Afghanistan: Karzai's Middle-Finger Reply to the US

UPDATED 1600 GMT: Some political fun this afternoon over the Karzai statement. Abdullah Abdullah, who lost to Karzai in last year's Presidential election, told reporters, "As a former colleague and doctor, I think this is beyond a normal attitude." White House spokesman Robert Gibbs settled for "genuinely troubling" to describe Karzai's remarks.

The Majlis has a far more pragmatic assessment of why Karzai made his statement.

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Let's check in with Hamid Karzai, five days after Barack Obama made a 26-hour round trip to give him a 30-minute telling-off about corruption, drugs, and mismanagement. I bet he's behaving himself now!

Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president, delivered extraordinarily harsh criticism on Thursday of the Western governments fighting in his country, the United Nations, and the British and American news media, accusing them of perpetrating the fraud that denied him an outright victory in last summer’s presidential elections.

Afghanistan: US Night Raids v. “Hearts and Minds”? (Porter)

What? Are you sure about that?


I mean, after all, the US and NATO followed up their Presidential stick with the carrot of allowing Karzai's brother, a focal point for criticism about financial irregularities, to maintain his authority in Kandahar?

“There is no doubt that the fraud [in last August's Presidential election] was very widespread, but this fraud was not committed by Afghans, it was committed by foreigners,” Mr. Karzai said. “This fraud was committed by Galbraith [Peter Galbraith, the deputy United Nations special representative], this fraud was committed by Morillon [Philippe Morillon, the chief election observer for the European Union], and this fraud was committed by embassies.”

April Fools' Day, right? Any moment now, Karzai was going to turn around, give a smile, and say, "Just funning you, Barack --- thanks to you and America for all your help."

“In this situation there is a thin curtain between invasion and cooperation-assistance,” said Mr. Karzai, adding that if the perception spread that Western forces were invaders and the Afghan government their mercenaries, the insurgency “could become a national resistance.”

Hmm, guess not.

One possible explanation for the speech is that Karzai was trying to give himself public cover as a dedicated nationalist, standing up to Washington, even as he gave way to Obama. That's certainly what The New York Times was hoping: "One motive for the angry speech might be an attempt to protect himself politically, since it is probable that he will have to accede to Western demands that he remove the officials on the election commission who were seen as most complicit in the fraud."

Another explanation, however, is that Karzai has just made it clear that he will not be implementing the US agenda in full. Instead, look for more rounds of political manoeuvre as the Afghan President positions himself amidst not only Washington but also his own supporters, the Afghan insurgency, and other interested outside powers.

A story, in other words, that will run and run. President Obama, you might want to have Air Force One warmed up for another long-distance flight.

Iraq: The Latest Political Moves

The Majlis political blog offers a round-up of the latest manoeuvres for power after Iraq's inconclusive election:

The horse-trading continues in Iraq: Prime minister Nouri al-Maliki is trying to cement a possible merger with the Iraqi National Alliance [predominantly "religious" Shi'a), but the Sadrist movement seems reluctant; and [former Prime Minister] Iyad Allawi is trying to attract Kurdish support, but the Kurds seem reluctant.

Iraq Video: Scott Lucas on Al Jazeera’s “Inside Story”

There's a lot to keep track of, so we've rounded up a bullet-point list of the latest political maneuverings. We'll do similar lists in the coming days as they're needed.



*Allawi met with Iraqi president Jalal Talabani. Allawi is trying to drum up Kurdish support -- Talabani is a Kurd -- but that will be a difficult slog: Many Kurds distrust Allawi's Iraqiyya coalition, not because of Allawi himself, but because of the staunch Arab nationalism of some coalition partners (particularly the al-Hadba party).

Kurds worry that they will undermine their own interests by joining Iraqiyya: "For us, dealing with al-Iraqiya List is impossible," Feryad Rawanduzi, a senior Kurdish official from President Talabani's party, told the Kurdish Peyamner news agency. "There are some groups within al-Iraqiya List whose agenda and way of thinking is different from us."

*Maliki met with [former Prime Minister] Ibrahim Jaafari, the head of the National Reform Trend, a member of the Iraqi National Alliance.

There's a lot of bad blood between the two men: Maliki succeeded Jaafari as the head of the Dawa party, and Jaafari didn't leave voluntarily. But they seem to be burying the hatchet (Maliki is trying to craft a merger with the INA, remember), which has the Sunni Arab world once again fretting about Iran's influence.

*Moqtada al-Sadr asked his supporters to vote on whether the Sadrist movement should back Allawi or Maliki (or a third party). Sources close to Sadr say he wants Allawi to play an important role(عربي) in the next government; a referendum could give Sadr some political cover to split from his colleagues in the INA and back Allawi.

*Allawi's aides met with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's most influential Shi'ite cleric, and asked him to issue an interpretation of article 76 of the Iraqi constitution, which deals with the formation of a new government. Iraq's Federal Supreme Court (which may not even have jurisdiction over the issue) ruled last week that article 76 allows either Maliki or Allawi to form the next government.