UPDATED Iran Analysis: What Has Green Movement Achieved? (Sahimi)

UPDATED 18 August: There has been a good deal of chatter about a response to Sahimi's article by an unidentified blogger: "The Green Movement has achieved a lot, but not through the help or leadership of the so-called reformers (which in reality acted as a damage control to avoid any major pressure on the regime that may lead to regime change), but through the courage of the Iranian people who took to the streets and protested, even confronted the brutal and fully armed thug regime by their own bare hands to delegitimize and expose the Islamic Republic while expressing to the world that how different the Iranian people are compare to the Islamic occupiers of the Islamic regime. "



Muhammad Sahimi writes for Tehran Bureau:

The Green Movement is over one year old. The large street demonstrations and gatherings, both before and after the rigged presidential election of June 2009, that gave birth to the movement, have largely ended. The world has shifted its attention back to Iran's nuclear program and away from the struggle by a large majority of the Iranian people for a better society. Disappointment and even hopelessness permeate a small, but significant, segment of Iranian society, both at home and in the diaspora. We must ask, Is the Green Movement still alive or is it dead? If it is still alive, what has it achieved, given the heavy price that Iranians have paid over the last 15 months?....

[Sections on Three Perspectives and Background of Movement]

Achievements of the Green Movement

This is the environment in which the Green Movement was born. Let us now consider its achievements.

Demonstrating the ineffectiveness of Velaayat-e Faghih

The backbone of Iran's political system is the doctrine of Velaayat-e Faghih (guardianship of the Islamic jurist), represented by the Supreme Leader. The 1989 revisions of the Constitution gave nearly absolute power to the Leader on many fronts, and Ayatollah Khamenei has not hesitated to use the power in his attempt to crush the opposition. But his attempts have come at a heavy price: the republican aspect of the political system has essentially become irrelevant, and the vast majority of the people do not recognize the legitimacy of the Faghih. The erosion in the doctrine's legitimacy and its glaring ineffectiveness has forced the hardliners to claim that it is, in fact, not the people that represent the source of legitimacy forVelaayat-e Faghih. Rather it is God who appoints the Supreme Leader and the role of the people -- or their representatives in the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body that names the Supreme Leader -- is to discover the appointee. It is now clear, more than ever, that a large, complex, and dynamic nation such as Iran cannot be run by the system of Velaayat-e Faghih,a concept that is not even accepted by the majority of Shia clerics. In fact, only the hardliners' use of force has allowed Velaayat-e Faghih to survived as long as it has.

The fall of Ayatollah Khamenei

Long before last year's election, it was clear to the nation that Ahmadinejad was Khamenei's preferred candidate. In a meeting with Ahmadinejad's cabinet a year before the election, the ayatollah told the ministers, "Do not work as if you will be in charge for only one more year, but plan for five more years." The ayatollah had also strongly supported Ahmadinejad during his first term, even when his incompetence had become too obvious to ignore.

When on June 13, 2009, the day after the rigged presidential vote, Khamenei congratulated Ahmadinejad on his "reelection," not even waiting for the Guardian Council to certify the vote's legitimacy, it became clear that he had tied his maintenance of power to Ahmadinejad. He lost any residual legitimacy six days later when, leading Tehran's Friday Prayers, he threatened the opposition and declared that if any blood was spilled, it would be the opposition's fault. Ever since, Khamenei has been the leader of just one political faction -- and a shaky one at that -- rather than the fatherly figure that the Supreme Leader is supposed to be.

These events have led some of Khamenei's most loyal supporters to desert him. Mohammad Nourizad is one good example. An artist and journalist who used to write for Kayhan, the mouthpiece of the hardliners, he has written several open letters to the ayatollah, criticizing him on all fronts. Hislatest letter is particularly sharp, not only for its content, but also for its tone. Nourizad refers to the ayatollah as "Sayyed Ali." That is totally unprecedented.

The net result of all of this is that Khamenei is now despised by the vast majority of Iranians. He was already held in contempt when he prevented the "smiling Sayyed" -- as people affectionately referred to Khatami -- from carrying out his reforms. But events since last year have made him the most loathed figure in Iran, even more than Ahmadinejad.

Despite their pretense otherwise, even the hardliners are keenly aware of this. Not only have they been attempting to tie the ayatollah and his "legitimacy" to a higher authority -- God Himself -- they have also been busy trying to present a "softer," "gentler" image of the ayatollah to the nation. Thus the arrangement of meetings between him and artists, poets, authors, young people, and so forth. In most cases, the true artists and intellectuals -- those who support the Green Movement -- stay away, and the effort has failed miserably. The hardliners have also tried to portray the ayatollah as someone who lives very simply, is utterly uncorrupted, and has no wealth of which to speak.

Even if the claim is true, he remains corrupt -- his thirst for absolute power seems to have no limit.

Revealing the true nature of the fundamentalists

Iranian Islamic fundamentalists refer to themselves as Principlists, simply because they know that the word "fundamentalist" has very negative connotations. During the Khatami era, they claimed to support a religious democracy. But when the Reformists swept the elections for the 6th Majles and Khatami was reelected by a margin that surpassed the one in his initial victory, it became clear that the fundamentalists would lose almost any competitive vote, let alone ones that were truly free and fair. That is why they have been using the organs of power to hold "engineered elections" -- those whose outcome is a priori fixed in their favor. The Guardian Council vets the candidates and blocks those who are popular and credible from running. Even then, the fundamentalists change the votes (as they did last year) or declare an election flawed so that they can cancel it (as has happened with many elections for seats in the Majles).

Last year's rigged election, and particularly the violent reaction by the hardliners to people's peaceful protests in its aftermath, basically burst the bubble for the fundamentalists. Even they recognize it. There is no longer any pretense to a religious democracy. Some leading fundamentalists now speak openly about the Islamic Government of Iran, rather than the Islamic Republic of Iran. All the talk about the impending return of Mahdi -- the Shiites' 12th Imam, who is supposed to emerge from hiding one day -- represents another facet of the fundamentalists' attempt to distance themselves from any pretense to meaningful elections and democracy. Who can blame them? They cannot win any meaningful election.

Gaping fissures in the ranks of the fundamentalists

Last year's election and its aftermath have also deepened the fissures in the conservative and fundamentalist ranks. There is constant infighting among them. Many Majles deputies criticize Ahmadinejad. Many of them have made revelations about members of his cabinet, such as accusing First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi of having a fake doctoral degree and of involvement in a $700 million embezzlement case. Majles Speaker Ali Larijani has accused Ahmadinejad of breaking the law and appointing those Larijani calls foroumaayegaan (roughly, "utterly unqualified") to the cabinet.

Some Majles deputies have even spoken of impeaching Ahmadinejad. This is all happening in a body in which 200 of the deputies supposedly belong to the fundamentalist camp. Ahmadinejad recently complained to Khamenei that "running the nation has encountered difficulties."

Khamenei effectively sacked Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, who Ahmadinejad preferred as his first vice president. Even the reactionary Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, Ahmadinejad's spiritual advisor, has attacked Mashaei.

Still, the president has appointed his close ally to numerous posts. Mashaei is Ahmadinejad's chief of staff, secretary-general of the government's cultural commission, head of the council for free economic zones, head of the council of young advisors to the president, head of the Razavi pilgrimage and culture, representative of the president in the national council of the Iranians in diaspora, head of the Institute for Globalization, and head of the government's communication council. This means nothing but fissures between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei, his most important supporter.

Majles deputy Morteza Nabavi, manager of Resaalat, a leading conservative daily, and a former cabinet member, said in a recent interview, "We do not have the required stability in the ranks of the government officials. They do not all think alike, and are not united. We do not have this even among the elite Principlists. Some of our friends tell me explicitly that they have given up. But you do not see the same in the opposition. Today, only a few defend the Supreme Leader." Khamenei himself has openly talked about the khavaas-e bibasirat (roughly, "unwise, useless elite") who have failed to openly support him.

At the same time, the military faction of the fundamentalists, led by the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia, has been putting relentless pressure on the more moderate, more pragmatic conservatives, in order to coerce their support. The attempt to take over the Islamic Azad University is but one example. Ahmadinejad recently declared, "There is only one political party, and that is the Party of Velaayat," implying that all other political groups, even within the conservative/hardline camp, should be disbanded. The pressure on such parties has been so heavy that it prompted Mohammad Reza Bahonar -- a leading fundamentalist and former Majles deputy speaker, whose nephew Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi is a close confidant of Ahmadinejad's -- to declare, "A threat to the Principlists' front is a small faction within the front itself that is increasingly making more transparent its plan for eliminating the rest of the Principlists." Bahonar's own faction, the Islamic Coalition Party, which represented the backbone of the right wing during most of the Rafsanjani and Khatami eras, feels threatened and left out.

Fissures in the Revolutionary Guards

The Green Movement has also penetrated the rank and file of the Revolutionary Guards, where there has long been speculation about possible fissures. Major General Mohammad Ali (Aziz) Jafari, the top Guard commander, has finally confirmed such speculations. He admitted in a recent news conference, "We have had some casualties in the 'soft war,'" which is how the hardliners refer to the popular struggle for democracy. He also admitted that the Green Movement has supporters among the Guards, and that the events of the past year have created "ambiguities" for some Guard commanders. He said, "We have tried to convince them that they are wrong, which is better than physical elimination."

Credible reports indicate that at least 250 Guard commanders have either been forced into retirement or expelled. Some former Guard commanders who supported Mousavi have been arrested and tortured badly. One recent example is Hamzeh Karami.

Fissures between the Guards and Ahmadinejad

Even though Ahamadinejad could have never risen to power without the active support of the Guards and Basij, there have been consistent and credible reports of tension between him and some of the top Guard commanders. In one episode in February 2010, the president and General Jafari got into a heated argument during a meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

Jafari shouted at Ahmadinejad, "Have some shame. It is due to your incompetence that Iran has been in chaos for six months."

Fissures between Ayatollah Khamenei and the Guards

Even though the Guard and Basij commanders repeatedly declare their loyalty to Khamenei, I believe that their long-term plan is to eliminate the clerics from the organs of power. Having already described this in an article last year and returned to the topic in an article this June, I will not go into further detail about it here.

Fissures in the ranks of the clerics

Among the most important fruits of the Green Movement have been the deep fissures in the ranks of the clerics, including the leading ayatollahs. The most prominent moderate ayatollahs, such as Yousef Sanei, Ali Mohammad Dastgheyb, Asadollah Bayat Zanjani, and Mohammad Mousavi Khoeinihahave openly supported the Green Movement and harshly criticized the hardliners and Ahmadinejad. The Green Movement has damaged the credibility of Khamenei so much that the only ayatollahs openly supporting him are either those who owe their positions to the fundamentalists and hardliners that prop them up, such as Ayatollah Hossein Noori-Hamedani, or the reactionary ayatollahs who also have reputations for being corrupt, men such as former judiciary chief Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, Secretary-General of the Guardian Council Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, and Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, who is believed to aspire to Khamenei's position. There is not a single ayatollah with any credibility among the people who supports the fundamentalists and Khamenei. The rest of the Supreme Leader's clerical support mostly comes from young former students of Mesbah Yazdi.

The remaining ayatollahs can be divided into two groups. One group comprises those who are totally silent, indicating their displeasure and disapproval of the current regime. The other comprises those who have shown their displeasure by their actions. For example, two important conservative clerics, Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Ostadi, refused to lead the Qom Friday Prayers for several weeks.Ayatollah Abdollah Javadi Amoli, a maternal uncle of the Larijani brothers, even declared that he would never lead Friday Prayers again. Almost all of these ayatollahs refused to congratulate Ahmadinejad on his "reelection." In a Friday Prayer sermon last year, Ostadi vehemently criticized the supporters of Ahmadinejad.

This has also deepened the fissures between Khamenei and most of the important ayatollahs. He has tried to get some credible ayatollah to certify his son Mojtaba as a mojtahed (Islamic scholar), without success. He pressured some of the major ayatollahs to congratulate Ahmadinejad on his "reelection," but they refused. There are credible reports that the ayatollahs have rebuked Khamenei for supporting "the worst possible person" for the presidency -- Ahmadinejad -- and have told him that if they follow suit, they will lose their popular support and following.

Grand Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpayegani, the first secretary-general of the Guradian Council, recently told Khamenei, referencing his transgressions and his eternal fate, "You have lost this world, and I worry for you in the other world." When pressured by Khamenei's representatives to meet with Ahmadinejad, the grand ayatollah reportedly said, "I will never let such a ----- into my home."

Grand Ayatollah Hossein Vahid Khorasani, father-in-law of Sadegh Larijani, the judiciary chief, is also known to oppose Khamenei. When the right-wing clergy tried to promote Khamenei as a marja' taghlid (source of emulation) in the 1990s, Vahid Khorasani is known to have told him, "You be the sultan, but leave marjaeiyat to others."

Whenever Khamenei visits Qom, Vahid Khorasani and many other leading ayatollahs leave town to avoid having to meet with him.

Such frictions have also created suspicions within Khamenei's inner circle. When he recently traveled to Qom and met with Ayatollah Javadi Amoli at the home of Amoli's sister (Amoli apparently wanted to avoid meeting in Amoli's own home), Amoli's staff brought cups of teas for both men. An aide to Khamenei then switched the tea that had been given to his boss with the one given to Amoli, as if it might have been poisoned. Amoli wasreportedly so angered that he abruptly ended the meeting.

Khamenei clearly recognizes the significance of all these fissures, which is why he constantly emphasizes that the nation needs unity. What he really means, though, is that the hardliners must become united.

Transformation of the Guards into a political-security organization

As pointed out above, Ahmadinejad could not have come to power without significant help from the Guards and Basij. Such intervention by military organs into political affairs violates the creed of Khomeini, who strictly banned political involvement by the military. At first, the Guards would deny that they were intervening politically at all, though it was clear to most observers that the denials rang hollow. Then, as the Guards were increasingly called upon to intervene in affairs of state, they were forced to defend their actions with the excuse that they were protecting the country and the Revolution against "internal enemies." When that was mocked, General Jafari claimed that the Guards, or Sepah-e Pasdaran, had to obey the "the present era Vali," namely, the current Supreme Leader. When that did not work either, he finally had to admit, "Even before being a military organization, the Sepah is, first and foremost, a political-security organization."

The Guards can no longer conceal their aims. By supporting a repressive regime, they have made clear that they are opposing the wishes of a large majority of the people.

In effect, the Guards now play the same role that the military plays in Pakistan. This poses two dangers for Iran: First, it puts national security at risk, because the country's elite military forces are preoccupied with internal affairs, at a time when there is the possibility of foreign military attacks on Iran.

As Mousavi put it, referring to the Guards' economic interests, "When the Sepah is worried about the fluctuations in the stock market, it cannot defend the nation and its national interest, and becomes corrupt." Second, just as in the case of Pakistan, the militarization of Iran gives rise to extremist groups that may fall out of the Guards' control and create problems for the nation with adventurism abroad.

A movement neither religious nor nonreligious

Throughout Iran's modern history, there have been arguments between those who adhere to two opposing schools of thought: Those who claim that the reason Iran is not as advanced as it can and should be is the central role religion plays, and those who insist on keeping religion at the center. The Shah tried hard to eliminate religion as a social force. The Islamic Republic tries to justify everything it does based on religion.

The Green Movement is neither religious, nor nonreligious. It is a social movement that encompasses all those, regardless of their religion, gender, ethnicity, and political views, that worry about Iran and its future and want their country to be run by a just and democratic system in which the rule of law is supreme and all citizens are equal. This has been emphasized by both Mousavi and his wife, Dr. Rahnavard, which has angered the hardliners, who accuse him of planning to eliminate religion from governance.

As such, the movement is unique, and its very nature constitutes a great achievement. This is the first time that Iran has had such a movement, which bodes well for its future.

A nonviolent movement

The Green Movement rejects violence because it aims to achieve national progress lawfully, not through force. It emphasizes the significance of executing the laws without exception. In fact, the movement's leaders correctly recognize that if the fate of the present struggle were to be decided by violence, the sure loser would be the Green Movement. The hardliners are armed to the teeth, and do not hesitate to use violence. Moreover, the hardliners do not even mind if the movement resorts to violence, because it would give them the perfect excuse to carry out a large-scale massacre of the movement's supporters. The nonviolent nature of the movement, despite the hardline-sponsored violence that resulted in the murder of at least 110 people and the torture of countless others in the aftermath of last year's rigged election, is another great achievement.

A noncharismatic movement

The Green Movement is not based on its leaders' charisma. In fact, Mousavi and Karroubi can hardly be considered charismatic. While Khatami can, he has taken a backseat and plays his natural role, that of a deep thinker who criticizes the ruling establishment calmly and rationally. For example, as Khamenei and his supporters refer to the Green Movement as fetneh (sedition), Khatami has responded, "The true fetneh is the amateurish lies that are being told to the nation." He recently observed, "In dictatorships, criticism is interpreted as the effort to overthrow the political system."

Instead of being based on the personal charisma of its leaders, the Green Movement is based on the social, economic, and political demands of Iran's citizens. In short, the movement wants justice and equality -- social, political, and economic -- for all Iranians. These demands will not be met unless the nation becomes a true republic, which is why the leaders of the movement insist on the republican features of the Constitution and underscore how the hardliners have rendered them meaningless.

A pragmatic movement

The Green Movement is pragmatic. It recognizes its strengths and weaknesses, as well as those of the hardliners. Thus, the movement does not set lofty goals meant to be swiftly achieved. Ideals always sound wonderful on paper. But at the end of the day, one must confront the facts on the ground: The hardliners are armed to the teeth, control the nation's vast resources, have a significant -- albeit narrow -- social base, and are ready to fight to the end, simply because they have no place to go.

At the same time, it is a grave mistake to think that every citizen that is unhappy with the hardliners wants, first and foremost, political and social freedom. It is a grave mistake to believe that every morning, when the dissatisfied citizens of Iran wake up, the first thing that they all think about is respect for human rights or freedom of expression. I am not saying that they do not care about such rights, but that they may not be the top priority of every citizen who is unhappy with the hardliners. For some, for many, economic grievances are primary.

Thus, as Mousavi has emphasized, the most important thing to settle on is a set of minimum demands about which every unhappy citizen agrees, so that the movement can inspire maximum support. Mousavi himself is the embodiment of this pragmatism. He represents the mainstream of the movement. There are some who are more radical than him, and some who are more conservative. In my opinion, pragmatism is crucial to the future success of the movement.

A growing movement

Despite some claims to the contrary, the Green Movement continues to grow. The best evidence is the fact that the hardliners are still on the defensive. Illegal arrests persist. Show trials are still resulting in long jail sentences. The hardliners continue to make absurd claims in the attempt to discredit the movement's leaders, such as the recent assertion by Ayatollah Jannati that the United States, via Saudi Arabia, provided $1 billion to Khatami to spend against the ruling establishment.

Minister of Intelligence Haydar Moslehi then claimed that it was not $1 billion, but $17 billion that the United States spent in Iran. Khamenei recentlywarned the hardliners, "Be prepared for larger fetneh."

The movement has also grown intellectually. The best evidence for this is the dramatic evolution of Mousavi himself.

All one needs do is compare the Mousavi of the period immediately around the rigged election with the present one. Whereas he used to say that the Constitution must be executed word for word, he now says that the Constitution is not God's words and thus inalterable. Rather, after the movement's minimum set of demands has been achieved, the Constitution can be revised and its undemocratic articles eliminated. Mousavi has also emphasized the rights of all citizens, and his positions are now those of a person who truly believes in a democratic political system....

[Section on Green Movement and Iran's Nuclear Programme]

Read full article....

Comments

[Dale Andersen]

The opposition is a majority only in your dreams, Petunia. The Regime will be in power for years to come. It will fall only when the opposition finds a leader who understands how to organize an armed insurrection.

[Arshama]

Mr Sahimi's analysis, though well-founded and very detailed, appears to me as one of those calls for perseverance to the defenders of a system, which has lost most of its legitimacy on both the domestic and international level. Criticising the Velayate Faghih and the hardliners is certainly meant to strengthen the embattled reformers, but the IR as such is never questioned.
The biases become visible at the very beginning [Sections on Three Perspectives and Background of Movement], where Sahimi mentions MEK, monarchists and neocons in the same breath, the typical approach of the IR for labeling its "enemies".
The same goes for the section on the background of the Movement, in which the mass executions of 1988 are done away euphemistically as "the political repression of the 1980s".
The next indication for the shrewd downplay of fatal domestic developments is: "Second, just as in the case of Pakistan, the militarization of Iran gives rise to extremist groups that may fall out of the Guards’ control and create problems for the nation with adventurism abroad."
Altough the Bassiji attacks on Grand Ayatollahs, parliament and the Green Movement, including its leaders, are mentioned before, Mr Sahimi simply speaks of "extremists groups that MAY fall out of the Guards’ control and create problems for the nation". Obviously more than 100 killed protesters, and violent attacks on the homes of high-ranking citizens in Qom (Ayatollah Sane'i) and Tehran (Mehdi Karroubi) are not to be considered as "problems for the nation".
While the sevenfolded budget for the Bassijis is mentioned in the section on the background of the movement, it does not appear in this conclusion.
Mr Sahimi prefers to point out their "adventurism abroad" instead, repeating well-known threats by the regime (closing the Hormoz Strait and taking Americans as hostages in Iraq and Afghanistan as of today: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=20594" rel="nofollow">http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=20594).

To sum up, Mr Sahimi offers a nice "all is well" analysis for the Green Movement, which certainly will cheer up all supporters, but he volutarily closes his eyes to dangerous developments on both the domestic and international scale. Burying one's head in the sand, while the regime has announced 700 news Bassiji bases, sevenfolded these extremists groups' budget and continues to insult and menace the international community is certainly no convincing answer to the problems of the Iranian people.

[Bozorg]

"The Green Movement is pragmatic. It recognizes its strengths and weaknesses, as well as those of the hardliners. Thus, the movement does not set lofty goals meant to be swiftly achieved. Ideals always sound wonderful on paper. But at the end of the day, one must confront the facts on the ground: The hardliners are armed to the teeth, control the nation’s vast resources, have a significant — albeit narrow — social base, and are ready to fight to the end, simply because they have no place to go."

Therefore, let's be pragmatic and do nothing, and call it something.

[Bijan77]

In reading the blog response I noticed a discussion about the Carter administration supporting Khomeini..this is the first I have heard of this. Can anyone confirm/deny this statement?

Regards,

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