North Korea Audio Analysis: Assessing the Nuclear Test --- Scott Lucas with the BBC

I spoke with BBC WM on Tuesday afternoon, trying to get beyond the immediate reactions to assess the significance of the North Korean nuclear test.

Take-away line: "While the test is a notable political move --- primarily to establish the domestic authority of leader Kim Jong Un --- it does not represent an imminent military threat."

The discussion begins at the 48:37 mark.

US Politics Video and Transcript: President Obama's State of the Union Address

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PRESIDENT OBAMA: Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, members of Congress, fellow Americans, 51 years ago, John F. Kennedy declared to this chamber that “the Constitution makes us not rivals for power, but partners for progress.”

(APPLAUSE)

“It is my task,” he said, “to report the state of the union. To improve it is the task of us all.”

Tonight, thanks to the grit and determination of the American people, there is much progress to report. After a decade of grinding war, our brave men and women in uniform are coming home.

(APPLAUSE)

After years of grueling recession, our businesses have created over 6 million new jobs. We buy more American cars than we have in five years and less foreign oil than we have in 20.

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Syria Live Coverage: Car Bomb on Turkey Border; Insurgents Take Major Dam

Islamist-led insurgents attack an Air Force building near the Taqaba Dam

Syria & Iran Follow-Up: The Real Story of "Syria's Iran-Hezbollah 50,000-Man Militia" in 3 Easy Steps
Syria Audio Analysis: Will There Be Negotiations? (No.) --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24
Syria Video Feature: The Dangers of Reporting for State TV
Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Protesters Block Key Building for 3rd Day
Monday's Syria Live Coverage: Fighting Escalates Near Damascus

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2124 GMT: Foreign Weapons - Update. Last week we came to a provocative conclusion - there was sufficient evidence that a foreign power was arming the Syrian rebels, and those weapons were being deployed into the fight as part of a new, and far more effective, rebel strategy. We're still finding more evidence that this is true, and that the weapons are spreading, suggesting that a large amount of weapons have been smuggled into the country.

As we've also noted, those weapons were showing up in the hands of Free Syrian Army units, secular units with good reputations, and they had not been seen in the hands of Jihadists.

Until now. This was taken near Hamidiyah Military Base, southwest of Ma'arrat al Nouman (map), where rebels have been gathering to siege the power. The first, and most obvious, feature of the video is the impressive array of weaponry, from tanks to RPGs (including the RPG 29, a powerful anti-tank weapon) to 4x4s with machine guns. One of the shields on the 4x4s is painted in an Arabic prayer common to Jihadi elements. At least some of these soldiers appear to be Mujahadeen, Islamists, Jihadists, likely part of Jabhat al Nusra - not moderates. And among the weaponry, an M60 recoilless rifle is visible, part of the "foreign weapons" arsenal we've been pointing out.

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Syria & Iran Follow-Up: The Real Story of "Syria's Iran-Hezbollah 50,000-Man Militia" in 3 Easy Steps

General Mohammad Ali JafariOn Sunday, only four days after the US Government implemented more measures to choke off Iran's financial transactions and hinder its energy sector and other industries, The Washington Post presented dramatic "news" which had been circulating in Iran since the previous summer.

The Post's reporters never referred to the Iranian statements. Indeed, they showed no awareness of them.

But they did not need this knowledge. All they had to do, for their headline and for the purpose of the "US official" who fed them their line, was to make the claim. Because it is unlikely that a fellow high-profile journalist will check the story, it will now be established as the likely story of the Iran-Hezbollah-Assad connection --- with its benefits to those feeding that story.

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Iran Live Coverage: Seizing the Children of the Detained Opposition Leaders

See also Syria & Iran Follow-Up: The Real Story of "Syria's Iran-Hezbollah 50,000-Man Militia" in 3 Easy Steps
Monday's Iran Live Coverage: "Viva Spring" --- Ahmadinejad Launches An Election Campaign

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1845 GMT: The Battle Within. The "Council of Explaining Basij Student Positions of Greater Tehran" has warned President Ahmadinejad, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, and head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani that they will be branded "traitors" if they continue their disputes.

The Council said that, if the disagreement persisted, "[We will] certainly confront you in the way that is suitable."

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Syria Audio Analysis: Will There Be Negotiations? (No.) --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Insurgnet in Captured BMP (Photo: Achilleas Zavallis/AFP)I spoke with Monocle 24's The Globalist this morning to consider both opposition and regime talk about negotiations --- is this likely to lead to actual discussions?

Listen to the interview from the 10:15 mark, either on The Globalist homepage or in the pop-out window.

My answer is "No". The immediate barrier is that each side is setting conditions to its entry into talks, but the more important reason is that as the insurgency takes more territory, it has no incentive to meet regime officials unless President Assad is ready to step down.

Since I recorded this, we have had further news --- see today's Live Coverage --- of insurgent victories, including the seizure of an airbase and the advance on the city of Deir Ez Zor. Those developments only reinforce my view.

US Politics Analysis: Predicting Obama's "Aggressive" State of the Union Speech

Tonight Obama has the platform, and the one-time political capital he garnered by winning his re-election campaign, for setting the priorities of the national conversation. The President has disappointed his liberal allies before --- and it would be no great surprise if that happened once again --- but, if he does want to be remembered as a “great” President, then tonight marks the moment when he must begin to swing the nation behind the Democratic Party he leads.

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Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Protesters Block Key Building for 3rd Day

See also Syria Live Coverage: Car Bomb on Turkey Border; Insurgents Take Major Dam
Monday's Egypt (and Beyond) Live Coverage: The 2nd Anniversary of Mubarak's Fall

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1739 GMT: Tunisia. The leader of the Ennadha Party, the dominant faction in the ruling coalition, has said he expects that agreement will be reached on a new Cabinet led by Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali.

Rachid Ghannouchi said, "I expect that agreement will be reached and I expect Jebali will remain the prime minister of a coalition government."

Following last week's assassination of opposition politician Chokri Belaid, Jebali proposed a Cabinet of apolitical technocrats but pthers in Ennahda objected.

Ghannouchi said a counter-proposal would be made, "There is a project for a political government that will be presented to the prime minister to form a team of politicians and technocrats."

The Ennadha leader continues, "We don't have much time before we announce this government. The time limit is this week."

Ghannouchi indicated that Ennahda was prepared to compromise over the control of portfolios such as defence, foreign affairs, justice, and interior.

Some groups in the ruling coalition, notably President Moncef Marzouki's Congress for the Republic, had threatened to withdraw their ministers if the Justice and Foreign Ministers were not replaced.

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Syria Video Feature: The Dangers of Reporting for State TV (Sturdee)

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Nick Sturdee writes in The Guardian:

What's it like to represent one of the world's most reviled regimes? At the very heart of Damascus, opposite the army's chief of staff headquarters – crippled by car bombs in September – stands a building with a shiny blue facade, topped by towers of satellite dishes. In front a big screen proudly emits what the building produces – the world according to Syrian state TV.

It's the frontline in a "media war" that the Syrian government sees itself as waging against the outside world. And the newest and youngest weapon in this war is the Syrian News Channel, al Ikhbariya, --- a satellite channel combating such hostile voices as al Jazeera, al Arabia and...the BBC.

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Syria 1st-Hand: Battle in Damascus Takes Toll on Regime Soldiers (New York Times)

In this war of murky battlefield reports, it is hard to know whether the rebels’ recent forays past some of the capital’s circle of defenses — in an operation that they have, perhaps immodestly, named the “Battle of Armageddon” — will lead to more lasting gains than earlier offensives did. But travels along the city’s battlefronts in recent days made clear that new lines, psychological as much as geographical, had been crossed.

“I didn’t see my family for more than a year,” a government soldier from a distant province said in a rare outpouring of candor. He was checking drivers’ identifications near the railway station at a checkpoint where hundreds of soldiers arrived last week with tanks and other armored vehicles.

“I am tired and haven’t slept well for a week,” he said, confiding in a traveler who happened to be from his hometown. “I have one wish — to see my family and have a long, long sleep. Then I don’t care if I die.”

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