Afghanistan: NATO Assists "Taliban Leaders" in Talks with Government (Filkins)

Talks to end the war in Afghanistan involve extensive, face-to-face discussions with Taliban commanders from the highest levels of the group’s leadership, who are secretly leaving their sanctuaries in Pakistan with the help of NATO troops, officials here say.

The discussions, some of which have taken place in Kabul, are unfolding between the inner circle of President Hamid Karzai and members of the Quetta shura, the leadership group that oversees the Taliban war effort inside Afghanistan. Afghan leaders have also held discussions with leaders of the Haqqani network, considered to be one of the most hard-line guerrilla factions fighting here; and members of the Peshawar shura, whose fighters are based in eastern Afghanistan.

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A Beginner's Tour of the US Elections: The "Progressive Idea" and the Senate Race in Wisconsin

Last year there seemed little likelihood there would even be a close contest in Wisconsin. The incumbent Russ Feingold is a Democrat who has been a Senator for eighteen years, in a state that has voted Democrat in the last six presidential elections (56% for Obama in 2008). Moreover, Feingold, co-sponsor of the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Refrom Act, is a liberal politician known for sticking to his progressive values. He voted against the Patriot Act setting out internal security measures after 9-11, opposed the war in Iraq, and has been a consistent voice against the influence of money in elections. His campaign has not been damaged by any personal scandal, and the general reputation he enjoys is of an honest and independent politician in Washington.

And yet, the latest polls show him trailing his Republican opponent Ron Johnson by an average of 7% in the polls. The prominent FiveThirtyEight electoral website currently forecasts a 94% chance of a Republican win. This is all the more surprising because the Republican candidate has no record in politics, deciding to run for his first electoral office last year as a response to the health care reform that Feingold supported.

Johnson, a successful businessman, has managed to turn the electorate’s disillusionment with the progressive ideology of President Obama to his advantage. Though not as nationally well known as Sharron Angle in Nevada, Rand Paul in Kentucky, or Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, he is fighting on the same platform that government is out of control, run by politicians who regard the people as their servants instead of the other way around.

It is Wisconsin that best illustrates the nation’s discontent with the progressive view of government.

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The Latest from Iran (20 October): Meanwhile, The Economy....

2010 GMT: The Khamenei Road Trip. The Supreme Leader's office has now released photographs of Ayatollah Khamenei's meeting today with several clerics, including Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi (left in the photo below):

1735 GMT: The Supreme Leader and the Clerics (Round 2). A bit more of a substantial success for Ayatollah Khamenei this afternoon, at least according to Fars. He met more clerics, notably Grand Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi. Other Ayatollahs who were present included Sobhani, Sadegh Larijani, Ahmad Khatami, Ebrahim Amini, and Ka'bi.

A bit of confusion, however, as Fars illustrates the encounter with a photograph from Tuesday's reception for the Supreme Leader. Neither IRNA nor Press TV carries a report on today's meeting. Nor, as far as I can tell, does Khamenei's official website.

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Israel-Palestine: Netanyahu Rejects Obama's Plan A --- No Plan B Before Mid-November (Rozen)

Behind the scenes, the Obama administration is still absorbing the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has to date rejected a proposed American compromise package that would have offered various security and other assurances to Israel in exchange for a 60-day renewal of a partial West Bank settlement freeze that expired last month. 

The American team is said to be frustrated and upset at Netanyahu’s dismissal to date of the package, which was drafted by the NSC’s Dennis Ross in close consultation with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Israeli negotiator Yitzhak Molho. 

“They’re really upset,” one Washington Middle East hand in close contact with administration officials said Tuesday. “At the end of the day, they made this incredibly good faith effort to keep Bibi at the table.” And Bibi proved as yet unwilling to budge."

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Iran Analysis: How is the Supreme Leader's Mission Going in Qom?

Khamenei's quest to shore up his religious authority and legitimacy is manifestly failing.

The next nine days of the visit could see further ectastic crowds, plenty of low and middle-ranking clerics, and even more provocative statements by the Supreme Leader, who yesterday compared the participants of last year's massive protests to "microbes" and railed once again against the plotting "enemy". But it is an almost foregone conclusion that the main aim of Khamenei's visit, meeting eye-to-eye with those high-evel clerics who have repeatedly fired salvos against his rule and that of President Ahmadinejad, will evaporate into the religious air of Qom.

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Israel Analysis: Washington Gives Way to West Jerusalem on "Strategic Dialogue"

On Tuesday, American and Israeli officials issued the Joint Statement on the U.S.-Israel Strategic Dialogue.

As you might notice, there is no emphasis on the unfinished and damaged peace process except a naive "commitment to the pursuit of lasting peace". Instead, we have a clear threat: Iran. A threat that is big enough to overcome any commitment to peace.  

The other significant feature is the emphasis on the "continued efforts by the international community." In other words, instead of a military option, diplomatic measures are the prescription to meet the "grave concern to both countries and the entire international community" The message to Israel is clear: no airstrikes on Tehran.

Some might argue that Washington may want to steer Israel away from a drumbeat on the need to use the military option against Iran by maintaining a low-profile, gentle pressure on the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. If this is the case, the Obama Administration can only defer its pile of troubles on Israeli-Palestinian conflict to tomorrow. Giving the green light to an Israeli foreign policy, anchored on the urgent need to solve the Iranian issue first and foremost, means bypassing every opportunity to renew the peace process with the Palestinians.

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Turkey Analysis: Is Ankara Now in a "Radical Axis of Evil"? (No.)

Our question for today: is Turkey still a pro-Western country looking forward to entering the European Union. Or has Ankara, "unfortunately, joined the radical axis formed led by Iran and supported by Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah".

Let's start with a statement by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on 11 October:

We also had wonderful, friendly relations with another country, with military cooperation, with full diplomatic relations, with visits by heads of state, with 400,000 Israeli visitors to that country. That country is called Turkey. 

What prompts Netanyahu to use the past tense? Is it because Turkey ejected Israel from a planned international air force exercise or because Turkey and Syria held joint military exercises in late April? Is it because Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told off Israeli Prseident Shimon Peres over Israel's bloody war in Gaza in World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2009 or because Turkey did not stop the Freedom Flotilla which tried to break the Gaza siege?

Is it because Turkey conditionally accepted NATO's planned anti-missile system, saying that  it should not be presented as a defence against Iran? (On Friday, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said: "We do not perceive any threat from any neighbour countries and we do not think ouur neighbors form a threat to NATO.") Or is it because of a joint Turkish-Chinese air-force exercise held two weeks ago? 

If I may offer an alternative to the "radical axis" thesis at this point....

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The Latest from Iran (19 October): The Khamenei Road Show

2000 GMT: Spot the Cleric. OK, here's one publicity photo, put out by the Supreme Leader's visit. Two of the clerics are Ayatollah Nouri Hamedani and Ayatollah Javadi Amoli.

Mehr has more photographs, from Khamenei's office, of a larger gathering.

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Responding to Obama's Wars: The Battle Within over US Counter-Insurgency

David Fitzgerald, a specialist on American counter-insurgency campaigns past and present, writes his first article for EA:

Bob Woodward’s latest chronicle of the post-9/11 White House’s deliberations, Obama's Wars, has enriched our understanding of the present administration’s process of decision-making on Afghanistan.  However, as much as the book reveals, in typical Woodward fashion, the inner workings of the national security bureaucracy, it also is just as significant in shedding light on the counterinsurgency community’s thoughts on the war in Afghanistan.  The reactions of members of that community to Obama’s Wars says much about the contradictions and tensions inherent in counterinsurgency.

Does this hint at a change of heart over the US intervention and military campaign?

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US Politics 101: A Beginners' Guide to The System

With Congressional elections two weeks away, EA US Politics correspondent Lee Haddigan launches a series of articles to place them within the complexities of the American political system:

The United States is a representative democracy. This means that the "people" (the demos) elect representatives to reflect the interests of voters. Those elected form a government which, in theory, a servant of the voters and not the other way round.

America has a bicameral legislature. The body that votes for the country’s laws is composed of two Houses independent of each other. The approval of both is needed for a proposed bill to become law. The lower body of Congress, the House of Representatives, consists of 435 members, representing in theory an equal number of US citizens. The upper House, the Senate, has 100 members: two each from every state.

Elections for all 435 seats of the House of Representatives take place every two years. Senators are elected for a term of six years, so every two years a third of the upper House's seats are contested.

These mechanics are based on the constitutional theory that for a government to avoid descending into tyranny, there must be checks and balances.

That theory has solid historical foundations. The independence of the US was declared in 1776 against a British Parliament which had supposedly become tyrannical, and as America ratified its constitution 16 years later, France was about to witness a Reign of Terror that validated fears of what could happen in the name of a democratic majority.

Hence, the American respect for checks and balances, and, most importantly, the idea that government is conducted best as an exercise in considered compromise.

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