US Politics: Can Obama and the Democrats Retain Control of Congress? (Haddigan)

EA's US Politics correspondent Lee Haddigan writes:

With latest figures suggesting that the American economy is still performing poorly and a continuing restlessness in the progressive Left over health care reform, the prospects for the Democrat Party in November look bleak.

Incumbent administrations almost always suffer badly at the mid-term polls, but President Obama is facing a particularly mammoth struggle to retain control of Congress --- the upper body of the Senate and the lower body of the House of Representatives --- in his election cycle. Faced with a resurgent conservative opposition and a general dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and health care, the President needs an issue to recapture the enthusiasm of apathetic Democrat voters.

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Failing an astounding change in economic fortunes in the economy, it is a near-certainty that the administration will turn to blaming the Bush years for the current troubles, as well as bringing out the old Democrat bugbear of big-business funding Republican causes. In these Congressional elections, an estimated $153 million will be spent on campaigns, nearly double the $77 million spent in 2006.

Last week the Labor Department announced an unexpected rise of 500,000 in the number of jobless claims, a figurethat that prompted John Boehner, the Minority Leader in the House of Representative, to call for the firing of President Obama’s top two economic aides. This week it was revealed that new home purchases in June were at their lowest level since collection of the data began in 1963. With weak consumer confidence and nervous investors, the state of the economy has led to warnings that the United States may suffer a double-dip recession: Mark Zandi, the economist who helped the administration determine the extent of its stimulus package, recently raised his evaluation of the chances of a renewed recession from 20% to 33%. The long-term odds may still be in President Obama’s favour, but the reality is that he will not be able to point to the success of his economic spending package come November.

Nor will President Obama be able to promote the first two years of his Presidency as a victory for health care reform without alienating the left wing of his party. Despite the historic achievement of passing an act that revolutionises the provision of patient care, progressives are infuriated at the omission of a public option, and some Democrats are rebelling against the administration’s portrayal of the Affordable Care And Patient Protection Act as the best result that could be achieved.

Recently, 128 Democrats co-sponsored a bill to amend the health care law to include a public option (government-run insurance provision) from 2014. Initially confident that the public would hail the economic benefits of reform, including the reduction of the Federal deficit, health care advocacy groups who helped President Obama garner enough votes to pass the act are now stressing that it can be improved with the inclusion of a public option. The bill is highly unlikely to pass, but it sends a clear message to the administration that come January, if the Democrats manage to retain control of Congress, the public option will be back on the agenda.

Two weeks ago Robert Gibbs, Obama’s press secretary, spoke to The Hill, a Washington-based website covering Congressional politics: the “lack of appreciation or recognition for what Obama has accomplished has left Gibbs and others in furious disbelief". Top analyst Larry Berman said Gibbs' outburst “reflects the fact that the conservative opposition has been so effective at undermining the president’s popular approval.”

Meanwhile, the President was unveiling another tactic in the election strategy. At the end of July, he urged passage of the DISCLOSE Act for campaign finance reform. On 9 August, at a Texas fundraising dinner for the Democratic National Committee, he went further, as he claimed that failure to pass the Act was allowing groups like Americans for Prosperity to run attack ads against Democrat candidates, with no indication of who was funding the assault. He warned that “harmless-sounding” organizations like the AFP were able to influence the forthcoming elections because of Republican obstructionism in Congress, asserting, “We’ve got to make sure that we don't have a corporate takeover of our democracy.” The President returned to the theme last Saturday in his Weekly Address, titled unsubtly, "No Corporate Takeover of Our Democracy."

All three of these speeches attacked the pernicious influence of special interest groups on elections, indicating President Obama is going to use campaign reform as an important issue in the run-up to November. Two of the statements refer to Theodore Roosevelt, the "grandaddy" of progressive politics, and his warning 100 years ago of corporations as “one of the principal sources of corruption in our political affairs”. Obama called for a bi-partisan solution in Congress, i.e., the DISCLOSE Act, and a return to “a democracy that works for ordinary Americans --- a government of, by, and for the people”.

There is a long way, in political terms, before the elections, but it is already apparent that it would be suicide for Democrats to stand solely on their record on the economy and health care reform . To retain control of Congress, President Obama will need to give voters a reason to distinguish between the politics he represents and that of the Republicans/Tea Party. He will draw on the residual contempt among Democrats for all that President Bush stood for and the campaign finance issue. Obama’s "politics of hope" of 2008 have become the "politics of fear".

Still, there are reasons for Democrats to be optimistic they can perform better in the elections than current poll indicate: the tendency of grassroots conservative movements like the Tea Party to implode, the ability of President Obama to convince voters to turn out for him, a significant advantage in cash, and the possibility that the unknown variable of state and local concerns may help Democrat candidates.

To make a foolhardy prediction, as the race just begins in earnest, I believe that the Democrats --- in what looksto be an ill-mannered campaign --- will surprise many in November and narrowly retain both the House and the Senate. The present administration, and its supporters, are not yet "tired" enough of their policies to relinquish control of Congress so easily.

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Returning to the Streets?

1800 GMT: Economy Watch. Kalemeh reports that the unemployment rate has risen across Iran by 3.5% since last spring. In 26 of the country's provinces, the average is now 14.6%.

1745 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Labour activist Pedram Nasrollahi has been sentenced to four months in prison for “acting against national security” and “propaganda against the system by joining the women’s council”.

Kurdish painter Mokhtar Houshmand, the secretary of the Marivan Society of Visual Arts, remains in prison after his detention order was renewed for a month. His family has reportedly been denied a meeting or talking with him on the phone. The family has also been prohibited from talking to the media.

1735 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Kalemeh reports that five political prisoners who recently ended a hunger strike were threatened by the director of Evin Prison to six months in solitary confinement. Those warned were journalists Ali Malihi, Bahman Ahmadi Amouie, Keyvan Samimi, and Kouhyar Goudarzi and Ashura protester Gholamhossein Arashi. 4 of them are journos, Arashi is a Ashura protester, severely beaten in prison.

1725 GMT: Spinning Bushehr. Washington has tried to convert the news that Russia will supply the fuel needed to make Iran's nuclear plant at Bushehr operational --- finally, after repeated delays --- into a case that Tehran does not need to carry out its own uranium enrichment.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said, "Russia is providing the fuel, and taking the fuel back out....(This) underscores that Iran does not need its own enrichment capability if its intentions, as it states, are for a peaceful nuclear program."

1510 GMT: The President's Right-Hand Man (cont.). How significant is the movement against Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai? An EA correspondent summarises:

*Javan News --- connected with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps --- now quotes Hassan Firouzabadi, chief of the General Staff, Habibullah Asgarowladi, secretary of the "conservative" Front of the Followers of the Path of the Imam, Ayatollah Kaabi, a member of the Association of Teachers and Researchers of Qom, and Hojatoleslam Moe'tamed as condemning Rahim-Mashai's statements about "the school of Iran," which they call "nationalist" and a threat to the international and Islamist character of the Islamic Republic.

*Jomhouriye Eslami writes in an editorial that "support of higher authorities [Ahmadinejad] for Rahim-Mashai makes the situation worse".

*Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi: "Once more Mr. Mashaei has involved himself in discussions not worthy of him and has made wrong and unsuitable statements....It is not to the benefit of the regime, the office of the Presidency and the person of the President --- who has always been in the line of the leader and a supporter of religious foundations --- that his chief-of-staff engages in expert discussions about issues about which he is ignorant and harms his own dignity and those related to him even more."

*Alef News accuses Rahim-Mashai of "eclecticism" and condemns his statements about "human beings having the capacity to become God".

* MP Ali-Reza Zakani warns of a "new discord", likening Mashaei's statements with statements of former Prime Minister Mehdi Bazargan "who confessed that his conflict with His Holiness the Imam [Khomeini] was that we want Islam for Iran, but the Imam wants Iran for Islam".

1420 GMT: Shutting Down Green Media. A week after it was launched, the website of the new Green channel, Rasa TV, has been filtered by the Ministry of Intelligence.

1410 GMT: Challenges to the President (cont.): MP Ahmad Tavakkoli has criticised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for disregarding the laws ratified by the Parliament and the Expediency Council.

Tavakkoli accused the president of intransigence, and said, “I am sorry that the president values his personal interpretation too much.”

MP Parviz Sorouri also criticized the President, “Any law that is ratified should be implemented. The president is not in a position to say whether a particular law is correct or not."

1230 GMT: But Those Other Friday Prayers Might Be A Problem....

Away from Ayatollah Jannati's Tehran Friday Prayer, trying to deflect attention from problems for the regime, other sermons point to, well, problems for the regime.

In Qom, Mohammad Saeedi indirectly criticised the President while bolstering Ayatollah Khamenei, saying someone who manages the country has to follow the Supreme Leader as the representative of Prophets. Saeedi declared everyone has to abide to the laws ratified by Parliament and approved by the Guardian Council.

Elsewhere, alongside condemnation of US sanctions and praise of Lebanon's Sayyed Hassan Nasrullah for his stand against Israel, there were attacks on the President because of his aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai's "Iran principle", placing Tehran as a source of emulation ahead of Islam. In Mashhad, Ahmad Alamolhoda said any ruling against the Supreme Leader is obsolete. In Kashan, Abdolnabi Namazi directly said Rahim-Mashai's presence disturbed the Iranian clerics and people.

1200 GMT: International Front. Not sure what to make of this....

Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Commission, claims that the Vienna group (US, France, Russia, International Atomic Energy Agency) has accepted the Iran-Brazil-Turkey statement on uranium enrichment, so there is no necessity for Brasilia and Ankara to join talks with the "5+1" powers of the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany.

1155 GMT: Put-Down of the Day? Khabar Online claims a large banner with President Ahmadinejad's picture was removed from the Qur'an exhibition at Tehran's Grand Mossalla.

1145 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Alireza Mir-Mohammad Sadeghi, the deputy to Minister of Oil Mirkazemi --- a target of Khabar Online for "wrong policies: --- has allegedly said that 12,000 oil managers are on the verge of retirement.

1045 GMT: Getting Jannati's Line Right. Press TV gives the proper spin to Friday's Friday Prayer by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, after recent difficulties over his speeches. Jannati, without re-stating the "$51 billion" coup allegation, warned against the discussions with the US:

You have forgotten what they (Americans) have done, you think they have changed…. They are the same….When they flash a green light it is [always] chicanery and a scam.

Jannati continued:

They think the Iranian people will give in under sanctions and adversities.…but the West's problem is that they do not know the Iranian nation and do not know who they are dealing with.

1025 GMT: The President's Right-Hand Man. The conservative Resalat devotes its main article to the "unacceptable statements" of Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

The newspaper says the comments provide a welcome excuse for conservatives to attack the Government and demands, "Mr Ahmadinejad, let the passengers without a ticket get off the (Government) train!"

Key MP and Government critic Ali Motahari goes farther and harsher, claiming that the thinking of the President and his followers about Islam is like the Forghan group who killed his father, Ayatollah Motahari, in 1979.

Motahari alleged that Ahmadinejad's and Rahim-Mashai's ideas do not comply with Islam. According to the MP, the President is neither a conservative nor a reformist, but because he is supported by the Supreme Leader, other clerics support him as well.

The Motahari's call for resistance: a MP must decide by himself, not according to the Supreme Leader's opinion. He strengthens the demand with the regret that MPs should have protested clearly against the Kahrizak abuse and the allegation that Ahmadinejad's refusal to implement laws is a sign of dictatorship.

1015 GMT: Three Islamic Revolution Guards Corps soldiers have been killed in clashes with members of the Kurdish separatist group PJAK.

1000 GMT: More on the "Jannati Line". Alongside Ayatollah Jannati's appearance at Friday Prayers, there is support for him from Esmail Kowsari, deputy head of the National Security Council, who claims the Majlis was informed about the documents for Jannati's claim of the $51 billion US-Saudi-opposition coup plan. Kowsari says the proof is in the Ministry of Intelligence.

MP Zohreh Elahian, a member of Parliament's National Security Commission, claims the documents will be given to prosecutors.

0915 GMT: Challenging Ahmadinejad. Khabar Online devotes its "headline" news to an analysis by Professor Pirouz Mojtahedzadeh, who criticises the President's foreign policy.

Mojtahedzadeh claims Iran's "turn to the East" led to damage to its nuclear energy programme, as Russia delayed completion of the Bushehr reactor, and to a quadrupline of imports from China.

(Last night, Voice of America claimed the cost to Iran of the Bushehr reactor was now close to $1 billion.)

The professor adds a significant comparison: during the Presidency of Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-1997), the east-bound policy was advisable, but it has now led Iran "to this mess". Instead of battling with one set of foreign powers (US, Europen Union) and making advances to another (Russia, China), Tehran should follow a balanced policy towards all.

0455 GMT: Execution (Ashtiani) Watch. Human Rights Watch has condemned the treatment of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death for adultery and presented on national TV on Wednesday with her "confession".

HRW women's rights researcher Nadya Khalife said, “The men who run Iran apparently have no shame at all, first pronouncing the barbaric sentence of death by stoning and then resorting to a televised confession. Under the circumstances there is every reason to believe that this so-called confession was coerced."

0430 GMT: We begin this morning with a look to the future, provided by an EA correspondent:

Roughly 3 weeks to Qods Day and a lot of chatter, whether Mousavi and Karroubi will invite the people to protests.

Another idea is going to the streets on the 27th of every month in accordance with Article 27 of the Constitution, assuring freedom of assembly.

Qods (Jerusalem) Day is the annual commemoration of Palestine. Last September, opposition supporters used the occasion to press their demands publicly in one of the largest post-election rallies.

Meanwhile....

47 Baha’is Currently In Prison
Following the recnet sentencing of seven Baha’i leaders in Iran to 20 years in prison each, Diane Ala’i, the representative of the Baha’i International Community has said that there are currently 47 members of the Baha’i Faith are inside Iranian prisons.

According to Ala’i, the Baha’is are not facing charges of mohareb (enmity with God), which carry the death penalty. They are accused of “acting against national security”, “participating in illegal groups", and “propagating the Baha’i Faith”.

Ala'i added that the seven leaders have been moved from Evin Prison to Rajai Shahr Prison in Gohardasht, Karaj. Families have been able to visit the prisoners once every two weeks for 10 minutes. They are allowed to see male relatives one week and female relatives the next, so the entire family cannot meet at the same time.

Ala'I said the verdicts for the seven Baha’i leaders have not yet been served in writing.

Cyber-Challenge

The Persian 30mail site, which features news roundups, has launched a competition for IT specialists to write a programme feeding news from Green sites to e-mail accounts and mobiles in Iran. Programmers selected in the first round receive $1000, and the finalist wins another $4000.

The Latest from Iran (3 August): Explosive Words

2000 GMT: Defense Watch. The Ministers of Defense of Iran and Oman have agreed to "secure the Straits of Hormuz".

1950 GMT: Conspiracy Theory of the Day. Qassem Ravanbaksh, editor of Parto-ye Sokhan (linked to Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi), has declared that former President Mohammad Khatami visited Saudi Arabia before the June 2009 election to get money.

More tangibly, Khatami has been fined $300 over an unspecified speech because of a complaint by Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1945 GMT: Basij Disruption. Basiji paramilitaries have disrupted a memorial service for former member of Parliament, Ismail Tatari, at a Kermanshah mosque because they thought Mehdi Karroubi might be present.

1905 GMT: Taking On the President. Leading MP Darius Ghanbari has joined the criticism of President Ahmadinejad, from across the political spectrum (see 1700), for the conference of the Iranian diaspora. Ghanbari also charged the Government with the wrong strategy as it "chased" elite Iranian and foreign investors.

1900 GMT: Meeting Mousavi. A group of Iranian journalists have posted a report on Rah-e-Sabz of a discussion with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard.

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The Latest from Iran (2 August): The Campaign Against Jannati

1853 GMT: No Debate. In the least surprising news of the day, the Obama Administration has rejected President Ahmadinejad's call for a public discussion with Barack Obama at the UN General Assembly in September. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said, "We have always said that we'd be willing to sit down and discuss Iran's illicit nuclear program, if Iran is serious about doing that. To date, that seriousness has not been there."

1845 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The trial of film director Jafar Panahi, arrested in March for criticism of the regime, has been postponed to late September because the judge and prosecutor did not appear in court yesterday.

1840 GMT: Sanctions Watch. As EA readers have already noted, the US has formally imposed sanctions on 21 firms it claims are front companies for the Iranian Government.

The claimed fronts included two Belarus-based banks, two Germany-based investment firms, and mining and engineering companies in Japan, Germany, Luxembourg, Italy, and Iran.

The news has been noticed inside Iran, with Press TV headlining the development.

1700 GMT: The Battle Within. Alef has asked the President to "please observe national dignity", criticising Ahmadinejad's "strange" challenge to Barack Obama to a debate in the US.

1539 GMT: Viewing Iran. Our colleague Lara Setrakian of ABC News has launched a new site, The MidEast Memo. Included in its opening entries are a look at the case of the three Americans still detained a year after hiking into Iranian territory and a review of sanctions and Iran's attempts to get around them.

1535 GMT: Economy Watch. Fereydoun Khavand, an economist at the University of Paris, claims in an interview that Iran's unemployment rate is at its highest point in six years.

1530 GMT: So You Want a Debate, Mahmoud? An interesting twist in the story of President Ahmadinejad's call on President Obama to hold a public discussion with him in the US....

Five imprisoned journalists, including Isa Saharkhiz, Masoud Bastani, and Mahdi Mahmoudian, have challenged Ahmadinejad to debate them publicly about his Government's performance.

1315 GMT: Ahmadinejad Today. Another speech by the President, this one to Iran's conference on international media: no apparent talk of Zionist assassination plots but lots of condemnation of the United Nations' "anti-Iran" position. Ahmadinejad referring back to the 1980s, said that "certain people who forced Imam Khomeini to 'drink poison'" and accept the UN resolution ending Iran-Iraq war are still active.

The President also gave his audience an intense rhetorical assault upon the Western media.

1255 GMT: Political Prisioner Watch. The death sentence of Mohammad Ali Haj Aghaei, arrested in post-election protests, has been upheld. According to the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, the appellate court did not hold a hearing and confirmed the sentence verbatim.

0950 GMT: International Front. Looks like Iran is to going to skip diplomacy --- a move to talks on uranium enrichment with Washington, as well as other countries --- for grandstanding. The Foreign Ministry has followed President Ahmadinejad's call-out of his American colleague for a public discussion: "If US President Barack Obama expresses his readiness, the UN General Assembly [meeting in September] would be a good opportunity for face-to-face transparent talks.”

0920 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Josh Shahryar, "Saharkhiz & Abtahi Dent the Government’s 'Fear Factor'."

0825 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Next Fatwa. His "I am the Rule of the Prophet" declaration may still be disputed, but Ayatollah Khamenei has reportedly moved to his next topic: the danger of music.

On the same day that Iran's legendary singer Mohammad Nouri was buried, Khamenei supposedly replied to a follower: "Although music is halal, promoting and teaching it is not compatible with the highest values of the sacred regime of the Islamic Republic."

Fars said the fatwa was given to a 21-year-old follower who was thinking of starting music lessons. Khamenei answered, "It's better that our dear youth spend their valuable time in learning science and essential and useful skills and fill their time with sport and healthy recreations instead of music."

We are checking if the fatwa is on Khamenei's official website.

0815 GMT: Do You See a Theme Here? Four of Press TV's last eight stories: "Iran trivializes US war threat"; "Iran rejects reports of US war threat"; (my favourite) "Iran prepares 'enemy-crushing' plans"; "Iran warns Israel against new ME war".

0805 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Statement (A Reaction). Despite the rather limited nature of the Mousavi-Karroubi declaration on the way forward, EA's Ms Zahra is hopeful: "I have the impression that Moussavi is slowly passing over his red lines, his latest statement reads rather democratic, although recurring to religious expressions like a 'Pharaonic' regime."

Ms Zahra also notes former President Mohammad Khatami's most recent speech with its emphasis on the experience of Iran's Constitutional Revolution as a "democratic revolution".

0800 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Statement. Radio Zamaneh summarises yesterday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, headlining criticism of both the Iranian Government and the international pressure on Tehran.

Indeed, Mousavi and Karroubi linked the two, stating, "Uncalculated remarks and decisions of the government have humiliated Iran and led to multilateral sanctions and threats”. They added that the Government was lying about the economic situation, as the sanctions “burden workers, farmers and the impoverished strata of the society, and they could lead to inflation, economic decline and rise in unemployment.”

Mousavi also urged the judiciary to deal with "disturbing news" on political prisoners, and both men said government plans to establish 7000 Basij paramilitary bases across Iran show how the Basij hasbeen transformed into “a military-political party to oppress people, students, dervishes and their civic demands and also to engineer the elections".

Mousavi and Karroubi urged Iranians to “establish social networks to produce truthful content and statistics regarding the situation of the country.”

0740 GMT: Propaganda and "Sedition". Gozaar has a lengthy analysis, with background from the 1990s, of the campaign of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting against Iranian intellectuals and activists through the series Fitna.

0725 GMT: We open this morning with a separate feature on the reported statement of the President's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad indicated last year that Iran is approaching capability for a nuclear weapon.

That is not the only explosive --- sorry for the pun --- declaration coming out of Iran, however. There was a flurry of non-military activity on Monday pointing to further conflict, from the opposition's challenge to the head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Jannati, to the revelation of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi of last summer's Tehran "show trial" to criticism of the President from his "conservative" adversaries in Parliament. There was a legal twist, with Ahmadinejad apparently filing a lawsuit against one of his Parliamentary nemeses, Ali Motahari.

Even the attempted deflections from these conflicts merely added a layer of political humour. The Government's attempt to showcase its support from Iranians abroad, through a gathering of 1300 of them in Tehran, was hindered by "hard-line" criticism that the exercise was a waste of money and even included a "CIA associate".

And Ahmadinejad's speech to the conference moved from the significant --- an indication that Iran was ready for direct talks with Washington --- to the diversionary, with his declaration of readiness to speak publicly ("debate") with President Obama in the US in September and his claim that Zionists were trying to assassinate him.