WikiLeaks: "Iran Can't Go On Like This" --- The Mistaken Predictions for the 22 Bahman Protests

The events of 22 Bahman (11 February 2010) were a significant disappointment for the Iranian opposition. In the weeks before the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, there was an excitement that protests against the Government and regime --- which had continued despite repression and made a notable impact in the Ashura demonstrations of 27 December --- would build, possibly to a critical point.

On the day, the opposition was unable to mount a co-ordinated public protest while the regime was able to mobilise support for its official ceremonies.

In that light, the cable below from the Iran Watchers" post at the US Embassy in Baku in Azerbaijan is telling: the Embassy's sources were all predicting a significant opposition turnout on 22 Bahman to challenge a fracturing regime: "Iran Can't Go On Like This".

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Afghanistan: Holbrooke Death Overtakes Analysis of "No Decisive Victory"

The headline news in Washington is the death of Richard Holbrooke, the senior US diplomat involved in attempted resolution of conflicts from Bosnia to Afghanistan. The coverage is exemplified by this final sentence from a long profile in The Washington Post:

As Mr. Holbrooke was sedated for surgery, family members said, his final words were to his Pakistani surgeon: "You've got to stop this war in Afghanistan."

The tributes are likely to swamp any coverage of the current situation. On Sunday, Rajiv Chandrasekaran --- who wrote the Post eulogy for Holbrooke --- had published a long article on the tensions between US officials and Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

And last night Deb Reichmann of the Associated Press wrote an incisive and significant-analysis which is likely to disappear today:

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The Latest from Iran (14 December): Power Plays

2030 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Lawyers Sara Sabaghian and Maryam Kianarsi have been released on bail.

Sebaghian, Kianarsi, and fellow attorney Maryam Karbasi were seized at Imam Khomeini Airport in mid-November as they returned from Turkey.

2025 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More from the statement of Reza Khandan (see 1154 GMT), the husband of detained attorney Nasrine Sotoudeh, about his wife's situation....

Khandan explained the new charge in Sotoudeh's file of “failing to adhere to the Islamic code of dressing (hijab)”: “Two years ago Sotoudeh had been awarded a prize by the Italian Human Rights Committee and to express her gratitude, she had recorded a video message in Iran without covering her hair. The message was not shown in Iran.”

Khandan also denied the most recent claim of judiciary official Mohammad Javad Larijani that Sotoudeh had met with terrorist groups: "[She] has at no time been linked to terrorist groups and no such charge is in her file.”

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US Politics: Why There Will Be No DREAM Act, No Repeal of "Don't Ask and Don't Tell", and No New START

There will be partisan bickering in Congress, despite this season's message of peace and goodwill over tax cuts;  however, the likelihood is that some kind of measure will be cobbled together to keep the government funded by the deadline of 1 January.

The real casualty of the discussions over a continuing resolution and the contentious floor battle over tax cuts will be three other issues that the Democrats wanted to address: the DREAM Act, the repeal of the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" restriction on gays and lesbians in the military, and the "New START" nuclear treaty with Russia.

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Israel-Palestine Analysis: Washington's "Fresh" Attempt at Talks Puts Netanyahu on the Spot

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu faces a challenge. The Obama Administration wants a "fresh" start for indirect talks from both sides. Netanyahu is expected to put forth an offer, especially on borders between Israel and a Palestinian state. The US hopes that a consensus on those borders will bring the solution of other core issues such as security, Jerusalem, water, and settlements.

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Iran Special Analysis: Ahmadinejad's Victory? The Firing of Foreign Minister Mottaki (Tehrani)

At some stage, Ayatollah Khamenei probably gave his green light for Foreign Minister Mottaki's replacement, but President Ahmadinejad's disposal of Mottaki was most probably a surprise move, even for the Supreme Leader.

To show off his powers and humiliate his closest rivals, such as Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, the President decided to do what none of his precedessors had dared or managed to do: fire one of the Islamic Republic's long-serving foreign ministers. Indeed, Ahmadinejad indulged in one of the more acute examples of his "bravado" behaviour, issuing a terse communique firing the Mottaki, just after the Foreign Minister had delivered a message from the President to his Senegalese counterpart.

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Afghanistan: Hamid Karzai --- America's "Question Mark" (Chandrasekaran)

Afghan President Hamid Karzai had heard enough.

For more than an hour, Gen. David H. Petraeus, U.S. Ambassador Karl W. Eikenberry and other top Western officials in Kabul urged Karzai to delay implementing a ban on private security firms. Reconstruction projects worth billions of dollars would have to be shuttered, they maintained, if foreign guards were evicted.

Sitting at the head of a glass-topped, U-shaped table in his conference room, Karzai refused to budge, according to two people with direct knowledge of the late October meeting. He insisted that Afghan police and soldiers could protect the reconstruction workers, and he dismissed pleas for a delay.

As he spoke, he grew agitated, then enraged. He told them that he now has three "main enemies" --- the Taliban, the United States and the international community.

"If I had to choose sides today, I'd choose the Taliban," he fumed.

After a few more parting shots, he got up and walked out of the wood-paneled room.

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The Latest from Iran (13 December): Political Battles and Human Rights

2005 GMT: Signal of the Day. This might be the most telling news item about the future of Iranian diplomacy on the day that Foreign Minister Mottaki was fired.

While Mottaki was in Senegal on his last state trip, another Iranian emissary was leading a delegation to the strategic country of Jordan.

That emissary? President Ahmadinejad’s Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

That's right. The same Rahim-Mashai whose designation as a special envoy this summer prompted Mottaki's threat to resign and the Supreme Leader's chiding of the President for a "parallel" foreign policy, bringing a promise that Rahim-Mashai's position would be downgraded.

2000 GMT: Reaction to the Dismissal. We reported earlier (see 1654 GMT) that Alaeddine Boroujerdi, the chairman of the National Security Commission. learned of Foreign Minister Mottaki's dismissal from a Khabar Online reporter. His reaction is worth repeating in full: "Isn't Mr. Mottaki on a trip? You mean the dismissal decree was issued while he was on a mission?"

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Egypt Snapshot: Mubarak "Pleased" But Protests Continue Over Elections

Yesterday, even as President Hosni Mubarak tried to settle any tensions over this month's Parliamentary elections, in which his ruling National Democratic Party won more than 90% of the seats, there were further signs of troubled political waters.

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Iran Snapshot: Political Prisoners, Hunger Strikes, and The Spectre That Defies Calm

Even though news is hard to obtain to verify rumour, the movement of the stories defies the easy declaration --- made by some readers to EA this weekend --- that the "political situation is calm".

Calm is denied by the increasing, rather than easing, repression of the Iranian authorities. Resolution is belied by detention, hunger strikes, and the possibility of death.

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