Sunday
Aug022009
Iran Special Analysis: The Politics of the Tehran Trial
Sunday, August 2, 2009 at 15:23
The Latest from Iran (2 August): Assessing the Trial
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Saturday, for the first day in recent weeks, it was the regime on the offensive. Ayatollah Jannati's tough address at Friday prayers in Tehran was followed by the showpiece of the trial of almost 100 defendants, including a former Vice President and Deputy Ministers, key members of reformist political parties, and journalists.
As legal process, the courtroom scene was, to be frank, ludicrous. There were no defense lawyers, and the only official press in the courtroom were those from media favourable to the State.
The indictment and presentation of charges offered no evidence of substantive criminal acts apart from the relatively minor acts of throwing stones at security forces. More sinister allegations of bombing relied upon the past, rather the current, records of defendants (and did not include any of the most prominent detainees). And the "foreign plot" scenario was almost laughable. It turned US-based academics into directors of an Iranian insurgency. (Abbas Milani has no love for the regime, but he is a solid historian and political analyst, and Gene Sharp works with theory, rather than application, of non-violent regime change. Mark Palmer may be an irritating polemicist, but he is not a CIA mastermind.)
The central act of the prosecution's play was the testimony of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi. While dramatic in its content, it offered no detail of a treasonous plot. Instead, this was blatant political manoeuvre, designed to stigmatise Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavai (although he was portrayed as naïve campaigner rather than malevolent schemer), and, above all, Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Only Abtahi knows whether his testimony was genuine or coerced. His family and attorney declared that he had been tortured and drugged. Pictures from the courtroom showed a man who looked haggard and unhealthy, losing a lot of weight in his detention. His "confession" had apparently been circulated in advance to news services that would give it the correct interpretation.
Opposition politicians denounced both the trial and Abtahi's suspect testimony. Mousavi's camp declared, via Ghalam News, "The people's movement is peaceful in nature and relies on the demand of the public to achieve their rights which have been trampled upon during the last elections." They specifically ruled out the allegation of conspiracy with foreign agents, responding not only to the trial but some unhelpful calls from outside Iran for regime change: "Despite claims of the dissidents, this just and spiritual movement has no connections with the foreigners and is completely domestic, and our nation is mindful of staying away from foreigners."
Rafsanjani was briefer in his response, calling the testimony "an obvious lie". Significantly, however, his advisors issued the statement through the offices of the Expediency Council, which Rafsanjani heads. The message to the regime? If you want a fight, we have our own bases of support within the system.
What matters in the short-term is not the cold dissection of yesterday's events but the emotive reaction. Will the regime succeed, days before the anointing of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President, in mobilising public opinion against the opposition or at least ensuring acceptance of its authority? Or is this another instance of going too far in trying to crush protest as illegitimate?
The challenge for the regime is that it cannot sustain the high-profile denunciation on a daily basis. It has played its strongest card with Abtahi. Meanwhile, the opposition is countering. A show of dissent was scheduled for this morning outside the offices of the head of Iran's judiciary, and there is talk of protests not only for Wednesday, when Ahmadinejad is inaugurated, but also Monday, when he is approved by the Supreme Leader, and Friday, a day of celebration for Imam Mahdi's birthday.
It is one thing to crush a reformist faction like the Islamic Iran Participation Front, whose leading members are on trial. It is another to take on both the Green movement and Rafsanjani by linking them so blatantly (and, I think, crudely).
The regime may "win" but, to do so, it is gambling. And far from cleaning up the resistance with an easy bet, it is having to raise the stakes.
1440 GMT: Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, President Ahmadinejad's press secretary, has resigned from his post. Javanfekr stated that " there is a need for fresh blood to take over the responsibility, and one must make way for these individuals".
http://parlemannews.com/?n=2376
The Islamic Participation Front, one of the reformist parties has responded to the trials via its news site Norouz:
"The show goes on: Wholesale killings and suppressions, wholesale arrests and wholesale trial and sentencing. The trial of the political activists arrested after the presidential elestions has started. As it could have been expected and just as political activists and parties had warned the trial was held eschewing all legal presuppositions favoring the defendants. The Islamic Participation Front states that the sole reporting news agency in the court was the pro-government and mendacious Fars news agency. Considering the track record of this agency in propagating falsehoods, it is obvious that none of the statements of this agency possess any credibility.
Nourouz states that a credible source located in the court has stated that none of the statements of Fars are true and the court is effectively a kangaroo court.
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Saturday, for the first day in recent weeks, it was the regime on the offensive. Ayatollah Jannati's tough address at Friday prayers in Tehran was followed by the showpiece of the trial of almost 100 defendants, including a former Vice President and Deputy Ministers, key members of reformist political parties, and journalists.As legal process, the courtroom scene was, to be frank, ludicrous. There were no defense lawyers, and the only official press in the courtroom were those from media favourable to the State.
The indictment and presentation of charges offered no evidence of substantive criminal acts apart from the relatively minor acts of throwing stones at security forces. More sinister allegations of bombing relied upon the past, rather the current, records of defendants (and did not include any of the most prominent detainees). And the "foreign plot" scenario was almost laughable. It turned US-based academics into directors of an Iranian insurgency. (Abbas Milani has no love for the regime, but he is a solid historian and political analyst, and Gene Sharp works with theory, rather than application, of non-violent regime change. Mark Palmer may be an irritating polemicist, but he is not a CIA mastermind.)
The central act of the prosecution's play was the testimony of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi. While dramatic in its content, it offered no detail of a treasonous plot. Instead, this was blatant political manoeuvre, designed to stigmatise Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavai (although he was portrayed as naïve campaigner rather than malevolent schemer), and, above all, Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Only Abtahi knows whether his testimony was genuine or coerced. His family and attorney declared that he had been tortured and drugged. Pictures from the courtroom showed a man who looked haggard and unhealthy, losing a lot of weight in his detention. His "confession" had apparently been circulated in advance to news services that would give it the correct interpretation.
Opposition politicians denounced both the trial and Abtahi's suspect testimony. Mousavi's camp declared, via Ghalam News, "The people's movement is peaceful in nature and relies on the demand of the public to achieve their rights which have been trampled upon during the last elections." They specifically ruled out the allegation of conspiracy with foreign agents, responding not only to the trial but some unhelpful calls from outside Iran for regime change: "Despite claims of the dissidents, this just and spiritual movement has no connections with the foreigners and is completely domestic, and our nation is mindful of staying away from foreigners."
Rafsanjani was briefer in his response, calling the testimony "an obvious lie". Significantly, however, his advisors issued the statement through the offices of the Expediency Council, which Rafsanjani heads. The message to the regime? If you want a fight, we have our own bases of support within the system.
What matters in the short-term is not the cold dissection of yesterday's events but the emotive reaction. Will the regime succeed, days before the anointing of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President, in mobilising public opinion against the opposition or at least ensuring acceptance of its authority? Or is this another instance of going too far in trying to crush protest as illegitimate?
The challenge for the regime is that it cannot sustain the high-profile denunciation on a daily basis. It has played its strongest card with Abtahi. Meanwhile, the opposition is countering. A show of dissent was scheduled for this morning outside the offices of the head of Iran's judiciary, and there is talk of protests not only for Wednesday, when Ahmadinejad is inaugurated, but also Monday, when he is approved by the Supreme Leader, and Friday, a day of celebration for Imam Mahdi's birthday.
It is one thing to crush a reformist faction like the Islamic Iran Participation Front, whose leading members are on trial. It is another to take on both the Green movement and Rafsanjani by linking them so blatantly (and, I think, crudely).
The regime may "win" but, to do so, it is gambling. And far from cleaning up the resistance with an easy bet, it is having to raise the stakes.
1440 GMT: Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, President Ahmadinejad's press secretary, has resigned from his post. Javanfekr stated that " there is a need for fresh blood to take over the responsibility, and one must make way for these individuals".
http://parlemannews.com/?n=2376
The Islamic Participation Front, one of the reformist parties has responded to the trials via its news site Norouz:
"The show goes on: Wholesale killings and suppressions, wholesale arrests and wholesale trial and sentencing. The trial of the political activists arrested after the presidential elestions has started. As it could have been expected and just as political activists and parties had warned the trial was held eschewing all legal presuppositions favoring the defendants. The Islamic Participation Front states that the sole reporting news agency in the court was the pro-government and mendacious Fars news agency. Considering the track record of this agency in propagating falsehoods, it is obvious that none of the statements of this agency possess any credibility.
Nourouz states that a credible source located in the court has stated that none of the statements of Fars are true and the court is effectively a kangaroo court.
Reader Comments (7)
Al Jazeera posted an in-depth analysis of the recent events in Iran
http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/08/20098171953790365.html" rel="nofollow">by Bernd Kaussler. I’m not well-versed enough to evaluate his remarks, but to me he seems very insightful. Comments, anyone?
Here’s an excerpt:
The analysis is right on target. Let the past be a lesson. If the green movement makes the same mistake once it comes to power, and plays by the same IRI rules, we'll be back where we were.
Thanks for your full coverage of Iranian opposition's views. But assessing Abtahi as the regime's strongest card might prove wrong in the long term. Ataollah Mohajerani, Khatami's former minister of education, judges yesterday's show trial as a prelude to the fourth phase of a well-planned scenario to get rid of Rafsanjani, Moussavi und Khatami: http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-13818.aspx
I fully agree with him, especially with regard to the growing influence of the IGRC. Other Iranian commentators have uttered comparable warnings:
http://tehranbureau.com/the-leaders-of-iran%E2%80%99s-election-coup/
@ Amy: During the last 30 years the Islamic Republic has been in a state of constant "selection" of oppositionals. After the annihilation of leftist forces in the 80's, moderate parties, like the National Front, were put aside or got killed in the 90's (Forouhar, leader Nation of Iran party). Khatami's reformist camp has certainly failed to enforce the concept of legality, due to the reasons mentioned by Kaussler and largely hampered by the radicals and Khamenei, who vetoed all important legal reforms, e.g. a new press law.
In order to create a monolithic Islamic state it is now the turn of all remaining "oppositional" forces. I doubt, however, that the putschists will be successful. Too many other forces like the clergy or regular army are left over, which certainly would not accept this paramilitary dictatorship in a Shiite guise.
Arshama,
Thanks for your comments & the Tehran Bureau link. I appreciate articles that present the historic context & this one pulls together the political, military & religious strands, which helps a great deal.
On coup theories, I have seen alternate coup scenarios, which lead either to
1) A military government with Ahmadinejad as front man, based on his military connections and appointments.
~or~
2) A status quo result in which Ahmadinejad & Khamenei use Ahmadinejad's militarization of the government to ensure that Khamenei's son succeeds him as Supreme Leader.
Either way, Ahmadinejad would be amply rewarded.
Without the article, I wouldn't have understood the significance of an outcome that involves Mesbah Yazdi but it sounds absolutely chilling. For the sake of Iran I hope that it doesn't go in that direction.
The people of Iran are well-educated, sophisticated and tech-savvy. The tools of oppression don't work in this kind of environment. In the long run, I just don't see how the hardliners can pull off any of these scenarios.
Arshama,
About IGRC or other plans to dispense with Rafsanjani, Moussavi and Khatami...
I can't read the article you linked, but was wondering if you think the people would stand for it? None of the 3 seems to be leading the movement, but they are important symbolically. On the govt side, the current situation provides a convenient excuse to go after the 3, but is not the real motive. It seems like nothing is as it seems... The 3 aren't who they appear to be to the Iranian people, who, in reality, are leading themselves. The government has ulterior motives to get rid of them and who knows the personal agenda of any of the 3.
Yet what happens to the 3 is of critical importance, maybe because of their political & clerical connections. Maybe I'm totally off base
Anyway, do you think the regime can do what they intend to do, or can public outrage prevent the govt from following through?
Iran Top Reformists To Be Put On Trial As Ahmadinejad Prepares Inauguration...
Get ready for Iran to be in pitchforked into the headlines this week as the regime there prepares to get — and to receive — a double whammy. And there could be a triple whammy, too.
First whammy: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be inaugurated as P...
Never mind those questions...
More reading is making it ever more clear that the only hope is for the people to stand together. May God grant them courage