The Latest from Iran (1 April): Out Like a Lamb?

1905 GMT: Head of Judiciary Gets Told Off in Qom. Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, visited leading clerics in Qom today, including Ayatollahs Safi Golpaygani, Makarem Shirazi, and Shabiri Zanjani, and he had a bit of a tough time.

Safi Golpaygani declared that even one day's delay in releasing detainees is not acceptable in Islam. He then asserted:

If external forces interfere in the judiciary and influence the judges and they fail to follow the truth in their sentencing, the independence of the judiciary will be compromised....All sentencing and imprisonments should follow the basic laws of Islam

1805 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mehdi Karroubi has visited the family of detained film director Jafar Panahi.

1800 GMT: Putting the Supreme Leader to a Referendum? Payvand has an even stronger interpretation of Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi's statement (see 1520 GMT) that Islamic rule is subject to the will of the people:

If the Imam were alive today and some people were to tell him that due to post-Revolution generational developments in society, the majority are probably no longer in favour of "Velayat Faghih" and we want to gauge the support of people at this time, the Imam would have agreed with a referendum.

UPDATED Iran Politics and Music Video: “Karroubi” and the Arrest of Sasi Mankan
UPDATED Iran Appeal: Japan’s Deportation of Jamal Saberi
Iran: Preventing Tehran from “Going Nuclear” (Ramazani)
The Latest from Iran (31 March): Nuclear Chatter & Political Prisoners

1745 GMT: The Nuclear Line. Still no  significant word out of China over today's meetings with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, but Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has put out a holding statement. According to Press TV, Mottaki, speaking in Algeria, said Tehran is still ready to swap its low enriched uranium for higher enriched fuel under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).


However, Mottaki did not make clear --- at least in the Press TV report --- if "within the framework of its proposed initiatives" had to be a swap inside Iran or could be in an outside country.

1540 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, the son of Hossein Abdeh-Tabrizi, former secretary-general of Tehran Stock Exchange and director of the banned newspaper Sarmayeh, has been detained for the last three months with no news about his status or possible charges.

Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, is a Ph.D. student in Political Science at Durham University in Britain, had returned to Iran to visit his family, but his passport was confiscated upon his arrival at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport and he was arrested a few days later.

1530 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard have visited the family of Shiva Nazar Ahari, the journalist and human rights activist detained since December.

1520 GMT: Clerical Interventions. Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi has declared that Islam should not be installed with force and dictatorship. Today (12 Farvardin) should be a day of all Iranians and all ethnic and religious minorities.

Hojatoleslam Rasul Montajabnia, the Vice President of the reformist Etemade Melli party, says that a leadership without a majority vote cannot survive. He added that the late Ayatollah Khomeini never promoted a rulership minus the people.

1245 GMT: Discussing Iran. Since yesterday afternoon, I have been in a conversation with the readers of the Race for Iran blog over political and legal issues, from the June election to protests to the place of "rights" in the crisis. After clearing away the white noise of those who post in denunciation rather than discussion, there are some interesting exchanges with those who take the position that the Ahmadinejad Government is legitimate and should be engaged by the Obama Administration.

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reporters Without Borders has issued a statement:

The lives of many journalists are now in danger. Emadoldin Baghi, Badrolssadat Mofidi, Mehdi Mahmudian and Mohammad Sadegh Kabovand are seriously ill. We call for their unconditional and definitive release. We appeal to the Iranian authorities to act so that these lives are no longer at risk. We will hold them responsible for any misfortune.

1030 GMT: Sanctions 2+2=?. So, on the one hand, Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is in China for talks (see 0500 GMT) and, on the other, Reuters is spinning Beijing's acceptance of a path to tougher sanctions:

China has agreed to serious negotiations with Western powers about imposing new sanctions on Iran and President Hu Jintao will attend a multi-nation summit on nuclear security in Washington this month, officials said....The agreement to discuss sanctions marked a significant shift by China after months of fending off Western nations' demands for concerted pressure on Tehran.

Personally, I think it's too early to make a call on China's next steps. For the moment, it's all messages to all people, as in this from the Chinese Foreign Ministry's spokesman (paraded hopefully by Iran's state media): "On the Iranian nuclear issue, China will continue to endeavor toward a peaceful resolution."

0640 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Mohsen Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has denied allegations that he has a villa in Switzerland.

0635 GMT: Nowruz Visits. Former Deputy Minister of Interior Mostafa Tajzadeh, still on his temporary release from Evin Prison, and his family paid a visit to former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was also a long-time post-election detainee, and his family.


0630 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz prints the collage of journalist Azar Mansouri, made with cardboard and toothpaste while she was detained in Evin Prison.

0615 GMT: And The Reformists Speak. The pro-Larijani Khabar Online also, for the second time in recent weeks, discussed politics with reformist Shahrbanou Amani. Amani assserted that "hardliners" should create favourable conditions for political competition, because free parties are necessary for a developed society. Amanid added that reformists should regrtoup and take advantage from the promises of the "hardliners", demanding that they be fulfilled.

0555 GMT: The Conservative Challenge. Speaking to Khabar Online, conservative activist Mojtaba Shakeri Mojtaba Shakeri has declared that "fundamentalists" have to prove they are capable of ruling Iran.

0545 GMT: The Nuclear Issue. While we await news from China, Rah-e-Sabz offers an overview of the current situation on Iran's nuclear progamme and international manoeuvres over uranium enrichment and sanctions.



0515 GMT: Media Nuclear Fever. Yet another example of a prominent newspaper losing perspective on the Iranian nuclear issue....

The Guardian of London, framing an interview with the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, headlines, "Cautious reports on Tehran nuclear programme 'were framed to avoid war'".

Dramatic stuff. Only problem? Nowhere in the article does an El Baradei quote indicate that he altered reports for political reasons. Here's what he actually says:

We are a technical organisation totally embedded in a political setting and we have to be aware of the background and political implications of our work....

"When I was working at the agency we would literally go through 30 drafts or so of each report before it was ready, because I knew every word could be used politically and in a very subjective way. Every word was weighed to make sure that it was immune from being abused, and I always wanted to make sure that we were not overstating or understating, but rather just stating the facts....

I think the tone was set by me, that's true. But all the facts were in every report, unvarnished.

0505 GMT: The Subsidy Fight. Member of Parliament Mohammad Kosari has repeated his compromise plan to resolve the dispute between the Majlis and the President over subsidy cuts and spending. Invoking the Supreme Leader's recent remarks "asking the government to adhere to law and the Majlis to help the administration", Kosari has suggested an extra $30 billion for Ahmadinejad, the halfway point between the $20 billion authorised by the Parliament and the $40 billion sought by the President.

0500 GMT: Completing the saying, the title today is a bookend to that of 1 March, "In Like a Lion?", but it seems appropriate as we come to the end of the Nowruz holiday. We'll be watching to see if the quiet phase in Iranian politics continues or if there is a resumption of manoeuvres, amongst the opposition, the Rafsanjani camp, and conservative challengers to the Government.

For the moment, however, the nuclear issue still holds the headlines. In what looks to be a significant (and quickly-planned) trip, Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, is in China today. Take your pick of speculations on the motive: the Iranians are approaching Beijing with a request to hold off on sanctions and/or to put forth a deal for uranium enrichment, the Chinese have summoned a representative from Tehran to put out a message. No hint in Iranian state media yet of developments.

Comments

[kiterunner]

I think being calm is better than being stressful n living somewhere like a battlefield!
we need logical n peaceful atmosphere so that we can speak n promote

[Catherine]

Iranian abroad: Germany/Berlin

In Berlin, there are now officially 4,236 Iranians living in a city of some 3 million. Earlier this month, Iranian Ambassador to Germany Alireza Sheikh Attar said that Germany is the third target country -- after the United States and Canada -- for migrating Iranians.

Iran's Green Movement and the post-election crisis have revitalized the Iranian opposition abroad. But the new influx of members and ideas -- supporters range from liberal-minded democrats to monarchists to communists -- has also revealed deep divisions about the movement's ideology and tactics.

This feature on RFE/RL takes a look at the Iranian community in Berlin:
http://www.rferl.org/content/Irans_Opposition_Abroad_Swells_But_Lacks_Direction/1998665.html

[Arshama]

Out like a lamb?

Hmm, referring to the Green movement in March (In like a lion, out like a lamb), I have tried to gather some arguments, which prove the opposite:
1) The Chaharshanbeh desaster for the SL, whose fatwa against this popular ceremony on Nowruz eve was met with widespread and much louder celebrations throughout the country.
2) Reformists (Green) newspaper revival: Shargh and especially Etemad (Karroubi) will reappear soon, after bans have been lifted during the past weeks.
3) Expansion: a new Green outpost was reportedly created in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan province in SW-Iran.
4) Green victims: files have been suited against Kahrizak officials, to be held at two different civilian and military courts; according to Tehran's general prosecutor filing of action for several victims of street protests is pending.
5) Green news releases: even through the holidays the daily publication of Nowruz visits of the families of detained or temporarily released reformers by Moussavi, Rahnavard, Karroubi and Khatami proved the movement's unity and solidarity.
6) Budget & subsidy plan: even though reformists have no majority in parliament, the refusal of AN's $40 billion spending is certainly an advantage for the Greens.
7) No support for AN from neighbouring countries: during their recent conference Arab states showed no interest in supporting the regime against UN sanctions etc.

Obviously major grievances remain: hundreds of protesters are still imprisoned, without charges and hence without a chance to defend themselves. The same goes for student activists like Majid Tavakkoli, journalists like Emadeddin Baghi, human rights activists like Shiva Nazar Ahari or union leaders like Mansour Osanlou.
The release of all political prisoners and lifting the ban from other reformist newspapers must remain a central concern of the movement's political agenda.

Arshama

[Catherine]

For all those missing juicy tales like that of the elaborate assassination in Dubai of Hamas official Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, ProPublica has published a detailed story based on Italian court documents about the Milan ring of arms dealers and Iranian spies who were illegally selling ammunition, helicopters and other military hardware to Iran. The style is appropriately "film noir".

"Using layers of front companies and smuggling pipelines run by Iran’s increasingly powerful security forces, Iranian buyers prowl black markets in search of suppliers ready to take a risk for a profit... "
http://www.propublica.org/article/italy-arrests-highlight-iranian-arms-efforts

[Catherine]

Borzou Daragahi at latimes.com has an article on the different ways prominent economist Saeed Laylaz's children have reacted to their father's imprisonment:
Two Iranian teens, two reactions to their father's jailing
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-kids1-2010apr01,0,3934609.story?track=rss

[Arshama]

Catherine,

Thank you for this interesting article. First of all, the number of Iranians in Berlin is much higher, there are officially registered 4,236 refugees, but their real number is also much higher, as reported.
I agree with the general conclusion on deep divisions about the movement’s ideology and tactics, which reflects fairly well the divisions within the expat community. However these divisions have certainly been pushed by IRI agents for 30 years, whose headquarters are now located in Berlin (embassy), with offshoots in other major German cities, constantly targeting all oppositional Iranian groups and communities.

In fact one of the Green movement's major achievements is uniting all these separated and segregated Iranian communities behind a common demand, i.e. a free Iran. Now "free" can be interpreted differently, from free elections within the system to freeing the country from this system, but this difference is not the only problem.
Unfortunately some groups, and especially Iranian members of a certain German party are trying to hijack this spontaneous movement to their benefit, i.e. for expanding their good contacts with the reformists.
I witnessed several demonstrations, in which these people asked us not to use anti-regime posters or slogans, because it "would hurt the movement in Iran".
As such they prove to be submissive helpmates of a murderous system.

Even though I accept different opinions on the movement's ideology within the expat community, any genuine opposition should be committed to fundamental principles of Human Rights -- otherwise it is not worth its designation.

Arshama

P.S. An error occurred in my posting #3: Sistan and Baluchistan lies in SE Iran of course.

[kiterunner]

Hi Guys.
I made a new blog written in English today.
I hereby invite u to come. I'll be happy.

http://PersianPacifist.blogspot.com

[Edited by moderator to include blog address]

[Catherine]

RE 1030 GMT: Reuters is spinning Beijing’s acceptance of a path to tougher sanctions

China - not surprisingly - is not playing ball: Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang would not confirm reports that China was willing to consider new sanctions, saying only that it was "concerned about the current situation."

More interesting is what this Chinese Iran expert said:
"Of course Iran would be anxious right now," said Yao Jide, an Iran expert at Yunnan University's School of International Relations in southern China. "China will take this opportunity to urge Iran to make transparent its work on the program as bound by the treaties of the IAEA."

Yao doubted that Iran's envoy could take a tough stance during his talks in Beijing.

"There's nothing that they can use to pressure China. China's energy programs have only started in Iran. And China has many programs in Iraq. There are many choices for China. And Iran knows perfectly well that it's not like they are the only oil supplier for China."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100401/ap_on_re_as/as_china_iran_4

[kiterunner]

Arshama,

Etemad was a reformist newspaper but it was not for Mr.Karroubi. Karroubi's paper name was: Etemade Melli(National trust)

[danial]

Congratulations Kiterunner on your new blog, Ill be looking forward to your posts.

I think you misspelled "Persian" in "Perisan Pacific"

[kiterunner]

Danial,

thank u a lot.
yes i'll correct it.

[Robert M. Armstrong]

Of course the Iranians are nervous. If the Russians should find a link between Iranian revolutionaries and the Chechnyan rebels Iran is in big trouble. Even if that link is in Afghanistan and Pakistan's northwest territories Iran is still in trouble. After all the United States is the power in the region fighting against terrorism. And the problem for Iran is Muslim terrorists will take her support but are into "own goals" to the point where they will attack whom they choose whether it hurts their sponsor or not.

[kiterunner]

Hello again Guys.

I've made a new English blog. the address is:

http://PersianPacifist.blogspot.com

u'll make me happy if u come n comment.
And I ask the administrator to correct my link address of my previous comment here if possible

Thanks.

[Mike Dunn]

All updated kiterunner- good luck with the blog.

[Arshama]

Mike,

Perhaps I am wrong, but it appears to me as if you have added the search function to EA recently. Thank you for this possibility of direct research.

@ 1800 GMT: Putting the Supreme Leader to a Referendum?

The main problem of Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi and his fellow travelers is that they can only refer to Khomeini, who altered the original republican Constitution to his and the clergy's benefit by imposing the concept of "velayate faghih".
31 years later the Shiite clergy has all reasons to fear of being eliminated completely from politics by a mafia-like clerical minority (Mesbah Yazdi and his cronies) and the IRGC.

If Iranian clerics had a grain of honour, they would have condemned the Ashura killings immediately, but nothing happened (with a few exceptions). Now they are facing the same problem of exclusion as the Green movement or rather the silent (and silenced) Iranian majority, and really believe they can change the course of events by asking for a referendum on the "Rule of the Jurist".

Mousavi Tabrizi's proposal is a sign of weekness, not of strength, otherwise he would have organised a concerted action against the SL. But obviously the mullahs are so much accustomed to their easy living at the expense of the people, that none of them really cares...

The outcome of actual developments will be an aggravated political and economic stalemate, perhaps even an agony or a military coup by the IRGC.
1389 (2010) certainly will be a year of perseverance as announced by Mousavi, and I have little doubt that this leadership without a majority cannot survive.

Arshama

[perry1949]

It would be interesting if someone pushed the idea of a referendum as our dear, sweet leader would, of course try to over rule it. With the IRGC on his side that would lead to a very interesting fight. Since, as of now, he has the final say in what is legal then how do you go about it?

[ange paris]

Arshama
I think they have always refered to Khomeyni not to have any problems on their path, which is right; even Karroubi and Moussavi have done it; it's to have open hands to do what they have to do; you know, in such atmospher it's very hard to be dissident; I am sure they are freeing ( or at least, thinking about seriousely) prisoners and all these trips to Ghom are not innocent, earlier for AN and now Larijani; In the other hand they know that all the people inside and abroad are against them; I have seen the face of Jalili in China today, he was really anxious and not serene at all; they are going to have the sanctions on their back, plus people inside who don't trust them , don't agree with them because of their legirimacy ( or more the regime 's ) and for what has happened during those 9 months; IRGC needs people to run the economy of the country; they are crippled with debt and financial situation is very bad; so, be sure, there won't be a coup d'etat because of all these problems ( if not nobody will work in the country and economically Iran will collapse ), they seek a sort of reconciliation hence all their "come and go" to Ghom; personnally, I am optimistic because I think that they have understood and finally realised that they can't fight alone against all the planet, even their own people don't like them, even their friends like China and Russia give them their back and they have to charm people again; I hope as soon as we will have good news about their change of behavor .

[danial]

re: 1905 GMT: Head of Judiciary Gets Told Off in Qom...

Why would Larijani go to Qom anyway? whose imprisonment was he trying to prolong, Ahmadinejad or Khamenei critics?

[ange paris]

Perry
If your sweet leader do this and decide having a referendum, it will be a sweet page of history ! and he will stay as a "heros" .

[Mike Dunn]

Arshama- we had search a while ago then it mysteriously disappeared. Catherine (I think) noticed it was missing so I put it back. Let us know if it disappears again, our sidebars aren't hugely reliable at the moment...

[danial]

@Ange Paris...

"I think they have always refered to Khomeyni not to have any problems on their path"

Khomeini was one of the greatest charismatic leaders* in history. He knew how to blend faith and country together.

this SL, on the other hand can't transition from religion into politics very well. Either it's because he can't or he has other ambitions that don't rely on domestic support. Though I think its safe to say the former.

*(note the term "charismatic leader" is a philosophical term for someone that leads a people under the banner of an ideology religion, race... so don't go all "your pro government" on me)

[ange paris]

Arshama look at this on the facebook of Moussavi:

" Everyone is entitled to choose his or her destiny. How can our ancestors be the deciders for us? How can those who were around 80 to 100 years ago determine the destiny of a nation that would be born in future? This is a nation that its destiny should be determined by itself and at this time is saying that we do not want this king."

Imam Khomeini, February 1st 1979, Beheshte Zahra (Tehran Cemetery)

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=113451525338301&ref=mf

There is more and more the question of a "referendum" from everywhere; ta nabashad chizaki, mardom nagouyand chiz ha :-)

Ma bishomarim

[perry1949]

Ange,
I'm afraid the only way the leader would allow a referendum would be with a gun at his back. He's doing everything he can now to hold on to his power. The only way he would step down would be to save his own skin.

Danial,
He's not doing the religion part of it very well either considering they had to bump him up a step or two just so they could say he was qualified for the job. :-) While things were running relatively smooth the other Ayats put up with him but now even they are starting to come around. (though that may be just to save their own skins too!)

[ange paris]

Danial
I agree with you for his charisma because he was the savor !! of the oppressed ! people but I agree especially with Arshama :" Khomeini altered the original republican Constitution to his and the clergy’s benefit by imposing the concept of “velayate faghih”. Moussavi, Karroubi, Khatami and even Rafsanjani know that and are for a referendum and they will reach it ; AN &co, SL are very weak and alone, they have not the support of people, they are like orphelins without roots and they sense this lack, hence the "face" of Jalili in China in the News in TV.

[danial]

@Arshama, post #6...

Thank you for sharing what you have seen and heard in Germany.

"Unfortunately some groups, and especially Iranian members of a certain German party are trying to hijack this spontaneous movement to their benefit, i.e. for expanding their good contacts with the reformists."

What kind of a party is this German party?