Afghanistan: Taliban on the Run? (Gall)

The Afghan Taliban are showing signs of increasing strain after a number of killings, arrests and internal disputes that have reached them even in their haven in Pakistan, Afghan security officials and Afghans with contacts in the Taliban say.

The killings, coming just as the insurgents are mobilizing for the new fighting season in Afghanistan, have unnerved many in the Taliban and have spread a climate of paranoia and distrust within the insurgent movement, the Afghans said.

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Afghanistan Feature: An Election (and More) Gone Wrong (Gall/Khapalwak)

The inauguration of a new Parliament in just weeks threatens to worsen ethnic tensions and instability and to drive an important part of President Hamid Karzai’s political base into the arms of the insurgency, Afghans and foreign officials warn.

Despite numerous obstacles, NATO and American officials had pushed strongly for parliamentary elections in September, gambling that a successful vote would show progress in the war and new growth in Afghanistan’s democracy.

Instead insecurity, disaffection and fraud, particularly in the south, left the country’s largest and most important ethnic group, the Pashtuns, with sharply reduced representation. The results have been vigorously disputed for three months and have pushed the country to the brink of a constitutional crisis.

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Afghanistan: Oops! "Taliban Leader" in Peace Talks is An Imposter (Filkins/Gall)

NOTE: Not an Actual Photo of the ImpostorFor an intriguing follow-up assignment, consider: How did this story come to the reporters' attention and why?

For months, the secret talks unfolding between Taliban and Afghan leaders to end the war appeared to be showing promise, if only because of the appearance of a certain insurgent leader at one end of the table: Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, one of the most senior commanders in the Taliban movement.

But now, it turns out, Mr. Mansour was apparently not Mr. Mansour at all. In an episode that could have been lifted from a spy novel, United States and Afghan officials now say the Afghan man was an impostor, and high-level discussions conducted with the assistance of NATO appear to have achieved little.

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Afghanistan: General Petraeus v. President Obama, Part 542 (Bumiller)

While EA today is looking at the complications of the US counter-insurgency campaign, killing its allies and strengthening the "hard-line" Taliban, Elisabeth Bumiller of the New York Times is looking at the chatter in Washington, "Some Skeptics Questioning Reports in War Zone".

There's a wicked irony in Bumiller's article. It is pretty clear that her piece is fed by the White House and its allies, fighting back against military "spin", but the Times reporter never mentions how the media effort of US commander David Petraeus --- which has caused the fidgeting in the Obama camp --- was re-launched three weeks ago.

The reporter who trumpeted that the US military was "routing" the Taliban in southern Afghanistan was Carlotta Gall. Her newspaper? The New York Times.

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Afghanistan Corrected: US Officials "Did We Say Victory? We May Have Exaggerated."

Was it really only 11 days ago that Carlotta Gall of The New York Times, fed the line by the US military, was declaring that the Taliban had been "routed" and that high-profile pundits like Slate's Fred Kaplan were effusive about the superiority of US intelligence and rockets?

Was it only this past weekend that General David Petraeus, the US commander in Afghanistan, was proclaiming a key victory in southern Afghanistan?

Oops.

This from Greg Miller in today's Washington Post:

An intense military campaign aimed at crippling the Taliban has so far failed to inflict more than fleeting setbacks on the insurgency or put meaningful pressure on its leaders to seek peace, according to U.S. military and intelligence officials citing the latest assessments of the war in Afghanistan.

Escalated airstrikes and special operations raids have disrupted Taliban movements and damaged local cells. But officials said that insurgents have been adept at absorbing the blows and that they appear confident that they can outlast an American troop buildup set to subside beginning next July.

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Afghanistan: Taking Apart the Latest "We're Routing the Taliban" Story

On Wednesday, Carlotta Gall of The New York Times posted a glowing account of progress in the war against insurgents in southern Afghanistan, "

The unadulterated story of victory --- "The Taliban will have a hard time returning to areas they had controlled in the province that was their base" --- was accompanied by other cheers of We're Winning, almost nine years after the US had supposedly won in Afghanistan.

Specialist observers, however, thought that the real victory might be that of a propaganda offensive by the US military, and they were not ready to join in the celebration. Joshua Foust wrote, "This disconnect between military spin and ground reality is not only dangerous, it is insulting."

We asked EA's new Afghanistan correspondent David Fitzgerald to look over the evidence and give us an analysis.

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