Saturday
Aug012009
Iran: Ayatollah Jannati's Challenge at Friday Prayers (Rafsanjani, We're Watching You)
Saturday, August 1, 2009 at 8:10
The Latest from Iran (1 August): The Regime Gets Tough
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Less than 24 hours after the "40th Day" memorial demonstrations, the regime offered its response through Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati's address at Friday prayers in Tehran. The message was far from subtle, but for some it may be surprising.
Right now, those supporting the Government do not see the protestors as the main threat. The challenge does not come from the leaders of that movement, such as Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karoubi, or Mohammad Khatami. It is not even in the statements of senior clerics from Qom.
The man they fear is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.
On reflection, this may always have been the case. A week after the election, in his address at Friday prayers, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gave nothing to the Green opposition. However, he devoted much attention to Rafsanjani, offering conciliatory words over the verbal fighting before the election (especially over "corruption") but concluding that he preferred the political views of President Ahmadinejad.
The difference yesterday was that Jannati did not extend any hand of compromise to Rafsanjani. Instead, he cast him as the shadow behind the post-election conflict, "an unrest four years in the making". That reference to the 2005 election, in which Ahmadinejad defeated Rafsanjani in the second round, could not have been clearer. (Even Press TV English is openly framing this as a showdown allegation against the former President.) Jannati charged, "After defeat was inflicted on a certain figure four years ago, those who could not stand a young man in power colluded against him. Since then, they have planned to avenge (their loss)."
The "young man" reference deserves special attention. As sharper analysts of Iran have noted, there is a wider battle here between politicians and clerics who emerged in the early years of the Revolution, including Rafsanjani and Mousavi, and a "new guard" including Ahmadinejad. In 2005 the Supreme Leader, despite having gained his position in 1989 in large part because of Rafsanjani's manoeuvring, backed the "young man" in what was widely seen as a political upset.
The shifting alliances --- Rafsanjani now finds himself on the same side as Ayatollah Montazeri, the clerical leader ousted in favour of Khamenei in 1989 --- do not replace the challenge on the streets. Jannati noted this yesterday when he warned opposition leaders, ""You were behind these unrests. You are responsible for the bloodshed… Now you go to their graves and offer prayers? Sooner or later, you will be punished for your unlawful acts."
However, since Rafsanjani chose to make his challenge public when he led prayers on 17 July, it is his specific threat that has galvanised supporters of the current regime. It is no coincidence that Jannati, the Secretary of the Guardian Council, is also one of the key figures behind the letter --- signed by 16 of the 86 members of the Assembly of Experts --- that tried to remove Rafsanjani as chairman of that body. And a contributing factor to his address was the reaction from other members of the Assembly, who sharply rebuked him and others for claiming a widespread mandate for the letter --- Jannati directly responded by claiming that while many members scattered around the country could not sign, they of course were fully supportive of the contents.
So the regime turns its eyes upon and points its fingers at Rafsanjani, waiting for his response. That still leaves intriguing questions, four days before the Presidential inauguration: if Rafsanjani is willing to compromise by promising no long-term challenge to the Supreme Leader and the system, will Jannati and his colleagues, including Khamenei, sacrifice Ahmadinejad? And, as the first trials of detainees begin today, with hundreds (how many hundreds?) languishing in prison, will the regime risk saying, "We were wrong", by giving in to the primary demand --- a demand not only of the Green opposition but of Rafsanjani and other political and clerical figures within the system --- to release and apologise to those who were taken off the streets and from their homes?
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
Less than 24 hours after the "40th Day" memorial demonstrations, the regime offered its response through Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati's address at Friday prayers in Tehran. The message was far from subtle, but for some it may be surprising.Right now, those supporting the Government do not see the protestors as the main threat. The challenge does not come from the leaders of that movement, such as Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karoubi, or Mohammad Khatami. It is not even in the statements of senior clerics from Qom.
The man they fear is former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.
On reflection, this may always have been the case. A week after the election, in his address at Friday prayers, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gave nothing to the Green opposition. However, he devoted much attention to Rafsanjani, offering conciliatory words over the verbal fighting before the election (especially over "corruption") but concluding that he preferred the political views of President Ahmadinejad.
The difference yesterday was that Jannati did not extend any hand of compromise to Rafsanjani. Instead, he cast him as the shadow behind the post-election conflict, "an unrest four years in the making". That reference to the 2005 election, in which Ahmadinejad defeated Rafsanjani in the second round, could not have been clearer. (Even Press TV English is openly framing this as a showdown allegation against the former President.) Jannati charged, "After defeat was inflicted on a certain figure four years ago, those who could not stand a young man in power colluded against him. Since then, they have planned to avenge (their loss)."
The "young man" reference deserves special attention. As sharper analysts of Iran have noted, there is a wider battle here between politicians and clerics who emerged in the early years of the Revolution, including Rafsanjani and Mousavi, and a "new guard" including Ahmadinejad. In 2005 the Supreme Leader, despite having gained his position in 1989 in large part because of Rafsanjani's manoeuvring, backed the "young man" in what was widely seen as a political upset.
The shifting alliances --- Rafsanjani now finds himself on the same side as Ayatollah Montazeri, the clerical leader ousted in favour of Khamenei in 1989 --- do not replace the challenge on the streets. Jannati noted this yesterday when he warned opposition leaders, ""You were behind these unrests. You are responsible for the bloodshed… Now you go to their graves and offer prayers? Sooner or later, you will be punished for your unlawful acts."
However, since Rafsanjani chose to make his challenge public when he led prayers on 17 July, it is his specific threat that has galvanised supporters of the current regime. It is no coincidence that Jannati, the Secretary of the Guardian Council, is also one of the key figures behind the letter --- signed by 16 of the 86 members of the Assembly of Experts --- that tried to remove Rafsanjani as chairman of that body. And a contributing factor to his address was the reaction from other members of the Assembly, who sharply rebuked him and others for claiming a widespread mandate for the letter --- Jannati directly responded by claiming that while many members scattered around the country could not sign, they of course were fully supportive of the contents.
So the regime turns its eyes upon and points its fingers at Rafsanjani, waiting for his response. That still leaves intriguing questions, four days before the Presidential inauguration: if Rafsanjani is willing to compromise by promising no long-term challenge to the Supreme Leader and the system, will Jannati and his colleagues, including Khamenei, sacrifice Ahmadinejad? And, as the first trials of detainees begin today, with hundreds (how many hundreds?) languishing in prison, will the regime risk saying, "We were wrong", by giving in to the primary demand --- a demand not only of the Green opposition but of Rafsanjani and other political and clerical figures within the system --- to release and apologise to those who were taken off the streets and from their homes?