Turkey Analysis: The Growing Debate over a Presidential System

Although Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has made it clear that the new Constitution will only be drafted after the parliamentary elections of June 2011, heated public debate over the document continues. 

In April, Erdoğan’s said, "Turkey could adopt a presidential system" if the people supported the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the 2011 general elections. Then, welcoming the results of the 12 September referendum on constitutional change, the Prime Minister handed the responsibility for drafting the new constitution to Burhan Kuzu, an MP from AKP and the head of the Constitutional Commission in the Parliament, who is known for his frequent references to the adoption of Erdogan's favoured system. 

Although Ömer Çelik, AKP's Deputy Chairman, has said that transition to the presidential system is currently not on the party’s agenda, the issue is likely to mark the post-election process in Turkish politics, with AKP putting forth the proposal to the public after the June 2011 elections. In those elections, AKP will be more populist than ever as it pursues consensus; the other major parties will re-align themselves to meet this strategy, especially if they cannot devise an alternative project.

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The Latest from Iran (12 October): Rafsanjani Hits Back

1945 GMT: Opposition Challenge. Ardeshir Amir Arjomand, a senior advisor to Mir Hossein Mousavi, has called on Green Movement activists to “bravely” reflect the “oppression” of the Iranian people to the “international community and all international organisations".

Arjomand, who is now outside Iran, called the President a "delusional liar" and declared, “Mr Ahmadinejad is not the representative of the Iranian people and does not have the right to speak on behalf of the Iranian people in the international stage.” Claiming that Ahmadinejad's impending visit to Lebanon was to gain domestic advantage, Arjomand asserted, “Unfortunately, Ahmadinejad is used to exploiting—[both] politically and personally—the pains and sufferings of others [both] by means of deceitful slogans and actions.”

Arjomand also spoke out against sanctions:

The international community must not punish [Iranian] workers, teachers and deprived sectors of the Iranian nation --- who live under the tyranny of an oppressive state --- because of the irresponsible adventurism of a president who lacks legitimacy among the people....Contrary to baseless claims, the sanctions will have a clear effect on the day-to-day lives of the people;therefore the Green Movement wants an end to the economic sanctions. The harm resulting from these sanctions have a direct impact on the situation of the people’s livelihoods and will create basic problems for using national resources.

Arjomand then tried to turn the Israeli issue against the government, saying that West Jerusalem government was “eager [for] and in need” of Ahmadinejad’s positions, using them to divert attention from the Palestinian struggle for justice, and claiming that the Green Movement “condemns” Israel’s acts of hostility in “breaching human rights and human dignity": “Our support for the Palestinian people is considered to be a support for justice and people as well as a religious and moral duty.

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Israel's Man on a Mission: Foreign Minister Lieberman vs. Europeans

On Sunday, President Shimon Peres, Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak welcomed French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Moratinos.

The Europeans asked Israeli decision-makers to make their mark in history by achieving a two-state solution through direct talks. Kouchner told Peres, "We're optimistic. It takes time, it always takes time in this region, but this is a delicate moment where we can make an effort and make progress in direct talks and in peace."

Moratinos added, "We are optimistic in light of what happened in the last month, despite the difficulties and concerns of the two sides, but both sides sent a clear and strong message to the international community that they want to keep up the momentum, keep an open door to direct talks, and they are ready to move on to significant matters."

Then a more dramatic moment came. In a separate meeting, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman gave a response to the Ministers that was similar to Barak's in substance but far different in tone. Lieberman explicitly accused the European Union of "appeasing" Iran and other radicals and of leaving its ally alone as they did before the beginning of the Second World War. "We have no intention of becoming 2010's Czechoslovakia and will insist on Israel's vital interests," said Lieberman.

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Iran Snap Analysis: Is Supreme Leader Throwing Rafsanjani Under the Bus?

Cartoon by Nikahang KowsarUPDATE 1755 GMT: An EA correspondent updates us on the Supreme Leader's trip to Qom....

It will begin sometime between Friday and next Tuesday, in part to avoid a clash with President Ahmadinejad's trip to Lebanon, which is expected on Wednesday.

Khamenei will have some public meetings with people in Qom such as families of martyrs, Basij militia, clerics, and the Society of Teachers and Researchers of Qom. However, his meetings with senior clerics will be private and without press coverage.

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This morning we noted the report of the Islamic Republic News Agency that the Supreme Leader had made a "final and definite" opinion over control of Islamic Azad University, Iran's largest university system. The private system has been overseen by officials linked to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, but earlier this year the Ahmadinejad Government sought to take charge.

Well, we've checked with correspondents, and Ayatollah Khamenei's declaration is a knockout victory for Ahmadinejad. Indeed, the verdict --- that the rights of the IAU are determined by the Supreme Leader and that it falls under the Government's jurisdiction --- may point to a even bigger political decision by Ayatollah Khamenei.

Between now and a week on Tuesday, the Supreme Leader will journey to Qom, the key religious centre of Iran, for a stay of several days. Formally, he will commemorate the birthday of Reza, Shi'a's 8th Imam, but the politics go far beyond that ceremony.

Khamenei's trip is no less than an appeal to the maraji, the highest clerics of Iran, to support him amidst the political, economic, and international challenges that Tehran is facing.

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Israel: Deputy Foreign Minister Ayalon Explains "Loyalty Oath" for Non-Jews

Those non-Jews who become citizens need to fully appreciate that the State of Israel is the national expression of the self-determination of the Jewish people.

Those who object to the new formula are doing untold damage to the sincerity of the Zionist mission, and make our case harder to explain.

Only by adhering to and proudly reinforcing our national character, not only to those who wish to join our people, but also to the nations of the world, will we validate our presence. Many nations actively promote their national mission, whether it is “American exceptionalism” or France’s “liberté, égalité, fraternité.”

Every nation has its national ethos, and Israel’s “light unto the nations” can only be expressed through its Jewish character, which we must state clearly and unequivocally.

Those who disparage clearly describing Israel as the eternal aspiration of the Jewish people provide ample ammunition to those who seek the end of our national existence.

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Pakistan: More Questions About A Closed Border and Burning Tankers (Fair)

why haven't attacks on the supply line to Afghanistan been more common? It's reasonable to argue that a dedicated and sensible insurgent would target these trucks along the way from Karachi to Torkham or to Chaman in Pakistan and from Torkham or Chaman to their final destinations within Afghanistan. This would be simple to do as the Pakistani security forces do not protect those privately-owned trucks and much of the route in Afghanistan winds through narrow mountain passes.

The answer is simple: trucking mafias and organized criminal and insurgent networks are all making money off of this system. The system of payoffs is elaborate yet elegant. Pashtuns dominate the trucking mafia in Pakistan and represent enormous financial interests in the fundamental integrity of the supply line system. The drivers and their companies must pay off Pakistani police and any other relevant government officials to secure "safe" passage and to resolve any "paperwork complexities."

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Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood to Stand in Parliamentary Elections (Hassan)

Nobel Prize winner and reformist leader Mohamed ElBaradei's calls for boycotting parliamentary elections received a major blow Saturday when the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's most important opposition party,and announced that it would compete in the November poll.

The Brotherhood's supreme guide, Mohamed Badie, told a news conference Saturday that 98% of the group's Politburo members voted to take part in elections many see as tipped in favor of the ruling National Democratic Party. The decision was another indication of the divisions and squabbles among opposition groups that have been hampered for years by conflicting agendas.

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Iran Feature: "The Other Neda" Finds Her Political Voice (Froissart-Dreux)

An Iranian woman mistaken for Neda Agha-Soltan, whose death in post-election protests last year became a symbol of Iran's opposition movement, has found her own political voice after being forced into exile.

"I have a personal link to her (the other Neda) because her death somehow caused a serious destruction of my life. Not her immediate death but the consequences of her death," Neda Soltani told AFP.

"I cannot claim that I am a political person. However I can say that after being targeted by such a huge case, I cannot remain indifferent to the politics of my country and what is happening there."

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Are Israel's West Bank Settlers "Human Shields and Live Bait"? (Narwani)

Logic dictates that the physical presence of half a million Jews in illegal settlements and outposts --- connected through a maze of Jewish-only roads --- has stealthily destroyed the possibility of a land-for-peace compromise. And Israel's government has spent $17 billion on settlements since occupation began.

But here's something we don't talk about readily. Why would consecutive Israeli governments heavily subsidize and incentivize the relocation of young families - women and children - into hostile environments? Why would Israel - which claims security dangers wherever there are Palestinian populations - deliberately and systematically place its Jewish civilian population in "harm's way?"

The settlers are Israel's human shields and live bait.

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The Latest from Iran (11 October): Persistence

1900 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. As news emerges of the Supreme Leader's smack-down of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani over Islamic Azad University, Rafsanjani's brother Mohammed Hashemi has tipped off more worries. He declared that their party Kargozaran had committed no mistakes which would justify shutting it down, but "radical currents" could not bear parties like Kargozaran and want to eliminate them.

1830 GMT: Bazaar Strikes. Tagheer claims that the gold market in Mashhad is still on strike despite threats of prosecution of sellers.

1810 GMT: Today's All-is-Well Moment. First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, meeting province governors, has said people should believe that the government has more foreign currency and gold reserves than normal.

Rahimi added that subsidy cuts aim at just distribution of wealth, and there will be no inflation, as that is only a rumour spread by enemies.He claimed the challenge of sanctions will be met by activating projects in the South Pars gas and oil field, creating 1.1 million new jobs. 

Indeed, Rahimi is so confident that --- like the President --- he has filed a lawsuit against conservative MP Ali Motahhari and several other legislators.

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