Israel-Palestine Analysis: The Water Conflict (El Houry)

The Israeli government views its unrestricted access to West Bank and Gazan water as a non-negotiable right, central to its security. Since 1967, the strict implementation of various military orders by the Israeli occupying forces has amounted to a deliberate policy of denying Palestinians access to water at internationally recognized minimum levels. Moreover, attempts by the Israeli government to create favorable ‘facts on the ground’, either through settlement expansion or through the construction of a wall that cuts through the West Bank’s most fertile areas, is seen as justified within the context of this security-driven agenda. These actions not only flout international law, but contribute to a situation that makes reaching an equitable two-state solution an ever more remote prospect. And while such a position is seen as necessary for maintaining Israel’s security, it comes at the expense of regional stability, which could prove to be much more dangerous in the long term for all parties concerned.

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Iran Feature: The Power of a Green Non-Movement? (Rejaee)

Like all social movements, the Green Movement is dynamic, ebbing and flowing as the political climate allows. With the election results as a catalyst, the people'S quotidian subversion erupted into a collective display of discontent. Now, with the repressive organs of the state cracking down on dissenters, the demonstrators have dispersed into a landscape of everyday resistance. The Iranian government has battered and bruised the Green Movement, but there is no indication that it has corrupted the ideals of its participants. Today, the Green Movement resides in soosool boys' decadent hair styles, daughters' rejection of domesticity for education and employment, flirtations between youths, and other indirect -- but not insignificant -- forms of resistance. In today's Iran, collective opposition has not been crushed. It waits to be awakened from hibernation.

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Iran and Sanctions Video: Scott Lucas and Sadegh Zibakalam on Al Jazeera's "Inside Story"

EA's Scott Lucas and Professor Sadegh Zibakalam of Tehran University discuss sanctions and Iran on Al Jazeera's "Inside Story":

Iraq Special: A Summary of All the "Exclusives" from the Wikileaks Documents

Wikileaks will soon release almost 400,000 documents on the US war in Iraq since 2003. Late last night, under an agreement with the organisation, certain news outlets were allowed to run advance stories based on the material. The similarities and contrasts in the coverage, even amongst these privileged few, is striking.

The New York Times features "A Grim Portrait of Civilian Deaths in Iraq" but makes clear at the outset that "most civilians, by far, were killed by other Iraqis", citing "systematic sectarian cleansing" as the leading cause. Then the report, by Sabrina Tavernise and Andrew Lehren turns to the American military, adding a striking bit of comment linking to another US intervention: "The documents also reveal many previously unreported instances in which American soldiers killed civilians --- at checkpoints, from helicopters, in operations. Such killings are a central reason Iraqis turned against the American presence in their country, a situation that is now being repeated in Afghanistan."

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The Latest from Iran (23 October): A Victory in Qom?

1835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Safar Mousavi, the head of Foulad Shahr city council in Isfahan Province, has been released on bail after 40 days in prison.

1820 GMT: Subsidy Watch. More warnings for the Government as it may or may not introduce subsidy cuts....

Ali Asghar Yousefinejad, the chair of Parliament's Industry Commission warns that subsidy refunds will not cover rising costs. Ayande News adds substance: new gas bills will be 800,000 Toman (about $800) but the support payments are only 1/10th of this.

1815 GMT: Economic Transparency? Adel Azar, the head of Iran's Statistics Center has declared, that if the government accepts the offer, the Center will publish the data on inflation.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Wikileaks (and the New York Times) v. the Supreme Leader

No question about the big development in Iran yesterday. The Supreme Leader, after four days of effort, finally got a significant political and religious triumph --- as opposed to his PR victory on Tuesday with his reception by Qom's crowds --- when Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani agreed to meet him. Ayatollah Khamenei's website put out a spread of photographs of the encounter, and state media --- even Press TV, which had been silent on the Supreme Leader's meetings with clerics --- posted short reports of the meeting, which also included Ayatollahs Hossein Nouri Hamedani, Naser Makarem Shirazi, Mousa Shobeiri Zanjani, Jafar Sobhani, and Abdollah Javadi Amoli. 

Still, the press coverage has been fairly muted, and the Supreme Leader faces a list of clerics who are holding out against public photographs and private talks: maraje such as Ayatollahs Mousavi Ardebili, Vahid Khorasani, Bayat Zanjani (who raised a smile with his excuse that he was attending his niece's wedding and visiting his mom in Zanjan), and Sane'i are still refusing to show allegiance.

Meanwhile, the non-Iranian press is likely to pay little or no attention today. That is because Tehran has been swept up in the high-profile release by Wikileaks on documents on the US war in Iraq since 2003.

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Iran Interview: The State of the Economy (Kaveh Ehsani)

The economy of Iran is in a deep recession, which has only been exacerbated by the recent round of sanctions passed by the United Nations, the European Union and the United States. Aside from more immediate concerns, the Iranian government is also grappling with several deep-rooted problems. First, it is dealing with the burden of a highly politicized, hybrid economic system that combines state, private, and semi-private ownership. The state exerts substantial control over the economy both directly and through semi-private entities such as foundations (bonyads), mutual funds, pension funds and companies linked to military organizations. Estimates vary as to exactly how much of the economy is under state control, partly because the semi-private sector doesn’t operate in a transparent fashion, but it is safe to say that these institutions dominate the economy. Since they are run by politically affiliated appointees, as opposed to managers hired according merit and competence, their activities tend to be highly politicized. Ideally, these institutions should be run according to transparent social and with economic rather than factional political aims, but any major changes will require resolute decisions by a government that is currently not prepared to pay the political cost of unpopular policies.

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Afghanistan: Taking Apart the Latest "We're Routing the Taliban" Story

On Wednesday, Carlotta Gall of The New York Times posted a glowing account of progress in the war against insurgents in southern Afghanistan, "

The unadulterated story of victory --- "The Taliban will have a hard time returning to areas they had controlled in the province that was their base" --- was accompanied by other cheers of We're Winning, almost nine years after the US had supposedly won in Afghanistan.

Specialist observers, however, thought that the real victory might be that of a propaganda offensive by the US military, and they were not ready to join in the celebration. Joshua Foust wrote, "This disconnect between military spin and ground reality is not only dangerous, it is insulting."

We asked EA's new Afghanistan correspondent David Fitzgerald to look over the evidence and give us an analysis.

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The Latest from Iran (22 October): The Surprise of the Unexpectedly Slow

2045 GMT: The Khamenei Road Trip. Fars and Mehr are reporting a big breakthrough for the Supreme Leader: his Friday meeting with clerics included Grand Ayatollah Safi Golpayegani.

No details are given.

1930 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Mahdieh Mohammadi, the wife of detained Iranian journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi, has said that the Ministry of Intelligence has denied her husband a furlough.

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Iran Eyewitness: Watching the Supreme Leader's Mission in Qom (Azadi)

This is why the trip to Qom, Khamenei's first in more than a decade, is significant: this Supreme Leader is unprecedented in trying to obtain the highest clerical status through the use of mass media. Crowds are shown welcoming him, he gives a speech to a packed square, and he is exalted through the state's broadcasting and print outlets. 

But a true Grand Ayatollah does not establish his credentials through TV, newspapers, and computer screens. His legitimacy comes from reputation and the informal declarations of followers when they are away from the video cameras. A Grand Ayatollah cannot announce his authority; it is conferred upon him by the respect of peers and worshippers.

So Khamenei can pursue his campaign in Qom, which now enters its fourth day, with more and more publicity, but he cannot succeed unless there is a shift in his reception behind closed doors as well as on the television screens.

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