Middle East and Iran Audio Feature: "Oil and Politics" --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

As OPEC announced record revenues from oil sales, but amid a fall in the price this spring, I spoke with Monocle 24 about the politics behind the production. Topics ranged from the squeeze on Iran to the place of countries like Iraq, Venezuela, and Libya to the role of Saudi Arabia as "first among equals" in manoeuvres between OPEC, the US, and Europe.

The discussion starts just after the 19-minute mark. To reach the programme, click on "Monocle Daily" for 19/06.

Iran Analysis: The Nuclear Talks --- The West Looks for an Iranian Crash

Throughout this spring's nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, Germany, France, Russia, China), I have used the metaphor of the game of "chicken", in which two drivers aim their cars at each other and accelerate. The question, from Istanbul in April to Baghdad in May to Moscow this week, has been whether one or both sides would swerve to get an agreement on Tehran's uranium enrichment or whether both were preparing for impact.

The past 48 hours, for all the muddle during the third round of negotiations, gave us an answer.

The Iranians, after taking an unsuccesfully vague line in Baghdad, were ready to hit the brakes. The US and Europe are not --- if Iran will not give way, it should brace itself for the crash.

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The Latest from Iran (19 June): An Opening at the Nuclear Talks?

See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- #RememberIran, Arrest of Labour Activists, House of Cinema Closed
Iran Audio Analysis: The Moscow Nuclear Talks --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, The Supreme Leader Draws the Line on Protests
Remember Iran Flashback: 19 June 2009 Live Coverage --- The Supreme Leader Declares "The Outcome is Final"
The Latest from Iran (18 June): The Nuclear Talks in Moscow

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2010 GMT: CyberWar Watch. "Western officials" have told Washington Post reporters that the US and Israel jointly developed the Flame computer virus, operating for several years but recently exposed.

Flame, which mined data, was designed to map Iran’s computer networks and monitor them, sending back a steady stream of intelligence for an ongoing cyberwarfare campaign. That campaign included the Stuxnet virus, which has caused malfunctions in computers linked to Iran’s nuclear programme.

Iranian authorities revealed last month that Flame had been used against computers for the country's oil industry. The Western officials said that was a unilateral Israeli operation of which the US had no knowledge.

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Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: 90 Die as Obama and Putin Talk About Conflict

See also Monday's Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Morsi Claims Presidential Win, But Military Tightens Grip on Power

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2145 GMT: Egypt. Rumours have circulated for hours that former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak suffered a stroke today. Now a Ministry of Interior spokesman has confirmed the report, while State news agency MENA says Mubarak is "clinically dead" after he was moved from prison to a military hospital.

MENA said Mubarak's heart stopped and a defibrillator was used to restart it.

1925 GMT: Egypt. The massive crowd in Cairo's Tahrir Square tonight, protesting military rule:

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Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- #RememberIran, Arrest of Labour Activists, House of Cinema Closed (Arseh Sevom)

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Green Movement: Three Years On

This week marked the third anniversary of the demonstrations following Iran’s flawed 2009 Presidential elections, which brought the Green Movement to the world stage. Millions of Iranian citizens took to the streets of Tehran and other major Iranian cities to protest what they saw as a rigged election. Many had a simple question to ask through their peaceful demonstrations, “Where is my vote?” The rest is history.

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Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, The Supreme Leader Draws the Line on Protests

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President Obama, 19 June 2009: "I'm very concerned, based on some of the tenor and tone of the statements that have been made, that the Government of Iran recognize that the world is watching"

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Looking back, 19 June 2009 may have been a turning point in the crisis after the Presidential election. The Supreme Leader delivered the Tehran Friday Prayer in which he declared --- even though the Guardian Council was supposed to be considering a re-counted of the disputed vote --- a "great election" in which there was no question of manipulation. He also re-affirmed his anointment of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the victor, explaining that there was no way that Ahmadinejad's supposed winning margin was too large to be overturned by any "correction": "There might be 100,000 or 200,000 or 1 million in mistakes but 11 million is not possible....Nothing can be changed."

Ayatollah Khamenei blamed the mass protests on a foreign attempt at a counter-Revolution. Then there was this ominous warning, as we noted it on the day:

Leaders of campaigns "should be careful how they are acting, careful what they are saying". Otherwise, this could provoke "extremists"....The Supreme Leader talks of disruption of "normal life" by "terrorist plots" while people are carrying on demonstrations. If this happens, or if there is trouble with the paramilitary Basiji, "who will take the responsibility?"

If these "terrorist" activities continue, "I will have to come back here and speak more clearly and straightforwardly." Huge response from crowd.

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Remember Iran Flashback: 19 June 2009 --- The Supreme Leader Declares "The Outcome is Final"

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2003 GMT: From former President Mohammad Khatami's Facebook page: "Please join Mousavi, Khatami and Karoubi tomorrow at 4pm from Enghelab Sq. to Azadi Sq. in Tehran for a crucial green protest."

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Iran Audio Analysis: The Moscow Nuclear Talks --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

EU's Catherine Ashton & Iran's Saeed JaliliLast night I spent more than 10 minutes with Monocle 24, setting out the issues at the nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China) and assessing the day's developments.

The conclusion? Despite my pessimism before the talks and throughout the day over the discussions, there may be an opening for negotiations with Iran's five-point proposal on uranium enrichment and eased sanctions --- provided the US and Europe want an agreement short of a capitulation by Tehran, provided the details back up the general outline of the proposal, and provided the talks are not diverted by issues like intervention in Syria.

All big ifs.....

The discussion starts at the 17:53 mark.

Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Morsi Claims Presidential Win, But Military Tightens Grip on Power

See also Turkey Analysis: An Opposition MP Gives Prime Minister Erdogan An Edge on the Kurdish Issue
Bahrain Opinion: Why Younis Ashoori's Imprisonment Points to Repression Rather than Reform
Sunday's Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Vote of Uncertainty

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1948 GMT: Syria. The Local Coordination Committees of Syria claim 51 people have died at the hands of security forces today, including 15 in the Damascus suburbs and 12 in Homs Province.

1639 GMT: Syria. Claimed footage of Syrian forces dragging away two unarmed women:

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The Latest from Iran (18 June): The Nuclear Talks in Moscow

See also Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, A Supreme Leader's Dilemma
Remember Iran Flashback: Sifting Information from Rumours on Twitter
The Latest from Iran (17 June): "So What?" News --- Ahmadinejad to Leave Politics

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2046 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Julian Borger of The Guardian reveals both the Iranian PowerPoint presentation rejecting the 5+1 proposal of "stop, shut, and ship" 20% enriched uranium and Tehran's five-point plan:

1) The right to enrich uranium, coupled with the 'operationalisation' of the Supreme Leader's fatwa against nuclear weapons. [Lead Iranian negotiator Saeed] Jalili suggested this could be done in the form of a UN document, in which Iran promised not to pursue weapons in return for continuing to enrich;

2) Relief from sanctions in return for cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency;

3) Nuclear cooperation in the fields of civilian nuclear energy production and nuclear safety;

4) Confidence-building measures, possibly involving limits on production of 20% uranium;

5) Non-nuclear issues like cooperation on counter-narcotics plus regional matters like Syria and Bahrain.

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