The Latest from Iran (1 April): Out Like a Lamb?

1905 GMT: Head of Judiciary Gets Told Off in Qom. Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, visited leading clerics in Qom today, including Ayatollahs Safi Golpaygani, Makarem Shirazi, and Shabiri Zanjani, and he had a bit of a tough time.

Safi Golpaygani declared that even one day's delay in releasing detainees is not acceptable in Islam. He then asserted:

If external forces interfere in the judiciary and influence the judges and they fail to follow the truth in their sentencing, the independence of the judiciary will be compromised....All sentencing and imprisonments should follow the basic laws of Islam

1805 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mehdi Karroubi has visited the family of detained film director Jafar Panahi.

1800 GMT: Putting the Supreme Leader to a Referendum? Payvand has an even stronger interpretation of Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi's statement (see 1520 GMT) that Islamic rule is subject to the will of the people:

If the Imam were alive today and some people were to tell him that due to post-Revolution generational developments in society, the majority are probably no longer in favour of "Velayat Faghih" and we want to gauge the support of people at this time, the Imam would have agreed with a referendum.

UPDATED Iran Politics and Music Video: “Karroubi” and the Arrest of Sasi Mankan
UPDATED Iran Appeal: Japan’s Deportation of Jamal Saberi
Iran: Preventing Tehran from “Going Nuclear” (Ramazani)
The Latest from Iran (31 March): Nuclear Chatter & Political Prisoners

1745 GMT: The Nuclear Line. Still no  significant word out of China over today's meetings with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, but Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has put out a holding statement. According to Press TV, Mottaki, speaking in Algeria, said Tehran is still ready to swap its low enriched uranium for higher enriched fuel under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).


However, Mottaki did not make clear --- at least in the Press TV report --- if "within the framework of its proposed initiatives" had to be a swap inside Iran or could be in an outside country.

1540 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA reports that Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, the son of Hossein Abdeh-Tabrizi, former secretary-general of Tehran Stock Exchange and director of the banned newspaper Sarmayeh, has been detained for the last three months with no news about his status or possible charges.

Ehsan Abdeh-Tabrizi, is a Ph.D. student in Political Science at Durham University in Britain, had returned to Iran to visit his family, but his passport was confiscated upon his arrival at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport and he was arrested a few days later.

1530 GMT: Nowruz Visits (cont.). Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard have visited the family of Shiva Nazar Ahari, the journalist and human rights activist detained since December.

1520 GMT: Clerical Interventions. Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi has declared that Islam should not be installed with force and dictatorship. Today (12 Farvardin) should be a day of all Iranians and all ethnic and religious minorities.

Hojatoleslam Rasul Montajabnia, the Vice President of the reformist Etemade Melli party, says that a leadership without a majority vote cannot survive. He added that the late Ayatollah Khomeini never promoted a rulership minus the people.

1245 GMT: Discussing Iran. Since yesterday afternoon, I have been in a conversation with the readers of the Race for Iran blog over political and legal issues, from the June election to protests to the place of "rights" in the crisis. After clearing away the white noise of those who post in denunciation rather than discussion, there are some interesting exchanges with those who take the position that the Ahmadinejad Government is legitimate and should be engaged by the Obama Administration.

1120 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reporters Without Borders has issued a statement:

The lives of many journalists are now in danger. Emadoldin Baghi, Badrolssadat Mofidi, Mehdi Mahmudian and Mohammad Sadegh Kabovand are seriously ill. We call for their unconditional and definitive release. We appeal to the Iranian authorities to act so that these lives are no longer at risk. We will hold them responsible for any misfortune.

1030 GMT: Sanctions 2+2=?. So, on the one hand, Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is in China for talks (see 0500 GMT) and, on the other, Reuters is spinning Beijing's acceptance of a path to tougher sanctions:

China has agreed to serious negotiations with Western powers about imposing new sanctions on Iran and President Hu Jintao will attend a multi-nation summit on nuclear security in Washington this month, officials said....The agreement to discuss sanctions marked a significant shift by China after months of fending off Western nations' demands for concerted pressure on Tehran.

Personally, I think it's too early to make a call on China's next steps. For the moment, it's all messages to all people, as in this from the Chinese Foreign Ministry's spokesman (paraded hopefully by Iran's state media): "On the Iranian nuclear issue, China will continue to endeavor toward a peaceful resolution."

0640 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Mohsen Hashemi, the son of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, has denied allegations that he has a villa in Switzerland.

0635 GMT: Nowruz Visits. Former Deputy Minister of Interior Mostafa Tajzadeh, still on his temporary release from Evin Prison, and his family paid a visit to former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was also a long-time post-election detainee, and his family.


0630 GMT: Rah-e-Sabz prints the collage of journalist Azar Mansouri, made with cardboard and toothpaste while she was detained in Evin Prison.

0615 GMT: And The Reformists Speak. The pro-Larijani Khabar Online also, for the second time in recent weeks, discussed politics with reformist Shahrbanou Amani. Amani assserted that "hardliners" should create favourable conditions for political competition, because free parties are necessary for a developed society. Amanid added that reformists should regrtoup and take advantage from the promises of the "hardliners", demanding that they be fulfilled.

0555 GMT: The Conservative Challenge. Speaking to Khabar Online, conservative activist Mojtaba Shakeri Mojtaba Shakeri has declared that "fundamentalists" have to prove they are capable of ruling Iran.

0545 GMT: The Nuclear Issue. While we await news from China, Rah-e-Sabz offers an overview of the current situation on Iran's nuclear progamme and international manoeuvres over uranium enrichment and sanctions.



0515 GMT: Media Nuclear Fever. Yet another example of a prominent newspaper losing perspective on the Iranian nuclear issue....

The Guardian of London, framing an interview with the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohammad El Baradei, headlines, "Cautious reports on Tehran nuclear programme 'were framed to avoid war'".

Dramatic stuff. Only problem? Nowhere in the article does an El Baradei quote indicate that he altered reports for political reasons. Here's what he actually says:

We are a technical organisation totally embedded in a political setting and we have to be aware of the background and political implications of our work....

"When I was working at the agency we would literally go through 30 drafts or so of each report before it was ready, because I knew every word could be used politically and in a very subjective way. Every word was weighed to make sure that it was immune from being abused, and I always wanted to make sure that we were not overstating or understating, but rather just stating the facts....

I think the tone was set by me, that's true. But all the facts were in every report, unvarnished.

0505 GMT: The Subsidy Fight. Member of Parliament Mohammad Kosari has repeated his compromise plan to resolve the dispute between the Majlis and the President over subsidy cuts and spending. Invoking the Supreme Leader's recent remarks "asking the government to adhere to law and the Majlis to help the administration", Kosari has suggested an extra $30 billion for Ahmadinejad, the halfway point between the $20 billion authorised by the Parliament and the $40 billion sought by the President.

0500 GMT: Completing the saying, the title today is a bookend to that of 1 March, "In Like a Lion?", but it seems appropriate as we come to the end of the Nowruz holiday. We'll be watching to see if the quiet phase in Iranian politics continues or if there is a resumption of manoeuvres, amongst the opposition, the Rafsanjani camp, and conservative challengers to the Government.

For the moment, however, the nuclear issue still holds the headlines. In what looks to be a significant (and quickly-planned) trip, Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, is in China today. Take your pick of speculations on the motive: the Iranians are approaching Beijing with a request to hold off on sanctions and/or to put forth a deal for uranium enrichment, the Chinese have summoned a representative from Tehran to put out a message. No hint in Iranian state media yet of developments.

Comments

[Megan]

Danial,

“Khomeini was one of the greatest charismatic leaders* in history. He knew how to blend faith and country together.”

Do you know today is April Fool’s day? Okay, in the spirit of April Fool’s day I take your above statement as a practical joke on us. But for the sake of history let it be known that Khomeini was a charlatan and a vengeful SOB (son of B...) that executed thousands of Iranians without due process. Because of his vegan with Saddam Hoeesin, he sent thousands of young Iranians to their grave and equal number disabled for life.

History will show that the damage Khomeini inflicted on Iran and Iranians was worse than Genghiz Khan. I look forward to the day we bulldoze his grave site and clean Iran from his terror.

[Aitch]

Great reporting thank you

[danial]

@Megan..

Did you not read the note at the bottom of my post, sigh!

read this to understand what I meant, you'll even find examples of people matching what you described...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charismatic_leader

by the way, Genghis Khan too was a charismatic leader.

[danial]

can someone tell me how to change my avatar

[danial]

@Scott Lucas...

from Tod Robertson of dallasnews.com
http://tinyurl.com/yak6m93

"Russia has similarly high stakes with ongoing, multibillion-dollar investments in Iran's civilian nuclear power program as well as oil and gas ventures, railroad construction, aviation, telecommunication and military sales. Russia and China also are vying for stakes in new Iranian steel construction, worth $14 billion."

he goes on:
"These ties don't dissolve easily, which makes it all the more impressive when the State Department's No. 2 official, Deputy Secretary James Steinberg, says that Russia and China finally are grasping why international economic sanctions are essential – and why both of them must get on board for sanctions to work... "

What kind of lucrative alternative has the US made with the Russian and Chinese that this man so confidently claims this:
"Expect big news in the coming weeks about a newer, tougher economic squeeze on Tehran, with China and Russia joining in."

I would really like to know what their bargaining with

[Arshama]

Ange,

Thank you for commenting and especially for your observation of Jalili in China.
Obviously I don't agree with your opinion on Khomeini, but acting as a dissident under these circumstance is certainly very difficult, and I also understand that Mousavi and all other dissidents have to refer to Khomeini to be on the safe side. However, as a secular Greenie I would not be ready to support a movement that tries to prolongate the life of this stillborn "republic". After 30 years it is time to recognize the fundamental contradictions of this system and change it. Like many others I would prefer a peaceful transition, based on the rule of the people, which is perhaps impossible, given the overall command of the IRGC on the security system and the economy. But as you said they are already frightened by Russia's and China's lack of support and the people's anger of course.
A friend, who attended the Qods Day protests in Tehran told me that the Bassiji realized their defeat on that day: ayandeye shoumeshan ra ba cheshmhaye khodeshan didand.

I borrowed the two different scenarios from Volker Perthes' useful article "Iran: What may await us" in ZEIT magazine: http://www.zeit.de/2010/12/Iran-Machtkampf-Atomstreit
Perhaps someone can find the English version, because it is marked as a translation at the end of the German text.

@ Danial, post # 25...

The German party I referred to are the Greens (ecological party), who started to court the IRI in Khatami's time. During the past months I attended several demonstrations and meetings, in which they promoted human rights in Iran along with defying genuine dissidents of this regime in Germany -- nasty politics.

As to the change of your avatar, I am no expert at all, but perhaps this site could be useful: http://avatarchange.com/

ma bishomarim

Arshama

[Scott Lucas]

Danial,

Still watching to see what the US thinks they have in real support for a move at the UN. My opinion at this point is that Washington's position is mainly public cover for a more significant, behind-the-scene efforts to get countries and companies to disinvest from Iran.

S.

[Rev. Magdalen]

In reference to the debate on the Leverett blog, I would just like to say that despite Professor Lucas's comments to the contrary, empirical evidence shows he is far more attractive than Flynt Leverett.

[ange paris]

Arshama
I have the same thoughts than you on Khomeyni and as you see in my comment above I have put an exclamation point after "savor" and "oppressed" because obviousely I prefer 1000 time the period of our poor shah; he was at least well educated , and "adam" , he didn't want to stick himself to power causing the death of thousands; I am against "velayté faghih" because I think that the intelligence of 70000000 citizens is more important that "one" person's what's more non -educated and I believe that iranian people are not mental disabled to need a legal guardian!

[danial]

@Scott Lucas...

Thank you for the response professor

And Arshama thank you very much for the link

[Megan]

Danial,

I did read that article, the charismatic authority. I am sorry but I do not agree that any of it applies to Khomeini.

Khomeini did not rise to power on his own sword. Khomeini rise to power was a combination of help by western powers that wanted to stop the Shah and his increasing influence in the Middle East (a place of strategic importance and rich in natural resource) and Shah’s fast-pace modernization plan in Iran that made many traditional, uneducated, and highly religious people feeling deprived and left many others struggling to catch up. Adding to this troubling mixture was a bunch of backward 14 century mullahs who felt they would lose their source of income if their uninformed followers became enlightened. These mullahs were making 10 cents by reciting stories of martyred Imams going from one mosque or cemetery to another. They lived on donations and hand-outs in mosques. Uninformed people were their bread and butter. Modernization, education, and women in the work force were death sentence for them so they became the agitators and added fuel to the fire.

Khomeini did not come to power because he had charisma under any definition in that article. He came to power because educated and progressive people of Iran were demanding political freedom. They believed the only way they could achieve their goal was to remove the Shah. They used Khomeini as a tool to topple the Shah. Why Khomeini? First, Khomeini was motivated. Khomeini had instigated uprising against the Shah. He had been tried in court for treason and convicted. He had been sentenced to death. The late Shah commuted his sentence to life in exile – the biggest mistake of the Shah in my opinion. Second, Khomeini had backing of both foreign powers and uneducated masses in Iran. Iranian political activists and intellectuals believed they would use Khomeini as a tool and once they accomplished their goal and topple the Shah they would push Khomeini back to a mosque in Qom. Iranian intellectuals/ political activists and foreign governments had underestimated the hunger of Khomeini for power, his appetite for vengeance, and his devious nature. It did not take too long for Khomeini to be intoxicated with power and screw his foreign backers and Iranian intellectuals. Khomeini was not a leader, charismatic or otherwise, irrespective of how much Mousavi or others romanticize. He was a tool, a weapon for achieving political freedom – a tool that malfunctioned and destroyed those who had made him.

There is hardly any family in Iran that has not had a taste of Khomeini venom and for these families charisma in any definition of the word does not apply to Khomeini. For these people Khomeini is a pathetic charlatan.

[gunni]

@Arshama

I am a bit confused now- (post #2 #6 #31) because not only that you raised my suspicions that we were present at the same events:)- I witnessed one’s a well known speaker at the end of one demonstration – it was Cem Özdemir, a chairman of the so called ecologist party and he delivered a good firing speech. The other example is Omid Nouripour, born in Tehran. He is a member of this party and now also a well known speaker for security police. And for sure-
there are others too – you could speak with them easily if you think there is a demand.
You are right - the article written by Perthes (Zeit) “isn’t to bad, but I critized him for one thing: He didn’t mentioned the “green movement” – in his article the efforts of the Iranian people vanished behind political forecast. And one of the good things after June is that there is a covering which shows the real “face” what’s going on in Iran. One of best are the last 3 stories of “Persian Umpire” – announced by Prof. Scott Lucas on this side - to me totally impressive truth telling and some times hart breaking stories.

@
Rev.Magdalen
Thank you very much for your explanations and for your hint – hard stuff – do you thing it`s necessary to read them all? :)

regards - gunni

[Aryajet]

@Megan
IMHO Not executing khomeini was not Shah's biggest mistake, he could easily do that through revealing his character by not banning his "Resaaleh" (book of religious dissertation).

Many people didn't know him and thought he is different than an ordinary akhoond, if they had access to his book they would know how wrong they are and would never idolize him by putting his face on the moon, would never think that khomeini was an intelligent revolutionary leader only presented in an akhoond' shell who will guide Iran toward democracy and just.

After revolution we used to sit at home and read it as serious joke book and at that time I told my self that if I was Shah or one his advisers I would suggest that book to be printed in millions and let Iranians have it for free instead of banning it.
Too late though.
Regards Artyajet

[Catherine]

RE Rev. Magdalen says (nr. 33):
"In reference to the debate on the Leverett blog, I would just like to say that despite Professor Lucas’s comments to the contrary, empirical evidence shows he is far more attractive than Flynt Leverett."

Rev Magdalen, I think Professor Lucas was referring to Madame Leverett when he used the term "cutie" ;-), although it's easy to get confused as they are rather carbon copies of each other. In fact, I'm surprised PBS had both of them on, as that brings no added value to the show. I guess sometimes TV programmers like to double down. Aljazeera English, for example, sometimes invites one Leverett and one Marandi, who also end up lovingly finishing each others' sentences. :-)

[Arshama]

Megan,

Re #36
Dametoon garm! I love your straightforward language, always refreshing ;-)

Gunni,

Re #37
Perhaps we have been at the same events. In any case I should also refer to that incredible Iran Conference in Berlin from 2000, organised by the Heinrich Boell Stiftung (foundation of the Green party), after which Akbar Ganji and other participants were imprisoned for speaking out. Apart from proving this party's incompetence to hold a conference on such a hot issue, what left unnoticed is the fact, that simultaneously a "private" conference on economic issues and trade relations took place in the basement of the HKW (House of World Cultures). I label it as "private", because I witnessed an experienced Iranian journalist from Paris was denied access to this parallel conference.

As to Perthes (Zeit), now head of the Berlin-based SWP (Stiftung fuer Wissenschaft und Politik), a think tank for the government, I read his political forecast somewhat differently. Even though he does not mention the Green movement explicitly, it is apparent from every line. He prefers to speak of the "opposition", obviously a broader term, which may encomprise feasible new leaders -- who knows?
I loved much his third scenario (military rule), where he stages a protest meeting of clerics in Qom, attacked by the Bassiji, after which some of the former end up in hospital. Pure sarcasm of a serious political expert ;-)

Regards
Arshama

[gunni]

@ Arshama

Thanks’ for your answer. You are right – the outcome of the Berlin conference 2000 about Iran was terrible. http://www.liga-iran.de/report.htm A bit naive - but some years after the horrible “Mykonos event” I thought too: With Khatami the political developments in Iran are going to get better - lately after the conference I knew that this was a serious deception. Please no misunderstandings – I am not a member of the so called ecologist party – but trying to brighten the background it’s possible to underline two of maybe different reasons: the lack of better information. I mentioned this too because knowing of your affords.
One other reason should be underlined, too: Living in a country with a deep black history we have unlearned how to deal with such a cruel military dictatorship. Advices from Iranians who knows are essential for outsiders.
You are right too that the “Zeit” is one of the better weekly reviews we have.
When Perthes points out his variables in his introduction – Regime power
= legitimacy + cohesion within the members of the regime + material resources
he had forgotten the "interior power of oppression". And why he didn’t he wrote
a sentence about legitimacy of the regime in the beginning of 2010?
Questions like always – but looking into the grey town – after the snow has melted - the colour “green” is deeply needed here. The atmosphere should be “refreshed” with - for instance – cultural and political events. Because the citizens will easily understand that nukes and guns and leaders and presidents are just only tools to blanket peoples demands.

Regards gunni