Middle East Inside Line: "Warm" Turkish-Israeli Relations; Latest on Israel-Palestine Talks

Ankara's "Friendly Face" to Israel: Weeks after reports alleging that Ankara had been threatened by the US with a cut-off of military transfers unless ties with West Jerusalem improved, senior Turkish officials currently visiting Washington announced their commitment to preserving warm relations with Israel.

The Latest from Israel-Palestine-Washington: Haaretz reports that the Palestinian Authority submitted a paper, prepared by Israeli jurists, saying that --- contrary to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's claim --- Israel has the authority to freeze construction on private land. The PA demanded that the Obama Administration press for an extension of the freeze to East Jerusalem fr.

However, Haaretz reports,  from sources "close to the Obama Administration", that Washington will be urge Palestinians to soften their stance on Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor's proposal offering the continuation of construction in large settlement blocs but not in isolated settlements. In response to this "concession", land from Area C, which is both governed and controlled by Israel, will be transferred to Area B which is controlled by Israelis but governed by Palestinians.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who has proposed the continuation of settlement constructions in parallel with the "natural growth rate", stated on Wednesday that the de facto freeze in East Jerusalem cannot continue after 26 September:

Presently there are 1,000 housing units on the table in Ramot, another 600 housing units in neighborhoods like Gilo, east Talpiot, Har Homa and Pisgat Ze’ev. What, does someone expect that we will continue to freeze 1,600 housing units that went through all the [bureaucratic] procedures?

Pressure on Netanyahu Inside Israel: Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, Kadima Chairwoman Tzipi Livni accused Netanyahu of not being able to prevent the discrediting and delegitimising of Israel at the international level. She welcomed Netanyahu's decision to enter direct talks but warned him: "I hope the prime minister won't enter the talks as a favor to the Palestinians, or to the US, but rather that he will understand that this is in our best interest."

Ministers from the Labor Party are reportedly applying pressure on party chairman Ehud Barak to leave the coalition if Netanyahu turns toward the extreme right and clashes with Obama next month.

US Politics: Can Obama and the Democrats Retain Control of Congress? (Haddigan)

EA's US Politics correspondent Lee Haddigan writes:

With latest figures suggesting that the American economy is still performing poorly and a continuing restlessness in the progressive Left over health care reform, the prospects for the Democrat Party in November look bleak.

Incumbent administrations almost always suffer badly at the mid-term polls, but President Obama is facing a particularly mammoth struggle to retain control of Congress --- the upper body of the Senate and the lower body of the House of Representatives --- in his election cycle. Faced with a resurgent conservative opposition and a general dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and health care, the President needs an issue to recapture the enthusiasm of apathetic Democrat voters.

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Failing an astounding change in economic fortunes in the economy, it is a near-certainty that the administration will turn to blaming the Bush years for the current troubles, as well as bringing out the old Democrat bugbear of big-business funding Republican causes. In these Congressional elections, an estimated $153 million will be spent on campaigns, nearly double the $77 million spent in 2006.

Last week the Labor Department announced an unexpected rise of 500,000 in the number of jobless claims, a figurethat that prompted John Boehner, the Minority Leader in the House of Representative, to call for the firing of President Obama’s top two economic aides. This week it was revealed that new home purchases in June were at their lowest level since collection of the data began in 1963. With weak consumer confidence and nervous investors, the state of the economy has led to warnings that the United States may suffer a double-dip recession: Mark Zandi, the economist who helped the administration determine the extent of its stimulus package, recently raised his evaluation of the chances of a renewed recession from 20% to 33%. The long-term odds may still be in President Obama’s favour, but the reality is that he will not be able to point to the success of his economic spending package come November.

Nor will President Obama be able to promote the first two years of his Presidency as a victory for health care reform without alienating the left wing of his party. Despite the historic achievement of passing an act that revolutionises the provision of patient care, progressives are infuriated at the omission of a public option, and some Democrats are rebelling against the administration’s portrayal of the Affordable Care And Patient Protection Act as the best result that could be achieved.

Recently, 128 Democrats co-sponsored a bill to amend the health care law to include a public option (government-run insurance provision) from 2014. Initially confident that the public would hail the economic benefits of reform, including the reduction of the Federal deficit, health care advocacy groups who helped President Obama garner enough votes to pass the act are now stressing that it can be improved with the inclusion of a public option. The bill is highly unlikely to pass, but it sends a clear message to the administration that come January, if the Democrats manage to retain control of Congress, the public option will be back on the agenda.

Two weeks ago Robert Gibbs, Obama’s press secretary, spoke to The Hill, a Washington-based website covering Congressional politics: the “lack of appreciation or recognition for what Obama has accomplished has left Gibbs and others in furious disbelief". Top analyst Larry Berman said Gibbs' outburst “reflects the fact that the conservative opposition has been so effective at undermining the president’s popular approval.”

Meanwhile, the President was unveiling another tactic in the election strategy. At the end of July, he urged passage of the DISCLOSE Act for campaign finance reform. On 9 August, at a Texas fundraising dinner for the Democratic National Committee, he went further, as he claimed that failure to pass the Act was allowing groups like Americans for Prosperity to run attack ads against Democrat candidates, with no indication of who was funding the assault. He warned that “harmless-sounding” organizations like the AFP were able to influence the forthcoming elections because of Republican obstructionism in Congress, asserting, “We’ve got to make sure that we don't have a corporate takeover of our democracy.” The President returned to the theme last Saturday in his Weekly Address, titled unsubtly, "No Corporate Takeover of Our Democracy."

All three of these speeches attacked the pernicious influence of special interest groups on elections, indicating President Obama is going to use campaign reform as an important issue in the run-up to November. Two of the statements refer to Theodore Roosevelt, the "grandaddy" of progressive politics, and his warning 100 years ago of corporations as “one of the principal sources of corruption in our political affairs”. Obama called for a bi-partisan solution in Congress, i.e., the DISCLOSE Act, and a return to “a democracy that works for ordinary Americans --- a government of, by, and for the people”.

There is a long way, in political terms, before the elections, but it is already apparent that it would be suicide for Democrats to stand solely on their record on the economy and health care reform . To retain control of Congress, President Obama will need to give voters a reason to distinguish between the politics he represents and that of the Republicans/Tea Party. He will draw on the residual contempt among Democrats for all that President Bush stood for and the campaign finance issue. Obama’s "politics of hope" of 2008 have become the "politics of fear".

Still, there are reasons for Democrats to be optimistic they can perform better in the elections than current poll indicate: the tendency of grassroots conservative movements like the Tea Party to implode, the ability of President Obama to convince voters to turn out for him, a significant advantage in cash, and the possibility that the unknown variable of state and local concerns may help Democrat candidates.

To make a foolhardy prediction, as the race just begins in earnest, I believe that the Democrats --- in what looksto be an ill-mannered campaign --- will surprise many in November and narrowly retain both the House and the Senate. The present administration, and its supporters, are not yet "tired" enough of their policies to relinquish control of Congress so easily.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Why Did Ramallah Agree to Direct Talks? (Yenidunya)

On Friday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas will each meet with President Barack Obama on 1 September, with formal direct negotiations starting the following day. The Quartet (United Nations, United States, European Union and Russia) echoed Washington's invitation and said a deal could be reached within a year.

Netanyahu's office issued a statement, highlighting the significance of Israel's security institutions, "We are coming to the talks with a genuine desire to reach a peace agreement between the two peoples that will protect Israel's national security interests, foremost of which is security." Defense Minister Ehud Barak said both parties will be required to make "courageous decisions to reach an agreement."

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Netanyahu has got what he wanted with direct talks without preconditions, so his welcome is understandable. On the other hand, Ramallah had been showing resistance. But why the change in position? And why now?

As a non-state organisation, the Palestine Authority's capabilities and room for manoeuvre are relatively limited. It is neither sovereign nor territorially defined and its decision-making process is more fluid, given the lack of legitimate authority both in the eyes of Palestinians and Israelis. So Ramallah's resistance, in the face of Washington's sustained efforts, was curbed.

Ramallah also faced an imminent deadline, with the Israeli moratorium on settlement expansion in West Bank ending on 26 September. Any hope of an extension rested on an apparent breakthrough, otherwise the intense conservative discourse in Israel--- "Palestinians not missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity" --- would prevail. So the Palestine Authority now seeks to consolidate the demand for a moratorium, as well as an extension of the freeze to East Jerusalem, as part of the negotations. a rule of negotiations, a sine qua non necessity legitimized  in the eyes of international community.

In the end, despite the months required for the effort, Washington was able to use this leverage to get Mahmoud Abbas and his team to the table, given the limited assurances that the non-state could hope to extract. We have no idea whether President Obama threatened sanctions against the PA and/or showed a carrot, such as a pledge that he would bring forth his own map, based on pre-1967 borders, if Netanyahu did not produce one before the winter. However, what we know is that Washington successfully made Ramallah sit down. (On Saturday, the London-based al-Hayat newspaper claimed that the Obama Administration gave assurance to Abbas.)

The decision to go to Washington is strategically the least damaging option for Ramallah. Following the conditional approval of the Arab League for the talks and the international pressure, Ramallah will not be tarred --- at least in the short term --- as the party who always misses opportunities. The Palestinian Authority will try to play the card of getting assurances over Israeli settlements for the continuation of direct talks after 26 September. Less than 24 hours of the approval, the chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said:

It can be done in less than a year. The most important thing now is to see to it that the Israeli government refrains from settlement activities, incursions, fait accompli policies.

Given no clear timeframe, specific terms of reference, and a monitoring mechanism, Ramallah is already insisting on taking the Quartet inside the negotiation room.  The PA will try to further the Quartet's March statement, saying that talks should lead to a settlement, negotiated between the parties within 24 months, with an end to the occupation that began in 1967 and an independent, democratic, and viable Palestinian state living side-by-side in peace and security with Israel and its other neighbours. The statement also called for a freeze to settlements in the West Bank and an end to the annexation of East Jerusalem.

On Friday, the Quartet expressed support for the pursuit of a just, lasting and comprehensive regional peace as envisaged in the Madrid terms of reference, Security Council resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative. So far, Israelis have not responded to this statement and it is not known if and when the Obama Administration will include the Quartet in direct talks.

At the end of the day, however, given the limits of Ramallah's bargaining power, the catalyst for any advance in the talks will be the decisiveness of the Netanyahu Administration: how serious is it about reaching a deal regardless of public pressure over "non-negotiable security needs"?

The Latest from Iran (20 August): What is Going On Over Nuclear Talks?

2000 GMT: Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, and Talks with the US. Really, what is going on???

The English translation of the Ahmadinejad interview with the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun (see 1145 and 1445 GMT) --- in which the President said, "We are ready for the talks...about Iran's proposed package from around the end of August or the beginning of September" --- makes clears that the discussion took place on Thursday. (hat tip to EA readers for their assistance on this important point)

In other words, Ahmadinejad gave the statement welcoming discussions and offering the prospect of a suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment --- "If the fuel exchange is accomplished and we are assured that our 20 percent fuel [uranium] will be guaranteed, the situation will change" --- a day after the Supreme Leader had thundered:

If one side intends to act like a superpower, threatening the other side, putting it under pressure, and imposing sanctions on it — and showing an iron hand — and at the same time offering talks, this cannot be called talks. We will not hold such talks with anybody.

So is this a case of Khamenei the "bad cop" and Ahmadinejad the "good cop" as Tehran manoeuvres for position ahead of any discussions? Indeed, do the different statements point to private haggling --- directly or indirectly --- with Washington to set up some basis for public talks?

Or could it be that the Supreme Leader and the President are not exactly in agreement on the way forward?

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The Latest from Iran (19 August): Freedom & Detention

1520 GMT: Shutdown. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the blog of former Vice President Massoumeh Ebtekar has been filtered.

1510 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human rights activist Laleh Hassanpour, currently free from detention on bail, has been arraigned on new charges.

1505 GMT: Iran MediaWatch. Reporters Without Borders has condemned this week's closure of three newspapers, including the economic publication Asia and the imposition of a six-year sentence on Badrolsadat Mofidi, the secretary-general of the Association of Iranian Journalists.

RWB notes that more than 20 newspapers have been banned since the June 2009 election.

1455 GMT: A Friday Prayer Admission. Wow, it looks like Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Hojjatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi gave away a bit of nervousness today, at least in the account from Fars News:

Addressing a large and fervent congregation of people on Tehran University campus, Hojjatoleslam Sediqi called on Iranian officials and policy makers to close their ranks and get united.

Hojjatoleslam Sediqi further noted that lack of solidarity among special social strata is a problem which should be removed.

This line follows the one set by the Supreme Leader's speech on Wednesday (see analysis in separate entry), and it is effectively an open admissions of tensions within the Iranian Government.

1445 GMT: Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, & Nuke Talks. Oh, dear, some "Western" media are publishing before reflecting on President Ahmadinejad's supposed declaration to a Japanese newspaper (see 1145 GMT), headlined "Iran Says Might Halt High-Level Uranium Enrichment": both Reuters and Agence France Presse are promoting the story, and it is being pushed by outlets like the National Iranian American Council.

As we noted earlier, timing is critical here: if the interview took place before Wednesday, it has been superseded by the Supreme Leader's line of "Sanctions = No Talks". And no Iranian state media outlet is running the report; to the contrary, the fervent line of Press TV is that Iran will continue uranium enrichment in defiance of US objections.

1440 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Deutsche Welle is quoting Turkish newspapers that a delegation from the US State Department and Treasury have warned Ankara about trade with Iran.

1150 GMT: Tough Talk Today. Iranian Minister of Defense Ahmad Vahidi has said during today's Friday Prayers that Tehran has test-fired a new surface-to-surface missile, Qiam 1, "with new technical specifications and exceptional tactical powers". Footage was shown on state television, although it is unclear when the test took place.

On another front, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said Moscow does not plan to supply S-300 missiles to Iran: “We are not supplying anything. There is no decision on supplies.”

The S-300 deal has been held up for months amidst Western pressure on Russia to refrain from delivery of the missiles.

1145 GMT: Nuke Talks Confusion. Less than two days after the Supreme Leader ruled out an immediate resumption of discussions on Iran's uranium enrichment, the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun has quoted President Ahmadinejad, ''Iran is ready to resume [talks] in late August or in early September'' with the "5+1" powers (US, UK, France, Russia, China, Germany). Ahmadinejad supposedly added, "We promise to stop enriching uranium to 20 per cent if fuel supply is ensured."

Now, was the interview with Ahmadinejad conducted before Wednesday, which indicates that Ayatollah Khamenei vetoed the President's wish for resumed talks, or did it occur after Wednesday, which indicates that Ahmadinejad is still not on the same wavelength as the Supreme Leader?

Meanwhile, Islamic Republic News Agency claims that the director of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, has said --- citing the Supreme Leader's comments --- that the country will continue enrichment of uranium for nuclear plants despite Western objections.

1140 GMT: Oil Squeeze? US National Public Radio reports on the supply of oil from Iraq's Kurdistan into Iran, which continues despite sanctions.

0930 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Radio Zamaneh has more on Mehdi Karroubi's on-line discussion with readers this week, including the take-away quote: “People must decide whether they want a religious or non-religious government and they must be allowed to choose their own form of government....The republic aspect of the government must take precedence [over the religious aspect] and people’s will must be accepted.”

0925 GMT: On-Line. Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News website, which was down at the start of today, can again be accessed.

0801 GMT: Rumour of the Week. Earlier this week we noted chatter on social media about a "Basij attack on Mohsen Rezaei", former commander of the Revolutionary Guard, candidate in the 2009 Presidential election, and Secretary of the Expediency Council.

EA readers point us to the following from Rah-e-Sabz:

Media and eyewitnesses report that on the first night of the month of Ramadan (11 August) Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Assembly for the Discernment of Expedience and a critic of the government, was accosted by several people when he was about to participate in prayers for one of the nation's famous panegyrists (formal speaker).

Aftab News reports as Rezaei was entering the courtyard of Tehran's Ark Mosque to take part in panegyrics for Hajj Mansour Arzi, two steps inside the courtyard he was stopped along with his guards by Hoseyn Allah-Karam (a leader of the Ansar-e Hezbollah and of the plainclothes agents) and forced to sit on the ground.

The Jahan News site in a report, quoting one of those close to Mohsen Rezaei, wrote that Mohsen Rezaei was accosted by several people when he was about to attend a panegyrics session for Hajj Mansour Arzi.

Another reader sends us the link to the Jahan story. The claim is that the "attack" may have prompted by the criticism of Ahmadinejad chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

0800 GMT: We have posted an English translation of the full text of the Supreme Leader's speech on Wednesday and a snap analysis: there were important words not only on US-Iran relations but also on Iran's internal situation.

0630 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Ayatollah Dastgheib has urged that Iranians not be set against each other by dividing them into supporters and opponents of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority). He said that Iranian authorities had brought people's disillusionment with religion and isolated society from righteous clerics.

0625 GMT: The Hunger Strike. The last of 17 political prisoners who started a hunger strike at Evin Prison have now been removed from solitary confinement. Advar News reported that Abdollah Momeni, Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, and Keyvan Samimi were transferred to the general section of Evin on Tuesday night.

0619 GMT: Academic Corner. Citing health problems, Dr. Saeed Soharpour, the Chancellor of Sharif University, has resigned.

Soharpour will be replaced by Dr. Reza Roosta Azad, the Vice Chancellor of Research and a Professor of Chemical Engineering. Roosta Azad is a senior member of the central council of the Isargaran Society, which was co-founded by President Ahmadinejad.

In an interview on Sunday with Fars News, Dr. Roosta Azad supported the ban on Mohammad Reza Shajarian's song of the famous prayer "Rabbana" by Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: "His actions during the recent sedition has upset people. Hence Seda-o-Sima [IRIB] is right to ban him on the national broadcasting network."

Two years ago, Sharif University was highlighted by Newsweek as "one of the world's best undergraduate colleges".

0615 GMT: We have posted a separate feature pointing to an Obama Administration effort, via The New York Times, to dampen down talk of an Israeli airstrike on Iran.

0545 GMT: We awake this morning to find that Mehdi Karroubi's Saham News appears to have been shut down by Iranian authorities. The message, "Forbidden: You don't have permission to access /index.php on this server," greets anyone who tries to access the homepage.

Turkey's Israel "Problem": Analysing the Supposed Threat from Washington (Yenidunya)

On Tuesday, a Ramallah resident, Nadim Injaz, entered the Turkish Embassy in Tel Aviv and triedto take one of the employees hostage with a knife and what later turned out to be a toy gun. After a standoff of several hours, he was shot in the legs and hospitalised.

Fatah issued an official statement denying that Injaz had been employed by the Palestinian Authority: "He is a drug dealer who lives in Tel Aviv under official Israel protection." Israeli police confirmed that Injaz collaborated with Israel's security services in the past.

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After the incident, a Turkish diplomatic source told Turkish daily Hurriyet: “This incident has proven that there is a security weakness. The results of Tuesday’s attack would have been worse if our security personnel had not been able to act in time."

The Turkish comment comes after a Financial Times report of a warning from President Obama to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the US cut off military supplies unless Ankara eased the friction in its foreign policy towards Israel.

Responses from Washington complicated the situation. White House Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton denied the news:

The President and Erdogan did speak about 10 days ago and they talked about Iran and the flotilla and other issues related to that. But we obviously have an ongoing dialogue with them. But no such ultimatum was issued.There’s no ultimatum.

Then a senior Obama administration official, quoted by the FT, "clarified":

The president has said to [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan that some of the actions that Turkey has taken have caused questions to be raised on the Hill [Congress] . . . about whether we can have confidence in Turkey as an ally.

On Wednesday, the Turkish side denied the original report. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Turkey's Zaman: "No country can warn Turkey. No one can display such a stance towards the Turkish Prime Minister."

President Abdullah Gul  said: "There are no problems in ties with the US. The Turkey that some had grown accustomed to no longer exists. Instead, there is a Turkey that plays a central role in many processes. There are those who are confused by this."

However, on the same day, Erdogan said there could be problems with weapon sales because of the US Congress.  He added that "such matters are internal in every country" and that Turkey is capable of manufacturing many of the armaments.

After this confusion, a Turkish committee headed by Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu and Deputy Undersecretaries Selim Yenel and Tacan Ildem will be going to Washington, according to diplomatic sources. Iran's nuclear programme, Afghanistan, Iraq, and relations with Israel are expected to be on the agenda.

Ankara's message is clear: "Our goals are same but strategies may be different. Turkey's axis is not shifting; we are just looking for relative autonomy." The request to the Obama Administration will beto help Ankara fix its image in the Congress.