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Thursday
Feb142013

Syria 1st-Hand: How to Start an Insurgent Battalion (Abdul-Ahad)

Formation of the Al Hasan bin Ali Battalion in Hama last week


For decades, the dictatorship in Syria worked to stamp the people into submission: every pulpit, every media outlet, every schoolbook sent out the same message, that people should be subservient to the ruler. In Syria (as in a different way in Iraq, Egypt and the rest), those in authority – from the president to the policeman, from the top party apparatchik to the lowliest government functionary – exercised power over every aspect of people’s lives. You spent your life trying to avoid being humiliated --- let alone detained and tortured or disappeared – by those in authority while somehow also sucking up to them, bribing them, begging them to give you what you needed: a telephone line, a passport, a university place for your son. So when these systems of control collapsed, something exploded inside people, a sense of individualism long suppressed. Why would I succumb to your authority as a commander when I can be my own commander and fight my own insurgency? Many of the battalions dotted across the Syrian countryside consist only of a man with a connection to a financier, along with a few of his cousins and clansmen. They become itinerant fighting groups, moving from one battle to another, desperate for more funds and a fight and all the spoils that follow.

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Thursday
Feb142013

Afghanistan Audio Analysis: What Now for the US and NATO? --- James Miller with Monocle 24

Amid President Obama's declaration that 34,000 US troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan and news that a NATO airstrike had killed 10 Afghan civilians, EA's James Miller appeared on Monocle 24 to discuss the political and military situation.

The discussion begins about the 8:00 mark.

Thursday
Feb142013

Iran Live Coverage: Revolutionary Guards Issue A Warning to The Leaders

Qassem Sulemani, the head of the Quds Forces of the Revolutionary Guards, cries at a memorial for Guards commander Hassan Shateri, killed on Tuesday in Syria

Wednesday's Iran Live Coverage: Nuclear Talks with the IAEA


2015 GMT:Foreign Affairs Watch (Syrian Front). Senior cleric Mehdi Taeb, head of the Ammar Base think tank, has offered more explanation of Iran's military role in Syria, encouraging the formation of militias:,/p>

Syria had an army, but this army was incapable of managing war inside cities. Therefore, Iran suggested [to Syria] that they form a Basij in order to manage urban warfare.... The Syrian Basij was formed with 60,000 Hezbollahi and [this] caused the urban warfare to be transferred from the Syrian army [to the Syrian Basij]....

Of course, this adventure caused the Syrian Army to also become involved in some of these matters [urban warfare], and to become familiarized with all [aspects of the conflict].

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Thursday
Feb142013

Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The 2nd Anniversary of the Mass Protests

A man, referring to today's killing of teenager Hassan AlJazeeri, defies Bahrain security forces, "You killed a 17-year-old kid. Shoot me, I don't fear you"

Syria Live Coverage: Rebel Gains and Civilian Losses Grow
Wednesday's Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Is There Any Hope in the "National Dialogue"?


2025 GMT: Bahrain. Clashes in Sitra today:

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Thursday
Feb142013

Syria Live Coverage: Rebel Gains and Civilian Losses Grow

2125 GMT: Tal 'Arn Attacked. Rebels launched an intense attack against Tal 'Arn, between Al Safirah and Aleppo (map).

This video, posted yesterday, reportedly shows rebels firing an RPG. Several more show RPGs fired from different angles.

This reportedly shows a tank destroyed by an RPG, also posted yesterday:

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Wednesday
Feb132013

Syria Analysis: A New Insurgent Alliance --- With New Weapons --- Is Changing the War 

Rebel fighters gather men and firepower, including a Yugoslavian M-60 recoilless rifle, to attack the Hamidiyah base near Ma'arrat al Nouman.


Yesterday's dramatic news was the insurgency['s capture of an airbase, complete with working fighter jets, in Aleppo Province and the assault against the largest Assad base in the north, near Aleppo International Airport.

This surge is at least partially the result of new weapons and new organisation of insurgency groups in Daraa and Damascus, with ample evidence that the boost in arms is courtesy of foreign powers.

Now a new piece of evidence bolsters the assessment that these weapons are coming from outside Syria, and also gives insight into the modified organisation of insurgent groups. Eliot Higgins presents this video:

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Wednesday
Feb132013

Syria Live Coverage: Insurgents Take Another Airbase --- Next, a Major City?

2113 GMT: Aleppo Airport Closer to Falling. Videos claim to show the rebels attacking the base of the 80th regiment, one of the key defenses for Aleppo airport, the largest major airbase in the north. It is from this the airport that Assad has launched most of his attacks in Aleppo, and without it the rebels have the city nearly surrounded and cut off from reinforcements.

Videos show the rebels pounding the base with RPGs and sniper fire, while other videos show the rebels looting the base of both ammunition and anti-aircraft weapons:

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Wednesday
Feb132013

Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Is There Any Hope in the "National Dialogue"?

1918 GMT: Bahrain. The Information Affairs' Authority --- deliberately or unwittingly --- has built on a pro-regime disinformation campaign --- to warn about "direct threats" by an opposition which it calls "terrorist gangs and saboteurs".

Opposition groups, including Al Wefaq, have called for Bahrainis to refrain from shopping, banking, and fuelling their cars. Pro-regime activists have used that to put out fake flyers, in the name of the opposition, threatening people if they do not join the boycott.

A women's "Noise March" in Bahrain on Tuesday

See also Syria Live Coverage: Insurgents Take Another Airbase --- Next, a Major City?
Tuesday's Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Protesters Block Key Building for 3rd Day


1918 GMT: Bahrain. The Information Affairs' Authority --- deliberately or unwittingly --- has built on a pro-regime disinformation campaign to warn about "direct threats" by an opposition which it calls "terrorist gangs and saboteurs".

Opposition groups, including Al Wefaq, have called for Bahrainis to refrain from shopping, banking, and fuelling their cars. Pro-regime activists have used that to put out fake flyers, in the name of the opposition, threatening people if they do not join the boycott.

Now the IAA has put out the statement:

Some internet webpages and social media accounts in Bahrain circulated news about direct threats being sent by terrorist gangs and saboteurs to various individuals, groups, families, workers, shops and companies intended to compel citizens and residents to stay at home and refrain from going to work or business as usual on Thursday February, 14, 2013 in a desperate bid to forcibly impose a de facto public strike in the Kingdom of Bahrain.

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Wednesday
Feb132013

Iran Live Coverage: Nuclear Talks with the IAEA

See also Iran Live Coverage: Seizing the Children of the Detained Opposition Leaders


2019 GMT: Nuclear Watch. State outlet Press TV, without giving details, proclaims that Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agnecy "have reached basic agreement to work out a structured framework to resolve the outstanding issues" on inspection and supervision of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme.

Iran’s envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said that the "remaining differences" would be discussed in the next Iran-IAEA meeting.

2011 GMT: Sanctions Watch. After a week of combat with President Ahmadinejad, head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani turned today to support of the regime's All-Is-Well line on the economy and sanctions, telling judiciary officials:

The revolutionary message of the people to the hegemonic states was that your pressures are useless and they will even have reverse effects. The vigilant Iranian nation turned these threats into an opportunity for demonstrating the strength and magnificence of the Islamic establishment.

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Wednesday
Feb132013

Syria Analysis: The Lessons from Airpower in the Libyan Uprising (Wehrey)

Anti-Assad forces in Syria have long boasted of making Aleppo their Benghazi -- a haven from which to topple the regime in Damascus. But perhaps a closer analogy is Misrata where, after months of grinding, urban combat, Libyan revolutionaries pushed out Muammar al-Qaddafi's troops and paved the way for the liberation of Tripoli. Precision airpower, combined with the presence of foreign ground advisors working alongside the city's defenders, helped in this crucial battle, but in ways that were dependent on a number of other factors --- all with important implications for Syria.

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