Iran Election Guide

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Sunday
Jun172012

Remember Iran Flashback: 17 June 2009 --- Political Prisoners, A "Blinded" Media, and A Rally in 7 Tir Square

7 Tir Square, Tehran, 17 June 2009


2115 GMT: We're closing off our coverage for the night with news that Mousavi has called for the release of protesters arrested in the past days' rallies. That news comes via CNN, who also have more on the Iranian football team's green wrist bands.

1700 GMT: Al Jazeera says state-run media in Iran briefly showed this afternoon's rally. SkyNews and CNN (albeit briefly) also are now showing images.

One of the banners from the Iran-South Korea World Cup football qualifier: "Go to Hell Dictator".

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Saturday
Jun162012

Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, A Moment of Compromise?

Silent protest march, 16 June 2009


Re-reading our coverage from three years ago today, I was surprised. The following months of conflict and repression had eroded any memory of the moment when --- perhaps unsettled by the mass march of the previous day demanding a fair election, perhaps playing for time --- the regime had offered a glimmer of compromise.

At least eight protesters had been slain the previous evening, several students at Tehran University were dead after raids by security forces, and hundreds of people were detained, but the Supreme Leader was ordering the Guardian Council to consider a re-count of the Presidential ballots and was meetings with representatives of all four candidates, asking them to pursue "national unity".

We re-live the moment, re-posting our Live Coverage and the analysis by EA's Chris Emery, "Four Scenarios for a Vote Re-Count". 

There are other surprises as well. On 16 June 2009, I was on Al Jazeera's Inside Story with Professor Anoush Ehteshami and Tehran University's Seyed Mohammad Marandi --- whom I had known for almost a decade --- to discuss the mass protests of the previous day and the Supreme Leader's moves for a possible recount. 

Marandi is now known as one of the most strident defenders, in English-language media, of the regime's legitimacy and its crackdown on opposition. Yet in this episode, he has yet to adopt the position that Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have pursued "sedition" by calling out riotous supporters on the streets. Instead, he notes without criticism the presence of "both sides" --- the Green Movement and Ahmadinejad's supporters --- in making their cases over the election.

And my own position? I don't think I would change a single word of this, three years later: "I don't think we'll ever know if there was fraud committed last Friday....I think the issue is transparency....And I think there's also a power struggle going on within the political and clerical elites."

We re-post the full episode.

EARLIER COVERAGE

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Saturday
Jun162012

The Latest from Iran (16 June): Preparing for the Nuclear Talks

See also Remember Iran Video: The Surprise of the Protests (Marandi/Ehteshami/Lucas)
Remember Iran Flashback: Four Scenarios for a Vote Recount (Emery)
Remember Iran Flashback: 16 June 2009 Live Coverage --- A Compromise by the Regime?
The Latest from Iran (15 June): Politics and Corruption


1608 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Back to our opening entry, with President Ahmadinejad hugging the optimistic portion of the regime line (see 0510 GMT), "We are ready on a voluntary basis to make a positive step if the other party makes a similar step. We hope that we will make progress in Moscow."

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Saturday
Jun162012

Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Vote in Cairo, Violence beyond Damascus

A cameraman on a motorbike shoots 10 minutes of dramatic footage from the battleground of Jouret al-Shayeh in Homs in Syria

See also Bahrain Audio Feature: Scott Lucas with Monocle 24 "A Guide to the Current Situation"
Friday's Syria Live Coverage: How Will Protests Respond Today to More Deaths?


1655 GMT: Egypt. Mixed reports of turnout in the first of the two days of the Presidential run-off, amid stories of security forces closely monitoring foreign journalists --- Ahram Online has rolling coverage of developments.

A couple boycotting the vote handcuff themselves on Qasr El Nil Bridge in Cairo:

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Saturday
Jun162012

Bahrain Audio Feature: Scott Lucas with Monocle 24 "A Guide to the Current Situation"


Jane Kinninmont of Chatham House and I spoke at length with Monocle 24 last night about developments in Bahrain and the general political and legal situation, from the specific case of medics sentenced to prison terms to the spectres of Iran and "sectarianism" to the wider prospects over "reform", protest, and the US position on the Kingdom.

The discussion begins at the 8-minute mark.

Saturday
Jun162012

Remember Iran Video: The Surprise of the Protests (Marandi/Ehteshami/Lucas)

Al Jazeera English's Inside Story, broadcast on 16 June 2009, with Tehran University's Seyed Mohammad Marandi, Professor Anoush Ehteshami of Durham University, and EA's Scott Lucas:

Saturday
Jun162012

Remember Iran Flashback: Four Scenarios for a Vote Recount (16 June 2009)


Ahmadinejad’s lead would almost certainly be cut, and the election would appear much more competitive, but he would still win outright. This would still ask some tough questions as to why the President’s majority was initially so huge and would probably still require some scapegoats.

This result would obviously not convince many core opposition supporters. Their reaction, however, could swing in one of two different directions.  They could feel that, even with a re-confirmed Ahmadinejad victory, this unprecedented enquiry means the establishment can be pushed further. On the other hand, they could feel that they have reached the limits of what they can achieve. Meanwhile, the political establishment could see this gesture as their final offer and then crack down hard on any further opposition.

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Saturday
Jun162012

Remember Iran Flashback: 16 June 2009 --- A Compromise by the Regime?

Wounded Protester, 15 June 20092220 GMT: Politically, the evening highlight appears to be the Supreme Leader's meeting with representatives of the four Presidential campaigns, calling for them to join together for "national unity". The move seems to be more of an attempt to buy some more political time while the Guardian Council tries to sort out its options --- all candidates will have been told of the necessity to keep demonstrations non-violent and non-threatening to the regime.

Elsewhere, chatter about gatherings has died down (it is, after all, 3 a.m. in Iran), so the hope is that there will be none of the violence that was feared earlier today.

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Friday
Jun152012

EA on the Road: Talking About Iran in London

I am in London today for media work, including an interview looking back on Iran 2009 and the current situation in the country.

James Miller will be here this afternoon to take you through latest developments in Syria and in Egypt and Beyond. Updates from Iran may be slower today.

We hope you enjoy our latest feature on Israel and Iran and our Remember Iran Special. And we thank you in advance for bringing in news and ideas in our Comments sections.

Friday
Jun152012

Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today

Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, activist and academic Zahra Rahnavard, address the crowds marching in Tehran


We were taken by surprise by the pace of the news from Iran on 15 June 2009. We did not take in the significance of reports that security forces had raided dormitories at Tehran University --- later, we would learn that several students were killed --- and we were cautious that a rally challenging the election would materialise. At lunchtime, we were reporting that the march had been cancelled by the headquarters of Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Then we saw the images of the crowds on Tehran's main avenues. Not 1000s or 10,000s, but many 100,000s. By late afternoon, they had gathered in Azadi Square to protest and to celebrate their unexpected display of defiance.

Still, the evening closed with the worrying news that several demonstrators had been killed by Basij militia. The regime appeared to be preparing to declare that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election was beyond challenge, despite an announcement that the Guardian Council had agreed to a recount of votes. Could the protests alter that course?

We re-post our Live Coverage from the day. We also posted a video and transcript of President Obama's remarks --- "I think that the democratic process, free speech, the ability of people to peacefully dissent, all those are universal values and need to be respected" --- and the analysis of EA's Chris Emery, "Four Scenarios for the Vote Recount".

EARLIER COVERAGE

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