MENA House: How Big Is El Baradei's Challenge in Egypt?

Christina Baghdady looks at hope and reality in the "El Baradei challenge" in Egypt:

Since the return of Mohammad El Baradei, Nobel Peace Prize winner and former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to Egyptian soil, he’s become a popular figure in the political arena.

Well...."popular" might not quite be the correct word. He’s certainly attracted much attention in the media. Journals cover El Baradei’s activities on a daily basis. Questions remain, however. Is he simply another Ayman Nour, the political activist and challenger to President Mubarak who was imprisoned for his efforts? Is he favoured by the US Government? What does el Baradei have to offer?

This week, a number of arrests took place, all connected with support for El Baradei. Ahmed Mahanna, the director of Dawin, a publishing house in Egypt, was arrested because he distributed copies of "El Baradei and the dream of a green revolution". (Mahanna was soon released after "questioning".)


Egyptian state broadcaster ESC made what an exceptional effort not to draw any attention to El Baradei’s attendance at the Coptic Orthodox Easter Mass. The camera focused everywhere else but on him.

Yet if people are being put under a microscope for showing signs of support for El Baradei, even as official media looks away, then surely that is self-defeating for the Government. It indirectly and directly proclaims that he poses some kind of legitimate opposition, that he actually stands some chance of becoming the future president of the land of the Pharaohs.

Is El Baradei's impressive CV enough to bring about extensive change in Egypt’s political, economic and social atmosphere? He told an interviewer, "Change will have to come from within the country.....There is no one coming in on a white horse that is going to [do that] for you." El Baradei still has never openly declared he will run for Presidency anytime in the near future but says instead he just wants to encourage reform from below.

In Egypt's political arena, there is little "legitimate" opposition, hence the desperation from certain sectors of the public to show vehement support for El Baradei. Other opposition movements and figures such as Kefaya, Ayman Nour, and the banned Muslim Brotherhood have lacked that extra factor of global influence, respect, and recogntion, accompanying a persona untainted except in the eyes of American neo-conservatives.

However, problems arise from El Baradei's realistic advice to the nation. The former IAEA chief’s Facebook group and his party, the National Association for Change, are accessible to the public. That supports his theory of bringing about change from below, but in Egypt's political culture, that’s a revolution. No wonder then in the less-than-subtle actions of the police and security forces these days.

El Baradei’s call for "fair elections" is all well and good, backed by supra-national entities such as the UN, European Union, and human rights bodies. but there’s no other political party with experience in government to support him. Al Wafd, Tagammu, and the Democratic Front are all part of an opposition coalition movement which has not established a firm base in the electorate.

That brings us back to Square One. El Baradei claims not to run for the Presidency, but when one promotes what the public want to hear and desperately need, then he has to head for the top job, whether he wants to or not. Yet Dr Amr El Shobaki, political analyst at Al Ahram, points out that El-Baradei's manifesto signals that his decision to contest the presidential election of 2011 ris contingent on guarantees for a fair election being in place:

The manifesto makes it clear that El-Baradei is interested in change and sowing the seeds of political reform and democracy rather than in becoming president of Egypt one day. It is also clear that he hopes Egyptians will rally behind him to achieve change.

Even more intriguing, what is the US opinion on El Baradeii’s current movements in Egypt? When push comes to shove, that is what will make the ultimate difference. In the 2005 elections, the Muslim Brotherhood collected 88 seats in Parliament, a fifth of the legislature. Yet the US made little effort to recognise the largest opposition party. If Washington takes the same approach to the former Nobel Peace Prize winner, there is very little chance that he ever receive the award of Egyptian President.