MENA House: Protests "En Vogue" in Egypt

It’s become a daily event.  On most evening chat shows, whether it be 10 masa’an (10 in the Evening), al hayat al youm (Life Daily), 90 Minutes, or 48 Hours, protests are reported on regular, yes daily basis.  It’s totally "en vogue" these days.

Who can argue that democracy does not exist in Egypt? Of course it does, protests go on everywhere and anywhere.  Therefore the Egyptian public have a right to speak out their opinions.  A sign of a healthy society?

MENA House: An Interview with Head of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood

However, on 18 April, the discussion on public protests hit (no intent on the pun) the People’s Assembly (Maglis al shaab).  An internal dispute between two leading MPs broke out. Fists were thrown, unpleasantries were exchanged.


As Mona El Shazly commented on her evening show 10 Masa’an, this has become commonplace, something to which viewers and commentators have become accustomed.  The real cause for concern was the nature of the topic that caused inflammatory reactions: the National Democratic Party called on the Interior Ministry to shoot protestors, referring specifically to demonstrations on 6 April.

Activists who took part in those protests included the 6^th of April Youth Movement, the leftist Tagammu Party, the liberal Ghad Party, and the National Association for Change (NAC), and Mohamed El Baradei's pro-reform coalition, as well as members of other groups.

Protesters had planned to walk from downtown Cairo's Tahrir Square to the nearby People’s Assembly in an attempt to emulate the 6 April 2008 general strike and to protest Egypt's longstanding Emergency Law.  However, security forces brought the demonstrations to a halt.

Days before, the security forces had warned the 6^th of April Movement that the demonstration was a security threat: protests in Tahrir Square in the centre of Cairo effectively brings all of the city to a standstill. According to media reports in Egypt, ninety-three activists were arrested and ten police officers were injured.

Back to the "debate" in the People’s Assembly:

A meeting was held to discuss the human rights violations committed on 6 April.  Adding salt to the wound, a National Democratic Party (NDP) member Nassh’at al Qassas said, "I don’t know why the Interior Ministry is so lenient with protestors....Rather than using water hoses to disperse the crowd, the police ought to use live rounds to shoot them."

El-Qassas' NDP colleague, Ahmed Abu Aqrab, alleged that members of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) parliamentary bloc had falsified reports about police violations to gain media coverage. The claim led to a fistfight between Abu Aqrab and MB parliamentarian Mohamed el-Biltagy.

Vulgar exchanges between the two parties continued, with Abu Aqrab claiming that the MB receive illegal funding from abroad, to which MB member el Biltagy responded, "What do you mean? I am better than you and the likes of you!"

Another Brotherhood MP, Hamdi Hassan, showed el-Qassas a shredded t-shirt that allegedly belonged to a protester who had participated in the 6 April demonstrations.  Heated discussions continued in the People’s Assembly and later became the main topic of the evening news discussion programmes.

Assistant Interior Minister Hamed Rashid said the law allowed police to employ force against anyone attempting to disrupt public order or attack security personnel. He added that those who attacked the security forces, who were there to "maintain calm", cannot be Egyptian patriots and therefore deserve what was coming to them.

The US State Department responded by renewing calls for democratic reform.  Spokesperson P. J. Crowley said, "All individuals must exercise their basic freedoms freely." He continued, "All Egyptians must play a genuine role in an open and transparent political process," adding that more people should be involved in the political system.

In a statement last week the US Government eliminated funding for civil society in Egypt:

Under the Obama Administration, the US government acquiesced to demands from Egypt and Bolivia to eliminate all funding for independent civil society and continues the policy of restricting U.S. assistance to groups to those that receive the approval of the Egyptian government.

Whilst the US government uses democratic reform as leverage for funding to Egypt, this is not the main cause for concern.  Civil groups continue to receive funding from other sources such as the Middle East Partnership Initiative and the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor.

The real worry is over three points: the enraged reaction in the People’s Assembly, hardly the action of role models in society; NDP members encouraging forces to use live rounds on their fellow Egyptian citizens in the name of "maintaining security’"; and the prospects of what might occur in the next influential protest.

MENA House: An Interview with Head of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

Christina Baghdady notes a special political appearance on Egyptian television:

On Wednesday, Egyptian broadcast journalist Mona el Shazli conducted a rare and exclusive interview with Dr Mohammed Badi’a, the leader of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.

Several issues were discussed, notably the internal disputes within the MB and its reflections on the media. Amidst reported disputes between the MB’s "members of Parliament and reformists", members of the Brotherhood’s Guidance Bureau have submitted a folder of documents for an official formation a political party to the organization’s parliamentary faction. This, however, has caused significant “distress” to the Shura Council, who consider themselves as the Brotherhood’s highest authority.

In the interview, Badi’a claimed that these reports were unfounded. He said the MB has appointed media consultants for the political party to communicate with the press in an honest manner.


The interview also considered an "official" statement from the MB supporting a Presidential bid by Mohammad El Baradei. Badi'a said that the political group are supporting el Baradei as he had made similar proposals to those put by the MB in recent years (although he did not specify the content of those proposal). Badi’a asserted that the Nobel Peace Prize winner was able to move the "stagnant" water. a reference which commentators may analyse as revitalising the opposition.

Badi’a said that his party do not intend to field a candidate in the election, as their primary aim is to ensure a "fair" leader comes to power. Badi'a adds that the MB's electorate has expanded to "everyone" and that it seeks political leadership adopting Islam for all people to create a "fair" society.

Badi'a called for a free and fair election and said he had no objection to Gamal Mubarak, son of President Hosni Mubarak, running for the presidency as long as he did so in a legitimate manner. The head of the MB, however, made clear his objections to the banning of the MB, as he said there were no legal grounds. Badi'a claimed that the MB are not a threat to the security of society; their forthcoming media campaign would reflect on their civil activities, such as building Islamic schools, providing jobs, and developing the activities of those who wish to join their party.

Mona el Shazli concluded the interview by asking, "Out of the possible scenarios, what direction do the Brotherhood intend to take: to isolate themselves from the political community, to reform themselves internally, or to make a truce with the regime for the current period?" Dr Bada’i rejected these scenarios, saying instead that the MB will push for economic reform and look to play a significant role in change for the good of Egypt.

MENA House: How Big Is El Baradei's Challenge in Egypt?

Christina Baghdady looks at hope and reality in the "El Baradei challenge" in Egypt:

Since the return of Mohammad El Baradei, Nobel Peace Prize winner and former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, to Egyptian soil, he’s become a popular figure in the political arena.

Well...."popular" might not quite be the correct word. He’s certainly attracted much attention in the media. Journals cover El Baradei’s activities on a daily basis. Questions remain, however. Is he simply another Ayman Nour, the political activist and challenger to President Mubarak who was imprisoned for his efforts? Is he favoured by the US Government? What does el Baradei have to offer?

This week, a number of arrests took place, all connected with support for El Baradei. Ahmed Mahanna, the director of Dawin, a publishing house in Egypt, was arrested because he distributed copies of "El Baradei and the dream of a green revolution". (Mahanna was soon released after "questioning".)


Egyptian state broadcaster ESC made what an exceptional effort not to draw any attention to El Baradei’s attendance at the Coptic Orthodox Easter Mass. The camera focused everywhere else but on him.

Yet if people are being put under a microscope for showing signs of support for El Baradei, even as official media looks away, then surely that is self-defeating for the Government. It indirectly and directly proclaims that he poses some kind of legitimate opposition, that he actually stands some chance of becoming the future president of the land of the Pharaohs.

Is El Baradei's impressive CV enough to bring about extensive change in Egypt’s political, economic and social atmosphere? He told an interviewer, "Change will have to come from within the country.....There is no one coming in on a white horse that is going to [do that] for you." El Baradei still has never openly declared he will run for Presidency anytime in the near future but says instead he just wants to encourage reform from below.

In Egypt's political arena, there is little "legitimate" opposition, hence the desperation from certain sectors of the public to show vehement support for El Baradei. Other opposition movements and figures such as Kefaya, Ayman Nour, and the banned Muslim Brotherhood have lacked that extra factor of global influence, respect, and recogntion, accompanying a persona untainted except in the eyes of American neo-conservatives.

However, problems arise from El Baradei's realistic advice to the nation. The former IAEA chief’s Facebook group and his party, the National Association for Change, are accessible to the public. That supports his theory of bringing about change from below, but in Egypt's political culture, that’s a revolution. No wonder then in the less-than-subtle actions of the police and security forces these days.

El Baradei’s call for "fair elections" is all well and good, backed by supra-national entities such as the UN, European Union, and human rights bodies. but there’s no other political party with experience in government to support him. Al Wafd, Tagammu, and the Democratic Front are all part of an opposition coalition movement which has not established a firm base in the electorate.

That brings us back to Square One. El Baradei claims not to run for the Presidency, but when one promotes what the public want to hear and desperately need, then he has to head for the top job, whether he wants to or not. Yet Dr Amr El Shobaki, political analyst at Al Ahram, points out that El-Baradei's manifesto signals that his decision to contest the presidential election of 2011 ris contingent on guarantees for a fair election being in place:

The manifesto makes it clear that El-Baradei is interested in change and sowing the seeds of political reform and democracy rather than in becoming president of Egypt one day. It is also clear that he hopes Egyptians will rally behind him to achieve change.

Even more intriguing, what is the US opinion on El Baradeii’s current movements in Egypt? When push comes to shove, that is what will make the ultimate difference. In the 2005 elections, the Muslim Brotherhood collected 88 seats in Parliament, a fifth of the legislature. Yet the US made little effort to recognise the largest opposition party. If Washington takes the same approach to the former Nobel Peace Prize winner, there is very little chance that he ever receive the award of Egyptian President.

MENA House: Changing of the President in Egypt?

EA is pleased to announce a new feature, "MENA (Middle East-North Africa) House". Complementing Ali Yenidunya's "Middle East Inside Line", MENA House will give you the latest on politics and society from Cairo through Tripoli to Casablanca.



In the first entry, Christina Baghdady takes a look at political developments that raise the prospect of change in the Egyptian system:

Middle East Inside Line: Gaza Tension; Palestinian State by 2011?; Israel's Hebron Show

According to state media reports, President Hosni Mubarak has returned to Egypt after surgery at Heidelberg Hospital in Germany three weeks ago. On Saturday, dozens of senior officials, including the newly-appointed top Sunni cleric Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, Coptic Orthodox Pope Shenouda III, and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman welcomed the President and his wife Suzanne in the Red Sea resort of Sharm El Sheikh.


State reports claim that Mubarak was undergoing an operation to remove his gall bladder and remove a "benign" tumour of his duodenum. However, commentators are debating whether it is something more serious, giving the length of time that Mubarak spent in hospital.

While Mubarak was away from the motherland, there was an air of anxiety, "What will happen if Mubarak does not return?" Abdel Aziz Husseini, spokesman for the protest movement Kefaya, told Reuters, "Egypt is witnessing a period of instability and the president's absence, especially for health reasons and surgery, has heightened people's worries."

Now that Mubarak is back on home turf, the question is "What will happen next?" The President has neither confirmed nor denied whether he will be running for a sixth term, and little light has been shed on other potnential candidates. Whilst critics of the Mubarak regime claim that his son, Gamal,is being groomed to be the future President of Egypt, Gamal has repeatedly and vehemently denied such claims.

Now an underdog candidate has entered the limelight: Mohammed El Baradei, founder of the pro-reform coalition, the National Association for Change (NAC), Nobel Peace Prize winner, and former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency. He received a hero’s welcome at the airport on his return to Egypt and appeared to have galvanised a stale opposition movement. However, he has said he would only run for the top job if there were changes in the Constitution with the amendment of election regulations.

El Baradei is showing signs of flexing his political muscles with a sustainable and legitimate opposition party. According to Hamdi Qandil, the media spokesman for the pro-constitutional reform movement, El Baradei is currently looking for an office in downtown Cairo to host meetings with politicians and activists. The aim of this: to unite all opposition, including the Muslim Brotherhood.

On 31 March, Ikhwan Web (the official Muslim Brotherhood website) stated that El Baradei and Saad el Katatni, the head of the Muslim Brotherhood’s parliamentarian bloc, met and came to an agreement that political change was needed to enact widespread reforms. In a recent interview Muslim Brotherhood leader Abdel Moneim Abul Fotouh claimed that it is "haram" (forbidden) to vote for the National Democratic Party (NDP), the President’s political party. He said that the Brotherhood is a popular and political force in a corrupt and tyrannical atmosphere and a political society that deals with everyone through security forces.

The Latest from Iran (1 April): Out Like a Lamb?

1905 GMT: Head of Judiciary Gets Told Off in Qom. Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, visited leading clerics in Qom today, including Ayatollahs Safi Golpaygani, Makarem Shirazi, and Shabiri Zanjani, and he had a bit of a tough time.

Safi Golpaygani declared that even one day's delay in releasing detainees is not acceptable in Islam. He then asserted:

If external forces interfere in the judiciary and influence the judges and they fail to follow the truth in their sentencing, the independence of the judiciary will be compromised....All sentencing and imprisonments should follow the basic laws of Islam

1805 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mehdi Karroubi has visited the family of detained film director Jafar Panahi.

1800 GMT: Putting the Supreme Leader to a Referendum? Payvand has an even stronger interpretation of Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi's statement (see 1520 GMT) that Islamic rule is subject to the will of the people:

If the Imam were alive today and some people were to tell him that due to post-Revolution generational developments in society, the majority are probably no longer in favour of "Velayat Faghih" and we want to gauge the support of people at this time, the Imam would have agreed with a referendum.

UPDATED Iran Politics and Music Video: “Karroubi” and the Arrest of Sasi Mankan
UPDATED Iran Appeal: Japan’s Deportation of Jamal Saberi
Iran: Preventing Tehran from “Going Nuclear” (Ramazani)
The Latest from Iran (31 March): Nuclear Chatter & Political Prisoners

1745 GMT: The Nuclear Line. Still no  significant word out of China over today's meetings with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, but Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has put out a holding statement. According to Press TV, Mottaki, speaking in Algeria, said Tehran is still ready to swap its low enriched uranium for higher enriched fuel under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).


However, Mottaki did not make clear --- at least in the Press TV report --- if "within the framework of its proposed initiatives" had to be a swap inside Iran or could be in an outside country.

1540 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, the son of Hossein Abdeh-Tabrizi, former secretary-general of Tehran Stock Exchange and director of the banned newspaper Sarmayeh, has been detained for the last three months with no news about his status or possible charges.

Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, is a Ph.D. student in Political Science at Durham University in Britain, had returned to Iran to visit his family, but his passport was confiscated upon his arrival at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport and he was arrested a few days later.

1530 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard have visited the family of Shiva Nazar Ahari, the journalist and human rights activist detained since December.

1520 GMT: Clerical Interventions. Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi has declared that Islam should not be installed with force and dictatorship. Today (12 Farvardin) should be a day of all Iranians and all ethnic and religious minorities.

Hojatoleslam Rasul Montajabnia, the Vice President of the reformist Etemade Melli party, says that a leadership without a majority vote cannot survive. He added that the late Ayatollah Khomeini never promoted a rulership minus the people.

1245 GMT: Discussing Iran. Since yesterday afternoon, I have been in a conversation with the readers of the Race for Iran blog over political and legal issues, from the June election to protests to the place of "rights" in the crisis. After clearing away the white noise of those who post in denunciation rather than discussion, there are some interesting exchanges with those who take the position that the Ahmadinejad Government is legitimate and should be engaged by the Obama Administration.

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reporters Without Borders has issued a statement:

The lives of many journalists are now in danger. Emadoldin Baghi, Badrolssadat Mofidi, Mehdi Mahmudian and Mohammad Sadegh Kabovand are seriously ill. We call for their unconditional and definitive release. We appeal to the Iranian authorities to act so that these lives are no longer at risk. We will hold them responsible for any misfortune.

1030 GMT: Sanctions 2+2=?. So, on the one hand, Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is in China for talks (see 0500 GMT) and, on the other, Reuters is spinning Beijing's acceptance of a path to tougher sanctions:

China has agreed to serious negotiations with Western powers about imposing new sanctions on Iran and President Hu Jintao will attend a multi-nation summit on nuclear security in Washington this month, officials said....The agreement to discuss sanctions marked a significant shift by China after months of fending off Western nations' demands for concerted pressure on Tehran.

Personally, I think it's too early to make a call on China's next steps. For the moment, it's all messages to all people, as in this from the Chinese Foreign Ministry's spokesman (paraded hopefully by Iran's state media): "On the Iranian nuclear issue, China will continue to endeavor toward a peaceful resolution."

0640 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Mohsen Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has denied allegations that he has a villa in Switzerland.

0635 GMT: Nowruz Visits. Former Deputy Minister of Interior Mostafa Tajzadeh, still on his temporary release from Evin Prison, and his family paid a visit to former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was also a long-time post-election detainee, and his family.


0630 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz prints the collage of journalist Azar Mansouri, made with cardboard and toothpaste while she was detained in Evin Prison.

0615 GMT: And The Reformists Speak. The pro-Larijani Khabar Online also, for the second time in recent weeks, discussed politics with reformist Shahrbanou Amani. Amani assserted that "hardliners" should create favourable conditions for political competition, because free parties are necessary for a developed society. Amanid added that reformists should regrtoup and take advantage from the promises of the "hardliners", demanding that they be fulfilled.

0555 GMT: The Conservative Challenge. Speaking to Khabar Online, conservative activist Mojtaba Shakeri Mojtaba Shakeri has declared that "fundamentalists" have to prove they are capable of ruling Iran.

0545 GMT: The Nuclear Issue. While we await news from China, Rah-e-Sabz offers an overview of the current situation on Iran's nuclear progamme and international manoeuvres over uranium enrichment and sanctions.



0515 GMT: Media Nuclear Fever. Yet another example of a prominent newspaper losing perspective on the Iranian nuclear issue....

The Guardian of London, framing an interview with the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, headlines, "Cautious reports on Tehran nuclear programme 'were framed to avoid war'".

Dramatic stuff. Only problem? Nowhere in the article does an El Baradei quote indicate that he altered reports for political reasons. Here's what he actually says:

We are a technical organisation totally embedded in a political setting and we have to be aware of the background and political implications of our work....

"When I was working at the agency we would literally go through 30 drafts or so of each report before it was ready, because I knew every word could be used politically and in a very subjective way. Every word was weighed to make sure that it was immune from being abused, and I always wanted to make sure that we were not overstating or understating, but rather just stating the facts....

I think the tone was set by me, that's true. But all the facts were in every report, unvarnished.

0505 GMT: The Subsidy Fight. Member of Parliament Mohammad Kosari has repeated his compromise plan to resolve the dispute between the Majlis and the President over subsidy cuts and spending. Invoking the Supreme Leader's recent remarks "asking the government to adhere to law and the Majlis to help the administration", Kosari has suggested an extra $30 billion for Ahmadinejad, the halfway point between the $20 billion authorised by the Parliament and the $40 billion sought by the President.

0500 GMT: Completing the saying, the title today is a bookend to that of 1 March, "In Like a Lion?", but it seems appropriate as we come to the end of the Nowruz holiday. We'll be watching to see if the quiet phase in Iranian politics continues or if there is a resumption of manoeuvres, amongst the opposition, the Rafsanjani camp, and conservative challengers to the Government.

For the moment, however, the nuclear issue still holds the headlines. In what looks to be a significant (and quickly-planned) trip, Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, is in China today. Take your pick of speculations on the motive: the Iranians are approaching Beijing with a request to hold off on sanctions and/or to put forth a deal for uranium enrichment, the Chinese have summoned a representative from Tehran to put out a message. No hint in Iranian state media yet of developments.