Iran's Economic Story: The "Pseudo-Privatisation" (Harris)

Kevan Harris gets behind the headlines for the new journal Muftah, concluding, "In the end, the fate of the Iranian economy likely hinges more on the country’s fractured political situation, deteriorating social welfare institutions, and inadequate policy outcomes than on the [Revolutionary Guard] bogeyman so many would have us fear":

When discussing the current state of Iran’s economy, commentators, activists, politicians, and the U.S. government all seem to agree on the massive role played by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Stanford University Professor Abbas Milani told an audience at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington D.C. in June 2010 that this “military junta” controls “minimally about 60% of the economy”.  Green Movement leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have lamented the IRGC’s economic takeover in their perennial letters and interviews.  Even many conservatives in Iran’s narrowed but still fractious political elite have protested the transferring of state-owned enterprises and land to military-linked companies. Among the general population, the influence of the IRGC has become so well-known that any cab driver in Tehran can identify the highways and tunnels being built by the organization or its affiliates.

Common knowledge, however, has a tendency to steamroll over nuances, especially in the echo chamber that public discussions on Iran resemble today.  While it is certainly true that Iran is undergoing a major economic transformation, in which the IRGC is playing a substantial role, there are other developments that remain largely unaddressed, particularly within the opaque process known to Iranians as pseudo-privatization.

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Iran Special: Khamenei Lavishly Seeks Support from Qom's Clerics

And so, after weeks of preparation and some delays, the Supreme Leader ventures to Iran's religious centre today. The stay in Qom will last about a week, and it starts with a flourish, as Ayatollah Khamenei gives a speech marking the birthday of Reza, Shi'a's 8th Imam.

What is likely to happen? On the public front, that's an easy test --- in front of the crowds, given time off from offices and schools for the day, and given wall-to-wall coverage by Iran's media, the Supreme Leader will display his admired leadership.

It's behind closed doors that the question gets more interesting and far more difficult to answer.

So where will we be tomorrow morning, after the first day of the Supreme Leader's visit? There will be no shortage of colourful photographs, laudatory articles, and admiring "analyses" of the public performance. At the centre of the display, however, there is likely to remain a vacuum resounding in its silence. Only in the following days and weeks, when the colour fades and other un-heralded signals emerge will we be able to assess if Ayatollah Khamenei has succeeded in his mission.

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Iran Witness: Journalist Jalali Farahani "We Knew That Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Was Not Re-Elected"

On the night of the election at the Mehr news agency, we knew that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was not reelected because Mehr had reporters in cities across Iran and we were receiving reports every minute about the results in different cities, we knew about the votes Ahmadinejad had received and the votes that went to Mir Hossein Musavi. We even had figures about the ballot boxes from outside the country. 

Around 7 p.m. when we did an approximate count of the vote, we came to the conclusion that Mir Hossein Musavi was the new president. Around 4 p.m. our reporter reported that armed Revolutionary Guards had attacked the central election office of Musavi. 

Imagine, we're there covering the news and we're receiving all these reports, around 6 p.m. a friend of mine who worked at the "Iran" daily called me and said that the manager of the paper had told all the staff to come to work to prepare a special issue for the victory of Ahmadinejad -- the election process had not ended at this point. 

That night was the worst night of my career, not only me but for all my colleagues -- even those who supported Ahmadinejad who were only a few at the Mehr news agency -- they could see that there was fraud.

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Pakistan: "Top NATO Official" (Petraeus?) Blames Islamabad for Sheltering Bin Laden

Sometimes Twitter misses the story.

The sub-140-character flash this morning was "Bin Laden Hiding in Northwest Pakistan". And I'm thinking, "This is news to whom?"

But then I click the link, to CNN's website,  just to confirm the bleedin' obvious: "NATO official: Bin Laden, deputy hiding in northwest Pakistan". Still nothing to break a yawn.

Then, in the third paragraph, the significant news jumps out: "Al Qaeda's top leadership is believed to be living in relative comfort, protected by locals and some members of the Pakistani intelligence services, the official said."

Whoa. Someone from NATO just threw petrol on the fire: Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, are not only surviving but free from imminent challenge. The deadly duo can put their feet up, not just because of the "tribes" in the "autonomous" areas beyond Islamabad's control --- the story-line for most of the past eight years --- but because some people in Islamabad are supporting them.

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The Latest from Iran (18 October): Mischief-Making

1825 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (Amended). An EA correspondent checks in on our item about the reported statement from Hashemi Rafsanjani over his refusal to lead Tehran Friday Prayers since July 2009 (see 1440 GMT).

According to the former President's representative, Ali Asgari, Rafsanjani said he would be flaunting justice if he omitted to saying the "full truth" in the Prayers, adding that many would be upset if he did say the truth. Therefore, Rafsanjani refrains from saying the truth to avoid disturbing people or acting in violation of justice.

1805 GMT: Academic Corner. A very useful summary from Golnaz Esfandiari at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, "In Iran, Renewed Efforts To Keep University Students In Check".

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Israel-Palestine Summary: Reactions to Netanyahu's Extension of Settlements

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approving plans to build 238 new homes in East Jerusalem and parts of the West Bank, French President Nicholas Sarkozy’s initiative for direct Israel-Palestine talks has fallen through. The planned peace summit, due to be held Friday, is indefinitely postponed. "We are looking for a new date that works for everybody, although there is nothing firm scheduled yet," an Israeli government official told Reuters.

Washington and Paris said that they were “disappointed” by the decision. In response, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said: “We have already said in the past that there is no longer a settlement freeze in Jerusalem. Regarding the relationship with the United States, they received notification of the plan [for the new homes] before we announced it.”

Moroccan King Mohammed VI wrote Israeli President Shimon Peres, was supposed to represent Israel in World Economic Forum, that their meeting was impossible at the moment. So Peres has canceled his trip.

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Iran Feature: And Now We Bring You This Diversion from Iraq

UPDATE 1730 GMT: So let's check in, after Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's day in Tehran, to see if "diversion" is the right word....

Al-Maliki saw the Supreme Leader, who said, "Formation of a government as soon as possible and establishment of full security are among the important needs of Iraq because development and reconstruction of Iraq...can't be achieved without these two [conditions]." He continued, "All politicians and officials in Iraq should focus on formation of a new government as soon as possible," and then had a little dig at Washington, "I wish the almighty God ends America's menace over Iraq as soon as possible ... it will solve the Iraqi nation's problems."

It was more platitudes when al-Maliki saw Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who put out the sound-bite, "Regional countries and states can manage themselves and the region hand in hand, and by providing for one another's needs they can become each others supporters....Iran completely supports a united, strong and independent Iraq which serves the Iraqi people, Islamic ideals and progress of the region."

But for the most brazen tip-off --- either from al-Maliki or from Iranian state media putting words in his mouth --- that this was primarily a showpiece for the legitimacy of the Iranian Government rather than, in the overblown coverage of this morning, proof of Iran putting together Baghdad's leadership, let's close with the Iraqi Prime Minister's supposed greeting to Ahmadinejad....

""During your visit to Lebanon, the Zionist regime [of Israel] was on high [military] alert, which proved they are really cowards."

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America's "Sons of Iraq" Returning to the Insurgency? (Williams/Adnan)

One of the heralded features of the US "surge" in Iraq in 2007-8, which purported brought stability and checked violence in the country, was the creation of Sunni militias, known as the "Sons of Iraq" or Awakening Councils. The units were to rally the population against the threat of "foreign" insurgencies such as Al Qa'eda in Iraq.

With the official pull-back of the US military under the December 2008 Status of Forces Agreement, the theory was that the Iraqi Government --- even if it was predominantly Shi'a --- would integrate the Awakening Councils into the national military and security services. In practice, however, that has proved problematic.

Timothy Williams and Duraid Adnan of The New York Times pick up the story:

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Afghanistan: Wikileaks and the Pentagon's Deceptive Response

Remember the fuss this summer, after Wikileaks released almost 92,000 documents on the US military intervention in Afghanistan, when the Pentagon and US military said that the primary effect of the published material would be the exposure of troops and those helping the Americans, putting their lives at risk at the hands of the Taliban?

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mike Mullen, spared no words accusing Julian Assange, the founder of Wikileaks, "Mr. Assange can say whatever he likes about the greater good he thinks he and his source are doing, but the truth is they might already have on their hands the blood of some young soldier or that of an Afghan family." 

At the time --- while not ignoring the possibility --- it felt primarily like a campaign by the Obama Administration and the Department of Defense, not only to limit the damage of the documents but to turn the story into one of Wikileaks' responsibility rather than the complications of American military action. At the start of 2010, the US Government had been slow to respond to Wikileaks' presentation of the "Collateral Murder" video, showing the apparent gunning down of Iraqi civilians by American planes. This time would be different.

This weekend, however, there was a twist in the Obama Administration's tale. A 16 August letter from Secretary of Defense Robert Gates to Senator Carl Levin, the head of the Armed Services Committee, emerged: "The review [by the Department of Defense] to date has not revealed any sensitive intelligence sources and methods compromised by the disclosure."

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Israel-Palestine: Direct Talks in Paris Postponed

A statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office says this Thursday's summit in Paris with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has been postponed: "Following consultations, the parties concerned have agreed to decide on another date." 

Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat said on Saturday, "The continuation by Israel of settlement activity ruins all peace efforts, be they those of President Barack Obama or those of President Nicolas Sarkozy." He added that the Palestinian Authority had "not received an official invitation, giving a date, for such a meeting".

On Friday, Netanyahu approved plans to build 238 new homes in east Jerusalem, provoking anger from the Palestinian Authority and criticism from both the US and France.

On another front, Netanyahu confirmed that talks with Hamas, through a German mediator, for the release of detained US soldier Gilad Shalit have resumed. 

Shalit has been held by Hamas since a cross-border raid in 2006.