EA correspondent Josh Shahryar will be live-blogging the 2nd Parliamentary elections in post-2001 Afghanistan throughout today, bringing in reports of the vote, possible irregularities, and incidents at and beyond the polls.
As Afghanistan votes today, a tangled but essential view of the politics in Washington is offered through an article by Helene Cooper, David Sanger, and Thom Shanker in The New York Times, as all sides in the bureaucratic fight try to get the reporters in their corner.
EA WorldView has noted since Obama's first week in the White House how the US military --- and in particular General David Petraeus, the US commander in Afghanistan --- has tried to impose its view of escalation on a President who was supposedly "cautious" about ramped-up American involvement.
Well, this latest round is rather muddled, at least in Cooper/Sanger/Shanker's blow-by-blow narrative. However, if you strip away the mantras about the White House's deliberations and worries about the outcome of the strategy, the winner emerges:
It's Petraeus.
When President Obama descended into the White House Situation Room on Monday for his monthly update on Afghanistan and Pakistan, the new top American military commander, Gen.David H. Petraeus, ticked off signs of progress.
Come December, when the president intends to assess his Afghan strategy, he will be able to claim tangible successes, General Petraeus predicted by secure video hookup from Kabul, according to administration officials.
Dr Ali Akbar Mahdi writes a guest post for EA WorldView to answer the question of a leading Washington journalist, "Is there a rift between the Supreme Leader and the President?":
All along, Ayatollah Khamenei's support for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been tactical and not based on what the clerics often refer to as "aqd-e okhovvat" (a tradition of "brotherhood contract", established by Prophet Mohammad in Medina).
Khamenei will support Ahmadinejad as long as the advantages of such support outweigh its disadvantages. However, Khamenei is starting to see how the obedient president is enjoying power and is slowly outgrowing his own skin. That is why different signals are sent out from Khamenei's lower associates to the President, such as letters from the Supreme Leader's offices and critical editorials in newspapers like Kayhan and Jomhouri Islami.
Yet, assured of a ride to the end of presidency, Ahmadinejad has begun acting more unpredictably and controversially than expected. Khamenei knows that he invested too much in him in the last presidential election –-- an investment which much of it has turned to be a loss. For his own sake as the leader above the political fray --- a priority which former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and other clerics have been highlighting to him --- Khamenei needs to distance himself from Ahmadinejad.
1903 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Peyke Iran reports that Journalist and human rights activist Abolfazl Abedini has been severely beaten in Karoun Prison.
Abedini has been arrested twice since the 2009 elections and was sentenced this spring to 11 years in prison.
1900 GMT: The US Detainee. Sarah Shourd, released earlier this week from Evin Prison on a guarantee of $500,000 bail, has left Oman for the US.
1750 GMT: The Conservative Reaction Begins. Alef has responded to the Ahmadinejad statement: both the President and his Ministers are accountable to the Parliament, and that Parliament has the authority to censure a Minister and impeach if necessary.
"Yasaman Baji", an Iranian journalist in Tehran, writes for the Institute for War and Peace Reporting:
The Iranian security forces stepped into action to prevent opposition protesters coming out onto the streets and hijacking the annual anti-Israel demonstration last week.
The last Friday of Ramadan is designated Quds (“Jerusalem”) Day in Iran, and is used by the regime as a ritual show of anti-Israeli and anti-American sentiment.
Last year, however, the opposition Green Movement took advantage of the officially-sanctioned presence of crowds on the street to make their own appearance, to the consternation of the government. They challenged official policy on the Palestinian cause – normally a taboo subject – by shouting, "No to Gaza, no to Lebanon, may my life be sacrificed for Iran."
This year, the intelligence agencies were ready, and took action to forestall any public appearance by the opposition.
EA correspondent Josh Shahryar with the latest rolling news from the second elections for Afghanistan's parliament. The LiveBlog is also available on Josh's personal site, The Daily Nite Owl:
1845 GMT
The Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan has expressed concern about "extensive irregularities" and called on the Independent Election Commission to ensure the integrity of the rest of the electoral process.
Insecurity and violence shaped the voting process in large swaths of the country. FEFA observers reported serious security incidents around at least 389 polling centers. Polling centers were blown up in Kunar, Khost and Kandahar and captured in Laghman, Kunduz and Badghis, shutting down voting in the communities those centers served.
Violence by candidates, their agents and local powerbrokers was reported in several areas and so were a worrying number of instances of government official interfering in the voting process to sway the results in favor of their chosen candidates.
Ballot stuffing was seen to varying extents in most provinces, as were proxy voting and underage voting.
Washington’s “Wise” Plan?
As the deadline for Israel's construction freeze in the West Bank approaches, US Mideast special envoy George Mitchell hinted at a tactical manoeuvre to keep the Palestinian Authority at the table for direct talks after 26 September: "We think it makes sense to extend the moratorium.”
What kind of extension could this be, however? Relatively short, at best, given the position of Israel's Netanyahu Government. The American hope is to keep some momentum in discussions, avoiding both an Israeli walkout and the labelling of the Palestinians as "rejectionist".
As soon as the Arab League responded by saying that they would back Ramallah if Israel resumes construction from 26 September, Washington refined its manoeuvre. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton talked to Israel’s Channel 10 on Thursday: "Where we sit now it would be useful for some extension, it would be extremely useful. I don't think a limited extension would undermine the process going forward if there were a decision agreed to by both parties."
Anna Badkhen writes for Foreign Policy:
I returned to Northern Afghanistan in April to document for Foreign Policy the implacable spread of the Taliban in the region (the dispatches I wrote were recently published as an ebook, Waiting for the Taliban); I left the region in May. At the time, the Taliban were terrorizing travelers in Kunduz and Baghlan provinces, along the main route that NATO uses to bring in supplies from Tajikistan; launching swift attacks on government forces in Takhar Province; and flagging down traffic at impromptu checkpoints on the ancient roads of Balkh.
How to measure the progress of the war since my visit? Violence has been metastasizing across the north. A string of bombings in Kunduz killed at least 19 Afghan police officers in the last five weeks. Last month, 10 Western aid workers, members of a medical team, were slaughtered in Badakhshan -- the remote redoubt of the legendary Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Shah Massoud, where the Taliban did not dare venture even when they were ruling most of the country from Kabul. It was the largest massacre of relief workers in Afghanistan in years. The United Nations, which last winter considered parts of the north volatile, now regards a large swath of the region as extremely dangerous for its personnel.
2035 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Foreign Policy Power Play (cont.). So the Iranian President has given his nationally-televised speech in advance of his trip to the United Nations.
Nothing unexpected, as Ahmadinejad gave the ritual thrashing of US foreign policy --- misguided towards Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, and Afghanistan --- and declared that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is "under Western pressure" as it reports on Iran's nuclear programme. His symbolic play was to associate himself with Persia's great rulers by referring to how he brought back the Cyrus Cylinder to Iran from the British Museum (albeit only on loan for four months).
An Iranian activist has the best blow-by-blow summary.
2030 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Didi Remez, writing for Israel's Yediot Ahronoth, reports on Italy's growing trade with Iran:
As a graphic illustration of Islamophobia defeated, nothing beats what happened in Amarillo, Texas, [on 11 September]. David Grisham, the wacko director of one Repent Amarillo organization, who had planned his own Koran-burning session in support of Gainesville, Florida, pastor and instant global celebrity Terry Jones, was about to commit the act in front of around 200 people when, out of nowhere comes...
...the unlikeliest of heroes; Jacob Isom, a 23-year-old, bespectacled local skateboarder. Isom himself described what happened to the Amarillo-Globe News: "I snuck up behind him and took his Koran, he said something about burning the Koran, I said 'Dude you have no Koran,' and ran off." The righteous skateboarder even had time to add to a startled Grisham, "You’re just trying to start holy wars," then handed the unburned Koran to a local Muslim leader.
Watch the video....
Saturday, September 18, 2010 at 8:29