The Middle East/Iran Inside Line: Hezbollah In, Lieberman Out, France-Germany Making a Difference?

Iran’s Nuclear Programme: Talks, Threats, and Propaganda
Israel-Palestine: After Mitchell Meeting, Netanyahu Presses His Advantage

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Lebanon: Hezbollah in Government: Prime Minister-designate Sa'ad Hariri declared on Wednesday: "The national unity government will include the [ruling] March 14 alliance, and I also want to assure the Israeli enemy that Hezbollah will be in this government whether it likes it or not because Lebanon's interests require all parties be involved in this cabinet."

France and Germany Speak Out on Middle East, Iran: On Wednesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then reiterated Germany’s call for two-state solution: "We shouldn't let the window of opportunity pass… The time is absolutely right. Let us do everything to use it."

Meanwhile, spokesmen for the Germany Government emphasised, "The German government advocates that no further settlements in the occupied territories be built. The federal government has emphasized repeatedly this position, and it has not changed." The spokesmem refused to give details on discussions over Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier held in Gaza, "strongly appealed to his kidnappers to release him as fast as possible [as] his martyrdom has already lasted too long".

French President Nicholas Sarkozy, also on the scene, endorsed the German call for a halt to Israeli settlement expansion. He then switched to Iran, publicly warned that France would support further sanctions on Tehran if it did not stop uranium enrichment: "These are the same leaders, in Iran, who tell us that the nuclear program is peaceful and that the elections were honest. Frankly, who believes them?"

Sarkozy is due to meet with the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, in Paris next week.

Israel: Foreign Minister in Trouble?: Haaretz’s Aluf Benn has pointed out the “damage” Foreign Ministry Avigdor Lieberman is causing to Israel's reputation and called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to replace him with a “real statesman”.

Benn argues that Lieberman’s has not furthered his country’s national interests in diplomatic exchanges with other countries and has, indeed, alienated them thanks to his “aggressive” statements. Lieberman has put his Prime Minister in a “foolish” position and endangering the peace process by calling it a “dangerous folly”.

Israel-Palestine: After Mitchell Meeting, Netanyahu Presses His Advantage

The Middle East/Iran Inside Line: Hezbollah In, Lieberman Out, France-Germany Making a Difference?
Israel and Mitchell-Netanyahu: No Agreement Yet “Good”
Israel-Palestine: Fayyad Puts Invitation to Israel within a “Palestinian State”

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An Israeli government source says that, in his meeting with President Obama's envoy George Mitchell on Tuesday, Netanyahu proposed a nine-month freeze on settlements in the West Bank. However, he set clear conditions: this would not be an obstacle for the “continuation of normal life" and would not include 2,500 housing units on which construction has already started. It was also dependent on reciprocal steps from the Palestinian Authority and Arab states. In the event that Arabs did not meet expectations, Netanyahu asked for an American guarantee not to oppose renewed building.

The American response to Netanyahu’s proposal will be given in Washington next week when Mitchell meets with Netanyahu's envoy, attorney Yitzhak Molcho, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak's chief of staff, Brigadier General Mike Herzog. In the second week of September, Mitchell is expected to visit Israel in order to finalize the agreement.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu commented on Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas's reported willingness to meet him at next month's UN General Assembly session in New York: "If Abbas is behind this declaration, that would be progress. This is a positive thing, a positive first step." Since Abbas had refused to meet Netanyahu if Israel does not impose a full halt on its settlements in the West Bank, this could be construed as a Palestinian concession. Indeed, Netanyahu seized the opportunity to press another condition, the Palestinian leadership's recognition of a Jewish state: "We also have core issues, and the issue of recognition is core, in my view. If we insist on the recognition, there will be a peace agreement."

Israel and Palestine: The Latest Manoeuvres of Hamas and Fatah

After Saudi Arabia rejected the US plan for Arab gestures towards Israel to establish diplomatic ties, Saudi King Abdullah warned that the rift among Palestinians was more damaging to their cause of an independent state than the Israeli "enemy".

In a letter to Palestinians gathering at Fatah’s sixth General Assembly, the King said:

"The arrogant and criminal enemy was not able, during years of continued aggression, to hurt the Palestinian cause as much as the Palestinians hurt their cause themselves in the past few months... I can honestly tell you, brothers, that even if the whole world joins to found a Palestinian independent state, and if we have full support for that, this state would not be established as long as the Palestinians are divided."

Abdullah's message comes as Hamas sends stronger signals that it wishes to sign an agreement with Fatah on August 24 in Cairo. On Wednesday, Hamas’s leader in Lebanon, Osama Hamdan, stated that Hamas had informed the Egyptian leadership that it wants a unity deal by the 25th.

It is too simple, however, to see this as a one-way Hamas drive for unity. Instead, it appears that the organisation is also looking to pin any blame for failure on Fatah.

Hamas is still guarding against any appearance of weakness and of a Fatah freed to strike a unilateral deal with Israel. So it did not let Fatah delegates leave the Gaza Strip for the West Bank.

Yet Hamas' fears of Fatah "giving in" to Tel Aviv may be overstated. Although some observers expected a significant shift in strategy, the Fatah leadership is not ruling out the option of struggle through arms, although delegates may agree on replacing a statement of 'armed struggle' to 'resistance'. Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas said, "While we stress that we have endorsed the path of peace and negotiations on the basis of international legitimacy, we also reserve our authentic right to legitimate resistance as guaranteed by international law."

So Fatah is aiming at distancing itself further from a “terrorist” Hamas but, at the same time, it is not permitting any political vacuum that Hamas to fill. And that in turn means that Abbas will reiterate Fatah's positions on the right of Palestinian return and the rejection of Jewish settlement construction both in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem.

If Fatah and the Palestinian Authority, which it leads, can get tangible concessions from Israel and if the Obama Administration can get close to a settlement, then Hamas will be stuck inside the Gaza Strip. However, if the process is drawn out, then Fatah will suffer and, conversely, Hamas will strengthen.

Israel-Palestine: Hamas Says (Again) Ready to Negotiate

This analysis is based on a piece by Amjad Atallah in The Washington Note (http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/)

The Wall Street Journal, which is no friend of the cause of Hamas, carried an interview last Friday in which the organisation's political director, Khaled Meshaal, said, "We along with other Palestinian factions in consensus agreed upon accepting a Palestinian state on the 1967 lines. This is the national program. This is our program. This is a position we stand by and respect." Meshaal added that Hamas would commit to an immediate reciprocal cease-fire with Israel and a prisoner exchange.

Meshaal put acceptance of a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders within "a broader peace agreement with Israel", including the right of return for millions of Palestinian refugees and a capital for the Palestinian state in East Jerusalem.

This, however, is also the official position of Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority,
although Palestinian leaders have privately admitted to Israelis that they might give up the right of return in exchange for the 1967 borders.

And Meshaal's interview, which restates the position he set out to The New York Times earlier this summer, is another indication that Hamas supports President Obama's efforts to broker a settlement: "Hamas and other Palestinian groups are ready to cooperate with any American, international or regional effort to find a just solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict, to end the Israeli occupation and to grant the Palestinian people their right of self-determination."