Iran: The Battle for the Ministry of Intelligence Continues

The Latest from Iran (7 August): The Opposition Bounces Back

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Last week we posted an exclusive analysis on the battle to control the Ministry of Intelligence and its wider political significance: "The irony is that any notion of an outside 'velvet revolution” has been overtaken by an inside bureaucratic war. How far this war spreads could define the next phase of the post-election challenge to the Iranian system.

 Iason Athanasiadis has an intriguing follow-up in Thursday's Washington Times, "Power struggle hits Iran intelligence agency". Inevitably, a lot of the piece is rumour and speculation but the hard facts are worthy of consideration.

The theories behind President Ahamdinejad's sacking of the Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, such as "failure to press for convictions on espionage charges of former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian and two Iranian-Americans, scholar Haleh Esfandiari and journalist Roxana Saberi" are peripheral (the immediate reason for Ejeie's firing could just as easily have been thew Cabinet bust-up over the appointment of the First Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai). Instead, the significant signal of the power struggle is here:
[blockquote]
Mr. Ejei was present on Monday when Ayatollah Khamenei presided at a ceremony confirming Mr. Ahmadinejad's second term: "Ejei came for the supreme leader, not for Ahmadinejad, because he derives his credibility from [the leader]."
[/blockquote]Just as important are the sources of the rumours for Ejeie's dismissal, as well as the firing of two Vice Ministers and more than 20 other officials: pro-Ahmadinejad activists quoted in the "conservative" Baztab and the "reformist" Mizan News. And there is the President's own reference to the "failings" justifying his changes at the Ministry:

Two weeks before the riots started, the Foreign Ministry reported that it was very suspicious that a significant number of people were traveling to Iran from Britain. But the intelligence ministry did not pursue this matter. The ministry also did not act as it was expected in the recent unrests, and there were blatant cases of negligence. 

Is the President now running the Ministry via its interim head, Majid Alavi, taking supervision away from the Supreme Leader?  Is he, as the 20+ dismissed officials have warned in a letter to the Ministry, erasing security files relating to his allies, including the former
First Vice President Rahim-Mashai? And are there manoeuvres behind these manoeuvres in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps is ensuring that it is the power behind this regime?

None of this is any clearer now than when the crisis broke more than two weeks ago. What has been established is that this is a system which is battling forces within as much as it is the opposition outside.

Iran Analysis: Naming a President

The Latest from Iran (3 August): Trials and Inaugurations

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Morning Update (0630 GMT): The official event today will be the Supreme Leader's endorsement of President Ahmadinejad, who will be inaugurated on Wednesday, but this has already been eclipsed by other events. With Ahmadinejad a lame duck even before his second term starts, with the battle now between the regime and Hashemi Rafsanjani as well as the regime and the Green opposition, and with the headline issue of detentions reinforced by the images of Saturday's trial, the focus will not be on Ayatollah Khameini's formal declaration but what he says in addition to it.

This will be the Supreme Leader's first significant public statement since his dispute with Ahmadinejad over the selection of the First Vice President, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. Since then, the President has made an ambiguous statement about his position, both in general and specifically in relation to Khamenei. It is far from clear, however, that "conservative" and "principlist" blocs inside and outside Parliament --- also angered by the firing of the Ministry of Intelligence and the attempted dismissal of three others --- have reconciled with Ahmadinejad against the supposed threat of an opposition working with foreign elements and the real challenge of clerical and political criticism of the Government's abuses of the legal system.

So does Khamenei make any reference to either a new, resurgent beginning with the President or a lingering criticism of him? Or does he just let Ahmadinejad dangle by saying nothing of direct or implied substance?

Meanwhile, the opposition appears to be building to its own reaction on Wednesday, during Ahmadinejad's inauguration, rather than today. The talk now is of symbolic steps such as disruption of traffic, "flash" demonstrations, and power overloads rather than any mass action. Indeed, it appears that the new impetus for the movement, again including Rafsanjani as well as other leaders and protestors, is the response to Saturday's trials. There is a very real and significant whether they can turn initial defense (we are not guilty of a "plot") into a damaging assault on the Government's credibility (they are guilty of degrading and abusing not only the detainees, but the Revolution and Islam).

In that context, there are some very interesting signals from Press TV. While other state outlets such as Fars News were allowed to give full coverage from inside the courtroom, Press TV was shut out (probably because of confusion, rather than a deliberate step) along with opposition and foreign media. Pushed to the side on the direct reporting of the proceedings against the "enemy", Press TV has been giving airtime to blunt criticism of the regime, such as the challenge to the trial from reformist member of Parliaments and the reflections on prominent scientist/politician Abdolhossein Roohul Amini on his son Mohsen, who died in detention in Evin Prison (see the videos in our separate entry).