Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, A Supreme Leader's Dilemma

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The March of the Millions, three days after the disputed Presidential election, is an established part of the narrative of the Green Movement's challenge. What has been largely forgotten --- at least in my memory --- was that there was other large demonstrations before the regime decided to crack down on the marches.

One of those occurred on 18 June 2009, as many tens of thousands of Iranians responded to the call for a "Sea of Black" to mourn the eight protesters killed in the March of the the Millions. They were addressed by Mir Hossein Mousavi, the Presidential candidate who is now under strict house arrest in Tehran. We have re-posted our Live Coverage of the day's events.

The continuing defiance of the regime's declaration of an Ahmadinejad re-election appeared to pose questions for Ayatollah Khamenei, who would be giving the Tehran Friday Prayer the next day. We offered the analysis of EA's Chris Emery, written for The Guardian:

The Supreme Leader is expected to lead Friday prayers in Tehran, where he will doubtless restate his calls for restraint. Hundreds of thousands of supporters on both sides will attend to see if Ayatollah Khamenei offers any more openings or whether he is drawing a line under the election. It appears that the Supreme Leader faces a stark decision of either further concessions or repression. In truth, neither option has much appeal to him. Khamenei could, as is his sole constitutional authority, declare martial law. To do so, however, would only demonstrate his personal, and the Islamic Republic's structural, failure.

Mousavi also faces a dilemma. He is well aware that the supreme leader perceives the mood on the streets as a potential threat to the very notion of an Islamic Republic. Mousavi, a former prime minister and acolyte of Ayatollah Khomeini, is no revolutionary. He will thus come under intense pressure from the supreme leader's office to reign in some of his supporters for the good of the republic. This is already the reason why Mousavi has asked for silent demonstrations and urged supporters to shout purely Islamic slogans. Khamenei has, however, so boxed himself in following his early endorsement of Ahmadinejad, that he has little to offer Mousavi which could appease him or his followers.

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Remember Iran Flashback: Sifting Information from Rumours on Twitter

Three years ago, as we began our Live Coverage of Iran, we found ourselves in an emerging debate about the changing nature of politics and media: was it possible to use social media to enhance coverage of important events?

On 18 June 2009, we decided to get beyond the simple label of a "Twitter Revolution" and test what we were seeing. We had noticed a young journalist named Josh Shahryar putting out a daily "Green Brief", based on his exhaustive watch of the claims on social media.

This was the outcome:

On "Anonymous Iran", Josh Shahryar has posted a summary of 16 points about the Iranian crisis. This is based on a thorough examination of stories circulated via Twitter --- "no news media outlets have been used in the compilation".

We've cross-checked Mr Shahryar's summary against our information --- from Iranian and international news outlets, the best of the websites covering the crisis, and contacts. We also have tried to assess the importance of the points: for example, without downplaying the other indicators, we think #16 on the political manoeuvres is the most significant, The notations in italics are our current assessment:

1. During the last protest in Tehran, several policemen have been spotted by protesters who were wearing green bands which is the color of the revolution. The policemen have told them candidly that they support them. [Unverified, although there is video footage of demonstrators mingling peacefully with police]

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Remember Iran Flashback: 18 June 2009 --- Mousavi Addresses 100,000s in Tehran

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EA's Iran Live Coverage on 18 June 2009:

1715 GMT: The rally, estimated by BBC as "100,000" people, has taken place peacefully in Tehran, with Mir Hossein Mousavi addressing the crowd.

I have just finished an interview with BBC World. It was clear, from preparation as well as the actual discussion, that BBC --- with their correspondent in Tehran effectively under "lockdown" --- is increasingly relying on "talking heads" with connections to Iran to provide information on detentions and political manoeuvres.

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Turkey Analysis: An Opposition MP Gives Prime Minister Erdogan An Edge on the Kurdish Issue

Last week, Leyla Zana, an MP of the pro-Kurdish opposition Peace and Democracy Party, expressed hope in an interview that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan would solve the Kurdish issue:

There is a solid fact here. Let’s say this openly and accept this fact. If he wanted, the strongest can solve this [Kurdish] issue. Who is the strongest one? It’s the government and its head, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The person who is the head of the strongest government in [our] history is able to show the willpower and has the power to sort out this issue. I believe that he will be able to solve this issue. I have never lost my faith in him solving this issue. And I don’t want to lose my faith in him. If I had lost [my faith], I wouldn’t be here.

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Bahrain Opinion: Why Younis Ashoori's Imprisonment Points to Repression Rather than Reform

Last Thursday, the US State Department's reaction to a Bahraini court's verdicts on 20 doctors and nurses --- "we are deeply disappointed" --- made headlines.

Beyond those headlines, however, that reaction appears to have had little impact on the regime. On Sunday, Younis Ashoori, a 61-year old hospital administrator, did not receive the final verdict in his trial. Instead, the hearing was postponed for a fortnight.

Ashoori, an administrator at Muharaq Maternity Hospital, has been held in prison for more than a year, serving a three-year sentence. The initial charge was "inciting hatred against the regime", but this has been dropped. His alleged crimes now are that he took oxygen cylinders to a medical tent and replaced pictures of Bahrain's leaders with Shia religious symbols.

Yesterday's postponment extends not only Ashoori's imprisonment, but also his physical suffering: he has been seriously ill with kidney stones and an enlarged prostate since he was seized by security forces last March. In his last court hearing, Ashoori stated that, following torture, he began urinating blood and was taken to a military hospital. When he told the doctor that it was his kidney causing him pain, the doctor allegedly responded by punching him in the spot. Today, he is in need of specialist treatment, but is only receiving basic painkillers and visits from a general doctor.

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Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Vote of Uncertainty

See also Syria 1st-Hand: A Day's Existence in Homs
Saturday's Egypt, Syria (and Beyond) Live Coverage: A Vote in Cairo, Violence beyond Damascus

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2055 GMT: Yemen. Government official says insurgents have abandoned one of the last cities that they have held in the south for more than a year.

The Ansar al-Sharia fighters pulled out of Azzan in Shabwa Province in the face of bombardments and airstrikes in a US-backed Government offensive.

2030 GMT: Syria. Ahmed Bahaddou, a video journalist working for The Associated Press, has been wounded while filming clashes between insurgents and regime forces in northern Syria.

Bahaddou, a Belgian citizen, was struck in the shoulder and evacuated to London. He is in stable condition.

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Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, A Silent March

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Three years ago today --- EA's Live Coverage, re-posted in a separate entry, noted the increasing number of political prisoners and the regime's "blinding" of the foreign media, but the challenge to the regime continued with a "silent march" in Tehran's 7 Tir Square. We featured two analyses "Reading the Supreme Leader's Politics", and Shirvin Zeinalzadeh posted "An Alternative View of the Election and Demonstrations":

The situation is difficult to control, but must be understood. Those who wish to demonstrate and air their views are more than welcome to do so. However, when it comes to destroying public buildings and services, as well as violent damage, then the security forces are forced to react, as they would in any country, and put an end to violent opportunistic troublemakers, separating them from the largely legitimate and peaceful supporters of Mousavi. The key fact that Iran has to now accept, as well as the international arena watching events unfold is that there is a large support for President Ahmadinejad, both in Iran and the rest of the world in the form of other sovereign governments who accept the results, and life must now go on.

EARLIER COVERAGE:

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The Latest from Iran (17 June): "So What?" News --- Ahmadinejad to Leave Politics

See also Iran 1st-Hand: Sanctions Are Hurting The Iranians Who Welcomed Me...And That's Good
Remember Iran: An EA Special --- Three Years Ago Today, A Silent March
Remember Iran Flashback: 17 June 2009 Live Coverage --- Political Prisoners, A "Blinded" Media, and A Rally in 7 Tir Square
The Latest from Iran (16 June): Preparing for the Nuclear Talks

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1513 GMT: Labour Front. Ten thousand Iranian factory workers from five provinces have petitioned against subsidy cuts and demanded wage increases to match the rate of inflation.

The Free Iranian Workers Syndicate organised the petition, which cites the lack of job security, lay-offs and factory closures and demands "an increase in the minimum wage commensurate with the rate of inflation, the implementation of insurance legislation for construction workers, the elimination of contracting companies in exchange for a system that gives workers direct and permanent contracts, and the creation of mechanisms to assure the timely payment of wages".

1403 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Ayatollah Dastgheib has asserted, "Our people are politically and religiously disenfranchised." He criticised authorities for presenting this flawed system as one leading the world.

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Iran 1st-Hand: Sanctions Are Hurting The Iranians Who Welcomed Me...And That's Good (Kristof)

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“The economy is breaking people’s backs,” a young woman told me in western Iran.

I regret this suffering, and let’s be clear that sanctions are hurting ordinary Iranians more than senior officials. I’m also appalled that the West blocks sales of airline parts, thus risking crashes of civilian aircraft.

Yet, with apologies to the many wonderful Iranians who showered me with hospitality, I favor sanctions because I don’t see any other way to pressure the regime on the nuclear issue or ease its grip on power. My takeaway is that sanctions are working pretty well....

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Syria 1st-Hand: A Day's Existence in Homs (Big Al Brand)

Homs, Syria, 14 June 2012

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This is the day that I lived today. It wasn’t all bad, but it was bad enough. Not every day is similar to this one, some days are better and some are much worse. I hope you got a glimpse of the kind of life we live here in Homs, and I hope you appreciate the little things in your life because you don’t know when they might go away.

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