Israel 1st-Hand: "Imagine if Iran Were in the West Bank!" (Walbridge)

There is an obsession with Iran. A settler leader and aspiring right-wing Israeli politician (and former senior aide to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) was explaining why a peace agreement giving the West Bank --- sorry, “Judea and Samaria” --- to the Palestinians would be militarily unacceptable. He took us to a settlement on the edge of the Samaritan hills and pointed to the towers of Tel Aviv on the horizon. “Imagine,” he said, “if Iran were here!” ”Iran!” I blurted out, my resolve to keep my mouth shut overwhelmed by surprise. “What’s Iran got to do with it?” He looked at me as if I was a child.

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Remember Iran Flashback: 15 June 2009 --- The March of the Millions

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EA's Live Coverage three years ago today --- the world is taken by surprise as more than a million Iranians, joined by Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, take to the streets of Tehran to challenge Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's supposed election. However, there are signs that the regime will defy the protesters and confirm Ahmadinejad's "victory", and there is ominous news of more detentions and deaths of demonstrators at the end of the evening:

2230 GMT: The end of a long and, for many, amazing day in Iran with the hopes of the mass movement balanced by rumours of deaths, beatings, and detentions (one activist writes of many people being taken to Evin Prison). Still a state of tension, with uncertainty over casualty figures from this afternoon at Azadi Square and no firm confirmation of the big march for 5 p.m. tomorrow (local time) in Tehran. Tonight, there are sounds of ambulances and police sirens and occasional gunshots.

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Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Parliament is Dissolved

Egypt's Presidential Candidate Ahmed Shafiq1328 GMT: Egypt. Amnesty International has condemned a new decree that would allow the military to arrest civilians, seemingly without cause. While the decree, passed Wednesday, was subject to Parliamentary vote, after Thursday's Supreme Court decisions, there is no Parliament, which would seem to leave the decree unchallengeable. Amnesty's Hassiba Hadj Sahraoui released this statement:

The end of Egypt's long-standing state of emergency was an opportunity for the authorities to end decades of abuses that have corroded the country's justice system.

Yet we fear this latest decision signals that instead of ushering in proper reform, the authorities are intent on holding on tight to the emergency powers they enjoyed for so long.

1312 GMT: Egypt. Some are expecting the former Mubarak Prime Minister and ally, Ahmed Shafiq, to win the Presidential elections. For starters, there is a backlash against the Muslim Brotherhood from the secular and liberal corners, as well as from the Christians who fear the rise of an Islamic party. Combine these corners with support from supporters of Mubarak, and also look at the disappointment in the Muslim Brotherhood's leadership as of late, and Shafiq begins to look like the favorite.

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Syria Live Coverage: How Will Protests Respond Today to More Deaths?

2048 GMT: Syria. Earlier, we heard a report that a mortar shell fell on a hospital in Douma, an important suburb just outside Damascus. Now, this video claims to show the heavy damage. It is unknown how many injuries or fatalities occurred as a result of this attack:

Hospitals in #Douma #RifDimashq being targeted by rockets & shells. youtu.be/8HC-u0B-vPQ #Syria

— Um Farouk(@Mou2amara) June 15, 2012

2008 GMT: Syria. I've been having a conversation with several bloggers, micro-bloggers, and activists about improvised weapons and mortars being used by the Free Syrian Army. It's clear that the FSA is increasingly finding ways of going on the offense against the Syrian military, not just the defense. However, the video below, apparently showing a remote controlled bomb, could indicate that the FSA is using more sophisticated weapons against Assad military convoys and checkpoints:

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The Latest from Iran (15 June): Politics and Corruption

Nikahang Kowsar;s Ahmadinejad promises, "I will disclose the source of corruption," to which the Supreme Leader asks, "Will you please stop this?"

See also Israel 1st-Hand: "Imagine if Iran Were in the West Bank!"
Remember Iran Flashback: 15 June 2009 --- The March of the Millions
The Latest from Iran (14 June): Tough Talk Based on Bad Economics

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1005 GMT: Prisoner Watch. Dissident filmmaker Mohammad Reza Nourizad was arrested on Thursday and released after 12 hours in solitary confinement.

Nourizad was imprisoned for several months for letters he sent to the Supreme Leader. An activist sees the latest detention as a punishment for the filmmaker's remarks on a Voce of America broadcast.

0935 GMT: Oil Watch. The Japanese legislature's lower house has passed a bill to provide government guarantees on insurance for tankers carrying Iranian oil, mitigating the effect of European sanctions beginning 1 July.

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Turkey Live Coverage (14 June): Accusations and Struggle on the Kurdish Issue

1720 GMT: US Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs José Fernandez has said that there is still room to expand the bilateral commercial ties even after a record 34 percent jump in bilateral trade volume last year. According to Fernandez:

The question is whether ties will be good or really good. Currently there are a number of areas where we cooperate very well, but now we’re thinking about how we can help expand and improve bilateral ties. 

One of our chief projects has been helping İstanbul achieve its ambitions to become a major financial center. We’re getting them in touch with members of the Securities and Exchange Commission, showing them the regulations, so they can see how it works. 

1640 GMT: Four members of PKK were killed by security forces in the district Idil of the eastern province of Sirnak after they had been spotted crossing the Turkish border from Syria.

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Remember Iran Special: Three Years Ago Today

EA's features marking 14 June 2009, two days after the disputed Presidential election:

Remember Iran: The Protests, the Repression...and the "Hope That Runs The World"
Remember Iran Flashback: "The Obama Administration Fails to React" (14 June 2009)
Remember Iran Flashback: 14 June 2009 Live Coverage --- "More than 100" Arrested as Greens Prepare Rally

EARLIER COVERAGE

13 JUNE: Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, The Protests Begin
12 JUNE: Remember Iran: An EA Special

China Feature: Beijing Disputes Territorial Waters with Its Neighbours

Chinese television reports on South Korea's detention of China's fishermen

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One clash with a foreign neighbour might be an accident. Two might be an unfortunate coincidence. Three, and even four, starts to look like a pattern.

In the last two months, the Chinese regime has been in disputes over territorial waters with Palau, the Philippines, and both North and South Korea after Chinese fishermen were challenged by foreign navies and Coast Guards. So, is this just a case of a series of clashes and misunderstanding because of the fishing or is Beijing pursuing a policy which could raise tensions in the Pacific?

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The Latest from Iran (14 June): Tough Talk Based on Bad Economics

See also Remember Iran: The Protests, the Repression...and the "Hope That Runs The World"
Remember Iran Flashback: "The Obama Administration Fails to React" (14 June 2009)
Remember Iran Flashback: 14 June 2009 Live Coverage --- "More than 100" Arrested as Greens Prepare Rally
The Latest from Iran (13 June): The Reformists and the Next Election

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Supreme Leader Addresses MPs, 13 June1515 GMT: Suppressing the Lawyers. Shadi Sadr summarises the regime's efforts to curb activism and dissent through intimidation and imprisonment of attorneys:

Between June 2009 and July 2011 at least 42 lawyers were arrested and at least 7 lawyers were forced to leave the country. Mohammad Ali Dadkhah was recently sentenced to 9 years' imprisonment and a 10 year ban on practicing law. The security officials have told him that either he will give a televised interview in which he will state that he was given money by foreign governments for defending his client or he has to go to prison....

Harassing the lawyers is not limited to their detention and sentencing. Most of the lawyers who have been detained are repeatedly questioned for having defended their clients. They are summoned and interrogated by security forces in short intervals. Many have been forced to promise not to give interviews to the media regarding the conditions of their clients. For this reason, methods of providing information regarding the conditions of the political prisoners are being blocked more and more every day. Some of the lawyers are told that they cannot accept political case files. For this reason, many prisoners of conscience are deprived of their right to a defense, prescribed by the Iranian constitution.

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Remember Iran Flashback: "The Obama Administration Fails to React" (14 June 2009)

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Vice President Joe Biden, 14 June 2009: "Our interests are the same before the election as after the election"

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In contrast to the drama unfolding on the streets of Iran, the key non-event outside the country is the lack of reaction from the Obama administration. Contrary to the position taken by the Bush administration in cases from the Ukraine to Georgia and Lebanon, there will be no welcoming or encouraging of a velvet revolution in Iran. The Obama administration is, instead, preparing itself to deal with whoever emerges as president. Despite the protestations of Mir-Hossein Mousavi's supporters, this will almost certainly be the incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While the United States would have strongly preferred to be dealing with a Mousavi administration, the basic strategic and political rationale for US-Iranian rapprochement remains unchanged.

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