UPDATED Iran Special: Grenade Attack on Ahmadinejad?

UPDATE 5 August: President Ahmadinejad has put out the official line for the Islamic Republic News Agency: "Yesterday, during the cabinet's trip to Hamadan Province, someone threw a firecracker in front of the government motorcade out of joy and excitement. This was not [a] newsworthy [incident], but the enemies spread reports that Ahmadinejad has been transferred to an undisclosed location after surviving an assassination attempt. This is while immediately afterwards I delivered a speech in Hamadan Stadium and in front of thousands of people.”

[Editor's Note: No one to my knowledge ever stated "Ahmadinejad has been transferred to an undisclosed location".]

A stranger declaration from Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi with the "good news" from the incident, "We discovered Israel's sedition in the region," as well as discovering 8,800 antiquities from smugglers.

UPDATE 2000 GMT: Summary of the Day. Islamic Republic News Agency, late to the story of the "greeting" of the President, made up for it with this explanation: "A young boy threw a firecracker at motorcade of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to celebrate his arrival in Hamadan causing embarrassment....Iranian youth during special ceremonies such as New Year festivals or football matches use firecrackers as sign of jubilation."

How can you top that coverage? Possibly by taking it to the international front. From Andy Borowitz:



(Hat tip to Robert Mackey at The Lede)

UPDATE 1655 GMT: Let's Try This Version. And here comes yet another narrative of What Really Happened....

Mehr News (also quoted in Aftab News) says a handmade bomb exploded in Hamedan's Pasteur Street, at a long distance from AN's car, as people were greeting him. No one was injured and there was only smoke from the device. Some suspects were arrested.

UPDATE 1640 GMT: Lara Setrakian of ABC News has just put out a round-up on the grenade/firecracker assassination/celebration incident. I spoke with her throughout the day to try and interpret developments, and she has kindly put out my initial thoughts, which are on the lines of "the significance here is not the physical attack, if that is what this was, but the political aftermath":

Khabar [Online, which broke the story in Iran and is connected with Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani] has been increasingly critical of the government over the past few months. They're more likely to put the incident out than state media.

An attack certainly could be connected to the post-election tension. It could have important political significance given the divisions within the ruling establishment. And in the public eye it makes Ahmedinejad look weak.

UPDATE 1630 GMT: Grenade or Firecracker? An EA correspondent joins the debate, responding to Mr Verde's assessment (1330 GMT) over what happened in Hamedan and what Iran's official media reported:

I think that "narenjak" is best translated, as Associated Press and others did, as grenade. There has been a concerted effort to remove the term from all news items [in Iranian media], Fars being forced to change it from "narenjak" to "tarraqeh", which is the common term for firecracker. So while Verde is correct in stating that narenjak can also mean firecracker, the actual meaning from this morning has been grenade, which is why the state media are so keen on getting rid of it everywhere.

UPDATE 1330 GMT: Khabar Online, which was the first outlet inside Iran to report the explosion, is pulling back on its original claim of a "grenade". Khabar now defers to the statement of the President's office, given to Agence France Presse (see 1024 GMT), that the cause was a firecracker of welcome.

(Mr Verde adds this: The original Khabar item talked about the explosion of “nirenjak-e dasti”, which could mean two things: A) either a “hand grenade” or B) a form of homemade firecracker common in Iran, called "narenjak" --- which in English could mean grenade--- that is thrown against hard surfaces to make a lot of noise during festivals like Chaharshanbeh Souri.)

UPDATE 1140 GMT: An EA correspondent checks in: "Good old Mahmoud isn't having a good day. Youtube footage from today's speech in Hamadan shows him saying that 'England is an island from West Africa'."

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDaYAuusXGc[/youtube]

UPDATE 1024 GMT: The regime line is now set. Iranian state outlet Al-Alam, like Fars, is saying that the explosion was actually a firecracker as part of celebrations over the President's arrival, and Ahmadinejad's staff are putting out that story to foreign media such as Agence France Presse.

The problem for this narrative is that the President's office initially told two outlets --- Al-Arabiya and Reuters --- that the incident was an "attack".

 

UPDATE 1015 GMT: Fars News has now recognised the incident, albeit as the explosion of a "homemade firecracker" as crowds welcomed Ahmaidinejad.

UPDATE 0925 GMT: Press TV has broken its silence: "An informed source in Iran's presidential office has rejected as false the reports of grenade attack on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad", denying the claims of "foreign news sources". (There is no reference to Khabar Online, which has carried the story in Iran. The reformist Parleman News is also running Khabar's account, as is the conservative Aftab News.)

Al Arabiya's initial report had claimed "the Iranian Presidency confirmed the attack".

UPDATE 0910 GMT: Al Arabiya television is calling the incident a "bomb" and an "assassination attempt", injuring a number of people. It claims "the Iranian presidency confirmed the attack".

According to Al Arabiya, the explosion hit a car carrying journalists and presidential staff before Ahmadinejad addressed a crowd (which makes Iran state media reports on the speech, with no mention of the attack, even more curious), and the assailant was arrested on the spot.

 

Ahmadinejad appeared on live Iranian television at a sports stadium. He made no mention of any attack.

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Khabar Online is reporting that a grenade exploded near Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's motorcade as the President visited Hamedan in western Iran, 250 miles southwest of Tehran. The explosion occurred between the airport and the site of the President's speech, although it is unclear if the incident occurred before or after the appearance

There are no reports of casualties.

Press TV has referred to Ahmadinejad's speech but has not mentioned the explosion. IRNA is summarising the presentation --- "Iran will not fall prey to the poison of hypocrites" --- but also has no reference to an attack.

The Latest from Iran (3 August): Explosive Words

2000 GMT: Defense Watch. The Ministers of Defense of Iran and Oman have agreed to "secure the Straits of Hormuz".

1950 GMT: Conspiracy Theory of the Day. Qassem Ravanbaksh, editor of Parto-ye Sokhan (linked to Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi), has declared that former President Mohammad Khatami visited Saudi Arabia before the June 2009 election to get money.

More tangibly, Khatami has been fined $300 over an unspecified speech because of a complaint by Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

1945 GMT: Basij Disruption. Basiji paramilitaries have disrupted a memorial service for former member of Parliament, Ismail Tatari, at a Kermanshah mosque because they thought Mehdi Karroubi might be present.

1905 GMT: Taking On the President. Leading MP Darius Ghanbari has joined the criticism of President Ahmadinejad, from across the political spectrum (see 1700), for the conference of the Iranian diaspora. Ghanbari also charged the Government with the wrong strategy as it "chased" elite Iranian and foreign investors.

1900 GMT: Meeting Mousavi. A group of Iranian journalists have posted a report on Rah-e-Sabz of a discussion with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard.

NEW Iran Analysis: Saharkhiz & Abtahi Dent the Government’s “Fear Factor” (Shahryar)
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Iran Analysis: Hyping the War Chatter — US Military Chief Mike Mullen Speaks
The Latest from Iran (2 August): The Campaign Against Jannati

1853 GMT: No Debate. In the least surprising news of the day, the Obama Administration has rejected President Ahmadinejad's call for a public discussion with Barack Obama at the UN General Assembly in September. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said, "We have always said that we'd be willing to sit down and discuss Iran's illicit nuclear program, if Iran is serious about doing that. To date, that seriousness has not been there."

1845 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The trial of film director Jafar Panahi, arrested in March for criticism of the regime, has been postponed to late September because the judge and prosecutor did not appear in court yesterday.

1840 GMT: Sanctions Watch. As EA readers have already noted, the US has formally imposed sanctions on 21 firms it claims are front companies for the Iranian Government.

The claimed fronts included two Belarus-based banks, two Germany-based investment firms, and mining and engineering companies in Japan, Germany, Luxembourg, Italy, and Iran.

The news has been noticed inside Iran, with Press TV headlining the development.

1700 GMT: The Battle Within. Alef has asked the President to "please observe national dignity", criticising Ahmadinejad's "strange" challenge to Barack Obama to a debate in the US.

1539 GMT: Viewing Iran. Our colleague Lara Setrakian of ABC News has launched a new site, The MidEast Memo. Included in its opening entries are a look at the case of the three Americans still detained a year after hiking into Iranian territory and a review of sanctions and Iran's attempts to get around them.

1535 GMT: Economy Watch. Fereydoun Khavand, an economist at the University of Paris, claims in an interview that Iran's unemployment rate is at its highest point in six years.

1530 GMT: So You Want a Debate, Mahmoud? An interesting twist in the story of President Ahmadinejad's call on President Obama to hold a public discussion with him in the US....

Five imprisoned journalists, including Isa Saharkhiz, Masoud Bastani, and Mahdi Mahmoudian, have challenged Ahmadinejad to debate them publicly about his Government's performance.

1315 GMT: Ahmadinejad Today. Another speech by the President, this one to Iran's conference on international media: no apparent talk of Zionist assassination plots but lots of condemnation of the United Nations' "anti-Iran" position. Ahmadinejad referring back to the 1980s, said that "certain people who forced Imam Khomeini to 'drink poison'" and accept the UN resolution ending Iran-Iraq war are still active.

The President also gave his audience an intense rhetorical assault upon the Western media.

1255 GMT: Political Prisioner Watch. The death sentence of Mohammad Ali Haj Aghaei, arrested in post-election protests, has been upheld. According to the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, the appellate court did not hold a hearing and confirmed the sentence verbatim.

0950 GMT: International Front. Looks like Iran is to going to skip diplomacy --- a move to talks on uranium enrichment with Washington, as well as other countries --- for grandstanding. The Foreign Ministry has followed President Ahmadinejad's call-out of his American colleague for a public discussion: "If US President Barack Obama expresses his readiness, the UN General Assembly [meeting in September] would be a good opportunity for face-to-face transparent talks.”

0920 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Josh Shahryar, "Saharkhiz & Abtahi Dent the Government’s 'Fear Factor'."

0825 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Next Fatwa. His "I am the Rule of the Prophet" declaration may still be disputed, but Ayatollah Khamenei has reportedly moved to his next topic: the danger of music.

On the same day that Iran's legendary singer Mohammad Nouri was buried, Khamenei supposedly replied to a follower: "Although music is halal, promoting and teaching it is not compatible with the highest values of the sacred regime of the Islamic Republic."

Fars said the fatwa was given to a 21-year-old follower who was thinking of starting music lessons. Khamenei answered, "It's better that our dear youth spend their valuable time in learning science and essential and useful skills and fill their time with sport and healthy recreations instead of music."

We are checking if the fatwa is on Khamenei's official website.

0815 GMT: Do You See a Theme Here? Four of Press TV's last eight stories: "Iran trivializes US war threat"; "Iran rejects reports of US war threat"; (my favourite) "Iran prepares 'enemy-crushing' plans"; "Iran warns Israel against new ME war".

0805 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Statement (A Reaction). Despite the rather limited nature of the Mousavi-Karroubi declaration on the way forward, EA's Ms Zahra is hopeful: "I have the impression that Moussavi is slowly passing over his red lines, his latest statement reads rather democratic, although recurring to religious expressions like a 'Pharaonic' regime."

Ms Zahra also notes former President Mohammad Khatami's most recent speech with its emphasis on the experience of Iran's Constitutional Revolution as a "democratic revolution".

0800 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Statement. Radio Zamaneh summarises yesterday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, headlining criticism of both the Iranian Government and the international pressure on Tehran.

Indeed, Mousavi and Karroubi linked the two, stating, "Uncalculated remarks and decisions of the government have humiliated Iran and led to multilateral sanctions and threats”. They added that the Government was lying about the economic situation, as the sanctions “burden workers, farmers and the impoverished strata of the society, and they could lead to inflation, economic decline and rise in unemployment.”

Mousavi also urged the judiciary to deal with "disturbing news" on political prisoners, and both men said government plans to establish 7000 Basij paramilitary bases across Iran show how the Basij hasbeen transformed into “a military-political party to oppress people, students, dervishes and their civic demands and also to engineer the elections".

Mousavi and Karroubi urged Iranians to “establish social networks to produce truthful content and statistics regarding the situation of the country.”

0740 GMT: Propaganda and "Sedition". Gozaar has a lengthy analysis, with background from the 1990s, of the campaign of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting against Iranian intellectuals and activists through the series Fitna.

0725 GMT: We open this morning with a separate feature on the reported statement of the President's Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad indicated last year that Iran is approaching capability for a nuclear weapon.

That is not the only explosive --- sorry for the pun --- declaration coming out of Iran, however. There was a flurry of non-military activity on Monday pointing to further conflict, from the opposition's challenge to the head of the Guardian Council, Ayatollah Jannati, to the revelation of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi of last summer's Tehran "show trial" to criticism of the President from his "conservative" adversaries in Parliament. There was a legal twist, with Ahmadinejad apparently filing a lawsuit against one of his Parliamentary nemeses, Ali Motahari.

Even the attempted deflections from these conflicts merely added a layer of political humour. The Government's attempt to showcase its support from Iranians abroad, through a gathering of 1300 of them in Tehran, was hindered by "hard-line" criticism that the exercise was a waste of money and even included a "CIA associate".

And Ahmadinejad's speech to the conference moved from the significant --- an indication that Iran was ready for direct talks with Washington --- to the diversionary, with his declaration of readiness to speak publicly ("debate") with President Obama in the US in September and his claim that Zionists were trying to assassinate him.