran
Jerusalem (CNN) -- Citing what its author called "a clear and present danger," a report compiled by an international group and released Tuesday calls on individual countries to use their own sanctions to pressure Iran on human rights and international terrorism issues.

The Responsibility to Prevent Coalition -- an independent group that describes itself as "an international consortium of 100 leading scholars, jurists, parliamentarians, government leaders, and Iranian human rights activists" -- held a press conference in Jerusalem to release its 200-page report on the Iranian regime.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/07/13/israel.iran.report/?fbid=dsaCGTfevp0" rel="nofollow">http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/07/13/i...

[Arshama]

Haircut Watch

No more “Typhus,” “Metal,” “Pineapple," and “Electric Shock", but Tabriz or Shiraz: http://www.rferl.org/content/Approved_Hairstyles_To_Be_Named_After_Iranian_Cities_/2099409.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.rferl.org/content/Approved_Hairstyle...

[Bozorg]

"Khabar Online maintains the impression that the conflict over the bazaars is far from over."

The impression? Sometimes you're guarded to a fault, Scott.

[ScottLucas11]

Bozorg,

Point taken --- but I've been "in the dark" news-wise all day because of academic duties and didn't want to find out suddenly that a deal had been struck and everyone was now happy and peaceful....

S.

[Bozorg]

I hear that, Scott. Best to be overly cautious.

[Bozorg]

As a complete aside...Iran's Asian cup campaign begins in January...good excuse to celebrate (protest?) in the streets with every win.

[Verde_e]

Rumour of the day:

http://www.rahesabz.net/story/19393/" rel="nofollow">http://www.rahesabz.net/story/19393/

Jaras claims that Hossein Allahkaram, a leader of Ansar-e Hezbollah, has said in a private meeting of the Ansar that Mojtaba Khamenei (SL’s second son) is a corrupt person and is bypassing the Leader and doing whatever he wants.
Allahkaram is supposed to have said: we are followers of the Leader only. We are not supposed to be the servants, maids and thugs of Mojtaba! Mojataba, without first coordinating with the Leader, gives out orders, has meeting with security officials and sets strategies and is in effect acting as the country’s leader and this is not acceptable to us. The country does not have two leaders. It has one leader.

[Arshama]

Mr Verde,

Thank you for posting this rumour. I read it today, but wondered about its seriousness. What is your opinion?

Arshama

[Verde_e]

Arshama,

Re: Allahkaram criticism of Mojtaba Khamenei

As you know there are no other reports yet about this criticism (some other sites have reported it, but all refer to the Jaras report). And we know there are problems with Jatas (http://enduringamerica.com/2010/07/14/iran-through-the-looking-glass-how-an-opposition-website-turned-enduring-america-neoconservative/" rel="nofollow">http://enduringamerica.com/2010/07/14/iran-thro...).

However I think one needs to distinguish between Jaras reports (most of which turn out to be accurate) and their opinion pieces (some of which are like the one Scott posted about earlier today). Jaras probably has very good sources within the regime.

As you know there are persistent rumours that Mojtaba Khamenei is behind many of the current problems; that together with Taeb they organized the brutal crackdown last summer.

As for Allahkaram, I could believe that he may be upset with things. He used to be the IR’s chief thug for a long time (he was promoted to a diplomatic post a few years ago), but now (especially since the elections) there are probably many more pretenders to that position. And his skills are probably not that unique within the regime anymore.

There could also be a general disquiet within even loyal regime ranks (people like Nourizad) about the problems that the regime has created for itself.

It could be that this is part of the reformist psych warfare against Khamenei. Or it could be that as a result of it all people like Allahkaram see their positions in jeopardy or the regime in danger and are starting to voice their discomfort.

The longer the regime crisis lasts (and we know the crisis is only getting worse), the more problems the regime will face. Remember Khamenei last winter ordering the protestors to “pull over” (bekeshid kenar!)?

Regards,
Verde

[Arshama]

Hi Verde,

Thank you for your assessments and speculations about Allahkram's alleged critique.
I agree with you on the different qualities of Jaras reports and opinion pieces, but I found this news attack on EA, Tehran Bureau and VoA really disgusting. We need fair discussions on Iran's future, not a "Sabzullah" (convincing expression from Khodnevis) or Green "Guardian Council". As Jaras has no comment section, I'm obliged to post my criticism here.

But back to our subject, to which I would like to add yet another speculation: whichever of your explanations we accept, Allahkaram is essentially attacking the SL (if this news is true), not defending him, as it may appear at first sight. Even without the rumours following the heckling of Hassan Khomeini's speech, claiming that they were approved by the SL, who wanted to eliminate this possible candidate for leadership in favour of his son Mojtaba, attacking the latter is not really a sign of devotion to his father.

Could it be that AN encouraged Allahkaram to start this attack, as a reaction to the SL's refusal in the Free Universities case? After all Allahkaram attacked Qalibaf, one of AN's other opponents, in May http://tinyurl.com/2eqygep" rel="nofollow">http://tinyurl.com/2eqygep
According to Khabar Online, AN is preparing a complaint against Tehran's city council, led by Qalibaf.

All of this under the reserve that this news is genuine...

Arshama

[Baz]

Arshama

It has been said that this entire "thing" in Iran is all about positioning for the ultimate replacement of Khamenei ( when he dies, loses capability, etc).

So perhaps this is part of the positioning. Allahkaram say that he/they only follow one "leader" - although he implies that is Khamenei , he doesn't actually say so. Perhaps this is meant to say that Khamenei's son is not a suitable replacement for the leader (but someone else is?)

All speculation, of course. --- but very interesting.

Barry

[Bozorg]

I've noticed a "sabzullah" mentality among many reformist Greens, especially on Tweeter. They shut down any criticism of Mousavi or suggestions for expediting opposition activity, constantly urging uending "patience." And they tar and feather all Iranian expatriates as irrelevant and try to muzzle them.

I think it's gotten so bad that some of Zahnavard's remarks in a recent Rooz interview were meant to address this problem. She said that Green includes everyone (except MKO).

Iranians don't want to trade one group of bullies for another, not least of all smiley-faced fundamentalists.

[Catherine]

Hi Nemo,
Yes, I also thought the Responsibility to Prevent Coalition was a very strange bunch of bedfellows (neocon "military option" types and human rights defenders), and since I'd never heard of them before I wanted to make their existence known here, too.

[Arshama]

@ 1415 GMT: Picture of the Day (Add Your Caption)

Stop talking! I'm the boss!

[Arshama]

Bozorg,

The most heavy attacks against Iranian expats are posted on Khodnevis, especially against cartoonist Nikahang Kowsar after his debated cartoon about Mousavi, writing down his 300th statement. Fortunately both sides are free to comment, and the operators of Khodnevis should be praised for offering such a platform for open debate.

After 31 years of mutual mistrust between Iranians, promoted by the IR on purpose, it probably will take some time to reinstall a common ground for debate, but there is no other choice than going through this difficult process of opinion-forming, constantly oppressed in Iran.
After all the reformists were part of this system, claiming to represent the progressive part of Iranian society, while eliminating those 5 million expats, parts of whom are probably a bit more progressive ;-)

As you said: "Iranians don't want to trade one group of bullies for another, not least of all smiley-faced fundamentalists."

Arshama

[Catherine]

I know what someone else has to say about this picture: "Ha-ha! I can do it with my right arm, like you're supposed to! "
http://www.president.ir/piri/media/main/67434.jpg" rel="nofollow">http://www.president.ir/piri/media/main/67434.jpg