The Latest from Iran (29 August): The "Hidden Imam" Circle

2050 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad (Foreign Policy Edition). Well, we started the day with a story of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani against the President, so let's close with one....

On Sunday, Larijani implicitly criticised Ahmadinejad's appointment of four special representatives, including Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim Mashai, for foreign policy affairs, telling reporters, “I have not had the chance to ask the Foreign Ministry about the rationale behind this decision."

Larijani added to the jibe by saying that under current conditions, foreign policy issues must be dealt with more vigilantly.

Larijani is far from alone in his concern. On Saturday, Alaeddin Boroujerdi said Parliament's National Security Commission, which he chairs, is concerned over the appointment of Mashaei due to his lack of expertise and the number of posts that he holds.

The former Iranian ambassador to China and Pakistan, Javad Mansouri, has also said the appointment of inexperienced people as special envoys is “irrational”. He added that the role of the Foreign Ministry, as Iran’s ambassadors do not know whose orders they should follow.

Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, appearing on Sunday before Parliament, was caught up in heated exchanges over the issue.

NEW Iran: Ahmadinejad Attacks Rafsanjani & “Corrupt” Foes; “Overthrowers Have Not Been Punished Yet” (Kamdar)
UPDATED Iran: Tehran Declares Readiness for Nuclear Talks?
NEW Iran: An Ayatollah's "Larijani is a Jew" Declaration
Iran: Obama Rejects a Public “Red Line” on Nuclear Capability (Porter)
Iran Music Special: The Kanye West No-War Rap
The Latest from Iran (28 August): Music, Sanctions, and Science

2045 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Women's rights activists Maryam Bidgoli and Fatemeh Masjedi have each been given one-year sentences for “spreading propaganda against the state, through collection of signatures for changing discriminatory laws and publication of materials in support of a feminist group which works in opposition to the Regime.”

Bidgoli and Masjedi are both members of the One Million Signatures Campaign for women's rights.

1850 GMT: No Religion in the Islamic Republic? Kalemeh, the website linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi, reports that Mousavi supporters were prevented by security forces from holding a Ramadan religious ceremony in Mashhad.

1845 GMT: And the Answer Is.... You cannot imagine my excitement just now when I read the Press TV headline, "Ahmadinejad Reveals Source of All Crises".

I'm thinking Britney Spears. Or Justin Bieber. Yes, definitely Justin Bieber.

Alas, not only am I wrong but the President's answer is far more mundane: "Monarchic regimes and hegemonic powers are the source of all global crises."

1835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Shohreh Taghati, the wife of imprisoned lawyer Mohammad Oliyaifard, has said her husband cannot appeal his one-year sentence --- handed down for speaking to foreign media about Iranian juveniles facing the death penalty --- because the verdict has not been formally given to him.

Oliyaifard was sentenced in February and has been in detention since March.

1830 GMT: The Gasoline Squeeze. Ali-Reza Zeighami, the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Products Refining and Distribution Company, has said Iran is about to increase its gasoline production significantly, reaching a target of 191 million litres of gasoline a day.

Iran, according to Zeighami, currently produced 45 million litres of gasoline daily, with 64 million litres being consumed. He warned that, if a gasoline rationing plan is not implemented, the consumption will increase to 100 to 120 million litres a day.

Zeighami said most of the increase in gasoline production plan will occur by the end of the Fifth Development Plan (2015).

1820 GMT: The Purge of the Universities. Minister of Science, Research and Technology Kamran Daneshjoo, who is responsible for higher education, says, "The enemies are making efforts to replace the Islamic atmosphere in [Iranian] universities with their liberal democratic environment."

Daneshjoo's remarks follow last Sunday's statement by Ayatollah Khamenei to university students in Tehran that higher education institutions have become the main "target" of plots by foreign powers.

Daneshjoo said Tehran would publish evidence proving the involvement of several foreign intelligence agencies in efforts to "negatively influence" students.

The Press TV article quoting Daneshjoo does not mention that Iranian authorities have replaced about 20 heads of higher education institutions in recent months.

1440 GMT: Parliament v. Government. Sources report to Tabnak that the impeachment effort against Minister of Energy Majid Namjoo has been halted.

1418 GMT: Protesting Executions. Footage has been posted of a protest in Washington DC yesterday, with EA's Josh Shahryar criticising the stoning of prisoners.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrzKlAxwQ4I[/youtube]

The International Committee Against Stoning has posted reports of demonstrations in other cities around the world.

1415 GMT: Education Watch. Teachers have protested in front of the Parliament over the dismissal of 120,000 colleagues across Iran.

1410 GMT: Lots happening in Iran on both the domestic and international fronts --- we've got two new features. An update brings the latest on Iran's confused but possibly hopeful position over nuclear talks with the US, while Nazanin Kamdar reports on an apparent Ahmadinejad outburst threatening former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and "corrupt" foes.

0915 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran's Statistics Centre reports that 730,000 land labourers have lost their jobs during the last five years. Causes include no loans, no government support for purchase of harvests, and escalating imports.

0905 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Nokia Siemens Edition). Kaveh Shahrooz provides extensive legal background on the lawsuit filed by detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz and his son Media against Nokia Siemens Networks for selling and providing surveillance technology to Iranian authorities.

0805 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English reports on detained Kurdish activist Rahim Rashi, who is on Day 38 of a hunger strike.

0800 GMT: We've got a story you don't see everyday: "An Ayatollah's 'Larijani is a Jew' Declcaration".

0720 GMT: Oops! The President's Foreign Policy Guys. Khabar Online reports the first mis-step for the four special representatives appointed by the President's office this week. Hamid Baghaei, Ahmadinejad's deputy for Asia, called he mass murder of Armenians a "genocide". That caused an uproar in the Turkish media, and Foreign Minister Mottaki's explanatory phone call reportedly did not convince his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu.

705 GMT: Too Dangerous to Remember Khomeini? For the second year in a row, Iranian authorities have cancelled all religious ceremonies for "Qadr nights" at the mausoleum of Ayatollah Khomeini, scheduled for mid-September. Clerics who normally preside include former President Mohammad Khatami, former Presidential candidate Nategh Nouri, and Hashemi Rafsanjani ally Hassan Rohani.

0635 GMT: Reconciliation? Last Sunday we were watching as President Ahmadinejad and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, brought together by the Supreme Leader, declared co-operation.

This Sunday we are reading the statement of Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei, the spokesman of the Guardian Council: "We have to pray that the Government implements the Majlis' laws. The Guardian Council cannot do anything else."

Kadkhodaei added that Parliament has abided to the laws and that there has to be a resolution between the Government and Majlis within weeks. If that did not come, then the Supreme Leader had to make decisions.

MP Elyas Naderan, a leading critic of the Government, has protested that the President is trying to establish "unilateral unity". Naderan said that, as the Supreme Leader declared, unity does not mean the constant retreat of one side.

Mehr reports that an arbitration committee is trying to resolve the disputes.

0630 GMT: Khatami Intervention. Former President Mohammad Khatami has declared that a just Government cannot use its monopoly on arms to oppress its citizens and that its most important duty is to defend their rights.

0615 GMT: We start today by noting a most provocative report: Mohammad Javad Haghshenas, the manager of the Etemade Melli newspaper, raided by Iranian authorities and closed last autumn, claims there is an "Urumiyeh Circle", consisting of President Ahmadinejad and close advisors. This group all believe in and pursue policies based on the return of the 12th "hidden" Imam.

According to Haghshenas, the circle began with Ahmadinejad, key advisor Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, and 2005 Presidential campaign manager. Later adherents include Sadegh Masouli, now Minister of Welfare, and the President's controversial Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

Haghshenas adds that Rahim-Mashai was in the Minister of Intelligence but was dismissed because of his messianic views. He says "Ahmadinejad loves [Rahim-Mashai] more than normal and gives him multitude of offices to solidify his position as next President".

Wow, what a claim. Who could dare publish this? Surely some newspaper outside Iran, connected to the Greens, reformists, and/or Ahmadinejad's bitterest foes?

Nope. The report is featured in Khabar Online, connected to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and now --- given the sweeping ban on reformist and Green media --- the effective opposition newspaper inside Iran.

Iran Latest (15 August): Revolutionary Guards' "Election Tape"

1400 GMT: Talking Tough (Larijani Edition). Iran's Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani said that the fake US claim of interest in talks with Iran, following their tireless efforts to push through sanctions at the UN, amounts to yet another scandal for the Americans:
"You have committed crimes in Afghanistan... We don't share a common path to negotiate with you."

1330 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Families of 16 hunger strikers have demanded visit permits from the judiciary, especially Tehran's Prosecutor General, after 21 days without news.

1300 GMT: Bazaar Batlle, New Round. During the month of Tir (July/August), 277,000 shops and firms were controlled, and 38,500 fines were given. Bazaaris have to pay millions, $400,000 for a pharmaceutical firm, $20 million for a textile company, high fines for airlines and smuggler of clothes. Government tries to put the blame on the inflation in Bazaar, while economic experts criticise the government's economic mismanagement as main reason for it.

1200 GMT: At a meeting with former members of the Union of Islamic Associations in Europe, former president Mohammad Khatami said that "criticism is equal to subversion in dictatorships." That is why we made a Revolution, in which free speech and criticisim are not only a right, but a duty of people. As Imam Khomeini said, rulers should not believe that people have no right to criticise, which is to sabotage heavenly benevolence.

1130GMT: The head of the trading arm of Lukoil said his company Litasco was not selling gasoline to Iran, after traders said sales had resumed despite US and European Union sanctions.

"We are not supplying to Iran. We have no existing contracts and we don't have any joint ventures with Chinese or any other companies to supply gasoline," Litasco chief executive Sergey Chaplygin told Reuters in Geneva.

1045 GMT: The heads of the three branches of goverment, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Sadegh Larijani, and Ali Larijani meet today in Majlis.

1030 GMT: Deputy Speaker of Parliament Boroujerdi blames Germany and France of having broken their contracts and calls them as "not trustable".

1000 GMT: The President's Right-Hand Man (cont.). MP Mohammad Javad Abtahi, from the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution, has written to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, asking him to issue a caution against his Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Mashai. Many MPs, including some outside Abtahi's, have asked to sign, and there are now more than 50 signatories. The letter is likely to be read in the Majlis on Tuesday.
Yalthareth, quoting member of Parliament Hamid Rasaie, claims that there has been a secret meeting between the Supreme Leader and hardline MPs.
Ayatollah Khamenei reportedly defended the President and his Government because they have "more positive points than negative".

The news of the meeting was published after influential MP Ali Motahari compared Ahmadinejad with the extremist Forghan group, whose members killed Motahari's father, one of the key actors in the Islamic Revolution, and were executed shortly afterwards.

0900GMT: Senior reformist politician Mostafa Tajzadeh has been called back to Evin Prison after filing a lawsuit against several commanders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps for their interference in Iranian elections.

0830GMT: Cinema Corner. Iran’s late-night Ramadan screenings have sparked outrage among some clerics. “Is there any control on cinemas that encourage people to watch films during Ramadan instead of praying and supplicating?” Mashhad Friday Prayer leader Seyyed Ahmad Alamolhoda said on Friday.

0700 GMT: The Revolutionary Guard and the "Election Tape". Brigadier Yadollah Javani, the head of the political bureau of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has defended the audio tape (and thus confirmed it) in which IRGC Commander Moshfegh explained procedures to deal with the opposition before and after the election.

Seven prominent detained reformists have said they will bring a lawsuit for the comments.

"If the complaint of the 7 persons against commander Moshfegh will be taken to court, they have to appear and much more details will be published about the fact, who has inflicted blows to the Islamic system, unity and national security in this fitna (sedition)."

0445 GMT: I will be travelling across France today, so entries from me will be very limited. However, as usual, EA readers are invited to send in their news, ideas, and analysis.

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Returning to the Streets?

1800 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh reports that the unemployment rate has risen across Iran by 3.5% since last spring. In 26 of the country's provinces, the average is now 14.6%.

1745 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Labour activist Pedram Nasrollahi has been sentenced to four months in prison for “acting against national security” and “propaganda against the system by joining the women’s council”.

Kurdish painter Mokhtar Houshmand, the secretary of the Marivan Society of Visual Arts, remains in prison after his detention order was renewed for a month. His family has reportedly been denied a meeting or talking with him on the phone. The family has also been prohibited from talking to the media.

1735 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Kalemeh reports that five political prisoners who recently ended a hunger strike were threatened by the director of Evin Prison to six months in solitary confinement. Those warned were journalists Ali Malihi, Bahman Ahmadi Amouie, Keyvan Samimi, and Kouhyar Goudarzi and Ashura protester Gholamhossein Arashi. 4 of them are journos, Arashi is a Ashura protester, severely beaten in prison.

1725 GMT: Spinning Bushehr. Washington has tried to convert the news that Russia will supply the fuel needed to make Iran's nuclear plant at Bushehr operational --- finally, after repeated delays --- into a case that Tehran does not need to carry out its own uranium enrichment.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said, "Russia is providing the fuel, and taking the fuel back out....(This) underscores that Iran does not need its own enrichment capability if its intentions, as it states, are for a peaceful nuclear program."

1510 GMT: The President's Right-Hand Man (cont.). How significant is the movement against Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai? An EA correspondent summarises:

*Javan News --- connected with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps --- now quotes Hassan Firouzabadi, chief of the General Staff, Habibullah Asgarowladi, secretary of the "conservative" Front of the Followers of the Path of the Imam, Ayatollah Kaabi, a member of the Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom, and Hojatoleslam Moe'tamed as condemning Rahim-Mashai's statements about "the school of Iran," which they call "nationalist" and a threat to the international and Islamist character of the Islamic Republic.

*Jomhouriye Eslami writes in an editorial that "support of higher authorities [Ahmadinejad] for Rahim-Mashai makes the situation worse".

*Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi: "Once more Mr. Mashaei has involved himself in discussions not worthy of him and has made wrong and unsuitable statements....It is not to the benefit of the regime, the office of the Presidency and the person of the President --- who has always been in the line of the leader and a supporter of religious foundations --- that his chief-of-staff engages in expert discussions about issues about which he is ignorant and harms his own dignity and those related to him even more."

*Alef News accuses Rahim-Mashai of "eclecticism" and condemns his statements about "human beings having the capacity to become God".

* MP Ali-Reza Zakani warns of a "new discord", likening Mashaei's statements with statements of former Prime Minister Mehdi Bazargan "who confessed that his conflict with His Holiness the Imam [Khomeini] was that we want Islam for Iran, but the Imam wants Iran for Islam".

1420 GMT: Shutting Down Green Media. A week after it was launched, the website of the new Green channel, Rasa TV, has been filtered by the Ministry of Intelligence.

1410 GMT: Challenges to the President (cont.): MP Ahmad Tavakkoli has criticised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for disregarding the laws ratified by the Parliament and the Expediency Council.

Tavakkoli accused the president of intransigence, and said, “I am sorry that the president values his personal interpretation too much.”

MP Parviz Sorouri also criticized the President, “Any law that is ratified should be implemented. The president is not in a position to say whether a particular law is correct or not."

1230 GMT: But Those Other Friday Prayers Might Be A Problem....

Away from Ayatollah Jannati's Tehran Friday Prayer, trying to deflect attention from problems for the regime, other sermons point to, well, problems for the regime.

In Qom, Mohammad Saeedi indirectly criticised the President while bolstering Ayatollah Khamenei, saying someone who manages the country has to follow the Supreme Leader as the representative of Prophets. Saeedi declared everyone has to abide to the laws ratified by Parliament and approved by the Guardian Council.

Elsewhere, alongside condemnation of US sanctions and praise of Lebanon's Sayyed Hassan Nasrullah for his stand against Israel, there were attacks on the President because of his aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai's "Iran principle", placing Tehran as a source of emulation ahead of Islam. In Mashhad, Ahmad Alamolhoda said any ruling against the Supreme Leader is obsolete. In Kashan, Abdolnabi Namazi directly said Rahim-Mashai's presence disturbed the Iranian clerics and people.

1200 GMT: International Front. Not sure what to make of this....

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Commission, claims that the Vienna group (US, France, Russia, International Atomic Energy Agency) has accepted the Iran-Brazil-Turkey statement on uranium enrichment, so there is no necessity for Brasilia and Ankara to join talks with the "5+1" powers of the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany.

1155 GMT: Put-Down of the Day? Khabar Online claims a large banner with President Ahmadinejad's picture was removed from the Qur'an exhibition at Tehran's Grand Mossalla.

1145 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Alireza Mir-Mohammad Sadeghi, the deputy to Minister of Oil Mirkazemi --- a target of Khabar Online for "wrong policies: --- has allegedly said that 12,000 oil managers are on the verge of retirement.

1045 GMT: Getting Jannati's Line Right. Press TV gives the proper spin to Friday's Friday Prayer by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, after recent difficulties over his speeches. Jannati, without re-stating the "$51 billion" coup allegation, warned against the discussions with the US:

You have forgotten what they (Americans) have done, you think they have changed…. They are the same….When they flash a green light it is [always] chicanery and a scam.

Jannati continued:

They think the Iranian people will give in under sanctions and adversities.…but the West's problem is that they do not know the Iranian nation and do not know who they are dealing with.

1025 GMT: The President's Right-Hand Man. The conservative Resalat devotes its main article to the "unacceptable statements" of Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

The newspaper says the comments provide a welcome excuse for conservatives to attack the Government and demands, "Mr Ahmadinejad, let the passengers without a ticket get off the (Government) train!"

Key MP and Government critic Ali Motahari goes farther and harsher, claiming that the thinking of the President and his followers about Islam is like the Forghan group who killed his father, Ayatollah Motahari, in 1979.

Motahari alleged that Ahmadinejad's and Rahim-Mashai's ideas do not comply with Islam. According to the MP, the President is neither a conservative nor a reformist, but because he is supported by the Supreme Leader, other clerics support him as well.

The Motahari's call for resistance: a MP must decide by himself, not according to the Supreme Leader's opinion. He strengthens the demand with the regret that MPs should have protested clearly against the Kahrizak abuse and the allegation that Ahmadinejad's refusal to implement laws is a sign of dictatorship.

1015 GMT: Three Islamic Revolution Guards Corps soldiers have been killed in clashes with members of the Kurdish separatist group PJAK.

1000 GMT: More on the "Jannati Line". Alongside Ayatollah Jannati's appearance at Friday Prayers, there is support for him from Esmail Kowsari, deputy head of the National Security Council, who claims the Majlis was informed about the documents for Jannati's claim of the $51 billion US-Saudi-opposition coup plan. Kowsari says the proof is in the Ministry of Intelligence.

MP Zohreh Elahian, a member of Parliament's National Security Commission, claims the documents will be given to prosecutors.

0915 GMT: Challenging Ahmadinejad. Khabar Online devotes its "headline" news to an analysis by Professor Pirouz Mojtahedzadeh, who criticises the President's foreign policy.

Mojtahedzadeh claims Iran's "turn to the East" led to damage to its nuclear energy programme, as Russia delayed completion of the Bushehr reactor, and to a quadrupline of imports from China.

(Last night, Voice of America claimed the cost to Iran of the Bushehr reactor was now close to $1 billion.)

The professor adds a significant comparison: during the Presidency of Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-1997), the east-bound policy was advisable, but it has now led Iran "to this mess". Instead of battling with one set of foreign powers (US, Europen Union) and making advances to another (Russia, China), Tehran should follow a balanced policy towards all.

0455 GMT: Execution (Ashtiani) Watch. Human Rights Watch has condemned the treatment of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery and presented on national TV on Wednesday with her "confession".

HRW women's rights researcher Nadya Khalife said, “The men who run Iran apparently have no shame at all, first pronouncing the barbaric sentence of death by stoning and then resorting to a televised confession. Under the circumstances there is every reason to believe that this so-called confession was coerced."

0430 GMT: We begin this morning with a look to the future, provided by an EA correspondent:

Roughly 3 weeks to Qods Day and a lot of chatter, whether Mousavi and Karroubi will invite the people to protests.

Another idea is going to the streets on the 27th of every month in accordance with Article 27 of the Constitution, assuring freedom of assembly.

Qods (Jerusalem) Day is the annual commemoration of Palestine. Last September, opposition supporters used the occasion to press their demands publicly in one of the largest post-election rallies.

Meanwhile....

47 Baha’is Currently In Prison
Following the recnet sentencing of seven Baha’i leaders in Iran to 20 years in prison each, Diane Ala’i, the representative of the Baha’i International Community has said that there are currently 47 members of the Baha’i Faith are inside Iranian prisons.

According to Ala’i, the Baha’is are not facing charges of mohareb (enmity with God), which carry the death penalty. They are accused of “acting against national security”, “participating in illegal groups", and “propagating the Baha’i Faith”.

Ala'i added that the seven leaders have been moved from Evin Prison to Rajai Shahr Prison in Gohardasht, Karaj. Families have been able to visit the prisoners once every two weeks for 10 minutes. They are allowed to see male relatives one week and female relatives the next, so the entire family cannot meet at the same time.

Ala'I said the verdicts for the seven Baha’i leaders have not yet been served in writing.

Cyber-Challenge

The Persian 30mail site, which features news roundups, has launched a competition for IT specialists to write a programme feeding news from Green sites to e-mail accounts and mobiles in Iran. Programmers selected in the first round receive $1000, and the finalist wins another $4000.

UPDATED Iran-US Special: The 4-Step Collapse of Obama's "Engagement" Into Confusion

UPDATE 7 August: Stephen Walt jumps in with this analysis....

Right now, Washington simply assumes that Iran won't negotiate unless it is coerced into doing so by outside pressure. At the same time, Tehran has made it clear that it wants to negotiate but refuses to do so under pressure. The predictable result is the current stalemate. You'd think the U.S. government could come up with something creative to try to overcome this impasse, instead of just hoping for a miracle.

UPDATE 0940 GMT: An interesting clue that, amidst the confusion, the discussion of US-Iran talks is very much alive. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has said that dialogue with Washington requires the permission of the Supreme Leader.

Iran-US Special: Obama Extends His Hand “Engagement, Not Conflict”

This time yesterday I was confidently declaring that President Obama had renewed his approach for engagement with Iran. David Ignatius of The Washington Post was putting out the message, from a specially-arranged briefing of selected journalists: "President Obama put the issue of negotiating with Iran firmly back on the table Wednesday in an unusual White House session with journalists. His message was that even as U.N. sanctions squeeze Tehran, he is leaving open a 'pathway' for a peaceful settlement of the nuclear issue."

Ignatius' narrative fit a pattern which, while interrupted by the breakdown in nuclear discussions last October between Washington, Tehran, and other countries, was far from obsolete. Noting the recent US escalation in Afghanistan and Iran's role in any attempt at a resolution, I assessed, "While the nuclear issue was the first one to be addressed --- given its symbolic position, it had to be resolved before other matters could be tackled --- engagement with Tehran would also pay dividends for US policy in the Middle East, including Iraq, and Afghanistan as well as removing a troublesome issue in relations with Russia and China."

All very logical. Yet, within 24 hours, Obama's initiative has become a tangle of conflicting reports and political counter-attacks, taking us not towards engagement but towards the challenges I identified at the end of yesterday's analysis: "The conflict inside the Administration has taken its toll...The pressure from the US Congress [and opponents outside the Congress] — as well as the war chatter — will not evaporate."

Four Steps to Collapse:

1. THE CONFUSED MESSAGE

If, as Ignatius claims, the President was re-presenting the strategy of negotiating with Iran, others in the room failed to hear this. Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic opens his account: "The session, as envisioned by his aides, was designed to convince his audience that Obama's policy of engagement joined with sanctions is having the desired effect of isolating Iran from the international community even as the country's pursuit of a bomb has not abated."

So pressure, pressure, and only pressure, as Ambinder features Administration optimism that Russia is now on Washington's side. There is not a single word in his report about negotiations.

Robert Kagan recounts, "[Obama] did make clear that the door was, of course, open to the Iranians to change their minds, that sanctions did not preclude diplomacy and engagement, and that if the Iranians ever decide they wanted to 'behave responsibly' by complying with the demands of the international community, then the United States was prepared to welcome them." This, however, is only an annex to the Pressure message: "The 'news' out of this briefing was that the administration wanted everyone to know how tough it was being on Iran."

Peter David of The Economist has perhaps the fullest account of the discussion. Like Ambinder and Kagan, he notes the Administration line that sanctions are pinching Tehran. His presentation on negotiations is not that Obama advocated them but that he pointed to the possibility:

it was important to set out for the Iranians a clear set of steps that America would accept as proof that the regime was not pursuing a bomb: they needed "a pathway". With hard work, America and Iran could thaw a 30-year period of antagonism—provided Iran began to act responsibly.

Mr Obama said that the United States had received no direct contacts from Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, though high-level officials in Iran had investigated the possibility of re-engaging with the P5-plus-one (the permanent members of
the Security Council plus Germany). America would be willing to talk bilaterally to Iran "in the context" of a P5 process that was moving forward. There should meanwhile be a "separate track" on which America could co-operate with Iran on other issues, such as Afghanistan and drugs, for example.

2. THE ANTI-ENGAGEMENT COUNTER-ATTACK

Ambinder and David have not been amongst those beating the drum for confrontation with Tehran and, while Kagan has been a staunch advocate of an aggressive US foreign policy, including the 2003 Iraq war, he has been supportive of Obama's approach on sanctions.

For another journalist at the meeting, however, the agenda was how to stoke the fire of a showdown with Iran. Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic omitted any reference to negotiations, whether Obama advocated them or merely saw the possibility of discussions. Instead, he fit the confusion of journalists' accounts into this pre-determined conclusion:

I am skeptical, though, about the possibilities of a diplomatic breakthrough, for two reasons, one structural, and one related to the state of Iran's opposition: The structural reason is simple; one of the pillars of Islamic Republic theology is anti-Americanism, and it would take an ideological earthquake to upend that pillar. And then there's the problem of the Green Movement. If the Iranian opposition were vibrant and strong, the regime might have good reason to be sensitive to the economic impact of the new sanctions package. But the opposition is weak and divided. The regime has shown itself to be fully capable of suppressing dissent through terror. So I'm not sure how much pressure the regime feels to negotiate with the West.

This is more than enough ammunition for those wanting to shoot down engagement. Max Boot soon wrote for Commentary: "What’s scary is that the illusions about 'outreach' in the upper reaches of this administration have still not been dispelled, despite a year and a half of experience (to say nothing of the previous 30 years of experience), which would suggest that the mullahs aren’t misunderstood moderates who are committed to “peaceful co-existence.”

3. THE FACTIONS INSIDE THE ADMINISTRATION

So what exactly did happen in the Obama briefing to scramble his message? Different journalists, from their own positions or just human nature, will hear --- and even try to produce --- different messages. Kagan, without naming Ignatius, writes:

Some of the journalists present, upon hearing the president's last point about the door still being open to Iran, decided that he was signaling a brand-new diplomatic initiative. They started peppering Obama with questions to ferret out exactly what 'new' diplomatic actions he was talking about.

There's an even more important factor here, however, one that Kagan points to --- but does not fully appreciate, at least in his column --- in his next sentences:

After the president left, they continued probing the senior officials. This put the officials in an awkward position: They didn't want to say flat out that the administration was not pursuing a new diplomatic initiative because this might suggest that the administration was not interested in diplomacy at all. But they made perfectly clear -- in a half-dozen artful formulations -- that, no, there was no new diplomatic initiative in the offing.

As one bemused senior official later remarked to me, if the point of the briefing had been diplomacy, then the administration would have brought its top negotiators to the meeting, instead of all the people in charge of putting the squeeze on Iran.

Kagan's point is incomplete. The Obama Administration has been split, perhaps since it came into office, between a faction who want genuine discussions with Iran and one that only thinks of discussions as the set-up, once there is an Iranian "rejection", for tougher economic and diplomatic measures.

So those who are on the "positive" side for discussions give their perspective to Ignatius --- thus the important reference to the US involvement as Afghanistan (which is not any other account of Obama's remarks) as a factor, if not a necessity, for conversations with Iran --- and those on the "negative" side become the "bemused senior official" in Kagan's article.

Joe Klein of Time, who was also present, captures the confusion: "This was a pretty strange meeting. The President's comments were on the record; his team's comments were on background, meaning that the individuals speaking could only be identified as 'senior Administration officials'."

And that's not all. For the spinning of the story was also going on beyond Obama's briefing. As I noted yesterday in the anlaysis, one or more unnamed officials sought out George Jahn of the Associated Press, leaking two letters (or selected extracts from the letters) from Iran to the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency. The intent --- supported by Jahn's presentation and failure to put quotes into context, let alone present the letters --- was to rule out any possibility of productive dialogue: "Letters by Tehran’s envoys to top international officials and shared with The Associated Press suggest major progress is unlikely, with Tehran combative and unlikely to offer any concessions."

Such manoeuvres  in turn prop up critics of engagement like Ed Morrissey as they put out the gospel: "Time is running out on stopping the mullahs from their doomsday pursuit, and open hands to the regime have hardly been effective over the last several years, including the last eighteen months.  Either we need to get serious about other options or concede that we’re not serious at all."

4. CAN OBAMA RESCUE HIS ENGAGEMENT?

There's even a black-comedy irony in this story. Flynt Leverett, one of the foremost advocates of a US engagement with Iran for a "grand bargain" on bilateral and regional matters, joins others in dismissing the possibility of productive discussions, not because the Administration is too "soft" (as Goldberg and Boot argue) but because of "the Administration’s maladroit handling of its diplomatic exchanges with Tehran, poor grasp of on-the-ground realities in Iran, and mixed messaging....The President feels he must call in Western journalists to signal Tehran is a sad commentary on the Obama Administration’s failure to develop a discreet and reliable channel through which to communicate with Iranian leaders."

I suspect Leverett, because of his entrenched dislike of US foreign policy, goes a bit far with his unsupported assertion of the "failure to develop a discreet and reliable channel". I'm more than a few miles away from Washington, so I can't prove that the channel is operating, but last year's history is instructive. Between July 2009, when the Administration seized on the possibility of a deal in which Iran's uranium would be enriched in a country such as Russia, and October, a channel was established between Washington and Tehran. It was not direct but rather through third parties, including the International Atomic Energy Agency, European parties, and Turkey. And it led to face-to-face talks between US and Iranian representatives at Geneva in the autumn.

Even though that effort at an agreement ran adrift, the channels were not set aside. Ankara and the European Union have been used in recent weeks to pass Washington's thoughts to Tehran (and vice versa). Obama left more than a clue in his briefing: "High-level officials in Iran had investigated the possibility of re-engaging with the P5-plus-one [US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China]." Time's Klein offers further support that the process of 2009 --- contact at working levels --- is being repeated, although he fails to recognise it is two-way:

The President confirmed that "high level" Iranians have reached out to the Obama Administration over the past months, hoping to get a dialogue restarted. The President emphasized that neither the Supreme Leader nor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have attempted to contact us, and his aides later insisted that nothing concrete was in the works.

And in Tehran, once you get past President Ahmadinejad's more outlandish postures in recent weeks, he too has been putting out references to both indirect communication with the US and to direct talks in the near-future.

The problem is not that the channel for engagement does not exist; it is the interference that distorts and even scrambles it. The President and his advisors are putting out signals , not just to Tehran but to the US Congress, to their anti-engagement critics, to Israel, and to other countries. No surprise that those signals often clash, especially when the Obama Administration has the faction within that does not even believe in engagement.

Last November, I fretted, "The US President [may] be back in the cul-de-sac: pressed by some advisors and a lot of Congressmen to pursue sanctions which offer no remedy for — and no exit from — the political dilemma of his failed engagement."

This week, with those sanctions now reality, Obama tried to get out of the cul-de-sac with his high-profile briefing. Initially I thought he had a chance; 24 hours later, I am thinking that his effort --- at least in the context of domestic politics --- never made it around the corner.