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Saturday
Dec182010

Iran Analysis: Will Ahmadinejad Succeed on Subsidy Cuts?

Ashura is so day-before-yesterday.

On to the next possible big event. Tonight Mahmoud Ahmaidinejad will go on national television to address the Iranian public about his proposed subsidy cuts. 

Later Analysis: Ahmadinejad Walks a Tightrope to Bring Out Subsidy Cuts

On Friday, as we realised that there would be no post-Ashura boom for the regime, three EA correspondents chatted about the current situation.

Click to read more ...

Saturday
Dec182010

US Politics Video: The Daily Show on The Abandonment of the "9-11 Responders"

Last Tuesday EA's Lee Haddigan offered a detailed analysis of the power politics in Congress' "lame-duck" session, with battles over extension of tax cuts, the repeal of the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" restriction on gays and lesbians in the US military, the DREAM Act to help children of immigrants, and the New START treaty with Russia.

In the partisan struggle between Republicans and Democrats, the GOP have gotten the tax cuts, and --- against Lee's expectations --- Don't Ask, Don't Tell is likely to be repealed. But this "progress" hides what could be a tragic and, let's say it, scandalous tale of politics.

On Thursday, The Daily Show took on the story that almost no media outlet in the US considered or dared to report: the filibuster in Congress that will probably kill off any prospect of assistance to the men and women --- firefighters, police, paramedics, machine operators --- who arrived at the scene of the collapsing and burning towers of the World Trade Center on 11 September 2001. Many of those responders have died, are dying, or are seriously ill.

The full episode includes The Daily Show's darkly humourous look at the Congressional politics and Jon Stewart's interview with 2008 Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee, in which the standard plugging of a book is soon jettisoned for Huckabee's discomfort in handling Stewart's questions. But, for me, it is Stewart's interview of four 9-11 responders which is most illuminating and moving.

Watch the US version or the UK version.

Saturday
Dec182010

A Lesson for Climate Change: History, Slavery, and the Power of the Incremental (Mouhot)

In comparison to the headlong flight towards more technological fixes, self-restraint and humility in admitting our human limitations present far fewer dangers. But could it work? Self-restraint clearly failed to abolish slavery in the American South --- nothing bar a war succeeded. But the future is not written, and we can learn from our mistakes. History suggests that in order to reduce the risk of runaway climate change, governments and people should push for incremental self-restraint while making sure people are offered an alternative to fossil fuels.  

Click to read more ...

Friday
Dec172010

Video & Transcript: Obama, Clinton, and Gates on the Afghanistan-Pakistan Strategy Review

The video of President Obama's presentation on Friday of the Afghanistan and Pakistan Annual Review. The transcript that follows includes not only Obama's address but also the briefing by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates:

We have already posted the unclassified summary of the Review, along with our snap reaction, "Big Damn Deal". A special analysis will be posted on Saturday:

THE PRESIDENT:  Good morning, everybody.  When I announced our new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan last December, I directed my national security team to regularly assess our efforts and to review our progress after one year.

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Friday
Dec172010

The Latest from Iran (17 December): Did We Miss the Regime's Show of Support?

1645 GMT: Division over the Foreign Minister. Deputy Speaker Mohammad Hassan Abutorabi-Fard has supported President Ahmadinejad's dismissal of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, but MP Mohsen Kouhkan, who said he heard of Mottaki's firing by SMS text, said the move was not wise at this moment.

Koukhan also claimed that MP Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a key member of the National Security Commission, is favoured as the new Foreign Minister by the Parliament.

1640 GMT: Ashura Moment. Aftab News publishes a photograph of President Ahmadinejad greeting supporters at a mourning ceremony.

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Friday
Dec172010

Iran Snap Analysis: Non-Events, Non-Millions, and Non-Victory on Ashura

In more than 18 months of covering the post-election crisis in Iran, it may have been the strangest experience.

It was just after 9 a.m. in Iran when I set up the computer, turned on Iran's Press TV, opened up the websites of Iran's state media, and prepared to write about the "millions" who would turn out in mourning for Imam Hossein, the third Imam of Shi'a who had been killed in 680 AD by the evil Caliph Yazid. 

I knew there would be "millions" because ranian press and broadcasters had told me there would be millions.

Click to read more ...

Friday
Dec172010

Terrorism Weekly: What the Attack in Sweden Really Tells Us

Thankfully, last weekend's attack in Stockholm killed only the bomber, Taimour Abdulwahab Al-Abdaly. But, strangely, the event triggered gnashing of teeth and attribution of blame on an epic scale.

All blame aside, what does the attack on the weekend tell us about the threat of international terrorism? First, the threat of lone individuals or small groups remains high but, in turn, that small number of participants is more likely to bring failed attacks and a low number of casualties even if the attack succeeds. The lack of skill of the terrorist also points to either an absence of training, hurried training, or poor training.

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Dec162010

Afghanistan-Pakistan Document: The Obama Administration's Grand Review

We were going to wait until Friday morning to run a special feature on the Obama Administration's much-heralded --- i.e., spun for the press --- review of the US approach to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

However, having just watched the star-studded press conference, with not only President Obama but also Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, telling the media how to interpret the five unclassified pages, I thought I would go ahead and put the document before the readers.

NOW SEE Video & Transcript: Obama, Clinton, and Gates on the Afghanistan-Pakistan Strategy Review

Analysis will follow on Saturday; however, I will offer this advance snippet.

Big Damn Deal.

Click to read more ...

Thursday
Dec162010

US Politics Analysis: Why The Tea Party Puts God on the Sidelines (Parsons)

Photo: Life It is the 18th-century Gadsden flag ("Don't Tread on Me"), not the Cross, that decorate Tea Party rallies and bumper stickers. There is good reason for this: the movement is not about religion, it is about politics.

At first glance, the Tea Party is not necessarily "secular". The Public Religion Research Institute's recent American Values Survey, “Religion and the Tea Party in the 2010 Elections”, found 47% of voters aligned with the Tea Party movement identified themselves as either part of the Religious Right or the conservative Christian movement.

Yet the social conservatism of the Religious Right is not, nor is it likely, to be front and centre in Tea Party politics. Where is God? The answer, surprisingly, is that he is peripheral..

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Thursday
Dec162010

Latest Iran Video: The Scenes of Ashura

For coverage of today's events on the occasion of Ashura, see our LiveBlog.

Ashura procession Tehran:

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