Israel and Palestine: The Latest Manoeuvres of Hamas and Fatah

After Saudi Arabia rejected the US plan for Arab gestures towards Israel to establish diplomatic ties, Saudi King Abdullah warned that the rift among Palestinians was more damaging to their cause of an independent state than the Israeli "enemy".

In a letter to Palestinians gathering at Fatah’s sixth General Assembly, the King said:

"The arrogant and criminal enemy was not able, during years of continued aggression, to hurt the Palestinian cause as much as the Palestinians hurt their cause themselves in the past few months... I can honestly tell you, brothers, that even if the whole world joins to found a Palestinian independent state, and if we have full support for that, this state would not be established as long as the Palestinians are divided."

Abdullah's message comes as Hamas sends stronger signals that it wishes to sign an agreement with Fatah on August 24 in Cairo. On Wednesday, Hamas’s leader in Lebanon, Osama Hamdan, stated that Hamas had informed the Egyptian leadership that it wants a unity deal by the 25th.

It is too simple, however, to see this as a one-way Hamas drive for unity. Instead, it appears that the organisation is also looking to pin any blame for failure on Fatah.

Hamas is still guarding against any appearance of weakness and of a Fatah freed to strike a unilateral deal with Israel. So it did not let Fatah delegates leave the Gaza Strip for the West Bank.

Yet Hamas' fears of Fatah "giving in" to Tel Aviv may be overstated. Although some observers expected a significant shift in strategy, the Fatah leadership is not ruling out the option of struggle through arms, although delegates may agree on replacing a statement of 'armed struggle' to 'resistance'. Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas said, "While we stress that we have endorsed the path of peace and negotiations on the basis of international legitimacy, we also reserve our authentic right to legitimate resistance as guaranteed by international law."

So Fatah is aiming at distancing itself further from a “terrorist” Hamas but, at the same time, it is not permitting any political vacuum that Hamas to fill. And that in turn means that Abbas will reiterate Fatah's positions on the right of Palestinian return and the rejection of Jewish settlement construction both in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem.

If Fatah and the Palestinian Authority, which it leads, can get tangible concessions from Israel and if the Obama Administration can get close to a settlement, then Hamas will be stuck inside the Gaza Strip. However, if the process is drawn out, then Fatah will suffer and, conversely, Hamas will strengthen.